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  • UFC Fight Night 88 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

    One of the traditional events on the UFC calendar is Memorial Day Weekend in Las Vegas. While not a pay-per-view event like usual, the Octagon is back this weekend, on Sunday this time, for UFC Fight Night 88 on FOX Sports 1. The event is headlined by undefeated bantamweights Thomas Almeida and Cody Garbrandt. Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when making your fantasy rosters for Sunday’s event.

    STUDS

    Abel Trujillo ($11,200)

    Abel Trujillo has the highest salary of the fighters competing on the UFC Fight Night 88 card, and it shouldn’t be a surprise for many reasons. Most of the bouts are evenly matched, but Trujillo will have an advantage as he fights a replacement fighter taking the fight on short notice making his UFC debut in Jordan Rinaldi. Trujillo has put up a solid 5-2 UFC record (with one no contest, though one of his wins was actually a loss that was overturned), with his only official losses coming to Khabib Nurmagomedov and Tony Ferguson, both of whom are top-five ranked fighters. All of his official UFC wins have come by stoppage, and he is a dangerous and powerful fighter. Rinaldi has a solid 12-4 record, but he gets a tall order in making his UFC debut. Trujillo is a very good bet to score a finish and he is our top play for the card.

    Aljamain Sterling ($11,000)

    Aljamain Sterling enters Sunday night with an undefeated record, a new contract with the UFC, title shot aspirations, and the fight he wanted as he takes on Bryan Caraway. Sterling is a huge favorite in the bout, and with good reason as he is a perfect 13-0 with nine finishes, and three of his four UFC wins have been finishes. Caraway is a tough and durable fighter, but has garnered a reputation of late of turning down fights in what people seem to see as him trying to maintain his positioning in the division. If Caraway wants to fight for a title, he can’t turn down fighting Sterling. That may be a mistake for him. Sterling is young and hungry, and the 135-pound division is thriving with talent. He may be the most talented prospect, though the main event fighters on Sunday have something to say about that. He is just too talented for Caraway, and I expect Sterling to have an impressive showing on Sunday. He’s an excellent play.

    VALUE PLAYS

    Jeremy Stephens ($9,300)

    With so many close match-ups on this card, it is hard to find a lot of value as I see the true underdogs having trouble picking up wins. That is why I’m going with Jeremy Stephens as a value play despite the fact he is fighting former bantamweight champion Renan Barao. Barao is moving up to 145 pounds as he is now going to have trouble making 135 pounds with the IV ban, and he is someone who has looked different in recent fights. Make of that what you will, but there have been noticeable changes in a lot of fighters, and Barao is one of those. Stephens has just a .500 record in the UFC, but he has been around a long time and is capable of making a solid run in the division. He has the knockout power and is known for exciting fights, and Barao has been taking beatings lately and not looked himself. Stephens is a sneaky play to score an upset and has some solid value.

    Chris Camozzi ($8,900)

    Chris Camozzi is another good value fighter as he looks to score his third straight win. He takes on Vitor Miranda, who has won three straight, but Camozzi is the toughest opponent he has fought in the UFC. Miranda is also getting older, but he is coming off an impressive win. Camozzi is also coming off an impressive win, and a rather quick one. This fight should be closer in the betting odds, but the longer odds make Camozzi’s salary a very good one to look at. Both men are very good kickboxers, but Miranda is a big middleweight, and he fades late. That could open the door for Camozzi to attack late. Camozzi has dangerous muay Thai and is very underrated despite his lackluster UFC record. Both men are on solid streaks, and Camozzi has a very solid chance at getting the upset. He is worth looking at for some value.

    FIGHTERS TO AVOID

    Jorge Masvidal ($9,600)

    Jorge Masvidal is a very good fighter, somewhat underrated by a lot. He took former lightweight champion Benson Henderson to the wire but came up short in his last fight. He has a 6-3 record in the UFC, but he is a fighter you should avoid for a simple reason- he isn’t much of a finisher. He has 16 wins by decision out of his 29 career wins, and he has only scored two stoppage wins in the last six-plus years. He is also facing a very dangerous opponent in Lorenz Larkin, who is better on the feet in a pure kickboxing term. Masvidal is more well-rounded, but he tends to abandon his solid takedown game to get into a battle on the feet. That will cost him against Larkin. I like Larkin in this fight, and I don’t see anything but a decision happening. I would avoid Masvidal at his salary. If his salary was lower, he’d have good value, though.

    Jake Collier ($9,100)

    Jake Collier is 1-2 in the UFC and is on the chopping block coming into Sunday’s card. He has to get a win. That might be a challenge against the debuting Alberto Uda, who is 9-0 with eight finishes in his career. Uda is a crafty striker, and a dangerous one at that, and has very good submissions. Collier eats a lot of punches, and that cost him in his last fight, which was a knockout loss to Dongi Yang. Collier is solid but unspectacular, and he hasn’t shown that he has what it takes to compete at the UFC level right now. Perhaps with a few more fights under his belt, and a loss here would send him back to the regional circuit. His prior UFC bouts make it hard for him to be trusted on a fantasy roster, much less against a dangerous foe. He is a solid pass in my eyes.

    OUR LINE-UPS

    RYAN FREDERICK- Aljamain Sterling ($11,000), Alberto Uda ($10,300), Thomas Almeida ($10,200), Jessica Eye ($9,500), Chris Camozzi ($8,900)

    I’m starting my roster off with Aljamain Sterling. I think he is a future champion at 135 pounds, and he is getting the big push this week. I expect him to finish Bryan Caraway and to be impressive in doing so. Alberto Uda is making his UFC debut, but with eight finishes in nine career wins, an undefeated record, and a struggling opponent, I see him getting a finish. Thomas Almeida is in his first main event, and he does have a tough opponent in Cody Garbrandt. I see him finishing Garbrandt, and even if it goes five rounds, that’s a lot of points that can be scored. Jessica Eye is also on my roster. She is hungry and is better on the feet than her opponent, Sara McMann, who hasn’t shown much in the UFC. I like Eye to get the win. Last on my team is Chris Camozzi, who I see landing a barrage of knees in the clinch on Vitor Miranda and getting a stoppage win.

    PAUL FONTAINE- Abel Trujillo ($11,200), Paul Felder ($10,800), Renan Barao ($10,100), Cody Garbrandt ($9,200), Bryan Caraway ($8,400)

    Many of these matches are very close and extremely tough to call and the main event is one of those. I’m taking a chance but I needed two underdogs to fit some guys on the team that I really like. Both guys are finishers and both have faced a similar level of UFC competition. Both are 24 years old. It’s really almost a pick ’em in my eyes so I’m getting a bit of a break on the price for Garbrandt in that sense. I’m much more confident about Barao. He probably should’ve been fighting at 145 all along but didn’t want to be in the same weight class as Jose Aldo, who was the champion and his training partner. He shouldn’t lose any of his speed and may have even better cardio as a result of not having such a drastic weight cut. And Jeremy Stephens is not getting any younger. I really like Paul Felder in his fight over Josh Burkman and feel like this is a glorified enhancement match for Felder, who had lost two in a row last year before rebounding with a submission win in his last fight. Trujillo is the biggest lock on the card, in my opinion and his price showed it. He has just two losses in the last 5 years and they’ve been to Tony Ferguson and Khabib Nurmagomedov. He’s facing a debuting fighter with 4 losses in the same time period to people who literally aren’t in the same league. My last pick is Bryan Caraway who is a big underdog in his fight against Aljamain Sterling. I see Caraway frustrating Sterling with his wrestling and maybe sneaking in a submission win or a decision.

    PEACH MACHINE- Aljamain Sterling ($11,000), Renan Barao ($10,100), Lorenz Larkin ($9,800), Tarec Saffiedine ($9,700), Cody Garbrandt ($9,200)

    Barao hasn’t fought in a while which is good. He needed to take some time off after two decimations by Dillashaw. I think he’ll be back in old form and destroy Stephens. I’m taking Sterling because I hate Caraway. I also feel like Sterling is gonna be a star soon. Larkin is in top shape at 170 and I’m not sure how Masvidal is going to fare moving up. He’s done so before, but I’m leery. Saffiedine is facing Rick Story who has been out action for a while. He hasn’t fought since 2014. Saffiedine dispatched of Ellenberger, who I consider a better version of Rick Story, so I’m taking Tarec. Garbrandt is my “make him fit” pick because I don’t like anyone else. I like Garbrandt more than Almeida so I’m fine with it. Let’s go Ascension!

  • UFC 198 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

    The UFC heads to Curitiba, Brazil for the first time, bringing an event to a soccer stadium that promises around 45,000 strong for UFC 198 headlined by UFC Heavyweight Champion Fabricio Werdum defending against Stipe Miocic. Despite the loss of Anderson Silva, it is still a deep card on Saturday. Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when setting your fantasy line-ups for the event.

    STUDS

    Cris Cyborg ($11,600)

    Cris Cyborg makes her UFC debut and she is obviously the biggest play on the fight card. She is just a vicious knockout artist and fighting her is likely leading to a devastating finish. She is fighting at 140 pounds, the first time in a very long time she has fought below 145 pounds, but she is also going against Leslie Smith, a natural 125-pound fighter who fights at 135 to be in the UFC, and is now going up even more in weight. Cyborg will be cutting to make 140, Smith won’t be cutting so much. This is a showcase fight for Cyborg to get the fans in her hometown a fighter to cheer for, and it becomes an even bigger deal now that Anderson Silva is now off the card. She should make quick work of Smith and you will maximize your points in picking her. The salary is high and you will have to do some good work with the other four selections, but Cyborg is a must own.

