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  • UFC Fight Night 90 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

    It is UFC International Fight Week in Las Vegas, Nevada and Thursday night brings us UFC Fight Night 90, the first of three straight nights of action inside the Octagon.

    This event will be headlined by a UFC Lightweight Championship bout as champion Rafael Dos Anjos defends against challenger Eddie Alvarez.

    Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when setting your fantasy lineups for Thursday night’s event.

    STUDS

    Joseph Duffy ($11,100)

    Joseph Duffy is coming off a loss to Dustin Poirier in which he was completely outclassed, so he takes a big step backwards in taking on Mitch Clarke on Thursday.

    Clarke will be fighting for the first time since losing to Michael Chiesa in April 2015. The 2-3 Clarke appears to be a rebound fight for Duffy, who is 14-2 in his career and was ranked in the top 15 prior losing against Poirier.

    Duffy is a finisher and 13 of his 14 wins have come by stoppage. Clarke has only been finished once in his career, but he doesn’t have the same skillset that Duffy does. Duffy is a strong striker, has excellent submissions and good grappling. Clarke is a good grappler as well, but loses this match-up on foot.

    Duffy has the highest salary of all the fighters on the card, but is still a good investment. I expect him to win big on Thursday.

    Gilbert Burns ($10,800)

    Gilbert Burns is looking to bounce back from his first career loss when he fights Lukasz Sajewski on the card’s prelims Thursday night. Burns had won the first 11 fights of his career before dropping a decision to Rashid Magomedov in November.

    That loss is nothing for Burns to hang his head about as Magomedov is 19-1 in his career, but it showed some holes that Burns needs to fill to get back on track inside the Octagon.

    At his best, Burns is arguably the lightweight division’s best submission artist and has the strongest grappling chops. He has scored 10 of his 11 wins by finish, with seven wins by submission. He also trains with a strong camp in the Blackzilians.

    He is a strong favorite over Sajewski, who also lost for the first time in his career when he made his UFC debut in his last fight. Sajewski hasn’t fought the level of competition that Burns has. And if Burns can avoid the slow start that has often plagued him, he should be able to end this quickly. I feel confident in having him as a stud play.

    VALUE PLAYS

    Eddie Alvarez ($8,600)

    Eddie Alvarez is looking to make history when he challenges Rafael Dos Anjos for the UFC Lightweight Championship in the main event of UFC Fight Night 90. And he is also looking to become the first fighter to hold championship gold in both the UFC and Bellator promotions.

    He gets his title shot against Dos Anjos on the heels of wins over former champions in Anthony Pettis and Gilbert Melendez. Alvarez has just two losses in the last eight years, coming to Michael Chandler and Donald Cerrone, so he presents a real challenge in this fight.

    Dos Anjos has looked like a killer the last several years and is the rightful champion at 155 pounds. He finished Cerrone quickly in his last fight, but is coming off an injury and no one knows what he will look like in this new era of the UFC.

    I actually like Alvarez to score an upset as this fight goes the distance and the extra time allows for more point scoring opportunities. He is a risk, but I find a lot of value in Alvarez.

    Alvaro Herrera ($8,500)

    Alvaro Herrera is another interesting fighter with a low salary who has a lot of value on Thursday night’s card. He is coming off a 30-second knockout win in his UFC debut in November, which was his first fight in over three years.

    He gets back to action against Vicente Luque in the opening bout of Thursday’s card, and Luque is looking to score his second straight win.

    Luque has been inconsistent in his career, winning just eight times in 14 career bouts. He is tough to finish, having only been finished twice in his five losses. But Luque has finished opponents in seven of his eight wins, including in his last bout against Hayder Hassan in December. Herrera has scored finishes in eight of his nine wins, but has also been finished in all three of his losses.

    This fight is primed for a finish, and I see Herrera’s punching power being the difference. His salary is worth a good amount of value.

    FIGHTERS TO AVOID

    Anthony Birchak ($10,700)

    Anthony Birchak has one of the highest salaries on the card, and I don’t think he’s worth that high price.

