UFC: Fight Night 76 – AKA: The All Fight Pass Prelims Show
This show has zero star power, but a lot of potential for fun fights, and since the main card is virtually the same as the undercard in terms of name value, I’m going to score all the fights.
Changes to today’s event…
No longer will I be providing my Classic Ten score. I’ll only be reporting the official scores and results and my True Ten score and results. It’s too hard for me to try and score a fight in my head using two systems. It’s not that it’s physically difficult, but it can be tricky to objectively distinguish between the two. Remember, my system is simply the current system but using potential round scores of 10-10 all the way down to 10-5.
Questioning the Decision…
On our last event, we had one whacky decision. Well, more like a whacky circumstance. It occurred in the Tom Marcellino vs. Nick Newell fight. As you may remember, Newell is the one-armed fighter, and he won the fight This is how it was scored:
Official Results: Unanimous decision for Nick Newell (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Further Analysis: At the end of the second round, instead of the 10-second blocks being clacked, the timekeeper clanged the bell. This occurred just as Marcellino knocked down Newell and could have possibly finished. He didn’t because the ref stopped the round. During the confusion, the ref just decided that it was an error, and we’re moving on to round three. Upon the reading of the decision, Marcellino was pissed, and rightfully so. I think he could have a case if he protested, but he probably won’t. This was one of those fights that any score was possible as the first and the third were clear, but the second was a coin toss. Why not score it a draw?
Analysis: Easy pick here, but another example of a round that should have been a 10-8. The third round was dominated by Elkins, which included securing a rear naked choke with 5 seconds left but Whiteford just did not tap.
185: Krzysztof Jotko vs. Scott Askham
Official Result: Jotko by Split Decision
Judges: 29-28 Jotko, 29-28 Askham, 29-28 Jotko
True Ten: Rd1) 10-10 Rd2) 10-10, Rd3) 10-9 Jotko
Result: 30-29 Jotko
Analysis: Don’t be fooled by blood. Jotko maybe won the first round but barely because he was really close to being finished by that arm bar, which is why I gave it a 10-10. I don’t think Askham won a round, but I guess I’m wrong.
115: Aisling Daly vs. Ericka Almeida
Official Result: Aisling Daly by Unanimous Decision
Analysis: I loved this fight! Baby face fire by Daly was great in the third. Only one judge gave it a 10-8 third, which I thought it pretty clearly was as well. Two judges also gave Almeida the second, so Daly’s corner was right telling her she had to win the third. By the way, you should always tell your fighter that they need to win the third.
Analysis: Well, this was great a call. I figured it was going to be a unanimous decision for Till and I’d write my usual rant about not giving 10-8s, but two of these judges showed some guts because clearly the last round was a 10-8 for Dalby. It could have been stopped at least one time. Till got very lucky here.
155: Norman Parke vs. Reza Madadi
Official Result: Norman Parke by Unanimous Decision
This ended up being a good show, with a pretty dang good main event. The judging seems to be getting better with each passing show, and by better I mean judges are using more 10-8s. That’s a step in the right direction. Is it this column that is leaving an impression? My theory is yes.
Welcome to WrestlingObserver.com’s live coverage of UFC Fight Night 76: Holohan vs. Smolka from the 3Arena in Dublin, Ireland. The event has undergone some major last-minute changes, losing the original main event earlier this week when Joseph Duffy was forced out of his bout against Dustin Poirier. The card is now headlined by a three-round flyweight bout as Paddy Holohan takes on Louis Smolka in the first flyweight main event bout not featuring Demetrious Johnson. The entire event will be streamed on UFC Fight Pass. The action kicks off with preliminary card fights at 1:15 PM eastern time before the main card kicks off at 4 PM eastern time.
Real quick thank you to everyone for all their nice messages today.
PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC FIGHT PASS- 1:15 PM ET/10:15 AM ET)
MIDDLEWEIGHTS- BUBBA BUSH (8-2 1 NC, 0-0 1 NC UFC) VS. GARRETH MCLELLAN (12-3, 0-1 UFC)
First round: McLellan is the top star from South Africa. A regular Jan Wilkens. Bush looks like Matt Brown’s face on Anthony Nese’s body. Bush is trying to take him down. McLellan blocked the early takedown attempts. Bush tripped him down. McLellan back up. Another takedown by Bush. Bush in side control. Super hot crowd already. McLellan trying a Kimura from the bottom but Bush out and has his back. Bush now punching. McLellan back to his feet and went for a gullotine. Bush popped out. 10-9 Bush.
Second round: McLellan kicked to the body. Bush took him right down. Bush tried another takedown but McLellan, held onto the fence and landed on top. The ref should have reset them but didn’t. McLellan landed in the mount. He worked for an arm triangle. McLellan landing some punches from the top. McLellan landing a lot of punches now. Now he’s landing elbows and punches. More punches and elbows by McLellan. I’d go 10-8 McLelland but I think the judges will have it even 19-19 right now.
