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  • UFC Fight Night 78 Monterrey live results: Neil Magny vs. Kelvin Gastelum

    Welcome to WrestlingObserver.com’s live coverage of UFC Fight Night 78: Magny vs. Gastelum from Arena Monterrey in Monterrey, Mexico. The event is headlined by a five-round welterweight bout as 13th-ranked Neil Magny takes on 15th-ranked and former “TUF” winner Kelvin Gastelum. Also on the card, in the co-main event, it is a featherweight bout as former title challenger Ricardo Lamas welcomes original “TUF” winner, Diego Sanchez, back to the Octagon in another new weight class, and flyweights Jussier Formiga and Henry Cejudo square off in a potential title eliminator bout. The action kicks off with preliminary card fights at 6:30 PM eastern time on UFC Fight Pass. The action moves over to FS1 at 8 PM eastern time with additional preliminary fights before the main card kicks off at 10 PM eastern time.

    UFC Fight Night 78 Weigh-In Results
    UFC Fight Night 78 5 Storylines To Watch
    UFC Fight Night 78 DFS Playbook
    UFC Fight Night 78 By The Numbers
    UFC Fight Night 78 Panel Picks

    Coverage provided by Dave Meltzer

    PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC FIGHT PASS- 6:30 PM ET/3:30 PM PT)

    LIGHTWEIGHTS- VALMIR LAZARO (13-3, 1-1 UFC) VS. MICHEL PRAZERES (18-2, 2-2 UFC)

    First round: Mini-Brock Gary Copeland as referee tonight.  Lazaro with a low kick.  Low kick back by Prezeres.  Now Lazaro with a low kick.  Left by Prezeres.  Good low kick by Lazaro.  Lazaro landing jabs.  Another jab by Lazaro.  Lazaro continues to jab.  Right by Prezeres.  Good right by Prezeres.  He tried to follow with a takedown and got him down. .  But Lazaro right back up.  No damage was done on the ground.  Prezeres went for another takedown and Lazaro easily evaded it.  Prezeres with a right and left.  Low kick by Lazaro.  Lazaro 10-9 good round.

    Second round: Body kick by Prezeres.  Prezeres went for a takedown but Lazaro landed on top.  Copeland ordered a standup.  Prezeres landed a right.  He shot for a takedown but and got him down but Lazaro was right back up.  Lazaro landing jabs again.  Prezeres took him down but Lazaro right back up.  Close round, 20-18 Lazaro.

    Third round: Lazaro’s corner told him it was 1-1, which is probably a good thing to tell him because it could be and he can’t think he’s got it won.  They hugged before the round started.  Low kick by Lazaro.  Nice left by Prezeres.  Missed on a huge right.  Prezeres missing punches.  Left by Prezeres.  Prezers moving in for a takedown.  Prezeres got him down but Lazaro right back up.  Lazaro ended up blocking a takedown and landing on top.   The ref ordered a standup with 37 seconds left.  Prezeres missed another takedown.  Lazaro’s round I’ve got 30-27.

    Scores: 29-28 Prezeres 29-28 Lazaro 29-28 Prezeres.  Prezeres very lucky.  Bad call.

    LIGHTWEIGHTS- CESAR ARZAMENDIA (7-1, 0-0 UFC) VS. POLO REYES (3-1, 0-0 UFC)

    First round: Arzamendia from Paraguay, Reyes from Mexico.  They are both of TUF Latin America.  Both swinging.  Low kick by Arzamendia.  Knees by Arzamendia.  Arzamendia claimed there was a low blow.  Armzamendia took him down but Reyes right back up.  Another takedown by Arzamendia.  Another takedown by Arzamendia.  Reyes back up.  Spin kick to the body by Reyes.  Crowd pretty hot for this with a Mexican in the match.  A double leg takedown by Arzamendia.  Left by Reyes knocked him out.  He broke a clinch and landed  a left to the jaw for the knockout.   3:42

    WELTERWEIGHTS- VERNON RAMOS (3-0, 0-0 UFC) VS. ALVARO HERRERA (8-3, 0-0 UFC)

    First round: Ramos from Panama, Herrera from Guadalajara.  Both off TUF Latin America.  Herrera landed punches right away and it was over.  Left, a right uppercut and another right behind the ear and it’s over as Ramos face planted. :30 

    PRELIMINARY CARD (FS1- 8 PM ET/5 PM PT)

    FEATHERWEIGHTS- GABRIEL BENITEZ (18-4, 2-0 UFC) VS. ANDRE FILI (14-3, 2-2 UFC)

    First round:  Benitez the crowd favorite from Tijuana.  Benitez known for ridiculous kicks.  Benitez landing low kicks.  Left by Benitez.  Fili with a body kick.  Fili with a low kick.  High kick by Fili.  Fili with a takedown.  Head kick by Fili and he finished him with a flurry of punches to the chagrin of the crowd.  It was  pair of right high kicks and a series of punches before Benitez could recover, he went down and it was stopped. 

    BANTAMWEIGHTS- SCOTT JORGENSEN (15-11, 4-7 UFC) VS. ALEJANDRO PEREZ (15-6, 1-1 UFC)

    First round:    Perez with a low kick.  Perez with another low kick.  Jorgensen tried for a akedown but Perez threw him off.  Jorgensen landed a right.  Jorgensen took him down.  Perez back up.  Another takedown by Jorgensen.  Perez back up again.  Right by Jorgensen.  High kick by Jorgensen missed.  Jorgensen with a right.  Low kick by Perez.  Low kick by Jorgensen.  Good low kick by Perez.  Jorgensn is hurt and may not be able to continue.  Perez 10-9.

