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  • UFC Fight Night 82 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

    Another week, another UFC fight card, this time coming from Las Vegas, Nevada. UFC Fight Night 82 is headlined by a welterweight bout between Johny Hendricks and Stephen Thompson, and below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when making your DraftKings line-up for the event.

    STUDS

    Mickey Gall ($10,900)

    It seems odd that putting a fighter with a 1-0 record making his UFC debut as a top play for fantasy, but Mickey Gall is a top play on this card. He’s fighting Mike Jackson, who is making his professional debut and hasn’t had an amateur MMA fight in some time (he has done boxing and kickboxing bouts though). Gall has a date set against C.M. Punk should he get past Jackson, and he should. Gall doesn’t have the technical skills that make him ready for UFC competition, which is why he gets a debut opponent. This fight is set up for Gall to get a win and move onto Punk, and he probably score a finish as well. Gall is a solid play on the day.

    Ovince Saint Preux ($10,700)

    Ovince Saint Preux is looking to rebound from a disappointing loss to Glover Teixeira in August, and he has a perfect match-up against Rafael Cavalcante on Saturday night. Cavalcante has seemed to regress over the years due to drug suspensions and injuries, and he either knocks his opponent out or gets knocked out. Saint Preux hasn’t suffered a knockout loss in over six years, and he’s much more talented now. Saint Preux is a finisher, winning his last five fights by finish, and he’s got the reach, height and overall advantage over Cavalcante. He likely finishes him inside of two rounds, so he is a very good play on the night.

    VALUE PLAYS

    Stephen Thompson ($9,000)

    Stephen Thompson is rising in the welterweight division, winning five straight fights and looking very impressive in them. He gets the biggest test of his career against Johny Hendricks in the main event, and he has some good value at his salary. That has to do with the bout going five rounds, and I see it going the full 25 minutes. Whether he can win is the big question as Hendricks will likely do enough on the feet and get takedowns to win. Thompson can win the fight if he can keep it on the feet, but that’s a question. I see him as a risk, but he has excellent value in a fight that can go 25 minutes.

    Justin Scoggins ($8,900)

    Justin Scoggins has a tough fight against Ray Borg, but both are solid prospects in the flyweight division who have exciting fights. Scoggins has been a finisher in his career, scoring seven of his ten wins by finish. He only has one UFC win by finish, and Borg is a tough fighter to finish. The difference in salaries between the two seems a little long, but Borg has been on a solid streak lately while Scoggins is just 1-2 in his last three. His salary makes him a good value pick as he has a good chance at scoring an upset over Borg and it will allow you to spend bigger for your roster.

    FIGHTERS TO AVOID

    Artem Lobov ($9,800)

    Artem Lobov scored a whopping one point in his UFC debut against Ryan Hall. Over the course of 15 minutes, he landed two significant strikes. That is it. He is not a UFC caliber fighter, but he gets a second chance against Alex White. It is less than two months after the bout against Hall and in a lower weight class. White is just 1-2 in the UFC, but won his first ten career fights and nine came by stoppage. Lobov is durable and likely won’t be finished, but I don’t see much upside in him or him even getting the win. I recommend avoiding him at all costs.

    Mike Pyle ($9,400)

    Mike Pyle is a veteran fighter, but as he has just turned 40-years-old, it is likely that his career has seen better days. He has lost three of his last four fights, and he was finished quickly in two of those losses. He faces Sean Spencer on Saturday night, and Spencer is a grinder type fighter who can be a sneaky finisher. He hasn’t finished anyone inside the Octagon yet, though, but Pyle’s chin may not be what is used to be. At worst, it will be a grinding affair and Spencer will have the advantage if it goes to the scorecards. Pyle will be a fighter we will be avoiding in our line-ups.

    OUR LINE-UPS

    RYAN FREDERICK- Mickey Gall ($10,900), Ovince Saint Preux ($10,700), Johny Hendricks ($10,400), K.J. Noons ($9,300), Zach Makovsky ($8,600)

    I’m going with Mickey Gall to finish Mike Jackson. There isn’t a lot of research you can do one a guy with one professional bout and two amateur bouts, but the fight is what it is, and I think he gets the finish of Jackson. Ovince Saint Preux has huge upside in his fight against Rafael Cavalcante. Saint Preux is a finisher and he should get one against a fading opponent. Johny Hendricks was a tough choice, but I think the main event goes the distance and he gets the decision on a lot of takedowns, and those score points. K.J. Noons hits hard and with a lot of volume, and Josh Burkman has been a huge disappointment in his UFC return. Noons has a very good chance of getting a finish of Burkman, who has been finished in his last two fights. With my remaining salary, I’m going with Zach Makovsky. Honestly, I don’t think he will beat Joseph Benavidez, but I don’t see him getting finished, which says a lot about the rest of the fighters left with the remaining salary I had. Just going 15 minutes, however the fight goes, should get me more than the rest of the bunch.

    PAUL FONTAINE- Ray Borg ($10,500), Johny Hendricks ($10,400), Damian Grabowski ($9,700), Artem Lobov ($9,800), KJ Noons ($9,300)

    If last week is any indication, your best bet is probably to pick the opponents of everyone on my team. That said, it’s a new week so let’s try this again. Hendricks has lost two fights in the last 5 years and both of those were questionable. He’s a lock in my book to either score an early KO or win a grinding decision in which he lands a lot of strikes.  Grabowski is making his UFC debut but is very experienced and a submission expert. I like him to score a quick stoppage win over Derrick Lewis. Ray Borg has finishing ability at 125, rare for the division. At just 22, he’s a future title challenger and this could be his coming out party. Lobov has a lot of power for the featherweight division and his opponent, Alex White, is susceptible to the KO. After his embarrassing performance at the TUF finale, I like Lobov to rebound here. Noons is a KO specialist and I think the weight cut is going to affect his opponent Josh Burkman more. Burkman hasn’t won since returning to UFC and I don’t think that will change here. 

    PEACH MACHINE- Ovince Saint Preux ($10,700), Johny Hendricks ($10,400), Artem Lobov ($9,800), Derrick Lewis ($9,700), Jared Rosholt ($9,200)

    Another 4-1 week last week. I like my picks again, but this time I went with a couple of heavyweights from which I usually shy away. Derrick Lewis is a monster and I’m banking on an early KO… Same thing with Rosholt. Nelson has lost three in a row and while his heart will still be there, his chin won’t… OSP should be able to take Cavalcante down and beat him that way. That’s the template to win. Should OSP decide to make this a stand up battle, that’s trouble for him… Hendricks better be on his game or he’s done at 170. I’m thinking he’ll get inside and touch Thompson’s chin and get the finish at some point in five rounds… The template to beat Lobov is Ryan Hall. Alex White is not Ryan Hall. Lobov by KO.

  • UFC Fight Night 81 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

    The Octagon makes its’ way back to Boston, Massachusetts for UFC Fight Night 81 on Sunday night, airing on FOX Sports 1. It is the second event of the month of January, and another opportunity for daily fantasy players to score some profit. Below are our studs, value plays, fighters to avoid and our advice for you in setting your line-ups.

    STUDS

    Charles Rosa ($10,800)

    Charles Rosa might just be 1-2 in the UFC, but he has been impressive in all three bouts. His debut was a close loss to Dennis Siver in a short-notice bout. He came back to submit Sean Soriano before dropping a close split decision to Yair Rodriguez in June. Having been born in Massachusetts, Rosa is back fighting in front of a home crowd and looking to score an impressive win. He will fight Kyle Bochniak, who takes the fight on three days’ notice. That is a lot to ask of someone, much less a fighter who just fought last week. This is set up for Rosa to get a win, and props to Bochniak for stepping to keep Rosa on the card, but Rosa should be getting a finish here, and is our top play because of the circumstances surrounding the fight.

    Rob Font ($10,600)

    Rob Font is another local fighter on the card, having been born, living and training in Boston. He is a good prospect at 135 pounds with an 11-1 record and ten straight wins. He has been out of action for a long time, not having fought since scoring a first-round knockout of George Roop in his UFC debut in July 2014. That performance, though, showed what he is certainly capable of delivering inside the Octagon. He has well-rounded skills, and he fights an opponent making his UFC debut as an injury replacement in Joey Gomez. Gomez is 6-0 in his career but has yet to have the exposure of the big stage. Font’s striking should be enough to score a finish, and he is a good bet to score a lot of points on Sunday.

    VALUE PLAYS

    Matt Mitrione ($9,200)

    Matt Mitrione looks to have something to prove as he heads into the last fight of his contract on Sunday night. That makes him a good contrarian pick for the event. He is fighting Travis Browne, who comes in as the favorite, but there are a lot of question marks surrounding Browne, especially how he comes back from his last loss and whether the distractions of dating Ronda Rousey get to him. Mitrione is good on his feet and quicker than Browne, but he does make mistakes that cost him fights. It is heavyweights and a finish is likely. Mitrione at his price makes him an interesting value.