Third round: Crowd hot. McLellan with an uppercut and now McLellan going for a takedown. McLellan was able to slam him down. McLellan working for a choke. Bush got up and wants a takedown. Bush took him down. McLellan back up. Takedown by McLellan. McLellan landing punches from the top. McLellan dropping elbows. McLellan landing a ton of punches late. It was stopped with seconds left from ground and pound. If anything, should have been stopped a second or two earlier. 4:58
FEATHERWEIGHTS- (#14) DARREN ELKINS (18-5, 8-4 UFC) VS. ROB WHITEFORD (12-2, 2-1 UFC)
First round: Elkins landed some punches. Whiteford landed a left. Left by Elkins. Whiteford landing good punches. Elkins took him down. Whiteford back up. Elkins with an uppercut and takedown. Whiteford bleeding fro under the right eye. Whiteford back up. Whiteford hurt him with a right. Elkins 10-9.
Second round: Elkins took him down. Whiteford bleeding near the left eye. Elkins got his back. Elkins working for a choke but Whiteford out of trouble. Whiteford tried to get up but Elkins took him back down with a single leg. Whiteford back up with 1:33 left. Whiteford with a cool judo throw and landed elbows but Elkins took him down again. Elkins landing punches. Elkins 20-18.
Third round: Left by Whiteford. Left and right by Whiteford. Elkins took him down. Whiteford with a left. Elkins landed some punches and took him down. Whiteford bleeding bad from the left ear. Elkins has his back. Whiteford working for a choke. Elkins 30-27.
Scores: All three have it 30-27 for Elkins.
WELTERWEIGHTS- CATHAL PENDRED (17-3-1, 4-1 UFC) VS. TOM BREESE (8-0, 1-0 UFC)
First round: Breeze from England, but trains in Montreal at Tri-Star. Place going insane for Pendred. Big left by Breese and Pendred went down to a knee. Left by Breese. Pendred’s nose bleeding badly. Right and knee by Pendred. Breese wth a left to the face and another left to the body. High kick by Breese. Breese landing big punches. Body kick by Breese. Breese dropped him with a series of punches and it’s over. Three lefts put Pendred down and he threw punches on the ground when it was stopped.
Breese asked Dana White for 50Gs. Some advice for guys. Don’t do that. Instead, challenge somebody. He asked to be put on the February card in London.
MIDDLEWEIGHTS- SCOTT ASKHAM (13-1, 1-1 UFC) VS. KRZYSZTOF JOTKO (15-1, 2-1 UFC)
First round: Jotko took him down. Fans chanting for Jotko. Askham bleeding from above the left eye. Jotko took him down a second time. Ashkam with elbows from the bottom and looking for an armbar. Jotko escaped. Ashkam bleeding badly now. Jotko 10-9.
Second round: Ashkam missed a high kick. Jotko now bleeding from the nose. Jotko got poked in the eye. Ashkam landed a front kick. Ax kick by Ashkam. Ashkam’s round so 19-19 after two.
Third round: Jotko with a knee. Ashkham went for a judo throw but Jotko landed on top and landed a punch as Ashkam got up. Left and right and kick by Ashkam. Right by Jotko. Jotko bleeding from the nose and right ear. Ashkam covered in blood. Left and body kick by Jotko. Close fight I’ve got Ashkam 29-28. Could go either way.
First round: Daly out with punches early. Almeida with an elbow. Almeida with knees to the body. They are in a clinch on the fence. Daly got the takedown. Daly landing punches from the top. Daly 10-9.
Second round: Daly pushed her into the fence. Daly with a takedown. Daly landing punches. Almeida looked for a triangle. Almeida up and took Daly down. Almeida in side control. Almeida got her back. Close round, Almeida so 19-19 into the third.
Third round: Daly out throwing punches. Daly with a hip toss but on the way over Almeida blocked it with a body scissors. Daly throwing punches. Crowd going to ridiculously nuts for this fight. Daly with elbows to the thigh as she got Almeida down. Daly landing a ton of punches. Daly landing all kinds of punches. Daly clearly won the third. The place is going crazy 29-28 Daly. She climbed to the top of the cage and was crying because the crowd was cheering so loudly.
Scores: 30-27, 29-27 and 29-28 Daly. She’s crying like crazy. What a freaking great babyface promo. This was one of the best undercard crowd reactions in UFC history.
LIGHTWEIGHTS- STEVIE RAY (18-5, 2-0 UFC) VS. MICKAEL LEBOUT (14-4-1, 1-1 UFC)
First round: Big left by Ray. Left by Ray. Body kick by Ray. Left by Ray. Body kick by Ray. Hard left by Ray. Ray 10-9
Second round: Ray landing punches. Left high kick by Ray. Jumping kick by Ray. Ray 20-18.