    Warlley Alves ($10,800)

    Warlley Alves enters Saturday’s UFC 198 event with a perfect 10-0 record, and with Anderson Silva now being out, he gets the main card slot on pay-per-view to showcase his skills. Alves has scored stoppage wins in seven of his ten wins, including in three of his four wins inside the Octagon. He is coming off an impressive and dominant submission win over Colby Covington, who was also undefeated at the time. Alves will be facing Bryan Barberena, who is looking to build on the momentum he has as the man to hand young rising star Sage Northcutt his first career loss. Barberena is 2-1 in his young UFC career, but has just fought three times over the course of two years, and Alves is a huge step up in competition for him. Barberena may not be ready for the challenge, and this is made for Alves to score another impressive win as they work to build him up. I expect another stoppage win for Alves, and he will be a good play on Saturday night.

    VALUE PLAYS

    Stipe Miocic ($9,100)

    The challenger for the UFC Heavyweight Championship in the main event of UFC 198, Stipe Miocic, presents some very solid value at a $9,100 price tag. He lands a lot of strikes, especially over the course of 25 minutes, if it were to go the distance. Miocic is a man on a mission to win the gold, and he has a very good chance as he matches up well against Werdum. Werdum has shown improved boxing, but Miocic is better on the feet, so it will be up to Werdum to try and get the fight down. Miocic has good takedown defense, but he hasn’t had to show off a lot of his grappling. That is Werdum’s world. As long as Miocic keeps the fight on the feet, he is going to score points. He also has excellent conditioning. Werdum has a lot of pressure on him, and Miocic has nothing to lose as he goes for the gold. He has an excellent chance at scoring the upset, and his salary makes him very good value.

    Renato Moicano ($9,000)

    Renato Moicano is another solid value play on Saturday’s fight card. He hasn’t fought since December 2014, but he is undefeated in his ten career fights. Five of his nine wins (he has a draw) have come by submission, including his UFC debut win over Tom Niinimaki. He has very solid skills and is a rising Brazilian prospect at 145 pounds. However, he won’t have an easy bout as he takes on another tough rising prospect in Zubaira Tukhugov in the opener of the event. Tukhugov is a perfect 3-0 in the UFC and has won nine straight fights. The big knock on him, despite an impressive 18-3 record, is that he is more of a points fighter as eleven of his 18 wins are by decision, including two of his three UFC wins. He is also coming off a close split decision win against Philippe Nover. Moicano has a good shot at scoring an upset and getting a finish, and he has good value for those looking for their underdog pick.

    FIGHTERS TO AVOID

    Mauricio Rua ($9,200)

    Mauricio “Shogun” Rua is a legend in the sport of MMA, but also one who has seen better days in his career. Saturday night will be a big night for Rua as he fights in his hometown of Curitiba for the first time in 13 years, and that is why he was eager to get on this card. However, he does not have an easy task in front of him in the form of Corey Anderson. Anderson sports an 8-1 record and has won three straight, showing off some impressive wrestling skills and improving striking. However, he does tend to eat some good punches, and he was put down in his most recent loss. Rua has trouble taking punches these days, and his takedown defense hasn’t been at top levels in recent years. Rua can always have a vintage Shogun performance, and perhaps fighting in his hometown will give him that added edge, but his recent performances leave a lot to be desired, though he is coming off a win. As hard as it is to avoid him, with the match-up in front of him, I recommend avoiding Rua.

    Matt Brown ($8,900)

    Matt Brown holds the record for most knockout wins in UFC welterweight history, and he’s long been one of the most exciting fighters at 170 pounds. He has never been able to make that next leap into a title shot, but he gets a big opportunity to make an impact when he takes on Demian Maia on Saturday. It is a fight that Brown asked for, and it may be a huge mistake. Maia excels in the grappling, and he made Gunnar Nelson, arguably the second-best grappler at 170 pounds, look like a novice on the mat. Brown’s biggest problem has always been defending the takedown, and Maia is going to be looking to get the fight to the mat almost immediately. Brown has never been knocked out in his career, but nine of his 13 losses have come by submission. He has a tall task in front of him, but Brown is coming to bring the fight to Maia. He will be tempting to use, but I recommend passing on Brown in your line-ups on Saturday.

    OUR LINE-UPS

    RYAN FREDERICK- Cris Cyborg ($11,600), Warlley Alves ($10,800), John Lineker ($9,700), Stipe Miocic ($9,100), Nate Marquardt ($8,500)

    I have Cris Cyborg as my top pick, and it is a no-brainer. Unless she has a huge adrenaline dump or the weight cut takes a drastic toll on her, she should run right through Leslie Smith, and pretty quickly. I like Warlley Alves to submit Bryan Barberena with relative ease. John Lineker is another solid pick. He has exciting fights and is a finisher, and 135 pounds suits him better. He has a tough opponent in Rob Font, but Font hasn’t fought someone like Lineker, and I think Lineker gives him a good beating. I’m confidently picking Stipe Miocic to become the new UFC Heavyweight Champion on Saturday, and he should rack up some points whether he finishes Fabricio Werdum or goes the distance. Nate Marquardt is my final pick, and one I’m not overly confident on. He is cheap and is coming off a knockout win, and his opponent, Thiago Santos, can be finished. It is my hail mary pick.

    PAUL FONTAINE- Cris Cyborg ($11,600), Fabricio Werdum ($10,300), John Lineker ($9,700), Renato Moicano ($9,000), Matt Brown ($8,900)

    I like the champion to retain in the main event. It could be a long fight as both guys can take a lot of punishment but even if it goes the distance, Werdum will rack up a lot of points in five rounds. Cyborg is a no-brainer. That fight has first round finish all over it. The only question is if she loses any power fighting at 140. Brown is a bit of a risk but I just can’t see him giving up and at some point, I think Brown breaks him and scores a TKO win. Lineker/Font should be a great fight. Lineker’s the type of fighter who should be spurred on by the Brazilian crowd and he should put together a flurry that hands Font his first UFC loss. Moicano is a bit of an unknown but he submitted the tough Tom Niinimaki in his first UFC fight. The only time he hasn’t won in his career, he went to a draw with Felipe Froes, who is one of the top Featherweights outside of North America.

    PEACH MACHINE- Cris Cyborg ($11,600), Fabricio Werdum ($10,300), Patrick Cummins ($9,800), Yancy Medeiros ($9,400), Vitor Belfort ($8,800)

    Another perfect use of 50k but a few things have to happen for this to be a winning hand. I think they will. Werdum finds a way to win. I don’t care what Miocic has in his hands because he has nothing on the ground, and Werdum is a smart fighter. I had Uriah Hall, but switched to Yancy Medeiros after the Silva injury as I see him defeating Trinaldo. Cyborg is a guaranteed first round KO. Cummins has to score a lot of points and beat Lil Nog. He should be able to, unless Nog gets lucky. Vitor is going to be extremely motivated and he’s got KO potential always looming. Also, I had to take a significant dog to get Cyborg. I think Belfort is a steal. He may get beat but I don’t think it will be in the first round. Souza will respect the phenom and take it slow.

  • UFC Fight Night 87 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

    The Octagon makes a stop for the first time in The Netherlands for a fight card on Mothers’ Day as UFC Fight Night 87 rolls into Rotterdam, airing on FOX Sports 1 as an afternoon event in the United States. Headlining the event is a heavyweight bout as Alistair Overeem puts his three-fight win streak on the line against former UFC Heavyweight Champion Andrei Arlovski. Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when setting your line-ups for Sunday’s event.

    STUDS

    Magnus Cedenblad ($10,600)

    Magnus Cedenblad hasn’t fought since October 2014 yet he remains one of our top plays on this slate of fighters for UFC Fight Night 87 on Sunday. He has won three straight fights, and eleven of his thirteen professional wins have come by stoppage. He is a huge middleweight and has some real good talent. He is a solid grappler, and that is the area his opponent, Garreth McLellan, has some trouble. McLellan has a tendency of getting taken down, and with a bigger opponent in Cedenblad who has excellent grappling, it is going to be hard for McLellan to avoid getting taken down. Cedenblad should be looking to utilize his size and grappling advantages, and a finish early should be in line. He has good hands, but a submission early seems more likely. Cedenblad is an excellent pick to start your roster off with.

    Alistair Overeem ($10,300)

    I am honestly surprised that Alistair Overeem is coming as cheap as he is for his main event bout against Andrei Arlovski. Overeem has won three straight and has looked excellent in doing so, and his last win over Junior Dos Santos was arguably his most impressive inside the Octagon, making Dos Santos look like a finished fighter, which is amazing considering how impressive Dos Santos looked in his last fight a month ago. He also faces an opponent known for a glass jaw in Arlovski, who is coming off being knocked out in 54 seconds in his last fight against Stipe Miocic. Yes, Overeem has suffered nine knockout losses of his own, but his style should be able to keep Arlovski from getting on the inside. Arlovski did look like a rejuvenated fighter up until his smashing at the hands of Miocic, and I expect to see more of that Arlovski than the one who had an impressive win streak leading into the Miocic bout. Overeem’s salary makes him an easy play for your roster, and I expect him to be widely owned.

    VALUE PLAYS

    Chris Wade ($9,000)

    Chris Wade is an interesting play for a $9,000 salary. He is undefeated inside the Octagon, but he takes on his stiffest test to date when he meets Rustam Khabliov on Saturday night. Khabilov is an injury replacement, but he had a good amount of notice for the bout and likely got as close to a full training camp as you can get. Khabilov hasn’t looked the same in his most recent fights, and while he got the win over Norman Parke in his last fight, he didn’t look overly impressive, and Wade is a sneaky rising prospect. Wade has good wrestling and some solid submissions, and he may overpower Khabilov to the mat. Khabliov had shown some great throws and takedowns, but that has seemingly gone out the window lately. I’m not sure if he regressed or if the having to stay overseas to train due to visa issues have hurt him, but he just hasn’t looked the same. Wade is a sneaky play to score a lot of takedowns and grind out a decision win.