    Sean O’Connell ($8,500)

    Sean O’Connell is a sneaky play at his $8,500 salary. He has won two straight fights by knockout, including a 56-second win in his last fight. He lost his first two UFC fights, but one was a short-notice bout and the other was a split decision. He scores a good amount of points in his fights, and 205-pound fighters have a lot of power. He faces a tough opponent in Ilir Latifi, who has won all three of his UFC fights by finish in the first round. He was also finished recently in the first round. If you are looking for a fighter with a low salary so you can play contrarian and spend up, O’Connell is of solid value.

    AVOID

    Francimar Barroso ($10,000)

    Francimar Barroso is 2-1 in the UFC, but all three fights have gone the distance and he hasn’t been overly impressive. He is a grinder who doesn’t land a lot of strikes and leaves himself open for counters. He is fighting a short-notice opponent in Elvis Mutapcic, and Mutapcic is taking the fight in a higher weight class. Mutapcic is talented, though, and he has a very good chance of defeating Barroso. He also has a style that can beat Barroso. Short notice or not, I give Mutapcic a good chance of winning, therefore I am fading from Barroso.

    Daron Cruickshank ($8,700)

    Daron Cruickshank is an exciting lightweight fighter, but he has hit a real rough patch in recent UFC bouts. Eye pokes, rough weight cuts and tough competition has seen him win just once in his last five fights, and his back is against the wall. Also with his back against the wall is his opponent, Paul Felder. Felder is more talented of the two, and there will be a lot of strikes thrown. Felder has the better shot at finishing Cruickshank, and a distance fight favors Felder as well. I will be shying away from Cruickshank on my roster.

    OUR LINEUPS:

    RYAN FREDERICK: Charles Rosa ($10,800), Rob Font ($10,600), Travis Browne ($10,200), Dominick Cruz ($9,300), Francisco Trinaldo ($9,100)

    I have Charles Rosa and Rob Font as my two big plays for this card. Both are local fighters who will be willed to win in front of the home fans, and both are fighting short-notice opponents. I like both winning by finish and getting maximum points. I have Travis Browne despite thinking Matt Mitrione is good value. Someone is getting finished in that bout, and Browne is too naturally talented to look as bad as he did against Andrei Arlovski. Dominick Cruz is my interesting play. I am picking T.J. Dillashaw to win, but I’m not confident on that. It is five rounds, which means ten more minutes to score points, and I think they are going the distance. Cruz is good value for his salary. My last pick is Francisco Trinaldo. He has won four straight, has good value, and fights a beatable Ross Pearson. He is a good contrarian pick.

    PAUL FONTAINE: Ilir Latifi ($10,900), Rob Font ($10,600), Travis Browne ($10,200), Francisco Trinaldo ($9,100), Daron Cruickshank ($8,700)

    Gotta be honest….I’m not really thrilled with my team this week. I went through and picked the probable winners and finishers and I just couldn’t work them all in under the cap so I had to make some tough choice. Browne is clearly a class above Matt Mitrione and as long as the out of the cage stuff he’s been dealing with aren’t too much of a distraction, he should finish Mitrione fairly quickly. Trinaldo is an often overlooked fighter who is a submission specialist and has won 4 in a row. Pearson is tough but he’s taken a lot of punishment and is due to start showing the effects of his age and the damage over the year. Cruickshank is the one I’m not terribly thrilled with having on my team but he’s got power and could score a KO at any point, although his opponent Paul Felder has never been finished. Latifi has first round finishes in each of his last 3 fights and I think he overpowers Sean O’Connell en route to another quick win. Font-Gomez could be a sleeper fight as both are finishers that usually get the job done quickly. Gomez is making his Octagon debut and could have some jitters so I look for that to be the difference here and Font should wipe that “0” from Gomez’ record. 

    PEACH MACHINE: Anthony Pettis ($11,000), Paul Felder ($10,700), Ben Saunders ($9,800), Dominick Cruz ($9,300), Ed Herman ($8,900)

    I think Cruz is too smart and too good to get beat by Dillashaw. All Dominick Cruz does is alternate between getting better and breaking his knee, and his knee is healthy. I like Pettis to rebound and smash Alvarez. I like Alvarez, but I think Pettis is too fast. I’m taking Herman because Boetsch is coming off a bad KO. So is Herman, but I think Boetsch is closer to being done than making a run. Saunders has a lot of reach here. Cote’s fighting age is much greater than 35. I like Saunders to get this to the ground and get the submission. Felder is a killer and has a tough out in Cruickshank, but Felder is tougher and younger and is looking to get back into that win column. I like my picks again this week. I went 4-1 in my DK picks last week, and 11-1 in my tapology picks. Good enough for number 2 over all in tapology. Am I bragging? Yes. Will I ever get another chance to brag at this level? Unlikely. Holtzman blew my perfect pick night. It’s my fault for believing in someone. 

  • UFC 195 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

    The UFC kicks off 2016 on Saturday with UFC 195 from Las Vegas. It also marks the second year of UFC action on DraftKings, and they are celebrating with a big contest. Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid in helping you set your line-ups for this weekend’s big event.

    STUDS

    Michael McDonald ($11,000)

    Michael McDonald is the biggest favorite and has the highest salary of all of the fighters on the UFC 195 card, and for good reason. Despite being out of action for just over two years, McDonald is still one of the best bantamweights in the world, with knockout power and good submission skills. He is still young at just 24-years-old. He gets a fairly beatable test in his return to action in Masanori Kanehara. Kanehara hasn’t shown to be much of a threat at 135 pounds yet, and is a journeyman fighter of 42 career bouts, but just two in the UFC. He also doesn’t have the most impressive record. This fight is set up as a perfect bounce back for McDonald, and we expect him to get the job done quickly.

    Brian Ortega ($10,300)

    Brian Ortega is a rising featherweight with an undefeated record, and he gets showcased on the main card of UFC 195 as the UFC looks to build his resume. It will be another tough bout for him as he takes on former TUF winner Diego Brandao. Ortega passed a tough test in finishing Thiago Tavares in his last fight, but he was pushed to the limit. Brandao will be a foe that pushes him to the limit too. However, Brandao tends to crack under pressure, and Ortega will bring the pressure. Brandao has never put it together against a top opponent, and while Ortega isn’t there yet, he will be one day. I like Ortega’s chances of finishing Brandao, and he’s a good pick at his salary.

    VALUE PLAYS

    Dustin Poirier ($8,800)

    It is surprising that Dustin Poirier is as big of an underdog as he is to Joseph Duffy, and his salary shows that. I actually think the betting line should be closer, but to his credit, Duffy is 14-1 in his career while Poirier is 6-3 in his last nine fights. Poirier has looked outstanding since making the move up to 155 pounds with two first-round finishes, and his striking has looked crisp. Poirier is a finisher and so is Duffy. It is rare for a higher-ranked fighter to be an underdog, and with Duffy being the one to pull out the last time they were scheduled to fight, that could provide Poirier more motivation to finish Duffy. I like Poirier at his salary.

    Kyle Noke ($8,500)

    This is one everyone should be taking advantage of. When the salaries were originally released for the event, Kyle Noke was scheduled to fight Kelvin Gastelum. He was a big underdog, and his salary reflected that. Gastelum, however, was forced out of the fight. Noke now fights Alex Morono, and DraftKings policy is to not change salaries after they are released, so Noke retains his low salary. With him fighting an opponent making his UFC debut on short notice, Noke is actually a big favorite in the fight. He is coming off a first-round finish of Peter Sobotta in his last bout. With his salary remaining low, Noke should be a must-play on your roster.

    AVOID

    Sheldon Westcott ($10,200)

    Sheldon Westcott is still in search of his first UFC win, and he finds himself in a must-win situation in the opener of UFC 195. His opponent, Edgar Garcia, is in the same position. The loser of the bout is likely cut from the promotion. Westcott hasn’t been impressive during his time inside the Octagon and isn’t a fighter who racks up a lot of points during his bouts. He may get the win over Garcia, but he doesn’t strike me as someone who will maximize value at his salary. I will be avoiding him in my line-ups.

    Nina Ansaroff ($8,700)

    Nina Ansaroff has an umimpressive 6-4 record in her career, but she has won five of her last six bouts. She did lose her UFC debut to Juliana Lima, and had her last fight cancelled the day of the fight when she fell ill during rehydration. She missed weight for that scheduled fight against Rose Namajunas. She makes her return against Justine Kish, a 4-0 strawweight making her UFC debut after dealing with a knee injury. Kish is a solid fighter and a big favorite, and she should get the win. With that, I’m fading Ansaroff in my line-ups.