    Birchak is just 1-2 inside the UFC Octagon, and all three of his fights have ended in the first round. He has suffered a submission loss to Ian Entwistle and a knockout loss to Thomas Almeida, and scored a knockout win over Joe Soto in betweeen those losses. Birchak does have 10 wins by finish, but he has been finished in all three of his losses.

    I do like him to get the win over Dileno Lopes on Thursday, but I’m not all that confident in him winning by stoppage. I see him going the distance and getting a decision over Lopes. With his high salary, you have to expect a finish if you have him on your team. Birchak is an easy avoid for me.

    Russell Doane ($9,000)

    Russell Doane is another fighter that should be avoided on Thursday night’s card.

    He hasn’t fought in almost a year and is coming in riding a two-fight losing skid. His last three fights have gone the distance and he hasn’t looked overly impressive in those bouts.

    He gets a tough match-up against Pedro Munhoz, who has been one of the top prospects in the bantamweight division, but has struggled against tougher competition.

    Doane doesn’t land a lot of strikes in his fights, but he is good at takedowns. Munhoz has good takedown defense and is the more well-rounded fighter. And I see that being the difference with him taking a decision. Avoid Doane as I feel he will be fighting a losing battle on Thursday.

    OUR LINE-UPS

    RYAN FREDERICK- Joseph Duffy ($11,100), Gilbert Burns ($10,800), Derrick Lewis ($9,600), Alberto Mina ($9,500), Eddie Alvarez ($8,600)

    I like Joseph Duffy as my top play on the card and I see him having no troubles against Mitch Clarke. I’m expecting him to end it by at least the end of the second round, and probably even in the first.

    I also like Gilbert Burns to bounce back and get a stoppage win, likely by submission as his ground game is so good.

    I have Derrick Lewis on my team as well. He has the size and power edge over Roy Nelson, and I think he can knock Nelson out. Alberto Mina is undefeated with 11 stoppage wins, and is facing Mike Pyle who is nearing the end of his career. I can see Mina knocking Pyle out early in their fight.

    The last fighter on my team is Eddie Alvarez. I believe he will end Thursday night as the new UFC Lightweight Champion, and that it will go the distance, which gives him more chances to score points.

    PAUL FONTAINE- Vicente Luque ($10,900), Reginaldo Vieira ($10,200), Roy Nelson ($9,800), Alberto Mina ($9,500), Dileno Lopes ($8,700)

    All but one of Luque’s career wins have come by finish and his opponent Alvaro Herrera has been finished in all three of his losses. To me, that’s a recipe for some bonus points for Luque.

    Vieira was the TUF Brazil season 4 champion and he beat a guy I also have on my team in his official UFC debut. That win was the first time he’d gone to the judges in one of his wins. I see the fight with Marco Beltran being an all-out balls to the wall brawl with Vieira being the last one standing.

    Roy Nelson should score a late KO or submission over Derrick Lewis. Nelson is tough to finish and Lewis will probably gas out before getting caught by a shot that drops him.

    I’m surprised Alberto Mina is an underdog against the aging Mike Pyle. Mina scored a finish in his UFC debut and then beat a tough vet in Yoshihiro Akiyama in his follow-up. He’s unbeaten and an impressive finish over a another vet like Pyle should move him up the ranks.

    My last pick is more a pick against Anthony Birchak than for Dileno Lopes. Birchak has been finished in the first round of two of his last three fights. And Lopes has a KO or sub in eight of his last nine wins. 

    PEACH MACHINE- Rafael Dos Anjos ($11,000), Alan Jouban ($10,000), Derrick Lewis ($9,600), Alberto Mina ($9,500), Marco Beltran ($9,200)

    I hate this card, but I love Rafael Dos Anjos. He’s really good and will most likely be one of the most dominant champions in UFC history after it’s all said and done.

    Nelson is done and Lewis will KO him. I hate Pyle so I’m picking Mina. Jouban is handsome. I just love Carlos Beltran of the NY Yankees and I assume Marco is related. Play this lineup!