    Gunnar Nelson ($8,900)

    Gunnar Nelson is going to be the most debated fighter on the card at his $8,900 salary. It’s hard to predict what is going to happen when he takes on Albert Tumenov on Sunday. Tumenov has shown to be an explosive striker so Nelson will be looking to take it to the mat. If Nelson can get the fight down, Tumenov is going to be in a lot of trouble on the ground. Nelson is still world class on the mat, but he did get embarassed by Demian Maia in his last fight. He needs a big rebound if he is ever going to be in the title picture at 170 pounds, and Tumenov is a beast with a five-fight win streak and has explosive finishes. Nelson has yet to be finished, and he could grind the fight out for three rounds and find a submission on the mat. He has good value if he can turn the fight with Tumenov into his kind of fight. It may be a challenge, but I see Nelson having some very good value.

    FIGHTERS TO AVOID

    Yan Cabral ($10,200)

    Yan Cabral has a decently high salary on Sunday’s event, but he is an easy pass for me. He is just 2-2 in his UFC career and hasn’t been overly impressive in his bouts. He has one finish in the two wins, but that was over Naoyuki Kotani, who was 0-5 inside the Octagon. He has a tough match-up against Reza Madadi, a fighter who is very tough to finish, and one that has a good shot at scoring an upset win. Madadi lost his last bout to Norman Parke, but it was his first fight in two-and-a-half years, and the ring rust was certainly evident. Madadi has a very good chance in finishing Cabral, but this looks to be a fight that will go the distance. I don’t expect much from either man, and I actually think Madadi picks up the victory. It makes Cabral an easy fighter for me to avoid.

    Ulka Sasaki ($9,100)

    Ulka Sasaki is the other fighter on my avoid list. He is coming into his bout against Willie Gates as a late replacement for the now-retired Paddy Holohan and enters the fight on a two-fight losing skid. He is in a must-win situation if he intends on having a UFC future, but Gates is a tough foe to go against, especially when he has a full camp. Gates is just 1-2 in his UFC tenure, like Sasaki, but both of his losses came in short-notice situations. When he had a full camp, he won in 96 seconds. Sasaki’s last two losses have come by finish, and Gates is a finisher himself. Sasaki is an easy fighter to avoid, even though his low salary is tempting if you are looking for cheap options.

    OUR LINE-UPS

    RYAN FREDERICK- Magnus Cedenblad ($10,600), Alistair Overeem ($10,300), Nikita Krylov ($10,100), Willie Gates ($9,600), Chris Wade ($9,000)

    I have Magnus Cedenblad and Alistair Overeem as my top plays for this week, and thus they will be on my roster this week. I love Cedenblad’s chances against an overmatched Garreth McLellan and Cedenblad’s grappling will be the big difference. Overeem is on a roll and has looked good-to-great in his three-fight win streak. Andrei Arlovski has a real suspect chin, and against a heavy kickboxer like Overeem, it is looking good for Overeem to get an early win. I like Nikita Krylov against Francimar Barroso. Barroso does just enough to win fights by decision, but he hasn’t been overly impressive, and Krylov has against lesser competition. I like Krylov to win by submission. Willie Gates gets a short-notice opponent who has been finished in his last two, and Gates is impressive with a full camp. I’m taking a chance on him. I’m also taking a chance on Chris Wade. I think he wins and he is cheap and of great value. Takedowns and significant strikes will lead him to the win.

    PAUL FONTAINE- Karolina Kowalkiewicz ($11,200), Alistair Overeem ($10,300), Nikita Krylov ($10,100), Willie Gates ($9,600), Garreth McLellan ($8,800)

    “Reem” is fighting in his home country and is on the verge of a title shot. He’s my lock of the week. A must for any DK team and at a reasonable salary. Nikita Krylov has the best nickname in MMA, “Al Capone” and his last 5 wins have been first round finishes. KK is unbeaten and that shouldn’t change against TUF 20 alumnus Heather Clark. The women on that show have not faired well in UFC competition for the most part against fighters that weren’t on the show. I expect KK to get her UFC finish here as the biggest favorite on the card. Garreth McLellan is a darkhorse for sure but when he wins, he finishes. Magnus Cedenblad was finished by Francis Carmont. ’nuff said. I’m going with Willie Gates for my last pick. KO power in the flyweight division is rare but Gates has it. Yuta Sasaki has been finished in two straight fights and Willie is going to make it three on Sunday morning.

    PEACH MACHINE- Kyoji Horiguchi ($10,700), Albert Tumenov ($10,500), Yan Cabral ($10,200), Anna Elmose ($9,400), Chris Wade ($9,000)

    I will always take Kyoji. He will be a champion someday and I’ll always put him on my team. He’ll get the finish, or a ton of points. Tumenov has a really tough opponent across the cage but he’s game as hell and maybe he saw the blueprint for beating Nelson. Wade is as tough as Khabilov. I’m sure Wade is there to lose, but I don’t think he cares what UFC has planned. Nor should he. Yan Cabral is going against Madadi who I’ve never liked. Elmose is a newcomer but looks tough and de Randamie has been out of action for a while. I like the upset here. I’m not as confident in these picks as I’ve been in the last couple but as usual, my advice is to never play it safe.

  • UFC 197 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

    The Octagon heads back to Las Vegas and pay-per-view for UFC 197 on Saturday night, featuring the top two pound-for-pound fighters in the sport. Jon Jones makes his return against Ovince Saint Preux in the main event for the UFC Interim Light Heavyweight Championship, and Demetrious Johnson defends the UFC Flyweight Championship against Olympic gold medalist Henry Cejudo in the co-main event. Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when making your fantasy line-ups for Saturday’s event.

    STUDS

    Jon Jones ($11,400)

    Jon Jones is the top play for this weekend’s event as he makes his long-awaited and much-anticipated return to the Octagon. It isn’t the fight everyone wants since Daniel Cormier pulled out due to injury, but he gets Ovince Saint Preux, who is a solid top-ten fighter at 205 pounds, but a favorable matchup for Jones. Jones commands the highest salary of all the fighters on the card, and really, that is to be expected seeing as he is arguably the best fighter in the world. The biggest question surrounding Jones is whether the 15 months off and the distractions throughout that time hinder his performance.

    There is nothing that suggests that, though. Saint Preux is powerful at this weight and has solid striking and a great submission game, but he is taking the fight on short notice, and he can’t match the skills of Jones. Jones has dynamic striking, great wrestling and excellent submissions, and is suffocating from top position. Saint Preux struggles when he is controlled on the mat, often looking like a lost puppy when on bottom. Jones should finish him, it’s just a matter of when. Jones should be the most used fighter on the card.

    James Vick ($10,900)

    James Vick is entering UFC 197 on Saturday with a perfect 8-0 record in his career, and a 4-0 record inside the Octagon. If you include his bouts on TUF, his overall record would be 11-1, with the only loss coming to Michael Chiesa, a top-ten ranked lightweight. To say the least, Vick’s record isn’t too shabby. The only problem is his lack of activity due to injuries and various reasons. He was on the TUF Live season in early 2012, but didn’t make his UFC debut until August 2013. He was then out of action for over a year, but had three fights between August 2014 and May 2015.

    He hasn’t fought since that May fight, when he submitted Jake Matthews, who was also undefeated at the time and hyped by a lot. Vick has scored stoppage wins in five of his eight wins, all of them in the first round. He is fighting TUF Brazil winner Glaico Franca on Saturday. Franca won his lone UFC bout in August but this is a huge step up in competition for him. Vick should be able to easily score the win on Saturday, and a finish is very likely. He is an excellent play on Saturday.

    VALUE PLAYS

    Andre Fili ($8,900)

    Andre Fili boasts an impressive 15-3 record in his professional career but has struggled for consistency inside the Octagon. He is just 3-2 in the UFC and has rotated wins-and-losses in those bouts. History would dictate that he is set up for a loss on Saturday as he won his last fight. However, he looked the best he has to date in his first-round TKO win over Gabriel Benitez in November, and he is improving in his overall performance. He has struggled with UFC caliber opposition, and he has that on Saturday in the form of Yair Rodriguez. Rodriguez is a former TUF Mexico winner and has been solid in his three UFC bouts, and is coming off an impressive showing in his most recent win. Fili is the toughest test for Rodriguez to date in the UFC, and he has more than twice the experience of Rodriguez. Fili is a very solid value play on this card and worth a look.

    Henry Cejudo ($8,400)

    Henry Cejudo has been to the top of the mountain in every competition he has been in, and the only thing left is to win UFC gold. He has that opportunity on Saturday night when he takes on Demetrious Johnson for the UFC Flyweight Championship. Cejudo is undefeated in his MMA career and is a former Olympic gold medalist in wrestling. He enters the fight with Johnson on Saturday night as a big underdog, thus making his salary very low, among the lowest on the card. He has a tall task in front of him in Johnson, who is one of the best in the world.

    What makes Cejudo an interesting play is the fact that this fight is five rounds, and it is likely to go the full five rounds. Cejudo has been the distance in all of his UFC bouts and Johnson has gone to the fifth round in all but two of his title fights. That should give both men more opportunities to land significant strikes and for Cejudo to use his wrestling. He also has a good chance at scoring an upset. It is hard to pick against Johnson, but Cejudo’s salary makes his excellent value.

    FIGHTERS TO AVOID

    Kevin Lee ($10,300)

    Kevin Lee is looking to rebound from a disappointing loss to Leonard Santos in December, a fight many expected to go his way. Perhaps he was thinking that too and got too overconfident, and it ended up with him being finished in the first. That ended Lee’s four-fight win streak and has relegated him to opening fight duties on the UFC 197 card. Lee gets a tough opponent in Efrain Escudero, a long-time UFC veteran and former TUF winner who needs a win himself if he wants to avoid being cut for the third time. Lee is the favorite and should get the win, but here is why I am putting him as a fighter to avoid. At his salary, I see better options available at similar salaries. I don’t see him finishing Escudero, and I don’t see him scoring a lot of points en route to a win. Lee likely will win, but for fantasy reasons, I recommend fading him in your line-ups.