    OUR LINEUPS:

    RYAN FREDERICK: Michael McDonald ($11,000), Stipe Miocic ($10,500), Brian Ortega ($10,300), Dustin Poirier ($8,800), Kyle Noke ($8,500)

    I like Michael McDonald to get an impressive and quick finish in his UFC return. Stipe Miocic has a good salary and I think he finishes Andrei Arlovski. He is also a volume striker with good takedowns and will come at Arlovski a lot while the fight lasts. Brian Ortega should get the finish of Diego Brandao. I like Dustin Poirier against Joseph Duffy at his salary. Finally, I’m going with Kyle Noke. His salary is too good to pass up against a late replacement who will come in overmatched. I’m sensing all five of these guys winning, and winning by stoppage.

    PAUL FONTAINE: Joseph Duffy ($10,600), Albert Tumenov ($10,100), Abel Trujillo ($10,000), Robbie Lawler ($9,800), Andrei Arlovski ($8,900)

    Robbie Lawler and Carlos Condit should have a war with a ton strikes thrown and someone getting KO’d. My money’s on the champion here. Arlovski is a bit of a chance but if he connects, Miocic could get dropped early and Miocic has had a tendency to choke when he gets close to a title shot, as he is now. Tumenov is one of the most underrated fighters in any weight class, although not here by the people that sest the Draft Kings salaries. I like the Russian to ring up his fifth straight UFC win as he marches toward the top 10. Trujillo is either going to get knocked out or knock someone out and I think this is his turn to do the latter. Sims looked good in his UFC debut against Steve Montgomery but not so much in his follow-up fight. I like Trujillo to come out with an early blitz and finish Sims. My last pick may be the fight I’m most looking forward to and that’s Joseph Duffy. I love this fight and I think either guy could win but I think the extra size and power  of the Irishman is going to come into play here and end up with a 3rd straight stoppage win for the last man to beat Featherweight Champion Conor McGregor (couldn’t get through this without saying that!). 

    PEACH MACHINE: Scott Holtzman ($10,400), Albert Tumenov ($10,100), Abel Trujillo ($10,000), Robbie Lawler ($9,800), Dustin Poirier ($8,800)

    I love Lawler to light up Condit big time and score mega points en route to a late stoppage. Poirier is gonna waffle this kid. Just because he’s Irish, everyone’s super into Duffy. DP is gonna stick a potato in his ear. Holtzman is a late replacement but he’s been training solidly for a fight since his first tilt in August and actually asked for a match on short notice. I saw him live in August and just saw him train in Glendale. He’s going to be too fast for Dober and get a finish. Tumenov is going to ground and pound Larkin for three rounds. Trujillo will bounce back from a loss and smash Tony Sims. I’m actually feeling pretty good about my picks this week. 

  • UFC On FOX 17 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

    The UFC ends 2015 with an event in Orlando, Florida on FOX, headlined by a UFC Lightweight Championship bout between champion Rafael Dos Anjos and challenger Donald Cerrone. It is one last time to make some money playing daily fantasy for MMA in 2015, and below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid as well as our own line-ups for Saturday’s event.

    STUDS

    C.B. Dollaway ($10,800)

    C.B. Dollaway is looking to end a two-fight losing skid when he takes on Nate Marquardt. Marquardt is on quite the skid himself, losing five of his last six fights. Marquardt’s chin has also seemingly seen better days, and he has trouble taking a punch these days. Dollaway has never been known as a knockout artist, but he has some power. Dollaway is still a top-ten caliber talent while Marquardt’s days challenging for titles are long gone. Dollaway should get a win and has a very good chance for a finish.

    Kamaru Usman ($10,200)

    Kamaru Usman won season 21 of “TUF” for the Blackzilians camp and looked impressive in doing so. He has been very impressive in his short MMA career as well, with all six of his career wins coming by stoppage. He has good power in his hands and some solid submission skills, and he trains with one of the top camps in the sport. He has a tough challenge in Leon Edwards ahead of him, but I like Usman to continue his impressive career start.

    VALUE PLAYS

    Valentina Shevchenko ($8,800)

    Valentina Shevchenko is making her UFC debut on short notice against a tough challenge in Sarah Kaufman, but she has the skills to score a big upset. Shevchenko is better on the feet than Kaufman and has a ton of kickboxing experience, with a 60-2 record to go with her 9-1 MMA record. The biggest key for her is to keep the fight upright, but she has good takedown defense. She has the biggest shot to score an upset, and at her salary, that makes her a good play to where you can spend up on your line-up.

    Nate Diaz ($8,300)

    Nate Diaz has the lowest salary of all of the fighters on the card, and with someone of his popularity and skills, that almost seems like an insult. He does have a tough opponent in Michael Johnson, but Johnson’s struggles in his MMA career have been against fighters like Diaz. Diaz is a volume striker with dangerous submissions, and he can suck opponents into his game. He does look in excellent condition and has something to prove. At his salary, he definitely can upset Johnson, and is worth a look for your line-up.

    AVOID

    Nik Lentz ($9,700)

    Nik Lentz is moving back up to lightweight on Saturday for a bout with Danny Castillo, but he is still small for the division. He is a good wrestler, but he isn’t overly impressive with all of his aspects. He does enough to score wins, but that may not be enough against Castillo, who definitely has his back against the wall. Lentz just isn’t enough of a difference maker to make me wanna use him, so I suggest avoiding him.

    Nate Marquardt ($8,600)

    His opponent, C.B. Dollaway, is listed above as a stud, and Marquardt is the one fighter I would avoid on the card whether I was making just one line-up or a hundred. I don’t like his chances against Dollaway, and I think he gets finished. Even if the fight goes the distance, Marquardt just hasn’t shown enough in recent years to make you think he has what it takes to score a lot of fantasy points. It just doesn’t seem like it will be his night.

    OUR LINE-UPS

    RYAN FREDERICK: Junior Dos Santos ($10,900), C.B. Dollaway ($10,800), Josh Samman ($10,300), Donald Cerrone ($8,900), Nate Diaz ($8,300)

    I like Junior Dos Santos to score a knockout win over Alistair Overeem. Dos Santos has taken some beatings but perhaps the time off has freshened him up. He looks good right now and Overeem seems to have lost something coming in for various reasons. Dos Santos still has big power. I like Dollaway to finish Nate Marquardt. I like Josh Samman at his salary. He has three UFC wins, all by finish, and is very good. He has a tough fight against Tamdan McCrory, but is a finishable fight. I like Nate Diaz to score an upset over Michael Johnson, and to win by submission. Finally, I’m going with Donald Cerrone. I think he wins, and he wins by decision. With the thinking it will go five rounds, that is two extra rounds to score more points, and a decision win scores the same whether it goes three or five rounds. The two extra rounds benefits you in scoring more points, and I always try to take a fighter in a five-round fight.

    PAUL FONATINE: Junior Dos Santos ($10,900), Josh Samman ($10,300), Kamaru Usman ($10,200), Cole Miller ($9,600), Donald Cerrone ($8,900)

    Dos Santos is at least a level above Overeem, maybe 2. After a five round war with the very tough Stipe Miocic, this will be like a walk in the park for the former champ. One good shot and Overeem should go down, likely very early in the first. Samman has been a steamroller since losing on TUF to Kelvin Gastelum. McCrory is a nice story but he’s not going to be enough to stop Samman. Usman won the final match in the TUF 21 show to win the competition for his team. That was his fifth straight stoppage win and he should make it 6 over the overmatched Edwards. It seems like destiny that Donald Cerrone will win the lightweight title and then go on to face Conor McGregor in his first title defense. I see this going a lot like the Aldo/McGregor fight actually as the PED crackdown has had a noticeable effect on the physique of the current champion. I’m going with the veteran Cole Miller for my last pick. He’s usually good for a stoppage win and his opponent Alers was lucky not to have lost both of his UFC fights to date, taking a split decision in the opener before losing his second fight earlier this year. 

    PEACH MACHINE: Junior Dos Santos ($10,900), Myles Jury ($10,000), Danny Castillo ($9,700), Karolina Kowalkiewicz ($9,000), Donald Cerrone ($8,900)

    I love Cerrone and I think RDA got lucky against Pettis.  Cerrone is gonna knock him out eventually.  It may take four and a half rounds but that head kick is coming.  JDS is still a monster and Overeem is done.  This is an easy pick for a KO.  Myles Jury hasn’t fought in a year and finds himself against a formidable opponent, but Jury has only lost once and that was to Cerrone.  More importantly, Oliveira is coming off a freak injury loss.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see him come out a little gun shy.  I’m taking Castillo because Nik Lentz sucks and I hate how he spells his name.  Plus, Castillo has lost three in a row and will be motivated to win.  Kowalkiewicz is undefeated an I don’t think Markos is much of a fighter. As always, you’d probably be better just picking the opposite of me.  In a side note, I hope Dolloway and Marquardt both get cut.  I can’t believe we’re still watching these two clowns.  

    As you can see, we are all big fans of Junior Dos Santos and Donald Cerrone scoring wins on Saturday. Good luck to all of those playing!

  • UFC Fight Night 80 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

    UFC Fight Night 80 kicks off the biggest fight week in UFC history on Thursday night in Las Vegas. The event is headlined by a five-round women’s strawweight bout between Rose Namajunas and Paige VanZant. Below is our playbook for your daily fantasy line-ups, with our studs, value plays, and fighters to avoid.