  • JNPO: MMA/hip-hop journalist Andreas Hale on Nate, Aljamain, WWE brand split

    On the 39th Josh Nason’s Punch-Out, longtime MMA and hip-hop journalist Andreas Hale (Yahoo, The Source, Sherdog, many more) drops by to talk NJPW Best of the Super Juniors, WWE brand split, UFC’s fun Memorial Day weekend show, Nate Diaz, the state of boxing, and tons more.

    > Listen to the show below by clicking the link or saving to your computer.

    In this hour-long edition, the guys jumped into the following:

    – How pro wrestling was Andreas’ gateway drug into other combat sports

    – What he’s watching and why he’s watching it

    – Talk on the WWE brand split and why both guys are skeptical of the outcome

    – Last weekend’s disaster of a Bellator middleweight title fight and why their belts don’t seem to matter

    – How UFC and Bellator fail on their community outreach programs

    – Whether Kimbo Slice resonates with the black community

    – Thoughts on Nate Diaz and his Wednesday interview with Ariel Helwani

    – Andreas’ thoughts on the boxing scene and the plethora of PBC shows

    – What both guys are excited about with this weekend’s UFC Fox Sports One show on Memorial Day

    Beers. Food. You. Us. Let’s go.

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  • Anderson Silva should still be too good for Michael Bisping

    Simply put, Anderson Silva vs. Michael Bisping is the biggest fight the UFC has promoted in Britain since 2008.

    In terms of fan anticipation, it may be even bigger than title fights involving BJ Penn or Quinton Jackson as it sees the sport’s greatest ever champion test its greatest British fighter’s record of never having been defeated in his home country. While there may be no gold on the line, the stakes are high. Either man will proceed to further lucrative headlining appearances if they win, while a loss may bring their career to an end.

    I consider myself second to nobody in my admiration for Bisping, but it’s hard to argue against the idea that at his best, Silva would have been too good for Britain’s finest. The former middleweight champion is such a nightmare matchup for “The Count” that predicting his route to victory in such a hypothetical fight becomes next to impossible due to the surplus of options.

    A prime Silva would have dominated the stand-up game due to having greater knockout power, superior striking technique, and more durability. But it’s not just the stand-game where we the Brazilian would have the edge over the Brit. As seen in his fights against Rashad Evans and Chael Sonnen, Bisping has the defensive wrestling to stop a takedown but he’s poor at evading or escaping the clinch. And while it’s frustrating to be held upright by a former collegiate wrestler that becomes a lethal weakness against a Muay Thai master. It’s very easy seeing a fight between Silva and Bisping end in a similar fashion to the Brazilian’s second fight against Rich Franklin. And should the fight go to the ground, Silva has the superior grappling skills, and would be favoured to secure the submission.  

    Of course, Silva’s prime was a long time ago and it’s been almost three years since he was dethroned as middleweight champion. That fact has made some people overconfident about Bisping’s chances. The reality is that both men are approaching the end of their careers. Both men are not just older than either Luke Rockhold or Chris Weidman, but have significantly more fights than either man. (Bisping alone has more total fights than Rockhold and Weidman combined.) And both men have had to come back from significant health problems, whether it be Silva’s broken leg or Bisping’s detached retina.

    The question is whether Silva can regain something of the spark that was clearly absent in his fight against Nick Diaz. While the Brazilian won a convincing (and of course tainted) victory, it was a lifeless performance from a man who seemed to be going through the motions. That he couldn’t knock out or even significantly hurt an opponent who was giving up so much size raises questions about the remaining potency of his striking.

    And yet, I still believe that Anderson Silva will win Saturday given that Bisping has stylistic similarities with Diaz. While Bisping is a more traditional kickboxer, he shares with the American the ability to grind down his opponents through volume striking due to superior conditioning. The key difference is that whereas Diaz is always looking to come forward, Bisping often falls back against opponents with significant striking power. Remember that Bisping let a much diminished Wanderlei Silva escape with a victory due to refusing to engage in the pocket. Providing Silva can intimidate Bisping early on, the fight could quickly descend into a long-distance war of attrition that would play to the more precise and illusive Silva’s strengths.