    Second round:   Jorgensen came out but can barely walk.  He fell down, this fight needs to be stopped.  He got up.  Low kick by Perez.   Perez kicking the right leg, which is the good leg.  Perez continues to kick the right leg.  Jorgensen’s calf has a huge bruise.  Perez with a body kick.  Perez with more kicks to the right leg.  Right and left by Jorgensen.  Perez with a body shot.  Perez swept his leg  but Jorgensen got back up.  Body kick by Perez.  It’s kind of amazing the fight is still going.  Jorgensen just collapsed, his leg gave out and he tapped.

    WELTERWEIGHTS- HECTOR URBINA (17-8-1, 1-0 UFC) VS. BARTOSZ FABINSKI (12-2, 1-0 UFC)

    First round:  Fabinski took him right down.  Fabinski with punches and elbows from the top.  Mario Yamasaki stood them up.  I have no idea why since Fabinski was busy from the top.  Fabinski then took him right down again.  Fabinski landing elbows.  Urbina tred a triangle but Fabinski out of it easily.  10-9 Fabinski

    Second round:  Urbina with a knee and Fabinski took him down.  Another takedown by Fabinski.  He’s moved to side control.  Urbina reversed  and throwing punches but Fabinski back up.  Both trading punches.   Urbina missed a high kick.  Urbina bleeding from the left eye.  They stopped the fight for the doctor to check  the cut.  The cut is on the eye lid.  The doctor allowed it to continue.  Another  takedown by Fabinski.  Fabinski ‘s round 20-18.

    Third round:  The cut was caused by a head–butt.  Urbina throwing punches and went for a guillotine.  Fabinski took him down again. Urbina trying to use the guillotine to sweep.  Urbina has his legs tied up as well.  Fabinski escaped  and on top.  Fabinski  with some punches.  Now Urbina trying for a Kimura.  Boring round.  Urbina tried to sweep but Fabinski  blocked it and remained on top.  Fabinski has his back.  Urbina landing elbows as Fabinski tried for takedown.  Urbina throwing punches.  Urbina’s round so 29-28 FAbinski.

    Scores:  29-28, 30-27 and 30-27 for Fabinski

    BANTAMWEIGHTS- ERIK PEREZ (14-6, 4-2 UFC) VS. TAYLOR LAPILUS (10-1, 2-0 UFC)

    First round:  Perez is a big favorite since he’s from Monterrey.  Crowd going crazy for him.  Lapilus with a body kick.  Nice left by Lapilus.  Knee to the body by Lapilus.  Low kick by Lapilus.  Body kick by Lapilus.  Fans were booing.  Low kick by Lapilus.  Lapilus with a  body kick.  Low kick by Lapilus.  Perez landed a right.  Perez had a leg but couldn’t take him down.  Perez landed a series of punches  late.  Perez landed another combo.  Perez picked him up at the buzzer, so the slam didn’t count.  Lapilus 10-9

    Second round:  Lapilus landed some punches and Perez back with a right.  Lapilus working for a guillotine.  Perez escaped and on top.  Crowd popped big for that.  Perez is landing shots to the body from the top.   Perez with lots of body shots.  Perez with body shots and elbows.  Perez’s round so 19-19 after two.  

    Third round:  Crowd real hot knowing it’s even.  Loud “Mexico” chants.  Head kick by Perez.  Lapilus went for a takedown.  Perez defending well.  Perez has him against the fence.  Perez took him down.  Both scrambling and Perez standing .  Left and knee by Lapilus.  Perez in with a right.  Left by Lapilus.  Perez with another takedown.  Perez not doing much but staying on top.  Perez with body shots now.  Perez elbowing the thigh.   Perez is mostly holding him down.  Perez with some elbows.  Perez with body shots.   Perez should win 29-28, really that’s the only score possible.

    Scores:   Perez is wearing a mask.  All three have is 29-28 Perez.

    MAIN CARD (FS1- 10 PM ET/7 PM PT)

    LIGHTWEIGHTS- EFRAIN ESCUDERO (24-9, 5-5 UFC) VS. LEANDRO SILVA (18-2-1 1 NC, 2-2 1 NC UFC)

    First round:  Body kick by Silva.  Escuedero with a  body kick.  Left by Silva.  Body kick by Escudero and one back by Silva   Silva land a series of punches.  Head kick by Sivla.  Escudero worked for a takedown but didn’t get it.  Escudero in with a punch.  Nice right by Escudero and moved in for a takedown attempt.  Silva landed a nice left at the end of the round.  10-9 Sivla

    Second round:  Nice hook kick by Silva but didn’t land solid.  Front kick by Silva.  Body kick by Silva.  Escudero got the takedown.  Escudero took him down again.  Silva got to his feet.  Escudero’s round so 19-19 after two.

    Third round:  Body kick by Silva.  Escudero land some punches.  Left by Silva.  Silva landed jabs.  Escudero trying for a takedown but Silva defended well.  Silva landing punches.  Escuerdo tried a takedown but didn’t get it.  Sivla again blocking the takedown.  Right and left by Silva.  Silva got his back on the ground.  Silva 29-28.

    Scores:   All three have it 29-28 Silva. Really the only score possible.  Some boos since Escudero was the crowd favorite.

    TUF: LATIN AMERICA 2 LIGHTWEIGHT FINALS- HORACIO GUTIERREZ (2-1, 0-0 UFC) VS. ENRIQUE BARZOLA (10-2-1, 0-0 UFC)

    First round:  Gutierrez is from Guadalajara so that makes him the favorite.  This is the final of the current TUF Latin America season.  Low kick by Gutierrez.  Another low kick by Gutierrez.   Low kick by Gutierrez.  Beautiful back suplex by Barzola.  Barzola has his back.  Another takedown by Barzola.  Gutierrez up and Barzola tripped him  back down.   Barzola with a hard punch on the ground.   10-9 Barzola.