    STUDS

    Sage Northcutt ($11,300)

    He is the biggest favorite on the card. He has the highest salary of the 24 fighters competing on the card. He has a ton of hype. He is only 19-years-old. He also happens to be our top play on this fight card. Sage Northcutt is looking for his seventh career win, and seventh win by stoppage. He put up massive points in his UFC debut at UFC 192. He has a soft opponent in Cody Pfister that looks to be a showcase for Northcutt. He is being put in a position to score an impressive win. Pfister has a lot of confidence and is showing a nothing to lose attitude, and that can be dangerous for Northcutt. However, Northcutt is primed to defeat the caliber of fighter that Pfister is. He will eventually have trouble, but, for now, you will want Northcutt in your line-ups.

    Elias Theodorou ($10,700)

    Elias Theodorou is another undefeated fighter looking to score an impressive win at UFC Fight Night 80. He has the fifth-highest salary, so using him will allow you to spend more on some good value. Theodorou has averaged 87.8 fantasy points in his UFC bouts, the second-highest of the 22 fighters who have had UFC bouts scored for fantasy. He has a tough opponent in Thiago Santos, but one that is primed for a win for Theodorou. Santos has been finished twice in his career and eats a lot of punches. Theodorou is going to be a very solid play in your line-ups.

    VALUE PLAYS

    Rose Namajunas ($9,200)

    Rose Namajunas is interesting on this card. She is an underdog and has a reasonable salary. The discrepancy in salaries between her and Paige VanZant is very interesting, and it makes Namajunas a solid value play allowing you to spend up in your line-ups. She has slick submissions and a very solid striking game, but she won’t be able to match the pressure and takedowns of VanZant. Her best bet is to catch VanZant on a takedown for a submission. It can happen, and honestly, the longer the fight goes, the more it may favor Namajunas. She is definitely worth a look at her salary.

    John Howard ($8,500)

    John Howard is also interesting on this card. He has a very low salary, especially for someone who has the power in his hands to end a fight at any moment. A lot of it has to do with having lost three straight fights prior to winning his last bout, and his opponent, Tim Means, being 6-2 in his last eight fights. Means is lanky and has good striking, but he can be rocked and finished. Howard has 15 stoppage wins, and when looking for some value, he is a fighter to really look at for your line-ups.

    AVOID

    Santiago Ponzinibbio ($10,500)

    Santiago Ponzinibbio is 20-3 in his MMA career and has scored eleven wins by knockout and six wins by submission. He has a decently high salary for UFC Fight Night 80, and most metrics point to him being someone you should use on your roster. However, I am avoiding him as I don’t think he has been overly impressive in his UFC career. He is just 2-2 inside the Octagon, and he was dominated and finished in his last bout by Lorenz Larkin. His opponent, Andreas Stahl, is 9-1 in his career, but is coming off a very long layoff. Stahl has yet to be finished, and both men haven’t shown the fire in the UFC. I’m avoiding both, but especially Ponzinibbio at his price.

    Phillipe Nover ($9,000)

    Phillipe Nover is in his second stint with the UFC, and he is coming off of his first UFC win in May in a split decision. He has won four straight fights, but he hasn’t been overly impressive in doing so. He goes to a decision whether he wins or loses more often than not, and he has a tough opponent in Zubaira Tukhugov. Tukhugov hasn’t fought in over 14 months, but he would actually be worth adding to your roster with his potential starting to show. Tough match-up, being one he is likely to be on the losing end of, means I’m keeping Nover away from my line-up.

    OUR LINE-UPS

    RYAN FREDERICK: Sage Northcutt ($11,300), Aljamain Sterling ($11,000), Paige VanZant ($10,200), Andreas Stahl ($8,900), John Howard ($8,500)

    I like Sage Northcutt the most to score a decisive first-round finish and maximize the most points on the card. He is a special fighter right now, and the match-up is perfect. Aljamain Sterling is also as close to a slam dunk win as there will be on the card, but he does have a tough fight against Johnny Eduardo. I think he gets a finish. While I have Rose Namajunas as a value play, I still see Paige VanZant scoring a lot of takedowns and significant strikes en route to a finish. Andreas Stahl and John Howard are sneaky plays at their prices with solid chances of scoring upsets, and they allowed me to spend big on the other three, hoping to score big.

    PAUL FONTAINE: Sage Northcutt ($11,300), Aljamain Sterling ($11,000), Paige VanZant ($10,200), Kevin Casey ($8,800), Thiago Santos ($8,700)

    It’s the Paige and Sage show so no way I’m having a team without the two darlings of MMA. Seriously though Paige probably lands more strikes than anyone in any division and this could be a five round fight. She also should have a size advantage so as long her  cardio doesn’t become a problem, she could pepper Rose with punches for 25 minutes, perhaps scoring a late finish. Sage is a bulldozer and nothing about what I’ve seen thus far from Cody Pfister makes me think it will stop here. Should be a quick finish for Zack Morris 2.0. I’m taking chances with Santos and Casey  but I like the chances. Santos has devastating KO power and will likely either get a quick win or be finished quickly, which could blow up in my face. I don’t think that Theodorou has the power to stand with him so all he needs is one good shot and to avoid the takedown or cage clinch. Casey hasn’t lost since his UFC debut (although he did have a result overturned). Carlos Junior is kind of a sloppy fighter and will likely either lose a decision or get knocked out. My final pick is an unbeaten fighter who I can’t believe is buried in the prelims in Aljamain Sterling. 3-0 in the UFC and 11-0 overall, he’s a virtual lock in my opinion and should score his 3rd straight finish here.

    PEACH MACHINE: Aljamain Sterling ($11,000), Tim Means ($10,900), Jim Miller ($9,700), Rose Namajunas ($9,200), Phillipe Nover ($9,000)

    I like Rose.  I think Paige is going to crack under the pressure and Rose is more experienced.  Miller is a bulldog and I’ve never been impressed with Chiesa.  I expect Miller to get inside and make it a war, and Chiesa has experience being finished.  Means did not look good in his last time out, but I expect him to rebound and use his reach to destroy the over matched Howard.  Aljamain Sterling is primed for a big win and hopefully this fight gets on the PPV portion of the show. Nover is a grinder and while I personally don’t like him, I think he’ll win since he looked pretty good in UFC re-debut.

    As you can tell, we all like Aljamain Sterling, and Sage Northcutt and Paige VanZant get a good amount of play. Good luck to all playing!

  • UFC Fight Night 78 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

    The Octagon travels to Monterrey, Mexico for UFC Fight Night 78 on Saturday night, the third straight weekend of UFC action, with a main event of welterweight action as Neil Magny takes on Kelvin Gastelum. Below are our studs of the night, our value picks of the night, and fighters you should avoid on the night to help fill out your DraftKings lineups.

    STUDS

    Kelvin Gastelum ($10,900)

    Kelvin Gastelum is coming into his headline bout against Neil Magny with a lot of expectations on his shoulders, and he is hoping to live up to them. He is a good play against Magny, who comes into the fight on short notice as an injury replacement. Magny is solid competition, but one who has faltered when faced with the high-level competition. Magny is ranked based on the fact he has gone 8-1 in his last nine fights, but that has been against unranked competition, aside from the loss to Demian Maia. In that loss to Maia, Magny was finished, like he has in three of his four losses. Gastelum is a pressure fighter who will land a lot of punches, as long as he can get inside Magny’s reach, and he has solid submission skills. On a card where there might be a lot of decisions, Gastelum is a good bet to score a finish.

    Andre Fili ($10,700)

    Andre Fili makes his return to the Octagon after being out of action for eight months when he takes on Gabriel Benitez. Fili has been up-and-down during his UFC tenure but he has the chance to make a run as a legitmate 145-pound prospect. He has been submitted in both of his UFC losses, but he has looked good in his UFC wins, landing a lot of punches and getting one finish. He has an opponent in Gabriel Benitez who has won both of his UFC bouts, but hasn’t looked too great against the lower competition. Fili is a big step up in competition. Fili has a good chance to get a lot of points and score a finish.

    VALUE PICKS

    Taylor Lapilus ($9,400)

    Taylor Lapilus is a fast-rising bantamweight prospect who will get the toughest test of his career when he takes on Erik Perez. Perez is coming off a 17-month layoff when he makes his return, and he is coming off of being submitted by Bryan Caraway. There are some holes in the skills of Perez, and Lapilus is someone who can exploit them. Lapilus has good power and a very solid submission game, and he is good value as his price. He has the tools to give Perez some fits during the fight, and the chance to rack up some points.