    It’s for that reason that Bisping’s best hope for a victory is that in his time away, Silva has further deteriorated from the diminished fighter we saw at UFC 183. It’s possible, but just as plausible, that Silva took the Diaz fight too soon after his leg surgery and that the past year has given his body and mind chance to fully heal from what he went through.

    Should Silva show up in anything approaching good condition, he will likely end not just Bisping’s undefeated home record but his outstanding hopes of finally receiving a UFC title shot.

    Will Cooling is a freelance writer who writes on combat sports for Fighting Spirit Magazine, pop culture for Geeky Monkey and politics at It Could Be Said! He’ll be covering UFC Fight Night London for Wrestling Observer live from cageside.

  • UFC Fight Night 82 Hendricks vs Thompson: Wrestling Observer Panel Picks

    If I’ve learned one thing in the world of UFC in 2016, it’s that UFC thinks that the value of a Fabricio Werdum fight is about $60. I say this because tonight’s card was originally scheduled for PPV and when the Werdum heavyweight title defence was pulled from the card, it became a free television show. As a PPV, this show would’ve been a tough sell but as a free card, it’s pretty damned good.

    Former welterweight champion Johny Hendricks returns to the Octagon on his road back to the title, a rising heavyweight takes on a fan favorite but fading contender in Roy Nelson, two former Strikeforce fighters square off with title contention or irrelevancy on line, and two top 10 flyweights will meet in what is perhaps the most relevant fight on the show in terms of an immediate title contender. In the last of our panel picks, two former welterweights move down a weight class in an effort to jumpstart their careers. All of this AND Mickey Gall facing the King of Pop to get a chance to face former WWE Champion CM Punk in the summer!

    Here’s our panel with the 2016 records in parenthesis. We’ve also added a running tally of the records of the favorites going into the fights and the panel consensus picks:

    • John Pollock (11-4; .733) – Fight Network analyst, Live Audio Wrestling co-host, MMA Report co-host
    • Mike Sawyer (10-5; .667) – Tough Talk MMA
    • Josh Nason (10-5; .667) – Host of Josh Nason’s Punch Out; writer/editor WrestlingObserver.com , WON Twitter guy
    • Steve Juon (9-6; .600) – MMA Mania/Wrestling Observer writer. Angry Marks founder
    • Mike Sempervive (9-6; .600) – Wrestling Observer Live and Big Audio Nightmare co-host
    • Ryan Frederick (9-6; .600) – WrestlingObserver.com UFC reporter, WON Twitter guy
    • Consensus picks (8-6; .571)
    • Favorites (8-7; .533)
    • Dave Meltzer (8-7; .533)– Wrestling Observer founder
    • Front Row Brian (7-8; .467) – MMA newsbreaker, beloved internet personality, Podcast host
    • Paul Fontaine (7-8; .467) – MMADraws.com founder, WrestlingObserver.com writer
    • David Bixenspan (7-8; .467) – Figure Four Weekly writer, podcast host

    Johny Hendricks (17-3) vs Steven Thompson (11-1)
    Welterweights

    Remember Johny Hendricks? The guy who’s struggled the last couple of years with his weight? The guy who took GSP to the limit in his final fight, with many believing he actually won the fight? The guy who had a 2 fight, 10 round series with Robbie Lawler that was as even as it could possibly be, coming out of the end of it without his title? Ya, that guy. He’s back and taking on a Karate fighter with a lot of hype and an impressive record and he’s out to prove that he should get the next shot at the 170 lb title. Thompson can knock out anyone with his kicks out of nowhere and this should be a great main event. It’s the first time Hendricks has fought on free TV in almost four years in an interesting note. Our panel does not think there’s much of a doubt in this one.