    Second round:  Takedown right away by Barzola.  Gutierrez bleeding.  Barzola bleeding as well.  Barzola with some elbows.  Some elbows to the body and head.  10-8 round, 20-17 Barzola.

    Third round:  Barzola with another takedown.  Barzola with elbows to the head and punches to the body.  More elbows by Barzola.   Another 10-8 round for Barzola, 30-25.

    Scores:   30-27, 30-27 and 30-26 for Barzola.

    TUF: LATIN AMERICA 2 WELTERWEIGHT FINALS- ERICK MONTANO (6-3, 0-0 UFC) VS. ENRIQUE MARIN (8-2, 0-0 UFC)

    First round:  This is the TUF Latin America finals in the welterweight division.  Montano is from Mexico City,  so he’s the crowd favorite.  Montano with a body kick and Marin back with some punches.  Nice left by Marin.  Montano took him down and Marin reversed to the top.  Side kick by Montano.  Montano went for a takedown but blocked.  Marin  moved in and landed.  Marin 10-9.

    Second round:  Both swinging.  Nice takedown by Marin.  Marin moved to side control.  Body kick by Montano.  Montano throwing kicks.  Marin went for a takedown but Montano blocked it.  Montano landing punches and kicks.  Close round but I’ve got 20-18 Marin.

    Third round:  They hugged before the third round.  These two were best friends on the show.  Montano with a high kick. Montano landed a right and a side kick.  Montano with a body kick.  Marin pushed him against the fence.  He’s just holding him against the cage but doing nothing.  Body kick by Montano.  Right by Montano.  Marin with punches and body kick.  Bodykick by Montano.  Montano took him down.  Crowd booed both guys.   Montano’s round so I’ve got 29-28 Marin.  Could go the other way.  Pretty uneventful fight.

    Scores:  29-28 Marin 29-28 Montano 29-28 Montano

    FLYWEIGHTS- (#3) JUSSIER FORMIGA (18-3, 4-2 UFC) VS. (#5) HENRY CEJUDO (9-0, 3-0 UFC)

    First round:  Cejudo landing punches.  Left and right by Cejudo.  Left by Formiga.  Formiga landed a right.  Trading knees.  Trading more knees from the clinch.  Formiga landed a right.  Hard right by Cejudo.  Cejudo took him down late.  10-9 Cejudo

    Second round:  Right by Cejudo.  Both traded knees from the clinch.  Nice right by Cejudo.  Formiga with a right.  Good low kick by Formiga.  Knee by  Cejudo.  Left by Formiga.  Nice elbow and uppercut by Cejudo.  They traded knees.  Formiga with a jab.  Body kick by Cejudo.  Very close round, Cejudo 20-18.

    Third round:  High kick by Cejudo.  High slam by Cejudo.   Formiga back up.  Knee and elbow by Cejudo.  Low kick by Formiga.  Cejudo pushed him against the fence.  Elbow from the clinch by  Cejudo and a right.   Cejudo 30-27.  Fans booed a little.  Not a good fight at all, Cejudo did nothing to make you excited about a fight with Demetrious Johnson.

    Scores:  30-27 Cejudo 29-28 Formiga 30-27 Cejudo.  Formiga winning would have been a robbery. 

    FEATHERWEIGHTS- (#4) RICARDO LAMAS (15-4, 6-2 UFC) VS. DIEGO SANCHEZ (25-7, 14-7 UFC)

    First round:  Sanchez in with punches.  Nice spin kick by Lamas.  Hard body kick by Lamas. Sanchez started punching back.  Hard body kick by Sanchez.  Lamas missed a spin kick.  Side kick by Lamas.  Sanchez missed a punh.  Lamas with takedown and got his back.  Lamas got his back and throwing knees.  Lamas has his back and Sanchez escaped and is up.  Elbow by Sanchdz.  10-9 Lamas.

    Second round:   Nice left hook by Sanchez.  Lamas took him down.  Lamas hurt him with a low kick.  Lamas landing big punches and low kicks.  Sanchez is in trouble.  Another low kick.  Lamas with a punch.  Lamas with a takedown.  Nice switch by Sanchez.  Lamas reversed and got his back.  Nice reverse by Sanchez.  Really good wrestling here.  Sanchez bleeding for the right eye.  Lamas got his back.  Sanchez escaped and up.  Low kick and punches by Lamas.  Left by Lamas.  Lamas 20-18.

    Third round:   Sanchez with a knee.  Low kick by Lamas.  Spin kick by Lamas and Lamas lost his balance.  Low kick by Lamas . Sanchez is hurt.  Fans chanting for Sanchez.  Spinning elbow by Lamas busted Sanchez up.  Lamas slipped but got up.  Sanchez bleeding badly from the right eye.  Left jab by Lamas.  Left jab by Lamas.  Lamas with a head kick but didn’t really land.  Sanchez with a left hook.  Spin kick by Sanchez missed.  Good fight.  30-27 Lamas.

    Scores:  All three have it 30-27 for Lamas.

    WELTERWEIGHTS- (#13) NEIL MAGNY (16-4, 9-3 UFC) VS. (#15) KELVIN GASTELUM (11-1, 6-1 UFC)

    First round:  Low kick by Gastelum.  Low kick by Gastelum.  Nice high kick and punches by Gastelum.   Nice takedown by Magny and has his back.  Gastelum back up.  Nice throw but Magny reversed to the top.  Magny has his back and working for a choke.  Gastelum out of trouble.  Magny with elbows to the body.  Gastelum up.   Right by Gastelum  Magny 10-9.

    Second round:  Magny landing punches and a front kick.  Body kick by  Gastelum  Front kicks by Magny.  Body kick by Gastelum.   Magny back with punches moving in.  Low kick by Gastelum  Gastelum landed several punches .  Magny now back with punches.  This is a good fight.  Magny got him down.  Gasteljum tried to reverse it but got blocked.  Magny  threw him down and got his back.  Another takedown by Magny.  Magny 20-18.