    Hector Urbina ($8,900)

    Hector Urbina is coming into his fight against Bartosz Fabinski as a big underdog despite having won his last two fights by stoppage. Fabinski has won five straight fights and has eight knockout wins in his career, but he didn’t look like someone who was looking to finish when he got his decision win over Garreth McLellan in his UFC debut. He is also going into enemy territory taking on Urbina in Mexico. Urbina comes from a good camp in American Top Team, and he has scored 15 of his 17 wins by stoppage. Urbina, at his salary, is a very solid play that gives you good opportunity to spend up on higher-priced fighters.

    AVOID

    Ricardo Lamas ($11,200)

    Ricardo Lamas is the biggest favorite on this card and thus has the highest salary on the card. That makes it seem like he is a sure bet to win. However, he is fighting Diego Sanchez. Sanchez initiates brawls that make the job of the judges hard. He wins fights he probably should lose on the scorecards, and they are always too close for comfort. Sanchez is also extremely tough to finish, as only B.J. Penn has been able to do so, and that was due to a huge cut. Sanchez is coming off a long layoff and is making the move down to featherweight, and Lamas is a tough opponent for his first time out. Sanchez’ style and relentless aggression make it hard for me to suggest using Lamas, so I am avoiding him and spending my money elsewhere.

    Jussier Formiga ($8,300)

    Jussier Formiga has the second-cheapest salary for all of the fighters on the card when he takes on Henry Cejudo. For being ranked third in his division, not many are giving him much of a chance against Cejudo on Saturday night. There is good reason for that as Formiga has faltered against top-level competition, and he doesn’t score a lot of points in fantasy games as it is. He will likely be taken down a lot and probably will eat a lot of punches, and probably won’t be able to land a lot of punches either. He probably won’t be able to finish Cejudo either, much less defeat him. Only use Formiga if you are in a must-need situation as I will avoid him.

    OUR LINE-UPS

    RYAN FREDERICK- Henry Cejudo ($11,100), Kelvin Gastelum ($10,900), Vernon Ramos ($10,300), Hector Urbina ($8,900), Erick Montano ($8,800)

    I like Kelvin Gastelum and Hector Urbina for the reasons I stated above. I see them as having good chances at scoring finish wins in the early rounds, primarily by submission. I like Henry Cejudo to get a win, and he wants that title shot. He has an opponent in Jussier Formiga who can be finished, and Cejudo will be looking to score takedowns and finish it with ground-and-pound. Vernon Ramos is coming off of “TUF: Latin America 2” and has just three professional fights, but all three have been submission wins, and he gets an opponent who hasn’t fought since 2012. Erick Montano is a finalist of “TUF: Latin America 2”, and while he is the underdog against Enrique Marin, he has scored all six of his wins by stoppage, with five in the first round, and both of his wins on the show came by first-round stoppage. I like him at his cheap salary.

    PAUL FONTAINE- Ricardo Lamas ($11,200), Henry Cejudo ($11,100), Efrain Escudero ($9,500), Alejandro Perez ($9,200), Gabriel Benitez ($8,700)

    Lamas is about as close to a lock as there is on this card. Sanchez is WAY beyond his prime and would have losses in 4 of his last 5 fights if any of the judges had  actually watched his fight with Ross Pearson. Lamas has only lost to the champion Jose Aldo and #2 contender Chad Mendes in the last 4 1/2 years. He should make quick work of Sanchez here. Henry Cejudo has a tough test in Jussier Formiga who will be in a title eliminator for the third time. But Cejudo is trying to earn a title shot so expect him to win and in impressive fashion. He should land a lot of strikes in a 3 round war and score the win. Alejandro Perez is one of the top Mexican prospects and looks to be in somewhat of a showcase fight against Scott Jorgensen, who has lost 5 of his last 6 fights and may not be long for this sport. I’m taking a bit of a chance on Gabriel Benitez but he is on a 2 fight win streak and is  used to fighting in Mexico (which could be a big factor here). His opponent, Andre Fili, has a mediocre UFC record although he is the more expensive fighter  for your roster. My last pick is veteran Efrain Escudero who has won two straight since losing in his UFC return last year. He has looked great, even in that loss, and will be cheered on by the Mexican crowd and should be able to score a win over the Brazilian Leandro Silva.

    PEACH MACHINE- Ricardo Lamas ($11,200), Kelvin Gastelum ($10,900), Leandro Silva ($9,900), Alejandro Perez ($9,200), Gabriel Benitez ($8,700)

    I like Gastelum.  I think he’s going to dominate Magny, but it could take all five rounds, so I’m predicting big points from Gastelum.  I don’t like Escudero.  He’s really inconsistent and disappointing.  I’m taking Silva to beat him.  Ricardo Lamas and Sanchez are going to have a war.  I think Sanchez is done but will be a hard out.  I’m making the same argument against Jorgensen.  He’s done but will be a tough out for Perez.  Benitez over Fili.  I’m not convinced Fili is any good.

  • UFC 193 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

    It’s the second straight weekend for a UFC event, and more chances to cash in if you play Draft Kings. UFC 193 comes our way on Saturday night from Melbourne, Australia, with two title fights and the two most dominant women in their respective weight classes defending their championships. Below are our studs, value plays, and fighters to avoid to help you fill out your UFC 193 DraftKings lineups:

    STUDS

    Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($11,300)

    I could easily pick both Ronda Rousey and Joanna Jedrzejczyk to occupy these two stud slots, but for the sake of the article, I’m only going one. I suggest you draft both, and it is possible to draft both and keep a solid team as I will show you later. I expect Rousey to win quickly, but she may have a much harder time, so I’m putting Jedrzejczyk as my top stud for this event. She has dynamic striking and lands a lot of significant strikes, and her opponent, Valerie Letourneau, leaves herself open to eat a lot of punches. Jedrzejczyk has underrated takedown ability as well, and she looks to finish every second of the fight. I sense both women getting early finishes, which grabs a lot of points. Jedrzejczyk’s significant striking ability will likely net more points for you, and that could make up a big difference. Do yourself a favor- draft both, or if you only wanna stick with one, I’d go Jedrzejczyk over Rousey, but only slightly.

    Uriah Hall ($9,800)

    Uriah Hall is coming off the biggest win of his career when he knocked out Gegard Mousasi in September. He took that fight on short notice and takes another short notice bout against Robert Whittaker on Saturday at UFC 193. He looks like he is finally living up to his potential, and he gets a stout test in Whittaker. Whittaker can be finished in his career, as evidenced to his February 2014 loss to Stephen Thompson. Hall is a similar striker to Thompson and could give Whittaker the same type of fits with his kicks. Hall is flashy and likes the spin kick, much like Thompson displayed against Whittaker. I hope that is a fight Hall watched over and over in preparation. Hall can be an enigma at times, as there have been moments when he hasn’t lived up to expectations. With the recent performance against Mousasi, he seems mentally into it and another big win could be coming his way on Saturday. He has a good chance at scoring a finish.

    VALUE PICKS

    Dan Kelly ($9,000)

    I’ll admit there aren’t a lot of value plays on this card. I expect a lot of the favorites with high salaries to win here. There are a couple of solid value picks, and one of them is Dan Kelly. Yes, he was involved in arguably the worst fight in the UFC in 2015 against Patrick Walsh. Yes, he lost in under a minute in his last bout. However, he has scored seven wins by stoppage in his career, including a first-round submission win in his UFC debut. He fights Steve Montgomery, who is coming off being finished in the first round in his UFC debut. Kelly is worth taking a chance on, especially if you wanna go after some of the higher salary fighters on the card.

    Anton Zafir ($8,800)

    Anton Zafir is making his UFC debut on Saturday on short notice, being an injury fill-in and taking his debut fight against James Moontasri on eight days’ notice. Zafir was being targeted for the UFC roster in the near future and was headed to the event to meet with UFC officials on what he needed to do to get on the roster. Luckily for him, a spot opened up and his UFC signing came sooner than expected. He is inexperienced, having fought just eight times, but he has won seven of those, and six of the wins have come by stoppage. His opponent, Moontasri, is coming off being finished in the first round in his last fight. Plus, Moontasri is also taking the fight as an injury replacement, though he had adequate training time, but he is also moving up in weight for this fight. Zafir is another solid option for those wanting to spend on bigger names.

    AVOID

    Antonio Silva ($8,900)

    I’m avoiding Antonio Silva as much as possible at this event. First of all, I don’t expect him to defeat Mark Hunt. Even if he is able to, I don’t see him finishing Hunt. I actually see Hunt finishing him, so selecting Hunt for your roster might not be a bad idea. Silva’s best shot at winning is taking the fight to the judges and staying out of striking range. He might not maximize your point-scoring abilities on this card, so I’m saying to just avoid “Bigfoot” this time around due to his tough opponent and bad chin.

    Valerie Letourneau ($8,100) & Holly Holm ($8,000)

    I’m grouping these two together. They’re fighting the two most dominant women in the sport. I actually think Holm has a decent chance if she has an excellent gameplan. That gameplan, though, means staying as far away from Ronda Rousey as possible, and thus not maximizing point-scoring ability. Letourneau almost feels like she is being led to a slaughter. I’m finding a way to have both Rousey and Joanna Jedrzejczyk on my roster, and I think they score finishes over their opponents rather easily. That means avoid the challengers.