    Walt Harris ($9,800)

    Walt Harris has fought three times inside the Octagon, and all three times he has lost. His last two losses have been by knockout. Surprisingly, he has a higher salary than his opponent, Cody East. East is making his UFC debut coming off of Dana White’s Looking For A Fight show, and he boasts a 12-1 record. East has won nine straight fights and eleven of his twelve wins have come by stoppage. East has eight wins in the first round, and he should be looking for an impressive debut win. Harris trains with a top camp in the American Top Team camp, but has just a 7-4 overall record. He badly needs a win to avoid being cut from the UFC roster, and that will give him added motivation. It is just a bad matchup for him, and I am avoiding Harris at all costs.

    OUR LINEUPS

    RYAN FREDERICK- Jon Jones ($11,400), Danny Roberts ($10,400), Marcos Rogerio de Lima ($10,000), Cody East ($9,600), Henry Cejudo ($8,400)

    Jon Jones is my top play this weekend and my top pick. He has the highest salary and I expect him to get the finish of Ovince Saint Preux. I think a second-round submission win is in the cards for Jones. Danny Roberts is another solid pick. He fights Dominique Steele, a man who won his last bout but was knocked out quickly in the bout before. Roberts is an excellent finisher and I see him getting another first-round win here. Marcos Rogerio de Lima fights Clint Hester. One man is going to sleep in that fight as both rarely go the distance. de Lima hits way harder and is bigger and I like him.

    Cody East has a ton of first-round finishes and his opponent, Walt Harris, is a good bet to go down early. My last pick is Henry Cejudo. I think he has a realistic shot at getting the win, and going five rounds will add to the points. Even in a defeat, I see him getting enough points over 25 minutes to equal another underdog that wins points total. He is a risk, but one I’m taking.

    PAUL FONTAINE- Jon Jones ($11,400), Robert Whittaker ($10,700), Sergio Pettis ($10,100), Juliana Lima ($9,200), Henry Cejudo ($8,400)

    I don’t really care what Jones’ salary is, he’s a must for my team. After 16 months away and facing the weakest opponent since before he won the title, he’s almost a lock to score an early finish. I’m picking Henry Cejudo to unseat the champion here in the year of upsets. Robert Whittaker should continue his impressive run at middleweight with another stoppage win over the aging Natal. I like Sergio Pettis to cement his place in the line of flyweight contenders with a dominant win over my countryman Kelades. Rounding out by team is Juliana Lima. She’s got the former champion Esparza coming in off a brutal defeat at the hands of Joanna Champion and should score a victory here.

    PEACH MACHINE- Demetrious Johnson ($11,000), Robert Whittaker ($10,700), Kevin Lee ($10,300), Juliana Lima ($9,200), Edson Barboza ($8,800)

    Again, another perfect use of 50,000. Bet this line-up. DJ is my number one power player in DK. He goes five rounds and gets finishes. IDK if he’ll be able to finish Cejudo, but he will win. Barboza is my questionable pick. I like him to beat Pettis, but it’s iffy. Whittaker is who I THOUGHT i was picking last week. I really like him to beat Natal. Lima is gonna destroy Esparza. I guarantee Esparza will come out scared and flat and will get beaten, and rightfully so. She was absolutely decimated the last time she entered the cage. Kevin Lee is going to be faster and stronger than the fading Escudero. Escudero is one of those guys that had a ton of potential, and just couldn’t get the job done. Lee will get the job done.

  • UFC On FOX 19 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

    The Octagon returns to FOX for their annual April event taking place in Tampa, Florida. The event is headlined by a light heavyweight bout as former title challenger Glover Teixiera takes on former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Rashad Evans. There has been a facelift to this event in recent times, and if you set lineups early, you’ve had to adjust. Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when making your fantasy lineups for Saturday’s UFC On FOX 19 event.

    STUDS

    Khabib Nurmagomedov ($11,400)

    Despite the fact he hasn’t fought in two years, Khabib Nurmagomedov is the top play on Saturday night’s card. He has the highest salary of all the competitors on the card, and he enters the event with a perfect 22-0 record and was the last man to defeat current UFC Lightweight Champion Rafael Dos Anjos. He was supposed to be in the headline position against Tony Ferguson, but an injury forced Ferguson out, and Nurmagomedov gets a late-notice bout against the debuting Darrell Horcher. That likely works out for him as Nurmagomedov really needs a tune-up after being out of action for so long. The fact he is an undefeated top contender fighting a newcomer makes him a big favorite, but he should get the job done. Remember, Nurmagomedov holds the UFC record for most takedowns in a fight, and whether or not he finishes Horcher, as long as the injuries haven’t slowed him down, he should be able to rack up the points.

    John Dodson ($11,200)

    John Dodson has the second-highest salary of the competitors on the card, and it is interesting as he is moving back up to 135 pounds on Saturday night after unsuccessfully challenging for the UFC Flyweight Championship twice. Dodson is small for 135 pounds, but he does hold a win over former champion T.J. Dillashaw. Dodson’s only two UFC losses have come to current 125-pound king Demetrious Johnson, and he was competitive in both bouts. Dodson is looking to make a title run at bantamweight, and it begins with a tough opponent in Manvel Gamburyan. Gamburyan has been inconsistent during his UFC career but is 2-0 since making his own move down to 135 pounds. Despite losing one-third of his fights, Gamburyan has only been finished three times in his eight losses. However, Dodson hits very hard, and he finished Dillashaw, the only man to do so. Dodson is a strong bet to score not just a win, but become the first man to finish Gamburyan since Jose Aldo. He is worth having on your roster.

    VALUE PLAYS

    Michael Chiesa ($9,400)

    Michael Chiesa is an excellent value play for this card, coming in at a $9,400 salary. He fights Beneil Dariush, who has won five straight fights, but was gifted a decision in his last bout with Michael Johnson. When you look at a similar recent opponent in Jim Miller, both men scored wins over him, but while Dariush dominated Miller in a decision, Chiesa finished Miller, something that only Nate Diaz and Donald Cerrone had done previously. Chiesa and Dariush have similar records in the UFC, but Chiesa has had the tougher road. He really should be favored in this fight, and that makes him a solid value pick to score a win. He may not finish Dariush, but when I look at this card, it screams a lot of decisions. Chiesa is gritty and tough, so while it may go the distance, he is a sneaky pick to score the finish. Either way, I see him winning.

    Tecia Torres ($9,200)

    Tecia Torres is another good value play at a $9,200 salary. She is undefeated in her seven professional fights, though she has yet to score a finish. She racks up points, though, and she has the edge of holding a prior victory over her opponent, Rose Namajunas. Namajunas has won her last two fights in dominant fashion by scoring finishes, and that has her the betting favorite here. However, she is just 4-2 in her official career, and while she has improved tremendously, Torres likely has her number, especially if this fight stays on the feet. Torres is better with the striking, but Namajunas is world-class for a strawweight on the mat. Tortes would be best served keeping it on the feet and racking up points by strikes. Again, on a card that could feature a lot of decisions, she is a good underdog pick to score a win, and there might not be a lot of those. Risky play, but she has some solid value.

    FIGHTERS TO AVOID

    Hacran Dias ($9,600)

    Hacran Dias has an impressive overall record and will be in a high-profile bout against Cub Swanson on the main card of Saturday’s event. Swanson is still ranked in the top ten despite two straight losses, but those came to current top five fighters in Frankie Edgar and Max Holloway. Swanson has taken a year off to recover from injuries and should come in fresh and is eager to get back into the title picture. Dias has struggled with opponents ranked highly, with UFC losses to Nik Lentz and Ricardo Lamas, and he hasn’t shown the ability to finish opponents inside the Octagon. He isn’t overly flashy and doesn’t rack up a lot of fantasy points, and I see him having trouble with Swanson. Swanson can be finished, but I haven’t seen anything from Dias to make me confident he’ll finish him, let alone take home the victory. Dias is an easy pass for me.

    Bethe Correia ($9,500)

    Bethe Correia is an easy fighter to avoid. Despite having a 9-1 career record, she just hasn’t shown anything that shows she is a good fighter. Of her three UFC wins, one came over a now retired opponent, one over an opponent who is now more focused on professional wrestling over fighting, and one who has lost four of her eight career fights. Correia folded under the pressure of her first tough match-up against Ronda Rousey, and she has a tough opponent in the gritty Raquel Pennington on Saturday. Don’t let Pennington’s 6-5 record fool you- she is very talented. Despite being just 3-2 inside the Octagon, the two losses came by split decision, including taking now former champion Holly Holm, to the limit, and she could have easily gotten the decision in both losses and be 5-0 inside the UFC right now. Pennington should get this win, and that makes Correia a fighter to definitely avoid on Saturday.

    OUR LINE-UPS

    RYAN FREDERICK- Khabib Nurmagomedov ($11,400), Oluwale Bamgbose ($10,500), Michael Chiesa ($9,400), Court McGee ($9,300), Tecia Torres ($9,200)

    I like Khabib Nurmagomedov as my top play for the event. I’m honestly a little scared of his two-year layoff, but if he hasn’t been slowed by the injuries, he could be champion. With him fighting an opponent making his UFC debut on short notice, it should be an easy night for Nurmagomedov to rack up the points. I also like Oluwale Bamgbose despite the fight he is fighting on just one week’s notice. His opponent, Cezar Ferreira, has been disappointing in his UFC career, has been bouncing between camps and weight classes, and hasn’t shown much of a chin. Bamgbose is a heavy hitter and is a good bet to score a finish. I like Michael Chiesa, Court McGee and Tecia Torres as underdogs primed to win. Chiesa should be favored over Beneil Dariush, and he is a sneaky play to get a win. Tecia Torres has the prior win over Rose Namajunas, and despite her inability to score a finish win, I like her chances in getting a win. Court McGee is a very solid fighter and showed no ring rust in his return from a long layoff. He should be even better in his second return bout, and he has a favorable fight against Santiago Ponzinibbio. I like him to get a finish by submission.