    Third round:   Magnyu landed a right and moved in.  Magny with more punches moving in.  Magny took him down.  Magny tried for a takedown but it was blocked.  Magny got him down again.  Gastelum right back up.  Gastelum got his back.  Magny took him down.  Gastelum rolled to the top.  Magny 30-27.

    Fourth round:   Magny with punches.  Gastelum decked him with a right, landed punches , has his back.  Gastelum in side control.  Gasetlum with an elbow.  Gastelum back to side control.  Gastelum got his back.  Gastelum dropped him a second time with a left hook.  Magny tried a triangle but Gastelum cleared it.  Magny back up.  Magny looked at the clock.  Magny with a takedown.  Gastelum up.  Magny has his back.  Gastelum 10-8, 38-37 for MAgny

    Fifth round:   Magny landed a right and hurt him.  Big takedown by Gastelum into side control.  Magny back up.  Magny landing punches.  Magny tried a takedown but it was blocked.  Gastelum landing punches.  Gastelum landing more punches.  Body kick by Gastelum  Another body kick by Gastelum.  Magny with a right.  Magny took him down and has his back  Gastelum reversed to the top.  Gastelum  landing punches from the top.  Great fight.  Gastelum’s round.  I have it a 47-47 draw.

    Scores:   48-47 Gastelum 48-47 Magny 48-47 Magny

  • UFC Fight Night 78: Magny vs. Gastelum weigh-in results and live video

    Welcome to WrestlingObserver.com’s live coverage of the UFC Fight Night 78: Magny vs. Gastelum weigh-ins from Arena Monterrey in Monterrey, Mexico kicking off at 6 PM eastern time. The event airs on Saturday on FS1 at 10 PM eastern time. Preliminary card action kicks off on UFC Fight Pass at 6:30 PM eastern time before moving over to FS1 at 8 PM eastern time. This will be the UFC’s debut in Monterrey, and the Octagon’s third overall trip to Mexico.

    The event will be headlined by a five-round welterweight bout as Neil Magny fights for the fifth time in 2015, taking a short-notice bout as an injury replacement for Matt Brown, to take on Kelvin Gastelum, who makes his return to the welterweight division. Both men are competing in their first headline bout as UFC competitors. In the co-main event, it will be former featherweight title challenger Ricardo Lamas taking on the last man standing from the original “Ultimate Fighter”, Diego Sanchez, who moves down to 145 pounds, the fourth weight class he has competed in during his UFC career. Also on the card is a flyweight title eliminator as Jussier Formiga takes on Olympic gold medalist Henry Cejudo, as well as the finals of this season of “The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America 2”.

    MAIN CARD (FS1- 10 PM ET/7 PM PT):
    Neil Magny (171) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (171)
    Ricardo Lamas (146) vs. Diego Sanchez (145)
    Jussier Formiga (126) vs. Henry Cejudo (126)
    Erick Montano (169) vs. Enrique Marin (170) – TUF: Latin America 2 Welterweight Finals
    Horacio Gutierrez (154) vs. Enrique Barzola (155) – TUF: Latin America 2 Lightweight Finals
    Efrain Escudero (156) vs. Leandro Silva (155)

    PRELIMINARY CARD (FS1- 8 PM ET/5 PM PT):
    Erik Perez (136) vs. Taylor Lapilus (136)
    Hector Urbina (171) vs. Bartosz Fabinski (170)
    Scott Jorgensen (135.5) vs. Alejandro Perez (135.5)
    Gabriel Benitez (145) vs. Andre Fili (145)

    PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC FIGHT PASS- 6:30 PM ET/3:30 PM PT):
    Vernon Ramos (170) vs. Alvaro Herrera (171)
    Cesar Arzamendia (155) vs. Polo Reyes (155)
    Valmir Lazaro (156) vs. Michel Prazeres (155)

    *Everyone made weight with no issues, including Gastelum and Cejudo, who have had previous issues, and Sanchez, who was moving down to featherweight for the first time.

  • UFC Fight Night 78 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

    The Octagon travels to Monterrey, Mexico for UFC Fight Night 78 on Saturday night, the third straight weekend of UFC action, with a main event of welterweight action as Neil Magny takes on Kelvin Gastelum. Below are our studs of the night, our value picks of the night, and fighters you should avoid on the night to help fill out your DraftKings lineups.

    STUDS

    Kelvin Gastelum ($10,900)

    Kelvin Gastelum is coming into his headline bout against Neil Magny with a lot of expectations on his shoulders, and he is hoping to live up to them. He is a good play against Magny, who comes into the fight on short notice as an injury replacement. Magny is solid competition, but one who has faltered when faced with the high-level competition. Magny is ranked based on the fact he has gone 8-1 in his last nine fights, but that has been against unranked competition, aside from the loss to Demian Maia. In that loss to Maia, Magny was finished, like he has in three of his four losses. Gastelum is a pressure fighter who will land a lot of punches, as long as he can get inside Magny’s reach, and he has solid submission skills. On a card where there might be a lot of decisions, Gastelum is a good bet to score a finish.

    Andre Fili ($10,700)

    Andre Fili makes his return to the Octagon after being out of action for eight months when he takes on Gabriel Benitez. Fili has been up-and-down during his UFC tenure but he has the chance to make a run as a legitmate 145-pound prospect. He has been submitted in both of his UFC losses, but he has looked good in his UFC wins, landing a lot of punches and getting one finish. He has an opponent in Gabriel Benitez who has won both of his UFC bouts, but hasn’t looked too great against the lower competition. Fili is a big step up in competition. Fili has a good chance to get a lot of points and score a finish.