    OUR LINE-UPS

    RYAN FREDERICK: Ronda Rousey ($11,400), Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($11,300), Uriah Hall ($9,800), Anton Zafir ($8,800), Steve Kennedy ($8,600)

    I found a way to get both dominant champions in my line-up, selecting Ronda Rousey and Joanna Jedrzejczyk. I see them getting the finishes in their title fights, and I don’t see either fight going past the second round. First-round wins won’t be surprising as well. I like Uriah Hall to continue to live up to his potential and get the finish win. The gameplan and blueprint for finishing Robert Whittaker is out there, Hall just has to execute. Anton Zafir is a sneaky play in his short-notice UFC debut, and he could make a big impression against James Moontasri, who can be finished. I rounded out my team with Steve Kennedy. Kennedy makes his second UFC appearance, but he has 22 professional wins in his career, with 17 by knockout or submission. His opponent, Richard Walsh, was brutally knocked out in his last bout. I give Kennedy a decent shot, and someone had to fill out my roster going with the two women.

    PAUL FONTAINE: Joanna Jedrezejczyk ($11,300), Mark Hunt ($10,500), Richie Vaculik ($9,700), Robert Whittaker ($9,600), Steve Kennedy ($8,600)

    This is a tough week for this. I really tried hard to figure out a way to get both Rousey and Joanna on my team but I cant’ find a combination that makes me happy so I’m let with this. I picked JJ over Ronda due to the fact that I think both will win by quick stoppage but Joanna will probably land more strikes in doing so and thus earn me more points. I also like Mark Hunt to rebound from his beating at the hands of Stipe Miocic to score a quick knockout over Bigfoot Silva. My third choice is Richie Vaculik. He should be motivated by the rabid home country crowd and his opponent Danny Martinez is on a 3 fight losing streak. My next two picks are also Australians with Robert Whittaker being next. The popular opinion is Uriah Hall but Whittaker shouldn’t be overlooked. He’s got a lot of power and again will be a huge favorite to these fans. Uriah Hall is either really bad or really good and we haven’t seen the bad one in awhile. With the short turnaround between fights and the long trip to Australia, it could be a recipe for disaster. My final pick is Steve Kennedy, who took his UFC debut fight on short notice. He’s had a proper training camp here and will hopefully rebound and score me some points. 

    PEACH MACHINE: Ronda Rousey ($11,400), Jake Matthews ($11,000), Robert Whittaker ($9,600), Ryan Benoit ($9,400), Steve Kennedy ($8,600)

    Rousey is definitely worth the price tag.  Automatic.  Ryan Benoit is going to keep winning, especially against Ben Nguyen.  Jake Matthews is a hometown hero.  I saw him fight live in Australia and it was awesome.  I expect him to roll through Arreola.  I like Robert Whittaker moving up to 185.  He’s a fast middleweight, but so is Hall.  However, I’m expecting the uncertain, cautious Hall to come out here once he starts dealing with Whittaker’s complete game.  Steven Kennedy is my sleeper pick… Because he was all I could afford, so I’m hoping he does something besides go to sleep!

  • UFC Fight Night 77 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

    After a two-week break from UFC action, business picks up with the beginning of four straight weekends of fighting inside the Octagon. It kicks off on Saturday night in Sao Paulo, Brazil with UFC Fight Night 77. That also means it is time for fans who play in Draft Kings MMA to get really involved for the next few months with a strong amount of events. Let’s get this party started with this weekend’s event and take a look at some studs, some value fighters, and some fighters to avoid when setting your line-ups for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 77 event.

    STUDS

    Glover Teixeira ($11,000)

    Glover Teixeira will have the second-highest salary of any fighter on the UFC Fight Night 77 card, and with good reason as he comes into the event as a huge favorite according to the bettors. At 36, time is running out for Teixeira to win the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship, but he is still a strong contender with big finishing power. 20 of his 23 wins have come by knockout or submission, and he is coming off a strong third-round submission over Ovince Saint-Preux in August. He fights an opponent in Patrick Cummins who has been finished in both of his losses, and both have come due to first-round knockouts. Teixeira packs the power to finish Cummins, and he has solid enough takedown defense that he should be able to negate Cummins’ strength in the wrestling department. I like Teixeira to score a finish and net you a lot of points.

    Thomas Almeida ($10,900)

    Thomas Almeida is the definition of stud, and he is one of the brightest prospects in the sport, and this is another big chance for him to shine in the spotlight. He is a violent fighter and a nasty finisher. He has scored 19 of his 20 wins in his perfect career by stoppage, a whopping 95% finishing rate. He lands a high amount of strikes as well, and he has averaged 95.2 points in his two fights that have come during the Draft Kings era. Both of those fights were finishes, and Almeida lands over seven significant strikes per minute. Face it, he scores a lot of points. He has an opponent in Anthony Birchak who will stand-and-trade with him, but Birchak has been finished in the first round in both of his losses. Almeida poses the all-around skillset to give Birchak a lot of trouble, and I sense a big finish in this bout by Almeida.

    VALUE PICKS

    Jimmie Rivera ($9,000)

    Jimmie Rivera enters UFC Fight Night 77 riding an impressive 16-fight win streak and is coming off of two straight first-round finishes, including in his UFC debut against Marcus Brimage in July. He has a tough fight against Pedro Munhoz, but Munhoz is coming off a year-long suspension for a questionable drug test in his last bout. Rivera likely has the striking edge between the two, but Munhoz is tough to finish and has a durable chin. Rivera will want to keep this fight on the feet but keeping it upright against Munhoz will be tough. Luckily, Rivera has good takedown defense. Rivera is a solid play at the price tag he has, and he does have a chance for the upset win.

    Fabio Maldonado ($8,300)

    I’m going to start this off by saying I don’t think Fabio Maldonado will win against Corey Anderson. Anderson has been knocked out in his career and Maldonado is a very hard hitter, so there is always the chance of a finish, and Maldonado has a great price tag. Maldonado connects on a lot of his strikes. He has landed the most significant strikes in light heavyweight history, and by a wide margin. You will get a lot of points from him if the fight stays on the feet. Anderson connects with a lot of strikes as well, and Anderson can take the fight down at will. Maldonado is going to connect a lot, and who knows, maybe one will sneak in and really hurt Anderson, who took the fight on short notice. His price tag is one worth exploring using.

    AVOID

    Clay Guida ($10,200)

    I’m staying away from Clay Guida on this fight card. He has a tough opponent in Thiago Tavares, and Guida is not much of a finisher these days. Yes, he generally puts on entertaining fights, but entertaining fights do not get you any extra points. Guida may score on some takedowns and grind the fight out, but not a lot of significant strikes will be landed. With this fight likely going the distance, there are some better options if you are looking to maximize your points potential. Even though I see Guida winning, it’ll only be by decision, and I’m taking my risk on fighters I think will win by finish.

    Abel Trujillo ($9,600)

    Abel Trujillo fights Gleison Tibau in the featured preliminary bout, and Tibau holds the record for most takedowns in UFC history. Trujillo holds the distinction of being the fighter who was taken down the most in a UFC fight. Trujillo is a very hard striker, but he fades fast, and if he can’t get the finish in the first round, the second and third rounds become trouble for him. Tibau is a very durable opponent and is a big grinder. He will probably grind Trujillo to defeat. Trujillo may get lucky with an early knockdown, and he could potentially finish Tibau, but I am avoiding putting Trujillo on my team.

    OUR LINEUPS

    RYAN FREDERICK- Glover Teixeira ($11,000), Thomas Almeida ($10,900), Johnny Case ($10,600), Dan Henderson ($8,600), Fabio Maldonado ($8,300)

    I like Glover Teixeira and Thomas Almeida to score big finish wins in their fights for the reasons stated above. I’m taking the chance with Fabio Maldonado based on his price tag, striking output, and the chance he could find an opening and score a finish on Corey Anderson. I like Johnny Case as well as he has shown solid finishing ability. His opponent, Yan Cabral, is coming off a long layoff and is a very tough opponent, but Case is a finisher. The biggest test for Case will be avoiding being on his back as Cabral has very good takedowns. The last fighter on my team is Dan Henderson. He still has that power in his right hand as he showed off against Tim Boetsch. He has a solid underdog price tag which allows for some bigger salaries. If the Vitor Belfort who fought Chris Weidman shows up against Henderson, I predict a tough night for Belfort. I’m going with Henderson to land that big right hand and finish Belfort.