    Hendricks (sizable favorite): Sempervive, Nason, Sawyer, Pollock, Front Row Brian, Frederick, Juon, Fontaine, Bix, Meltzer

    Roy Nelson (20-12) vs Jared Rosholt (14-2)
    Heavyweights

    For the 2nd straight week, we have Heavyweights squaring off in the co-main event. Nelson was the TUF 10 champion, which seems like eons ago. In more recent times, he’s lost 6 of his last 7 fights but he’s also fought guys ranked ahead of him for the most part. Rosholt has the exact opposite UFC record, going 6-1 against mostly guys at or below his level although he did score a win over big Stefan Struve in his last fight. But he’s done so in non-typical Heavyweight fashion, grinding out decision wins in all but one of those fights. With a win over Nelson, he’ll likely move into the top 10 and start facing guys at the top of the division.

    Nelson (moderate favorite): Sempervive, Sawyer, Pollock, Frederick, Meltzer
    Rosholt: Nason, Front Row Brian, Juon, Fontaine, Bix

    Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante (12-6) vs Ovince St Preux (18-7)
    Light Heavyweights

    Feijao has struggled since coming over from Strikeforce when UFC absorbed the company in 2013. He’s got just one win in 4 UFC fights and this won’t get any easier for him tonight. OSP has fought twice as many times in the same time frame and has a 6-2 record, which propelled him into the top 10. His last 5 wins have all been by finish, with 4 of them coming in the first round. It’s unlikely that either of these guys will ever contend for a title but there should be some great action here. Once  again, there’s no doubt amongst our panel that OSP will emerge victorious. 

    OSP (big favorite): Sempervive, Nason, Sawyer, Pollock, Front Row Brian, Frederick, Juon, Fontaine, Bix, Meltzer

    Joseph Benavidez (23-4) vs Zach Makovsky (19-6)
    Flyweights

    If flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson didn’t exist, Benavidez would be unbeaten in the UFC and in fact going back to a split decision loss to current Bantamweight Champion Dominick Cruz in WEC in 2010. Sandwiched around his 11 wins in that time are two losses to Johnson. It’s tough to justify giving him a third shot at the belt but Benavidez is doing what he can to make that happen. His opponent, Makosvsky, should be someone he can handle as he comes in with losses in 2 of his last 3 fights. Benavidez really has almost nothing to gain here with a win but everything to lose.

    Benavidez (huge favorite): Sempervive, Nason, Sawyer, Pollock, Front Row Brian, Frederick, Juon, Bix, Meltzer
    Makovsky: Fontaine

    Josh Burkman (27-12) vs KJ Noons (13-8)
    Lightweights

    Burkman has had some fun fights since returning to UFC but unfortunately for him, he’s failed to score a victory and has been finished his last two times out. This has led him to make the drop to 155 lbs for the first time in his career as he hopes to get back on the winning track. In fact, his last UFC win was in 2007 and since that time, he’s lost 6 times in the Octagon (with one later being changed to a no-contest). Noons has fought 2 of his last 3 fights at Welterweight but returns to his more familiar weight class here. The former Elite XC Lightweight Champion is one of only two fighters to have KO’d Nick Diaz and has the power to stop anyone in the division.

    Burkman (moderate favorite) – Sempervive, Nason, Sawyer, Pollock, Front Row Brian, Frederick, Juon, Bix, Meltzer
    Noons: Fontaine

    Two unanimous picks and two near-unanimous picks here and we’re split right down the middle in the co-main event.

    *****

  • JNPO: 5 things to watch for at UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Van Zant

    With three UFC events in three days, who needs sleep?

    For the next three days, JNPO host Josh Nason will do 15-minute preview shows highlighting five things to look for on each show. With UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Van Zant set to go live in just a few hours, the first one has arrived.

    Your five things: 

    – Why the main event of Paige Van Zant vs. Rose Namajunas is so damn fun

    – Why Josh is giving the edge to Michael Chiesa in his very important co-main event battle against Jim Miller

    – How the reaction for Sage Northcutt’s second trip into the Octagon is going to be something to watch for

    – Why the excitement level of John Howard vs. Tim Means is a coin flip

    – The importance of the buried Aljamain Sterling-Johnny Eduardo prelims fight

    Listen by clicking below or right clicking to save. Get ready for three days of fight heaven!

    *****

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