    VALUE PICKS

    Taylor Lapilus ($9,400)

    Taylor Lapilus is a fast-rising bantamweight prospect who will get the toughest test of his career when he takes on Erik Perez. Perez is coming off a 17-month layoff when he makes his return, and he is coming off of being submitted by Bryan Caraway. There are some holes in the skills of Perez, and Lapilus is someone who can exploit them. Lapilus has good power and a very solid submission game, and he is good value as his price. He has the tools to give Perez some fits during the fight, and the chance to rack up some points.

    Hector Urbina ($8,900)

    Hector Urbina is coming into his fight against Bartosz Fabinski as a big underdog despite having won his last two fights by stoppage. Fabinski has won five straight fights and has eight knockout wins in his career, but he didn’t look like someone who was looking to finish when he got his decision win over Garreth McLellan in his UFC debut. He is also going into enemy territory taking on Urbina in Mexico. Urbina comes from a good camp in American Top Team, and he has scored 15 of his 17 wins by stoppage. Urbina, at his salary, is a very solid play that gives you good opportunity to spend up on higher-priced fighters.

    AVOID

    Ricardo Lamas ($11,200)

    Ricardo Lamas is the biggest favorite on this card and thus has the highest salary on the card. That makes it seem like he is a sure bet to win. However, he is fighting Diego Sanchez. Sanchez initiates brawls that make the job of the judges hard. He wins fights he probably should lose on the scorecards, and they are always too close for comfort. Sanchez is also extremely tough to finish, as only B.J. Penn has been able to do so, and that was due to a huge cut. Sanchez is coming off a long layoff and is making the move down to featherweight, and Lamas is a tough opponent for his first time out. Sanchez’ style and relentless aggression make it hard for me to suggest using Lamas, so I am avoiding him and spending my money elsewhere.

    Jussier Formiga ($8,300)

    Jussier Formiga has the second-cheapest salary for all of the fighters on the card when he takes on Henry Cejudo. For being ranked third in his division, not many are giving him much of a chance against Cejudo on Saturday night. There is good reason for that as Formiga has faltered against top-level competition, and he doesn’t score a lot of points in fantasy games as it is. He will likely be taken down a lot and probably will eat a lot of punches, and probably won’t be able to land a lot of punches either. He probably won’t be able to finish Cejudo either, much less defeat him. Only use Formiga if you are in a must-need situation as I will avoid him.

    OUR LINE-UPS

    RYAN FREDERICK- Henry Cejudo ($11,100), Kelvin Gastelum ($10,900), Vernon Ramos ($10,300), Hector Urbina ($8,900), Erick Montano ($8,800)

    I like Kelvin Gastelum and Hector Urbina for the reasons I stated above. I see them as having good chances at scoring finish wins in the early rounds, primarily by submission. I like Henry Cejudo to get a win, and he wants that title shot. He has an opponent in Jussier Formiga who can be finished, and Cejudo will be looking to score takedowns and finish it with ground-and-pound. Vernon Ramos is coming off of “TUF: Latin America 2” and has just three professional fights, but all three have been submission wins, and he gets an opponent who hasn’t fought since 2012. Erick Montano is a finalist of “TUF: Latin America 2”, and while he is the underdog against Enrique Marin, he has scored all six of his wins by stoppage, with five in the first round, and both of his wins on the show came by first-round stoppage. I like him at his cheap salary.

    PAUL FONTAINE- Ricardo Lamas ($11,200), Henry Cejudo ($11,100), Efrain Escudero ($9,500), Alejandro Perez ($9,200), Gabriel Benitez ($8,700)

    Lamas is about as close to a lock as there is on this card. Sanchez is WAY beyond his prime and would have losses in 4 of his last 5 fights if any of the judges had  actually watched his fight with Ross Pearson. Lamas has only lost to the champion Jose Aldo and #2 contender Chad Mendes in the last 4 1/2 years. He should make quick work of Sanchez here. Henry Cejudo has a tough test in Jussier Formiga who will be in a title eliminator for the third time. But Cejudo is trying to earn a title shot so expect him to win and in impressive fashion. He should land a lot of strikes in a 3 round war and score the win. Alejandro Perez is one of the top Mexican prospects and looks to be in somewhat of a showcase fight against Scott Jorgensen, who has lost 5 of his last 6 fights and may not be long for this sport. I’m taking a bit of a chance on Gabriel Benitez but he is on a 2 fight win streak and is  used to fighting in Mexico (which could be a big factor here). His opponent, Andre Fili, has a mediocre UFC record although he is the more expensive fighter  for your roster. My last pick is veteran Efrain Escudero who has won two straight since losing in his UFC return last year. He has looked great, even in that loss, and will be cheered on by the Mexican crowd and should be able to score a win over the Brazilian Leandro Silva.

    PEACH MACHINE- Ricardo Lamas ($11,200), Kelvin Gastelum ($10,900), Leandro Silva ($9,900), Alejandro Perez ($9,200), Gabriel Benitez ($8,700)

    I like Gastelum.  I think he’s going to dominate Magny, but it could take all five rounds, so I’m predicting big points from Gastelum.  I don’t like Escudero.  He’s really inconsistent and disappointing.  I’m taking Silva to beat him.  Ricardo Lamas and Sanchez are going to have a war.  I think Sanchez is done but will be a hard out.  I’m making the same argument against Jorgensen.  He’s done but will be a tough out for Perez.  Benitez over Fili.  I’m not convinced Fili is any good.

  • UFC Fight Night 78 Preview: 5 storylines to watch, betting odds & predictions

    The UFC returns for the third straight weekend as they debut in a new city as the Octagon travels to Mexico for the third time. It will be UFC Fight Night 78, which will also serve as the finale for The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America 2 when the UFC invades Monterrey for the first time this Saturday night. The main card airs on FS1 starting at 10 PM eastern time, with preliminary action kicking off on UFC Fight Pass at 6:30 PM eastern time before moving over to FS1 at 8 PM eastern time. We will have coverage all weekend here.