    PAUL FONTAINE- Thomas Almeida ($10,900), Johnny Case ($10,600), Alex Oliveira ($10,500), Gilbert Burns ($9,400), Dan Henderson ($8,600)

    I’m taking Dan Henderson for value. I really think that the Hendo/Belfort matchup is a tossup but it’s going to be quick regardless. Henderson retains more of his power at 185 and I’m hoping for another quick KO from him. Gilbert Burns is unbeaten in his pro career and has submitted each of his last two UFC opponents. This fight is likely to go the ground at some point with Magomedov having a solid wrestling base and that’s where Burns should take over and secure a sub. Thomas Almeida is also unbeaten, at 20-0, and has finished all but one of his pro opponents including early knockouts in each of his last two UFC fights. Both of Birchak’s career losses have been by submission, making him a prime candidate to be finished here. Johnny Case is on an 11 fight win streak in which he’s finished 8 of his opponents. Despite being 6 years younger, he’s also got a significant experience edge over his opponent Yan Cabral. My last pick is the Brazilian Cowboy Alex Oliveira. His fight with Piotr Hallman should be an exciting slugfest with a lot of strikes thrown. All but 2 of his career wins have been finishes, including a first round submission of KJ Noons. In his lone UFC loss he was dominating Gilbert Burns before being caught in a 3rd round submission.

    PEACH MACHINE- Glover Teixeira ($11,000), Thomas Almeida ($10,900), Viscardi Andrade ($9,500), Gilbert Burns ($9,400), Dan Henderson ($8,600)

    I’m taking Hendo because I think Vitor has lost his chin and confidence since being humbled by Weidman, and Hendo just needs to connect once.  Dan has been off TRT longer than Vitor so he’s used to fighting without the sauce.  Hendo isn’t going to let Belfort repeat what happened in their last match. I really like Teixeira, as he handled OSP really well last time out, and I’m expecting much the same fight against Cummins.  Plus, Teixeira’s entrance music is terrifying. Almeida is someone to keep an eye on in the bantamweight division, and I expect him to have a dominating performance.  He’s a big favorite and fighting in his home country. I expect a submission from Burns, and I’m not expecting many finishes on this card. Andrade is my sleeper pick.  He hasn’t fought in 20 months but I think he’ll be motivated to come out and have a strong showing against the Russian in his home country.

    LAST EVENT’S RESULTS

    For our teams at the last event, UFC Fight Night 76, none of the three of us had much success, and none of us cashed in the basic $3 entry fee game on Draft Kings. Ryan had the most points for the second straight time, scoring 217.50 points with his line-up. Paul scored 163.50 points and Peach scored 153 points with their line-ups. We are all hoping for much better success this weekend.

  • UFC Fight Night 76 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

    UFC Fight Night 76 comes your way on Saturday afternoon here in the United States as the Octagon makes its’ third appearance in Dublin, Ireland. The event has undergone some late changes, losing the original main event and co-main event. We still have some interesting bouts and some chances to make money if you are playing daily fantasy this weekend on DraftKings. Let’s take some look at some studs, some values, and some fighters to avoid this weekend when setting your roster for UFC Fight Night 76.

    STUDS

    Stevie Ray ($11,000)

    Stevie Ray has the highest salary of all the fighters competing on the UFC Fight Night 76 card, and for good reason. He has been impressive in his two bouts in the UFC, scoring knockout wins early in those bouts. He has averaged 101.5 DFS points in those two fights, and he is the biggest betting favorite on the card in his bout against Mickael Lebout. Ray has a lot of power in his fists, and some solid submission skills too if the fight hits the mat. Lebout has some submission skills as well, having won six fights that way, and Ray has lost four fights that way. Lebout is more of a point fighter, though, and Ray likes to get that finish. With his 14 stoppage wins and the power he displays, he is the best bet to score a big finish on this card.

    Scott Askham ($9,700)

    I like Scott Askham in his fight against Krzysztof Jotko. Askham scored a big finish over Antonio Carlos Junior in his last bout, and he is a tall middleweight. The best thing is he knows how to use his length to his advantage. He is a knockout artist, having won eight of his 13 fights by knockout, and finishes are where you are going to maximize your points. Askham also has underrated submission skills. Jotko has only lost once in his career, but he is not much of a finisher. His only loss also came by stoppage. Both men share the same salary, and it is a toss-up on the betting lines. However, I like Askham’s chances of scoring a win by stoppage, and I like him to win the fight in general.

    VALUES

    Darren Till ($9,300)

    Darren Till is a young, undefeated prospect making his second appearance in the Octagon. At just 22-years-old, he is 13-0 with eleven wins by stoppage. He fights another undefeated fighter in Nicolas Dalby, who comes in with a 14-0 record. Till has a lot of knockout power and some brutal ground-and-pound, and he is still evolving. Dalby has likely peaked in his career, and he has good skills, but is not much of a finisher. Till is a solid value play because of his ability, his progression, and his power. I see him getting a stoppage win.

    Robert Whiteford ($9,200)

    Robert Whiteford fights the most experienced UFC veteran on the card in Darren Elkins. Whiteford has won his last two fights, showing off his solid judo skills. Elkins is a strong wrestlers so Whiteford will be needing to use those judo skills. He scored a big knockout win in his last fight, but Elkins is a tough fighter to finish. Elkins has struggled putting his wrestling and kickboxing together and that is where Whiteford is going to have to take advantage of. It could be tough for Whiteford to score points, but he has some solid value with his knockout power in his hands.

    AVOID

    Norman Parke ($10,800)

    Norman Parke has the second-highest salary of all of the UFC Fight Night 76 participants. He has scored just one finish in his UFC career, and it was against a lesser fighter. He is fighting Reza Madadi, who despite coming off a 30-month layoff, is still a stout opponent who will be hard to finish. Parke is more of a points fighter and this fight will likely go the distance. With his high salary, I would stay away from Parke as I don’t see him getting enough points to get you high in the cash. I do expect him to win, though, so the risk is there if you choose to go that way.

    Cathal Pendred ($8,800)

    I can’t tell you to avoid Cathal Pendred enough. He just hasn’t shown the skills to be a finisher on a consistent basis in the UFC. He has won four of his five UFC bouts, but only one has been a finish, and the rest have been boring decisions, and some were controversial decisions. He is awkward in his strikes and he telegraphs his takedowns. He has been given a tough opponent in Tom Breese, one that could send Pendred right out of the UFC. Breese may actually finish Pendred, so his $10,600 salary could be enticing if you have room on your roster. However, stay away from Pendred at all costs.

    OUR LINEUPS

    RYAN FREDERICK- Stevie Ray ($11,000), Tom Breese ($10,600), Scott Askham ($9,700), Darren Till ($9,300), Robert Whiteford ($9,200)

    Every one of the fighters I’m using have been listed in some form above. I like all of my roster to actually score finish wins. Ray has the knockout power and is facing a fighter he can finish quickly. Breese, I see him finishing Cathal Pendred, but that may be tough. Askham and Till have such solid power and they’re in fights that should be showcase bouts for them. Whiteford is the toughest one to predict since he has such a tough opponent in Darren Elkins. I think Elkins has almost peaked as a fighter and Whiteford is developing quite nicely.

    PAUL FONTAINE- Stevie Ray ($11,000), Aisling Daly ($9,900), Paddy Holohan ($9,600), Darren Till ($9,300), Cathal Pendred ($8,800)

    The crowd has been such a factor in previous shows in Dublin so I’m going with all fighters from that area. I like Aisling Daly who I believe it better than she’s shown herself to be in previous UFC fights. She has a long history of fighting the best at both 115 and 125 and she should grind out a decision win or perhaps a late submission. Paddy Holohan will be fighting the biggest fight of his life and I’m predicting his main event bout with Louis Smolka to be a potential fight of the year candidate. The crowd will will Paddy to a win. Cathal Pendred had a 4 fight win streak snapped at UFC 189 but they’ve given him a winnable fight here Pendred will do what he always does and grind out  a decision win. As the lower priced fighter, he’s a must for my team. Stevie Ray is a finisher and I think the Scottish fighter is going to blitz Mickael Lebout and score a dynamic KO win. My last pick is Darren Till. Unbeaten, fighting close to home and he’s an underdog. Great value pick in my opinion. Someone’s zero has got to go and I think it will Nicolas Dalby’s.

    PEACH MACHINE- Norman Parke ($10,800), Nicolas Dalby ($10,100), Scott Askham ($9,700), Paddy Holohan ($9,600), Jon Delos Reyes ($9,400)

    I was taking Dustin Poirier, but switched to Paddy Holohan when Poirier’s fight was cancelled.  I’m also taking Jon Delos, my Guam homie.  I trained with him in Guam and was always impressed by his grit.  He’s tough as hell, and had a great fight last time out in Manila.  It was a blood bath.  I expect him to finish.  Norman Parke I believe is underrated.  He’s dang good but has lost his last two by split decisions.  He’s got a ton of potential and a lot to prove here in his home country.  I expect a good showing with Parke scoring a lot of points off of strikes.  Scott Askham I chose more as a pick against Jotko.  I don’t think Jotko will last any longer and I expect him to get KO’d and then cut.  Finally, I went with Nicolas Dalby because his nickname is Sharpshooter and I’m a huge fan of Bret Hart and Tyson Kidd.  That’s the sort of in depth analysis you get with the PeachMachine…  I’m actually pretty interested in this show but there are a lot of guys that the average fan won’t recognize.  This card does have potential to be fun, and it’s airing in the middle of the afternoon, so you know what that means… Day drinking!