    PAUL FONTAINE- Khabib Nurmagomedov ($11,400), Glover Teixeira ($10,300), Cub Swanson ($9,800), Court McGee ($9,300), Tecia Torres ($9,200)

    For the record, I was gonna pick Hendo in what I thought was the best value on the card. Such is life, with Lyoto Machidar (not a spelling mistake…sound it out) having spoiled that for all of us. Glover Teixeira should be able to stop Rashad Evans in the main event. I know he’s only been stopped once in his career (at the hands of a cheater who does not deserve two mentions in my paragraph) but Teixeira has looked really good in finishing OSP and Patrick Cummins in his last two fights. Nurmagomedov should make quick work of the debuting Horcher. Horcher is a good fighter who I’ve seen fight several times on smaller shows but Khabib is one of the best in the world and he’s trying to secure a title shot. Tecia Torres and Rose Namajunas is going to be a great fun fight. I think that both Torres is going to light her up and as long as she can keep it standing, she’ll either score a late KO or score over 100 strikes on her way to a decision victory. Former TUF winner Court McGee has won 3 of his last 4, including a win over Robert Whitaker, who’s proving to be one of the best in the division. My final pick is Cub Swanson who will be looking to make an impression after being bumped onto the main card after the Dan Henderson-Cheating Brazilian fight was cancelled. Since 2012 his only two losses have been to Frankie Edgar and Max Holloway, two of the very best fighters in the division. Along the way, he’s scored several KO’s, including wins over Charles Oliveira, Dennis Siver and Ross Pearson….all much tougher competition than he’s facing on Saturday. 

    PEACH MACHINE- Khabib Nurmagomedov ($11,400), John Dodson ($11,200), Tecia Torres ($9,200), Rashad Evans ($9,100), Drew Dober ($8,800)

    John Dodson probably scores more points than any other DK player ever. I’m just guessing, but it makes sense. Maybe DJ scores more because he’s always in five rounders, but Dodson should whip Gambo with his speed. Yes, I call him Gambo. Rashad is my heart pick. I think he should beat Glover with his speed too, but I wouldn’t be taking him if I hadn’t named one of my dogs after him. Nurmo’s oppo is taking this baby on short notice and at a catch weight. That’s great for Nurmo. TT has already beaten Rose, and I like her here to do it again. Dober is another heart pick. I think he’s looked really tough his last couple of fights, and he’s got a tough oppo but Dober always swings for the fences. 

  • UFC Fight Night 86 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

    The Octagon comes to Croatia for the very first time on Sunday with UFC Fight Night 86 airing on FOX Sports 1 from Zagreb Arena in Zagreb, Croatia. The main event will be a five-round heavyweight battle as Ben Rothwell puts his 4-fight win streak on the line against former UFC Heavyweight Champion Junior Dos Santos. Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when making your line-ups for your Draft Kings team on Sunday.

    STUDS

    Mairbek Taisumov ($11,400)

    Mairbek Taisumov has the highest salary and is the top play on this slate of fighters, and he is also our biggest stud for the fight card. He is a solid 4-1 inside the Octagon, and he has won three straight, all by stoppage. He is also facing an opponent making his UFC debut in Damir Hadzovic. Taisumov deserved a better opponent, but visa issues have limited him to fighting exclusively overseas, and it has hurt his growth inside the division. However, he should be too much for Hadzovic to handle. Hadzovic is a striker at heart while Taisumov mixes a well-rounded approach, and he can score a lot of takedowns and has a lot of power. I expect Taisumov to make easy work of Hadzovic, and with three straight finishes and 23 finishes in his 24 wins, Taisumov is a good bet to add to that. He is at the top of my play list.

    Francis Ngannou ($9,800)

    There are a lot of heavyweight fights on this card, five in total out of the thirteen fights. That could equal a good number of finishes, or could bring a lot of lackluster action to Zagreb. One heavyweight fighter I like to score a finish is Francis Ngannou. He has a low salary, but his UFC debut was very impressive, and he is facing an opponent in Curtis Blaydes making his UFC debut on short notice. The biggest question facing Ngannou is if he will be able to handle the wrestling of Blaydes, who was a junior-college champion. On the feet, with his striking ability and reach, Ngannou should get the win. He isn’t excellent on the mat, though, and it could pose trouble. I do think the fight will be primarily on the feet and that Ngannou’s power will come out early. I like him to get an early stoppage win.

    VALUE PLAYS

    Derrick Lewis ($9,100)

    At the time of this writing, Derrick Lewis is a betting favorite over Gabriel Gonzaga, yet his salary is very low, that of an underdog, and is in a big contrast to Gonzaga. His salary makes Lewis an excellent value play. Lewis is a big striker with heavy hands and is a finisher. All 14 of his wins have come by stoppage, 13 by knockout. Gonzaga has lost a step and isn’t the same fighter he was, and his chin isn’t what it once was. He can be finished as eight of his ten losses have come by knockout. Gonzaga would be best served to try and grapple with Lewis, but Lewis has excellent defense. Lewis is taking this fight on short notice, but he has been impressive. With it being a heavyweight battle, there is still power on both sides, but Lewis is bigger, more explosive and hard to wear down. I see him getting a big finish.

    Nicolas Dalby ($9,000)

    Nicolas Dalby is another value play, and it is surprising that he is an underdog against Zak Cummings. Cummings has a lot of experience and is 3-1 inside the Octagon, but he is also taking the fight as an injury replacement without a full training camp. Meanwhile, Dalby is undefeated in 15 career fights, but he is coming off a draw with Darren Till in his last bout. This is a solid striker against wrestler fight as Dalby is very good and fluid on his feet. Cummings does have good power but he will likely lose a striking battle with Dalby, so he will be looking to get the fight to the mat. Dalby lands with a lot of volume, and those strikes will add up if it goes the distance. If it doesn’t go the distance, it likely ends with Dalby getting a finish. His salary makes him a very solid value play.

    FIGHTERS TO AVOID

    Lucas Martins ($10,200)

    Lucas Martins seemed like a blossoming prospect early in his career, starting off with a 15-1 record. His loss came on short notice in his UFC debut to Edson Barboza, but he won three straight after that. He bounced between weight classes, and has fought in three weight classes so far in the UFC, but he has found a home at 145 pounds. Unfortunately, he has since dropped two straight fights. They came to solid foes in Mirsad Bektic and Darren Elkins, and now he takes a step down in competition to take on Robert Whiteford. Whiteford is 2-2 in his UFC career and is also coming off a loss to Elkins. Martins is the better finisher of the two, but Whiteford can hold his own. Martins has been disappointing recently, and though he is favored to win, I don’t see a finish happening here, and there are a lot of potential finishes on this card. I suggest avoiding Martins on this card.

    Igor Pokrajac ($8,800)

    Igor Pokrajac being back in the UFC is kind of perplexing. He lost his last five fights inside the Octagon (though one got overturned to a no contest), and he won just four of his 12 UFC bouts. He hasn’t scored a UFC win in almost four years. He has won three fights since being cut from the UFC roster, all by first-round stoppage, and perhaps he’s being brought back just due to the event being in his native Croatia. He is 37-years-old, and his best days are behind him, and he doesn’t get an easy bout in his return when he takes on Jan Blachowicz. Blachowicz has his back against the wall with two straight losses, and he knows he needs to win here. The match-up favors him, and he throws a lot more strikes than Pokrajac does. Pokrajac will have a hard time scoring a win here, so I would avoid him at all costs.

    OUR LINE-UPS

    RYAN FREDERICK- Mairbek Taisumov ($11,400), Jared Cannonier ($10,700), Francis Ngannou ($9,800), Derrick Lewis ($9,100), Nicolas Dalby ($9,000)

    I like four of my fighters to score finishes on a show where they are a lot of chances for finishes with heavyweight bouts and not a lot of UFC experience inside the Octagon. Mairbek Taisumov is my top pick, and with three straight finishes and 23 total in his 24 wins, coupled with the fact he’s facing a UFC newcomer, he is set up for a big win. Jared Cannonier is a heavyweight with a lot of power, and while he hasn’t fought in over 15 months, he hits hard and faces a UFC newcomer as well. Francis Ngannou is a power house, and if he can avoid the ground with Curtis Blaydes, his power will lead him to a finish. Derrick Lewis is a beast, and Gabriel Gonzaga doesn’t have much left in the tank. Short notice or not, Lewis finishes Gonzaga. Nicolas Dalby rounds out my team. He is undefeated, but he is getting a tested veteran in Zak Cummings. Dalby should keep this fight on the feet and get the win, whether by knockout or by going the distance.

    PAUL FONTAINE- Mairbek Taisumov ($11,400), Maryna Moroz ($11,200), Ian Entwistle ($9,300), Derrick Lewis ($9,100), Igor Pokrajac ($8,800)

    Taisumov is a bonafide G and a certified stud and you…..can’t…..teach….THAT. Sorry, a little WrestleMania hangover. But I do like him and his 4-1 UFC record with 3 straight KO’s here. Pokrajac has something to prove and returns to UFC competition after 3 straight first round finishes and his opponent, Blachowicz, has looked pretty bad in his last couple of fights. Moroz is a sparkplug with a lot of power at 115. Her loss to Valerie Letourneau looks a lot better in hindsight after Letourneau went five rounds  with Joanna Champion. I like her to rebound here with a quick KO win. Speaking of quick KO’s, that’s what Derrick Lewis should get against Gabriel Gonzaga, who I truly believe is done. Rounding out my team is the Brit Ian Entwhistle, who has scored quick submission wins in 4 of his last 5 fights. Coincidentally, his opponent Perez was submitted in his only UFC loss. 