    The event will be headlined by a five-round welterweight bout as Neil Magny steps up, yet again, on short notice to take on Kelvin Gastelum, who looks to regain his traction in his return to the welterweight division. In the co-main event, it will be former featherweight title challenger Ricardo Lamas taking on the last man standing from the original TUF, Diego Sanchez. Also on the card is a potential flyweight title eliminator bout as Jussier Formiga takes on Olympic gold medalist Henry Cejudo. Let’s take a closer look at the night’s action and give you five storylines to keep an eye on during UFC Fight Night 78 on Saturday night.

    1. Will Kelvin Gastelum get back on track in the welterweight division in the main event?

    Kelvin Gastelum makes his return to the welterweight division in the main event of Saturday night’s UFC Fight Night 78 event, his first fight back at 170 pounds since missing weight badly for his bout against Tyron Woodley at UFC 183 in January. Gastelum has fought since then, scoring a dominant TKO win over Nate Marquardt as a middleweight at UFC 188 in June, but pleaded his case to UFC management to go back down to 170 pounds. They’re letting him, but another case of missing weight and he’ll be done as a welterweight. Gastelum has had the issues making the welterweight limit, officially missing weight twice and coming close a couple of other times. He says he has the issues under control, but that truly remains to be seen. If he has those issues taken care of, at 24-years-old, Gastelum has the chance to become a very serious threat in the division.

    Gastelum has just one loss in his career, to Woodley, but it was a close split decision loss that Gastelum almost won. He has scored eleven wins in his career, with eight coming by stoppage. He is the youngest winner of “The Ultimate Fighter” in show history, and is a huge prospect making his first main event appearance. His opponent, Neil Magny, is also making his first headline appearance as he fights for the fifth time this year, taking the fight on short notice as an injury replacement for Matt Brown. Magny is known as the man to call in the welterweight division to take a short-notice opportunity, as this will be his second straight year to fight five times. He won all five of his fights in 2014, and he has gone 3-1 in his four 2014 bouts. His lone loss over the past two calendar years came to Demian Maia at UFC 190 in August, a bout that Magny was outclassed in. For all of Magny’s success over the past two years, he has only fought one fighter that was ranked at the time of the fight- Maia. Gastelum will be the second as Magny looks for his second straight win after defeating Erick Silva in August, just three weeks after his loss to Maia, in another bout he took on short notice.

    Gastelum is a strong prospect and has the chance to be fighting for the title down the line if he can keep his weight issues in check. His size makes him better suited for the welterweight division, where he will be the relative same size as his opponents. It’s important for him to keep his weight in check. As far as his fight against Magny, it will be an interesting test. Magny isn’t a flashy fighter, but he gets the job done well. He has some decent power, but it has been showcased against lower-level competition. Magny will have a nine-inch reach advantage over Gastelum, which he will need to use to keep Gastelum on the outside. Gastelum is a solid wrestler and has some good power in his hands as well. Both men land a lot of strikes, and Gastelum eats a lot of punches. Neither man have gone 25 minutes. Gastelum, with the huge cut, may not have the energy to make it. Magny, with the short notice, may not either. This is a decent fight to make on short notice, but I like Gastelum to get the job done and move back up the rankings.

    2. How much fight does Diego Sanchez have left?

    And then there was one. Diego Sanchez is the last man standing in the UFC from the original cast of “The Ultimate Fighter” after the recent retirement of Mike Swick and the UFC departure of Josh Koscheck. Sanchez makes his long-awaited return on Saturday night in the co-main event, and in doing so, he will join another “TUF” alum, Kenny Florian, as a fighter to compete in four different weight classes in UFC competition as he makes the move to the featherweight division. It is an interesting time for a fighter to be dropping down with the IV ban, and with a long history of injuries, it is unsure how much fight Sanchez has left. He is 2-3 in his last five fights, but the two wins were split decisions that could’ve gone either way, so we are looking at a fighter that could very well have been on a five-fight losing skid. Sanchez is still only 33-years-old, but after having been with the UFC thru some 282 events, we may be seeing the end of the road for “The Nightmare”.

    Sanchez will take on former featherweight title challenger Ricardo Lamas, the fourth-ranked fighter at 145 pounds in the UFC. Lamas is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Chad Mendes in April, and is looking to erase the sting of his first stoppage loss inside the Octagon. It is a tough first outing for Sanchez at 145 pounds, but we are talking about one of the most experienced fighters in the UFC. Only a handful of fighters have had more time inside the Octagon than Sanchez, who has fought for a title and fought in a main event seven times, and has been in countless “Fight Of The Year” fights. Sanchez has a penchant for having extremely close fights, and most have gone his way. This will probably be another close fight as both land solid punches, and it will likely stay on the feet. It will be a chess match, but at this stage, Lamas is simply a better fighter. Unless we see the Diego Sanchez of old, it will be Lamas walking away with the win.

    3. Who will secure the next title shot at 125 pounds when Jussier Formiga and Henry Cejudo square off?

    For all intents and purposes, the flyweight bout between Jussier Formiga and Henry Cejudo at UFC Fight Night 78 on Saturday will determine the next challenger for UFC Flyweight Champion Demetrious Johnson. That is definitely the case for Cejudo, who comes into the fight undefeated at 9-0 and has been being groomed for a title shot. Formiga has won three straight fights, and he isn’t quite a 100% lock, but if he were to put a 1 in the loss column of Cejudo, you have to think he will be given a crack at Johnson despite having lost prior UFC bouts to Joseph Benavidez and John Dodson, who have been frequent Johnson challengers in the short history of the UFC flyweight division. It will be an interesting battle on Saturday as it will be Formiga’s grappling skills going against the Olympic wrestling game of Cejudo.