    NOTE: Due to an error with Draft Kings, UFC 192 events did not take place, therefore we have no scores from that event to compare how we did. We hope that doesn’t happen this time.

  • UFC Fight Night 75 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

    Daily fantasy has taken over the sports world as you consistently see commercials for DraftKings and FanDuel all over your sports channels and sporting events. It has become a huge industry, and the UFC joined in earlier this year when they became a part of DraftKings. With nine months of events in the past, the UFC is here to stay on DraftKings, and there is some money to be made for those willing to participate.

    While they do not have the number of games for play as the NFL or the MLB, DraftKings MMA still has plenty of fun to offer. With that being said, starting this week with UFC Fight Night 75, we will be taking a look at ways you could potentially earn some money, if you are willing to take the risk, and perhaps earn some big money.

    Let’s start with the basic rules for those who may be unfamiliar with how Draft Kings MMA works. Every fighter on the card is assigned a salary. They are generally coordinated with the current betting odds at the times the salaries are set. A huge favorite will have a large salary while a big underdog will not cost you as much. It involves a lot of risk and taking chances on fighters you may not be sure will actually win. You have a salary cap of $50,000, and your team is limited to five fighters. Generally speaking, depending on the salaries, you are usually able to fit two or three favorites onto your roster, but you will always have to take on two or three betting line underdogs.

    The scoring system runs as follows: you get 0.5 points for a significant strike, 1 point for position advancement on the ground, 2 points for a takedown and a reversal/sweep on the ground, and 3 points for a knockdown. You also get points on how the fight ends. You earn 100 points for a first-round win, 75 points for a second-round win, 50 points for a third-round win, 40 points for a fourth-round and a fifth-round win, and 25 points for a decision win. With that system, you should be looking at filling your roster with fighters you expect to win early with a finish.

    Every week, beginning with this week, we are going to give you a rundown of who I see as being studs to score you points, some value plays, and then some fighters I am going to avoid. Then, I will be joined by WrestlingObserver.com contributor Paul Fontaine, and occasional Bryan & Vinny show crasher PeachMachine as we give your our lineups that we will be using to make money as well as our thoughts into why exactly we went with the five fighters we did.

    STUDS:

    Diego Brandao ($10,600)

    Diego Brandao has the sixth-highest salary on the UFC Fight Night 75 card, and he has perhaps the best chance to score a finish when he takes on Katsunori Kikuno. Kikuno has lost two of his four UFC bouts, and both of those losses have come by knockout in the first round. Brandao is a violent and dangerous fighter, and his only UFC losses have come to top featherweights. Kikuno has a weird style with the karate background, and Brandao can mentally implode at times. Brandao is coming off a big stoppage win over Jimy Hettes, and he is a finisher, having won 15 of his 19 bouts by finish. Finishes score you the big points, and with Kikuno’s suspect chin and Brandao’s aggressive nature, he has the chance to score you some big points.

    Takeya Mizugaki ($10,500)

    Takeya Mizugaki is coming into Saturday night’s fight card on a two-fight losing streak, but he gets a favorable match-up against George Roop in his home country of Japan. Mizugaki is on a win streak when fighting in Japan, and is looking to bounce back in a big way. He is a big betting favorite over Roop, which should bode well for his chances. He can score points on a lot of takedowns, and his ground game is well above Roop. Roop has been stopped by strikes in his last three losses, and while Mizugaki isn’t known as a big finisher, he can finish a weak opponent. Roop is a weak opponent. On a card where there might not be a lot of finishes, you should look for someone who has the chance to score the biggest going the distance. Mizugaki is that guy.

    VALUE PLAYS:

    Roy Nelson ($8,600)

    I’m actually a little surprised that Roy Nelson is available at his modest price. I was thinking about whether or not to put him as a value play as his recent record isn’t all that good. Then again, all seven of his wins in the UFC have come by knockout, and he gets an opponent in Josh Barnett who is coming off a near two-year layoff. Barnett was finished in his last fight, and finished quickly by Travis Browne. You know that Nelson is going to be looking for the knockout, and while Barnett can avoid punches quite well, the right hand from Nelson is a difference maker. If you are stacking your team with overwhelming favorites, perhaps taking a flyer on Nelson scoring a finish could make the difference in winning.

    Yusuke Kasuya ($8,500)

     Yusuke Kasuya is an underdog and a value pick as he is making his UFC debut against a tough foe in Nick Hein. Kasuya has won nine fights in his career, all by stoppage, with seven finishes in the first round. Simply put, from a fantasy perspective, he gets the job done. However, Hein will give him a challenge. Hein has some good wrestling and his striking is improving, and he is well-rounded. Kasuya has a solid grappling and ground game, and if he can score a takedown, he is one who quickly looks for guard passes in looking for a submission. It is a risky play, but a very valuable one should you be looking for an underdog to hit big.

    AVOID:

    Gegard Mousasi ($11,300)

    Gegard Mousasi has the highest salary of the twenty fighters on the card, and he is the biggest betting favorite. He is fighting Uriah Hall, a tough opponent, but one who is taking the fight on short notice. Mousasi can be an enigma. He can finish you fast, but he can also drag fights to the later rounds and squeak out an uneventful decision where not much happens. You can’t really know whether to trust him putting up big points from a fantasy point-of-view. He may score you takedown points, but Hall has good takedown defense. Hall is the kind of opponent that will make Mousasi’s striking attack more methodical over a constant barrage. You don’t quite know what to get from Mousasi in this fight, so I would avoid him. He could put up big points, but at the salary he’s at with the opponent he has, I’m not taking the risk. I do see him winning the fight though.

    Katsunori Kikuno ($8,800)

    I don’t expect Katsunori Kikuno to get the win over Diego Brandao. He leaves too many openings, has a suspect chin, and his striking skills have seemed to diminish with each UFC bout. He doesn’t have the same head movement, and his head is going to be a target for Brandao. I love Brandao as my top stud on this card, as noted above, which makes Kikuno the one fighter I’m staying away from. He is cheap, and Brandao can get in a wild brawl and lose his head, and Kikuno could definitely capitalize. I still see Brandao getting an early finish.

    OUR LINEUPS — 

    RYAN FREDERICK: Kajan Johnson ($10,700), Diego Brandao ($10,600), Takeya Mizugaki ($10,500), Roy Nelson ($8,600), Yusuke Kasuya ($8,500)

     I like Brandao, Mizugaki, Nelson and Kasuya for all of the reasons I stated above. I see Brandao and Mizugaki scoring finish wins early, and Kasuya being an underrated pick. Nelson has the big right hand that can end any fight. I also like Kajan Johnson against Naoyuki Kotani. Kotani is 0-4 in the UFC, and he has been finished in his last three Octagon appearances, and Johnson has scored 16 of his 20 professional wins by stoppage.

    PAUL FONTAINE: Gegard Mousasi ($11,300), Diego Brandao ($10,600), Takeya Mizugaki ($10,500), Teruto Ishihara ($9,000). Roy Nelson ($8,600)

    I like Nelson as the underdog here and I think he’s good value. Barnett has his foot in too many waters these days and Nelson’s power cannot be overlooked. Mizugaki is a finisher and even though he’s a favorite, there are bonus points for finishes with Draft Kings. Same goes for Diego Brandao. Brandao in particular is facing someone that has suffered two first round knockouts in recent fights. Ishihara is more a bet against his opponent Mizuto Hirota, who has two UFC fights on his resume and lost them both. Ishihara is also 10 years younger. Mousasi is the most expensive pick but I have room for him and feel quite confident he’ll finish the overmatched Uriah Hall in quick order.

    PEACH MACHINE: Kyoji Horiguchi (11,000), Roy Nelson (8,600), Yusuke Kasuya (8,500), Kajan Johnson (10,700), Li Jingliang (10,300)

    Horiguchi is my lock.  I had the pleasure of training with Horiguchi in Guam.  He’s a masher.  I picked him to beat DJ, and even though he got decimated, he was beaten by the best.  Look for him to finish early.  KO’s score big points. I picked Nelson ecause I have no faith in Barnett.  Bad KO’s change a man, and his last fight was a bad KO.  His future is in BJJ.  Another KO win for big points. I saw Kasuya decimate Frank Camacho, a monster BJJ Brown Belt, in the PXC in Guam in his last fight.  Frank is a monster brown belt at jits and he was subbed by Kasuya.  I’m taking him by sub. Johnson trains at Tristar.  Anyone under GSP has a good shot anytime he steps in the cage… Except for Francis Carmont coming off a 5 hour delay against Phil Davis. Jingliang is my sleeper pick. This will be a good match so I’m hoping for some high points due to a lot of strikes being thrown, if not the win. My remaining salary is $900. I’ll wager all my extra money on the main event not going five rounds.