    PEACH MACHINE- Mairbek Taisumov ($11,400), Jan Blachowicz ($10,600), Junior Dos Santos ($9,700), Robert Whiteford ($9,200), Derrick Lewis ($9,100)

    This is the perfect team. I used all 50,000 exactly. JDS, while on his way out, is still much faster than Rothwell. Speed kills. Same argument for Lewis, and Gonzaga is done. I’ve always like Whiteford, and I like him more at middleweight than welterweight. Taisumov is a killer. He should finish. Blachowicz should be motivated to come out strong against a returning Pokrajac. Who could possibly care about this show…

  • UFC Fight Night 85 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

    The Octagon returns to Australia this weekend for UFC Fight Night 85 in Brisbane. The event takes place locally on Sunday, but due to the time difference, airs on Saturday night in the US. The event is headlined by a five-round heavyweight bout between Mark Hunt and former champion Frank Mir. Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when setting your fantasy line-ups for the event on Saturday.

    STUDS

    Alan Patrick ($10,800)

    Alan Patrick has a favorable match-up when he gets short-notice replacement Damien Brown in a preliminary bout fight on Saturday. Brown is taking the fight on just a week’s notice after Patrick’s original opponent, Chad Laprise, was shifted to a different bout against Ross Pearson. Brown has won five straight fights to get in the UFC, but sports just a 15-8 overall record. Patrick is coming off his first career loss and is looking to bounce back in a very big way. He has knockout power but has only finished half of his opponents. However, with the short notice that Brown has, it is very favorable for Patrick to get a finish. This could be a fight card where finishes may be hard to come by. You have to take the odds on this one, and Patrick is a very good play for Saturday.

    James Te Huna ($10,500)

    James Te Huna hasn’t fought since June 2014 and is currently on a 3-fight losing streak where has been finished in the first round in each of those fights. He has been battling injury issues but makes his return on Saturday for his second fight at 185 pounds. It is a must-win fight for Te Huna, and he has a favorable match-up when he takes on Steve Bosse. Bosse fights inside the Octagon for the second time and is looking to bounce back from a spectacular knockout loss from a head kick by Thiago Santos. Bosse probably isn’t a UFC-caliber fighter and is likely only getting a second opportunity due to stepping up on short notice to make his debut. It is a perfect bounce back opportunity for Te Huna, who owns 13 wins by stoppage. I expect him to get his 14th stoppage victory this weekend.

    VALUE PLAYS

    Ross Pearson ($9,300)

    Ross Pearson comes in as an underdog in his fight against Chad Laprise on Saturday, and that already makes him a value play as he is an underdog I think that has an excellent chance at scoring a win. Pearson has been rotating wins-and-losses in his last seven fights, and with coming off a loss, history says he should get the win this time out. He fights Chad Laprise, who was moved to this bout just over a week ago. Coincidentally, Pearson and Laprise both lost their last bouts to the same opponent- Francisco Trinaldo. It was Laprise’s first career loss and he was knocked out in the process. Pearson has power and he does good against opponents with less experience, and he racks up quite a good number of punches as he lands with a lot of volume. At his price point, he has a lot of upside if you choose to put him on your roster. He makes for great value on Saturday.

    Dan Kelly ($8,300)

    Dan Kelly has one of the lowest salaries of all the fighters on Saturday’s card, and it is interesting considering he is 10-1 in his career. He has a blue-chip prospect for his opponent in Antonio Carlos Junior, but one who struggled against a heavy takedown fighter in Patrick Cummins. Kelly is an Olympian in judo and works excellent from the clinch, and his striking has developed nicely. He doesn’t do anything flashy but he does everything well. Kelly does have an uphill battle in this bout, but he will have the crowd behind him in a huge way. Carlos Junior hasn’t scored an actual win in almost nine months, and he may not pull the trigger as much considering his last fight ended in 30 seconds with multiple eye pokes coming from him. Kelly makes a good target as an upset pick.

    FIGHTERS TO AVOID

    Richard Walsh ($9,400)

    Richard Walsh is an underdog and has some solid value at his price, but I think he is a fighter to avoid on Saturday. He has a tough opponent in Viscardi Andrade, but Walsh will have the crowd behind him. The two men are almost the same type of fighter, but Walsh has shown he can be put to sleep if a big punch lands. Andrade likes to keep the fight on the feet and strike and Walsh won’t be able to match him there. Walsh may get some takedowns and some top position, but I don’t see him landing a lot of strikes or finishing Andrade. He may get the win but I’m not sure he has enough to justify putting him in your line-up, thus I am avoiding him.

    Brendan O’Reilly ($8,200)

    Brendan O’Reilly is not getting a lot of respect heading into Saturday’s event as he finds himself as the biggest underdog on the card and has the lowest salary. It is for good reason as this seems to be a fight booked to get his opponent, Alan Jouban, back on the winning path. O’Reilly is a low-level welterweight who has a lot of holes in his game, especially on his feet. Against a big power puncher like Jouban, that is going to be a problem. Jouban is probably the smartest pick on the card in all honesty, but his salary is extremely high. I see O’Reilly being finished and finished quick. I can’t justify putting him on your roster, but anything can happen in a fight.

    OUR LINE-UPS

    RYAN FREDERICK- Alan Jouban ($11,200), James Te Huna ($10,500), Mark Hunt ($10,300), Ross Pearson ($9,300), Dan Kelly ($8,300)

    Despite Alan Patrick being my top play above, I am not having him in my line-up. I did when I originally drafted this team, but I made some changes. First off, I’m going with Alan Jouban. I think he makes quick work of Brendan O’Reilly and maximizes his points potential. James Te Huna I see as another fighter who gets a first-round finish. Steve Bosse just isn’t a UFC fighter and that will show again. Mark Hunt is an excellent pick. He has that power and Frank Mir doesn’t have much of a chin to wishstand the punches Hunt will throw. Hunt is also smart enough to avoid going to the ground. I see Hunt getting a stoppage in the first half of the fight. Ross Pearson and Dan Kelly are my two underdog picks. Pearson throws a lot of volume and can easily catch Chad Laprise, but I expect a decision win by him. Dan Kelly is a hail mary pick and he has a tough road to win, but he can get the upset.

    PAUL FONTAINE- Dan Hooker ($10,600), Mark Hunt ($10,300), Johnny Case ($9,700), Ross Pearson ($9,300), Rin Nakai ($9,000)

    Nakai has only one loss in her career and it’s to the current Bantamweight champion. Tate had more trouble with her than anyone else in her recent streak leading into the title challenge and I think her relentless style will wear down Leslie Smith, leading to a late KO or sub. Johnny Case is on a 12 fight win streak, including 4 in the UFC and I think he’ll continue that run against Jake Matthews, who was exposed in his fight with James Vick. It’s been too much, too soon for Matthews and Case is really tough. Unlike Matthews, I think Hunt will make the locals happy when he knocks out Mir early. I think Hunt is a steal at $10,300. I’m shocked that Ross Pearson is the underdog against Chad Laprise. They’re both coming off losses to Francisco Trinaldo but other than that, Pearson’s faced much tougher competition and is a battle-tested  veteran that has power and Laprise was KO’d last time out. My final pick is another hometown hero in Daniel Hooker. Hooker is unbeaten in Australia with his only two career losses coming in Japan and the US. He should be good  for finishing points as well since his last 7 wins have all been by stoppage.

    PEACH MACHINE- Dan Hooker ($10,600), Viscardi Andrade ($10,000), Johnny Case ($9,700), Hector Lombard ($9,600), Rin Nakai ($9,000)

    I like Rin Nakai. She took Miesha Tate to task in her most recent tilt. Alliteration is awesome. I like Johnny Case and I don’t like Jake Matthews. Boom. Magny will be mauled by Mombard. Or Lombard. Don’t hate Dan Hooker. Viscardi will be victorious.

  • UFC 196 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

    The biggest UFC show thus far in the year 2016 comes our way on Saturday night with UFC 196 taking place in Las Vegas, Nevada. Headlining the event is the biggest star in the sport, UFC Featherweight Champion Conor McGregor, as he moves up two weight classes to take on Nate Diaz in a short-notice situation. Also on the card is UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion Holly Holm defending her championship for the first time against Miesha Tate. Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when making your daily fantasy line-ups for Saturday night’s event.

    STUDS

    Conor McGregor ($11,000)

    Conor McGregor is the biggest star in the sport of MMA right now and he is the top play this weekend in fantasy MMA. He has won 15 straight fights, and all but one of his seven wins inside the Octagon have come by finish. He won’t have the distraction of a big weight cut this week, and he is fighting a short-notice replacement. Nate Diaz is good, but he hasn’t had a camp. McGregor has shown amazing skills, and due to his mouth and how he presents himself, there are a lot of cases where fans just don’t wanna give him the credit he deserves. This fight is a style fight that is great for him as Diaz is a slow volume striker. McGregor is light on his feet, has great footwork, is an excellent counterpuncher, and is a power striker. He says he is finishing Diaz inside the first round, and it is hard to argue against him with his track record. He is the top play this week. Use him in your line-ups.

    Brandon Thatch ($10,900)

    Brandon Thatch has struggled recently, dropping his last two fights. However, those losses came to Benson Henderson and Gunnar Nelson, who are top fighters. Before that, Thatch had won eleven of his twelve professional fights, and was a rising prospect. Now, he fights with his potential UFC future on the line. He gets a step back in fighting Siyar Bahadurzada, who is 1-2 inside the Octagon and hasn’t fought since December 2013. Bahadurzada is a tough opponent, but he hasn’t shown much that can convince me he will be a tough challenge for Thatch, and that is without factoring in the long layoff. Thatch has scored all of his wins by stoppage, and all in the first round. He is a big favorite and has a high salary, but he is an excellent play on Saturday night.

    VALUE PLAYS

    Gian Villante ($9,200)

    Gian Villante is looking to score his second straight win after a brutal knockout win over Anthony Perosh in November. He definitely goes all out in his fights and the knockout is always prevelant in his bouts, whether he is on the winning or losing end. Villante has struggled to get a solid run going since coming over to the UFC, but he has a favorable bout in his hands on Saturday night. He is taking on Ilir Latifi, who is a knockout artist himself. However, Latifi struggles with heavy hitters, which is what Villante is. Latifi also fought just six weeks ago, so this is a quick turnaround even though he won in just 28 seconds. Villante is worth a look at his salary and a knockout win is always in the cards when he steps inside the Octagon.