    Cejudo is the most decorated wrestler in the UFC, having won an Olympic gold medal at the 2008 Olympics. His striking has gotten better with every fight, and he hasn’t seen much of a need to rely on his wrestling skill, though he has recently, to win fights as he has won them primarily on the feet. Formiga is very experienced on his feet, but is capable of being knocked out, and aside from a submission win off a headbutt over Scott Jorgensen, he hasn’t shown the finishing capability in the Octagon. Cejudo hasn’t finished an opponent either, but he has yet to lose a round in the UFC. Cejudo is wanting that crack at Johnson and the title shot, and if he keeps his weight issues in check, which he has since dropping back down, he may give Johnson the toughest test to date. Formiga is Cejudo’s toughest foe, and while he has three straight wins, he hasn’t quite lived up to expectations. He has fallen short against the elite competition, and this fight is shaping up for that to happen again. Look for Cejudo to cement his shot at the title.

    4. Will Efrain Escudero make it three straight against Leandro Silva?

    Efrain Escudero has done something that no other fighter in the history of the UFC has been able to do. He is the only fighter to ever win a season of “The Ultimate Fighter” to be cut and then brought back to the promotion. In fact, this is Escudero’s third stint in the UFC. He won season eight of “TUF” but went just 3-2 in his first UFC stint, not a bad record by any means, but was cut after missing weight badly in his loss against Charles Oliveira. He was brought back in late 2011 as an injury replacement, but was cut again after two straight losses. He was brought back in 2014, and while he lost his return to Leonardo Santos, he has since won two straight to get himself back on track, and in his hopes, finally showing his potential in his third UFC stint.

    It was almost five years between UFC wins for Escudero, but he goes into Saturday night against Leandro Silva looking for his first three-fight win streak inside the Octagon. Escudero’s last win was a 54-second submission win over Drew Dober in June, and he went on to coach this season of “TUF: Latin America 2”, and he will be one of the more popular fighters on the card. His opponent, Silva, should be on a three-fight win streak if not for an error by a referee that made his own win over Dober into a no contest, and he will be a tough test for Escudero. Escudero has some solid wrestling, but Silva is a good grappler. They are pretty even on the feet. Silva is a larger opponent and has used his strength to maintain top position in prior fights. Neither man is creeping up on being ranked in the division, but neither want to be in a position of being cut. I like Escudero to pull off a decision win.

    5. Who is a fighter to keep an eye on during the rest of the card?

    The card will feature the finals in the welterweight and lightweight tournaments coming off of “TUF: Latin America 2” when Erick Montano faces Enrique Marin in the welterweight finals, and Horacio Gutierrez takes on Enrique Barzola in the lightweight finals. Also on the card is a former winner of “TUF: Latin America” as Alejandro Perez, who won the first season in the bantamweight division, takes on UFC and WEC veteran Scott Jorgensen, who is looking to get back on track after a disappointing 4-7 tenure during his time with the UFC. In featherweight action, Gabriel Benitez will take on Team Alpha Male member Andre Fili. In the opening bout of the night, it is two powerful Brazilian lightweights as Valmir Lazaro takes on Michel Prazeres.

    We wanna keep our eye on the featured preliminary bout as Erik Perez returns from a long layoff to take on Taylor Lapilus. Perez was thought to become the Mexican star the UFC was looking for, but he hasn’t quite lived up to recent expectations. After winning eight straight fights, including his first three UFC bouts. He has since lost two of his last three bouts, and he hasn’t fought since a June 2014 loss to Bryan Caraway. He gets a tough foe in Lapilus, who is an interesting prospect at 135 pounds. Lapilus is 10-1 in his career and has won five straight fights, including his last two in the UFC. He hasn’t fought someone at the level of Perez, who had been ranked in the top 15 before the bout of inactivity. It is a tough test for both men as Perez looks to bounce back and Laplius looks to score the biggest win of his career. We will keep an eye on that bout for sure.

    Full UFC Fight Night 78 Fight Card, Betting Odds & Predictions

    MAIN CARD (FS1- 10 PM ET/7 PM PT)

    Welterweights: (#13) Neil Magny vs. (#15) Kelvin Gastelum
    Betting Odds:     Magny (+230), Gastelum (-270)
    Prediction: Gastelum by decision

    Featherweights: (#4) Ricardo Lamas vs. Diego Sanchez
    Betting Odds:     Lamas (-590), Sanchez (+445)
    Prediction: Lamas by decision

    Flyweights: (#3) Jussier Formiga vs. (#5) Henry Cejudo
    Betting Odds:     Formiga (+400), Cejudo (-500)
    Prediction: Cejudo by decision

    TUF: Latin America 2 Welterweight Finals: Erick Montano vs. Enrique Marin
    Betting Odds:     Montano (+160), Marin (-185)
    Prediction: Montano by submission in round 1

    TUF: Latin America 2 Lightweight Finals: Horacio Gutierrez vs. Enrique Barzola
    Betting Odds:     Gutierrez (-150), Barzola (+130)
    Prediction: Gutierrez by knockout in round 2

    Lightweights: Efrain Escudero vs. Leandro Silva
    Betting Odds:     Escudero (+120), Silva (-140)
    Prediction: Escudero by decision

    PRELIMINARY CARD (FS1- 8 PM ET/5 PM PT)

    Bantamweights: Erik Perez vs. Taylor Lapilus
    Betting Odds:     Perez (-125), Lapilus (+105)
    Prediction: Perez by decision

    Welterweights: Hector Urbina vs. Bartosz Fabinski
    Betting Odds:     Urbina (+165), Fabinski (-190)
    Prediction: Urbina by submission in round 2

    Bantamweights: Scott Jorgensen vs. Alejandro Perez
    Betting Odds:     Jorgensen (-145), Perez (+125)
    Prediction: Jorgensen by decision

    Featherweights: Gabriel Benitez vs. Andre Fili
    Betting Odds:     Benitez (+165), Fili (-190)
    Prediction: Fili by submission in round 2

    PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC FIGHT PASS- 6:30 PM ET/3:30 PM PT)

    Welterweights: Vernon Ramos vs. Alvaro Herrera
    Betting Odds:     Ramos (-165), Herrera (+145)
    Prediction: Ramos by knockout in round 1

    Lightweights: Cesar Arzamendia vs. Polo Reyes
    Betting Odds:     Arzamendia (-190), Reyes (+165)
    Prediction: Arzamendia by decision

    Lightweights: Valmir Lazaro vs. Michel Prazeres
    Betting Odds:     Lazaro (+105), Prazeres (-125)
    Prediction: Lazaro by decision

  • UFC Fight Night 78- By The Numbers

    9
    Number of fights for Neil Magny since February 2014 as he fights for the fifth time in 2015, the second straight year he has fought five times in a calendar year

    5
    Number of wins for Magny in 2014, which tied the UFC record for most in a calendar year

    27
    Number of takedowns landed by Magny in his UFC career, tied for fifth-most among active UFC welterweights

    524
    Significant strikes landed by Magny in his UFC career, currently ninth-most among active UFC welterweights

    2.17
    Strike differential for Magny, which is the highest differential among active UFC welterweights

    21
    Age at which Kelvin Gastelum won “The Ultimate Fighter”, making him the youngest winner of TUF in history

    2
    Number of times Gastelum has officially missed weight for a welterweight bout out of five UFC bouts at 170 pounds

    71.6
    Significant strike defense percentage rate for Gastelum as a welterweight, which is the best among active UFC welterweights (min. 5 fights)

    9
    Inch reach disadvantage that Gastelum will have against Neil Magny

    15
    Current ranking for Gastelum in the UFC’s welterweight rankings

    4
    Current ranking for Ricardo Lamas in the UFC’s featherweight rankings

    10:04
    Average fight time for Lamas in the UFC

    7
    Submission attempts for Lamas in UFC competition, tied for seventh-most among active UFC featherweights

    282
    Number of UFC events that have occured since Diego Sanchez won the inaugural season of “The Ultimate Fighter”

    4:37:57
    Total fight time in the UFC career for Sanchez, which is fourth-most in UFC history

    3
    Times Sanchez has won “Fight Of The Year” in the Wrestling Observer Newsletter Year-End Awards

    3
    Current ranking for Jussier Formiga in the UFC’s flyweight rankings

    10:08
    Average fight time for Formiga in the UFC, which is the shortest in the short history of the UFC’s flyweight division

    14
    Guard passes for Formiga in his four UFC wins as he has zero in his two UFC losses

    9
    Straight wins for Henry Cejudo to start his MMA career

    4.09
    Significant strikes landed per minute for Cejudo, third-best among active UFC flyweights

    184
    Significant strikes landed for Cejudo in three UFC bouts

    3
    Number of UFC stints for Efrain Escudero, who is the only TUF winner to be cut and then brought back to the promotion

    5
    Knockdowns by Escudero in the UFC, which is tied for eighth-most among active UFC lightweights

    1722
    Days between UFC wins for Escudero, who won at UFC 114 in May 2010 but didn’t score another Octagon win until UFC Fight Night 60 in February

    2.63
    Average number of takedowns landed per 15 minutes for Leandro Silva in UFC competition

    55.5
    Submission finishing rate percentage for Silva, who has scored ten of his 18 wins by submission

    10
    Takedowns landed by Silva during UFC competition

    532
    Days since Erik Perez’ last fight, a loss to Bryan Caraway at UFC Fight Night 42 in June 2014

    13
    Takedowns landed by Perez, tied for sixth-most among active UFC bantamweights

    7:33
    Average fight time for Perez, shortest among active UFC bantamweights (min. 5 fights)

    6
    Inches of reach advantage Taylor Lapilus will have over his opponent, Erik Perez

    5.18
    strikes landed per minute by Lapilus

    371
    Days since Hector Urbina’s last fight, a submission win over Edgar Garcia at UFC 180 in November 2014

    67
    Win percentage rate by knockout for Bartosz Fabinski, who has scored eight of his 12 wins by KO/TKO

    1
    Number of wins by Scott Jorgensen since the start of 2013 as he enters UFC Fight Night 78 having gone 1-5 in his last six fights

    23
    Length of the last fight, in seconds, for Alejandro Perez, who is coming off a submission loss to Patrick Williams at UFC 188 in June

    7
    Number of times Gabriel Benitez has been taken down over his two UFC bouts

    3.57
    Average number of takedowns landed per 15 minutes for Andre Fili

    178
    Number of significant strikes landed in two UFC bouts for Valmir Lazaro

    13
    Number of takedowns landed in four UFC bouts by Michel Prazeres

    2
    Number of first-round wins of The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America 2 by welterweight finalist Erick Montano during the season

    6
    Straight wins by TUF: Latin America 2 welterweight finalist Enrique Marin

    80
    Finishing percentage rate for TUF: Latin America 2 lightweight finalist Enrique Barzola, who has scored eight of his ten wins by finish (4 by KO/TKO, 4 by submission)

    3
    Career fights for TUF: Latin America 2 lightweight finalist Horacio Gutierrez, making him the most inexperienced fighter on the fight card alongside Vernon Ramos

    302
    Number of days in the professional MMA career for Vernon Ramos, who made his professional debut on January 23 of this year

    1178
    Number of days since Alvaro Herrera last fought, which came on August 30, 2012