    Tom Lawlor ($8,800)

    Tom Lawlor fights for the second time since making the move back up to 205 pounds when he takes on Corey Anderson, and it is a real mystery why he is such a big underdog, which makes his salary an interesting one for this card. Lawlor has won three of his last four fights, with the three wins coming by stoppage, and the loss to Francis Carmont was a fight that should have gone in his favor. Anderson has scored some good wins in the UFC, but hasn’t had a finish in his last three wins, and Lawlor is the best fighter he has fought so far in the UFC. Lawlor has a strong wrestling game, good submissions and showed off his underrated knockout power in his finish of Gian Villante in his last fight. Best of all, he is cheap, and he is the best bet for an underdog win on Saturday. He has extremely solid value.

    FIGHTERS TO AVOID

    Valentina Shevchenko ($9,500)

    Valentina Shevchenko had an impressive UFC debut, defeating Sarah Kaufman by split decision on very short notice. She is 12-1 in her MMA career and had a 56-2 record in her kickboxing career. However, she gets a huge step up in competition when she takes on Amanda Nunes on Saturday night. It may be too early in her UFC career for Shevchenko to be taking on a top-five opponent, and Nunes has shown to be a finisher. All of her wins have come by finish, but she has been finished in three of her four losses. Shevchenko is a live underdog, but it is going to be a tough match-up for her. I don’t think she wins, which makes her a fighter to avoid on Saturday night.

    Darren Elkins ($9,300)

    Darren Elkins has been rotating wins-and-losses in his last six UFC bouts, a far cry from when he was on the brink of title contention having a five-fight win streak. History says he is set for a loss on Saturday night when he takes on Chas Skelly. Skelly himself is a quality fighter, with a 15-1 record in his career. Elkins is also known as a grinding fighter, preferring to take opponents down and smother them. He will have trouble doing that with Skelly, who is a strong wrestler himself. Elkins has also scored just one true stoppage in the UFC, and that was three years ago. His history makes him an easy fighter to avoid and he will have all sorts of trouble getting the win on Saturday.

    OUR LINE-UPS

    RYAN FREDERICK- Conor McGregor ($11,000), Brandon Thatch ($10,900), Amanda Nunes ($9,900), Gian Villante ($9,200), Tom Lawlor ($8,800)

    Everyone I have on my team has been mentioned in some form above. It is hard to bet against proven track records with finishers, and I feel all five of these fighters are going to score big finishes on Saturday. Conor McGregor has been nothing short of amazing in his UFC career, and the fight against Nate Diaz is favorable for him. Brandon Thatch has won all of his professional fights by finish in the first round, and his opponent hasn’t fought in over two years. Amanda Nunes has also won all of her fights by stoppage, and she is on quite a tear inside the Octagon. Gian Villante and Tom Lawlor are big punches with exciting fights, and they fight opponents who have been finished in the past. I see all of them scoring stoppage wins on Saturday night in what should be a fun event.

    PAUL FONTAINE- Julian Erosa ($10,500), Erick Silva ($10,300), Ilir Latifi ($10,200), Jim Miller ($10,000), Tom Lawlor ($8,800)

    Erick Silva fights are usually quick and violent so the question is whether Silva will be the one to go down or the one to put someone out. I’m betting on the latter. Ilir Latifi is one of the strongest guys in his division outside of Rumble Johnson and I like him to put away Gian Villante early. Julian Erosa looked impressive on the most recent season of the The Ultimate Fighter and even better in his official UFC debut in December. He should continue that here. My lineup wouldn’t be complete without our very own Tom Lawlor who I think is a steal at $8,800. My final pick is Jim Miller. His opponent Diego Sanchez, is tough to put away but will take a lot of shot from the tenacious Miller, earning me a lot of points.  

    PEACH MACHINE- Conor McGregor ($11,000), Brandon Thatch ($10,900), Gian Villante ($9,200), Tom Lawlor ($8,800), Miesha Tate ($8,600)

    McGregor will murder Diaz. We will see the first Octagon death… I don’t understand why everyone is favoring Holm wildly. I expect a long match with a lot of ground work where Tate comes out on top… Villante looked great before getting unexpectedly KO’d by Filthy Tom. I don’t think ol stubby arms Latifi can snatch a win, or a purse (lol), from the hands of big Gian… I like Lawlor. I haven’t been impressed by Anderson. He wins, but Lawlor fights FILTHY!… Thatch is going to rebound from his loss to Gunnar Nelson. He’s on a two fight skid, but I’m predicting his turn around here. 

  • UFC Fight Night 84 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

    It’s another fight week for the UFC as the Octagon heads over to London, England on Saturday for UFC Fight Night 84, headlined by a five-round middleweight bout as former UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva takes on long-time contender Michael Bisping. It is another chance to earn some money playing fantasy MMA, and below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when making your daily fantasy line-up for Saturday’s event.

    STUDS

    Tom Breese ($11,400)

    Tom Breese has the highest salary of all 26 fighters on the UFC Fight Night 84 card, making him the top play for this event, and for a real good reason. Breese is a perfect 9-0 in his career, with all nine wins coming by stoppage. He has six first-round finishes, and both of his UFC wins have come by TKO in the first round. He is a rising prospect in the welterweight division who comes from a top camp, the Tristar Gym in Montreal, and he has heavy hands and good submissions. He also has an opponent he is expected to run through in Keita Nakamura. Nakamura is riding a five-fight win streak and is coming off his first UFC win in September, but he is just 1-3 inside the Octagon. Nakamura was actually losing his last fight until pulling out a late submission. This is a fight to build up Breese even further, and I fully expect another first-round stoppage win for him. Play him as your top play.

    Makwan Amirkhani ($10,200)

    Makwan Amirkhani made a big splash in his first year in the UFC in 2015. He fought just twice, but won both fights in the first round, and has spent less than two minutes inside the Octagon over those two fights. His UFC debut was a seven-second knockout win, and he followed that up with a submission win in 1:41. The man dubbed “Mr.Finland” is a fighter to keep an eye on, and he has a solid track record. He is 12-2 in his career, so he has proven to be beatable, but ten of his 12 wins have come by stoppage. He has also moved to the SBG Ireland camp in preparation for this fight, training alongside the likes of Conor McGregor. He will have the best coaching he has experienced thus far, and he’s fighting an opponent he doesn’t seem to particularly like in Mike Wilkinson. That will add fuel to the fire. Wilkinson is 9-1 in his career, but hasn’t fought since October 2014. This one is made for Amirkhani to get another finish win.

    VALUE PLAYS

    Michael Bisping ($8,600)

    I’m going to start off by saying, as you will see below, I have his opponent, Anderson Silva, on my roster, which says how I think the fight will go. However, at his salary, in a five-round fight, Bisping is a very interesting play. Silva hasn’t fought since January 2015, and is coming off a suspension following his horrific leg break in December 2013. He is getting older, and there are questions as to whether Silva has any left. Having Bisping on your team is banking on the fact you, as a fight fan, think Silva is a shot fighter. Many feel this way. Bisping may not finish Silva with one punch, but what he has is volume. He lands a lot, and this fight could drag on for five rounds, giving him more opportunities to add on to your point total. I’m not playing him on my roster, but his salary is excellent value, and would allow you to spend up on some higher-priced fighters.

    Thales Leites ($8,400)

    Thales Leites is an interesting play as I see his salary just too low. He is very undervalued in his fight against Gegard Mousasi, and I see Mousasi at $11,000 being too high. This is why Leites makes my value play list. Leites is 5-1 since returning to the UFC, and his lone loss came to Michael Bisping in a very close fight in July. He also has the fight style that has given Mousasi a lot of trouble in the past- a solid striker with an excellent submission game. He could give Mousasi fits, and Mousasi is coming off the first knockout loss of his career in his last fight. Leites has just too low of a salary to not consider him being on your roster. He will be on mine, and he is a solid value play.

    FIGHTERS TO AVOID

    Krzysztof Jotko ($10,100)

    Krzysztof Jotko is an impressive 16-1 in his career, and 3-1 inside the Octagon. However, of those 16 wins, only six have come by stoppage, and he hasn’t finished an opponent since September 2012. He doesn’t rack up a lot of points either, outside of his dominant win over Tor Troeng, and he tends to have close fights. He has a solid opponent in Bradley Scott, who is tough to finish and has been a finisher himself in his career, as all of his wins have come by finish. Scott is actually a solid play for the event himself. Jotko just doesn’t strike me as a fighter looking to finish, just one who wants a win. There are a lot of finishers on this event, thus making Jotko an easy fighter to avoid.

    Norman Parke ($8,700)

    Norman Parke has been in way too many close fights to my liking, and is an easy fighter to pass up on this event. His salary is tempting since it gives you some space to spend up on your roster, and let’s face it, you have to have a lower salary fighter on your team. However, he has a tough match-up against Rustam Khabilov, a strong takedown artist, and this is the type of fight Parke comes up short in. Parke has just one finish win in the UFC, which came against an opponent who is 0-5 in the UFC in his career. He isn’t going to finish Khabilov, and I don’t even see him getting the win. He is an easy one to pass on, and don’t get tempted by his low salary. Avoid, avoid, avoid.

    OUR LINEUPS:

    RYAN FREDERICK- Tom Breese ($11,400), Anderson Silva ($10,800), Makwan Amirkhani ($10,200), Marlon Vera ($8,900), Thales Leites ($8,400)

    Tom Breese is the big play of the event and I’m having him on my roster. He is an excellent prospect, and you can’t go against someone who has won by finish in every one of his fights. He has an excellent match-up to get another finish. Next I have Anderson Silva. It does feel like a risky play at his salary, but if he hasn’t lost a step, I think he finishes Michael Bisping. The big question is making sure he isn’t a shot fighter at his age and after the rough past few years. Makwan Amirkhani is also on my team, and his UFC track record with two wins in a less than two combined minutes is hard to overlook. He also has an opponent he is motivated to put away quickly, and he is an excellent prospect. I’m rounding out my team with Marlon Vera and Thales Leites. Vera got a finish in his last fight, and he’s fighting Davey Grant, who hasn’t fought since November 2013 and is coming off being stopped in his lone UFC fight. Vera has a solid shot at the upset. Thales Leites’ salary is just too low, and he has a style to defeat Gegard Mousasi. I’m picking Mousasi to win the fight, but Leites has the ability to get the upset.

    PAUL FONTAINE- Gegard Mousasi ($11,000), Anderson Silva ($10,800), Makwan Amirkhani ($10,200), Brad Pickett ($9,000), Marlon Vera ($8,900)

    If my picks in recent weeks are any indication, your best bet is probably to pick the exact opposite of my team! But I will try and make a case here for why I’m going with these five. Silva is a points fighter who does have deceptive power. I don’t see any way that Bisping knocks out Silva. So this fight is either going to go the full five rounds, meaning Silva gets a lot of points for striking, or Silva finishes him at some point. Either way, he should rack up some point. Mousasi is a front runner who always looks great in fights against guys ranked below him as is the case her. He should dominate Leites on the way to an early finish. I’m taking a bit of a chance with Brad Pickett, who’s on a 3 fight losing streak but his opponent Rivera has been finished in each of his last two losses and Pickett does have finishing ability at 135. I’m really surprised Marlon Viera is an underdog against Davey Grant, who hasn’t found in 2 1/2 years. Vera is coming off a 2nd round submission win and the group of fighters that he came in with from the first season of TUF Latin America has done very well in UFC. I like him to score another stoppage win here. My last pick is Mr Finland, who I think is a lock to score an early finish. He could be the future of the Featherweight division as the man is extremely popular, oozes charisma and has scary finishing ability…the Finnish Conor if you will. 

    PEACH MACHINE- Anderson Silva ($10,800), Davey Grant ($10,500), Francisco Rivera ($10,400), Bradley Scott ($9,300), Thales Leites ($8,400)

    I like Anderson Silva. Bisping will be able to hang for a while and he’ll engage Silva and get knocked out late… I like Leites. Mousasi is coming off a bad KO, and hasn’t looked good… Rivera will KO Pickett but this should be a fun one round fight… I’m taking Scott more as a pick against Jotko who was not impressive last time I saw him… I’m taking Grant more as a pick against Vera, but I don’t know anything about either guy, I just hate Brandon Vera so much it extends to anyone with that last name. I went 4-1 last week but I’m not as confident this week. 

  • UFC Fight Night 83 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

    The Octagon returns this weekend with an event on Sunday night, as UFC Fight Night 83 culminates from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The card is headlined by a welterweight bout as Donald Cerrone takes on Alex Oliveira. Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when setting your fantasy line-ups for this weekend’s event.

    STUDS

    Derek Brunson ($11,100)

    Derek Brunson has the highest salary of the 26 fighters on the card and for good reason. He is a rising contender in the middleweight division, has won three straight fights and five of six in the UFC, with his lone loss coming to Yoel Romero. He has won his last two fights by first-round knockout, and he just keeps getting better each time he steps inside the Octagon. When he steps inside that Octagon on Sunday night in the co-main event, it will be opposite of Roan Carneiro, who hasn’t fought in nearly a year. Carneiro has won six straight fights and is in the midst of a career resurgence, but he sported a 12-8 record at one point before his recent 9-1 run. Brunson is a tough opponent for someone returning from a year-long layoff, and Carneiro has been finished in six of his nine losses. Brunson is the top play of the weekend.

    Donald Cerrone ($10,600)

    Donald Cerrone headlines this event against the other fighter known as “Cowboy” in Alex Oliveira, and he is making his debut at 170 pounds to top it off. Gone are the big weight cuts that Cerrone makes, though he never has really shown any ill-effects from them. Oliveira is a replacement for the pulled Tim Means, taking the fight on short notice. Oliveira has taken most of his UFC bouts on short notice, and he has looked good during his UFC tenure. Cerrone is the best fighter he has ever fought, though, and Cerrone eats opponents like Oliveira up. He seems to falter against the best, and Oliveira is yet to be anywhere near that class. Cerrone is a violent finisher, and he has an excellent chance of finishing a short-notice opponent. Cerrone will be an excellent play this weekend.

    VALUE PLAYS

    Leonardo Augusto ($9,200)

    Leonardo Augusto Guimaraes is making his UFC debut on Sunday, having scored 11 wins in 13 professional fights. He has nine wins by stoppage, and he gets a short-notice replacement in Anthony Smith, who took the fight just this week after Trevor Smith pulled out due to a hand injury. Smith has won seven straight fights outside of the UFC, but last fought less than a month ago and is taking the fight the week of the event. He likely kept himself in shape but fighting on just a few days’ notice can be a tough challenge. That makes Augusto a solid play at his salary if you are looking to spend up for your roster.

    Tatsuya Kawajiri ($8,600)

    Tatsuya Kawajiri is an interesting play at his salary. Only three fighters have a lower salary than him, and it’s interesting that he’s a big underdog to Dennis Bermudez, who has lost two straight fights by finish. Bermudez was on the cusp of a title shot but now has his back against the wall, while Kawajiri is rising as he gets more adjusted to fighting inside the Octagon. He is 3-1 in the UFC, and he is primed for an upset win. He might not be able to finish Bermudez, but is a good candidate to score a decision win. Having him on your roster also allows for more spending on higher-end fighters. Kawajiri is an excellent value play at his salary.

    FIGHTERS TO AVOID

    Daniel Sarafian ($10,400)

    Daniel Sarafian has been a big disappointment during his UFC tenure. He is just 2-3 inside the Octagon, and both wins have come to opponents who are no longer on the UFC roster. He hasn’t fought since a win in December 2014, which came due to a finger injury to his opponent. He has bounced between weight classes and gyms, and it will be interesting to see how all of this, and being out of action for 14 months, affects him. He has a tough match-up against Oluwale Bamgbose, who is a knockout artist getting a full training camp. I recommend avoiding Sarafian on this card as his salary doesn’t justify his performances, and Bamgbose is a solid bet to score an upset victory.

    Joe Riggs ($8,900)

    Joe Riggs has been around a long time and has a lot of mileage under him. Sunday will mark his 59th career fight. He is coming off a win in his last bout, which was his first UFC win since August 2006. However, the win came due to disqualification from an illegal upkick by Ron Stallings in a fight Riggs was losing. He hasn’t looked too good during this UFC run, one that could come to an end on Sunday night. He takes on Chris Camozzi, who is in his own third stint with the UFC. Camozzi is coming off a solid win and should be in line to get another win over Riggs. I don’t see Riggs being able to top Camozzi, so I would be avoiding him on Sunday.

    OUR LINE-UPS

    RYAN FREDERICK- Derek Brunson ($11,100), Donald Cerrone ($10,600), Marion Reneau ($10,300), Oluwale Bamgbose ($9,000), Tatsuya Kawajiri ($8,600)

    I have Derek Brunson and Donald Cerrone as my top two plays, thus I will be having them on my roster. Brunson has been super impressive in recent bouts, with two straight first-round knockout wins. He has a favorable fight against Roan Carneiro and I expect another quick finish. Donald Cerrone has a short-notice opponent in Alex Oliveira and he finishes fights where he’s the big favorite. I like him finishing Oliveira. Marion Reneau is looking to rebound from a loss to Holly Holm, and she has a good match-up with Ashlee Evans-Smith, who was choked unconscious in her last fight. I see that happening again. Oluwale Bamgbose is an underdog with a solid chance at winning by finish with his knockout power, and Daniel Sarafian has been disappointing. My last fighter on my roster is Tatsuya Kawajiri. He has good value and is a good pick for an upset win over Dennis Bermudez. I like his chances.

    PAUL FONTAINE- Derek Brunson ($11,100), Jonavin Webb ($10,700), James Krause ($10,100), Leonardo Augusto ($9,200), Alex Oliveira ($8,800)

    Both Cowboys are moving up a weight class for their main event 5 round fight and I think the difference could be that Alex Oliveira has fought most of his career at 170 and should be much more comfortable with the extra weight. He’s looked great since losing his UFC debut and even looked good in that fight before succumbing to a late submission. Cerrone also had a brutal KO loss in his last fight and that can be hard to come back from. Derek Brunson is a powerhouse at 185 and I look for him to finish Carneiro quickly and get me those first round stoppage bonus points. James Krause has the experience edge over his opponent Campbell and he looked awesome in his first round finish of Daron Cruickshank last time out. He hasn’t had a win that went to the judges in UFC and Sunday will be no different, in my opinion. Augusto is a bit of an unknown but his opponent is taking the fight on less than a week’s notice and just fought 3 weeks ago against a tough veteran in Josh Neer. I like him to continue his impressive non-UFC run with an early finish. Last for me is Jonavin Webb, who was robbed of a win in his UFC debut against Kyle Noke. That’s the only loss of his career and I look for him to rebound in a big way against journeyman Nathan Coy.

    PEACH MACHINE- Donald Cerrone ($10,600), James Krause ($10,100), Sean Strickland ($9,900), Oluwale Bamgbose ($9,000), Augusto Mendes ($8,400)

    I LOVE Mendes, aka Tanquinho, in this fight. He will submit Garbrandt… Bamgbose is scary and is going to be a player someday and I expect him to easily handle Sarafian… Cerrone needs to rebound and look good here. He will… Krause is a savage. He’s 29 and has already had 29 fights (22-7)… I like Strickland. He’s lanky and tough and 13-1, and 4-1 in UFC. I don’t think Garcia will be able to stop him… My picks have been pretty solid so far this year, and I like my picks this card. If I didn’t live in America’s urethra, aka Tennessee, I’d probably play this line-up, but you know, I can’t because jesus hates gambling, I guess. Not the lottery though, he’s cool with that.