Third round: Lebout landed a right. Body kick by Ray. High kick by Ray. Lebout landed a hard right. Body kick by Lebout. Spinning elbow by Lebout. Ray picked him up and spun him and threw him down, almost like an F-5 right as the match ended. This round was closer. 30-27 Ray.
Scores: 29-28, 30-27 and 30-27 Ray
MAIN CARD (UFC FIGHT PASS- 4 PM ET/1 PM PT)
FLYWEIGHTS- NEIL SEERY (15-11, 2-2 UFC) VS. JON DELOS REYES (8-4, 1-2 UFC)
First round: Seery landing punches. Crowd going crazy since Seery is from Dublin. Knee by Delos Reyes. Serry landed a nice right to the side of the head. Delos Reyes took him down. Knee by Delos Reyes. Both landing punches. Seery landing a lot of rights. Seery wrestled him to the round. Delos Reyes got a takedown but Serry back up. Seery landing punches and a low kick. Both trading. Seery 10-9.
Second round: Seery with punches, Delos Reyes took him down but Seery grabbed a guillotine. Delos Reyes escaped and got Seery’s back. Seery escaped and took Delos Reyes down. Dels Reye sbakc up. Both landing hard shos. Both swinging. Really good round. Delos Reyes slammed him down but Serry grabbed him in a guillotine for the submission. Easily the best fight of the show so far.
WELTERWEIGHTS- NICOLAS DALBY (14-0, 1-0 UFC) VS. DARREN TILL (13-0, 1-0 UFC)
First round: Dalby is from Denmark, Till is from the U.K. but trains in Brazil. Both tying up. Till with knees. Left by Till. Till with body kicks. Another body kick by Till. Dalby with a body kick. Till with a kick, knee and elbow. Low kick by Dalby. Left to the jaw by Till. Body kick by Till. Till landed an upppercut and had Dalby in trouble as the round ended. 10-9 Till.
Second round: Good body kick by Till. Takedown by Dalby but Till right back up. Knee to the head by Dalby. Till knocked him off balance at the end of the round. Close round, 10-9 slightly for Till so he’s up 20-18.
Third round: Dalby landed a head kick. Till went for a takedown but Dalby escaped. Dalby landed a punch to the nose. Dalby working for a takedown. Dalby got the takedown. Till got up. Till bleeding from the nose. Another head kick by Dalby and some punches. Dalby landing solid punches and a knee. Dalby with a kick to the body and punches. Dalby took him down with 2:20 left Dalby got mount and is pounding on him. Till is in a lot of trouble. Dalby landing all kinds of lefts on the ground. Till back up but he’s wobbly and worried. Dalby threw him down but Till immediately got back up. Till with a knee and a punch. Dalby with punches and he landed a head kick. Dalby with knees to the head. Dalby’s round for sure. Great fight. Really comes down to round two, I’ve got 29-28 for Till, but it could even be a 28-28 draw if you gave a 10-8 third.
Scores: 29-28 Till 28-28 28-28 draw. So they gave Dalby 10-8 third which is not bad scoring at all. Till’s shoulder went out in the second round but he came out and survived the third round. Dan Hardy was pushing the idea of a rematch.
LIGHTWEIGHTS- NORMAN PARKE (20-4-1, 4-2-1 UFC) VS. REZA MADADI (13-3, 2-1 UFC)
First round: Madadi working for a takedown. Parke defending. Madadi shot and Parke sprawled. Parke landed a few lefts. Another left landed by Parke. Crowd booed, not much happened. Parke 10-9.
Second round: Parke throwing kicks. Parke landing a few punches. Madadi got the takedown but Parke back to his feet. Head kick by Parke. They are in a clinch against the fence. Body kick by Parke. Parke landed several punches. Parke going for a takedown but didn’t get it. Parke with some uppercuts. Parke’s round, up 20-18.
Third round: Madadi going for a single leg. Madadi started to land. Madadi landing more and working for a takedown. Parke took him down. Close third round, Parke 30-27.
Scores: All three have it 30-27 for Parke.
FLYWEIGHTS- PADDY HOLOHAN (12-1-1, 3-1 UFC) VS. LOUIS SMOLKA (9-1, 3-1 UFC)
First round: Holohan took him down and moved into side control. Smolka working for a D’arce choke from the bottom. Holohan tried to get his back. Smolka up but Holohan took him down again. Smolka moved to the top. Holohan went for a heel hook. Smolka worked for an ankle lock Holohan took him down again. Smolka up and landed a kick. Holohan trying for a takedown but this one was blocked. Front kick by Smolka. Two more front kicks by Smolka. Holohan went for another takedown but doesn’t have it. Smolka landing punches and Holohan back. Great first round. Holohan 10-9.
Second round: Both trading. Smolka’s punches are crisper. Holohan landed a nice left. Holohan jumped on his back. Crowd going crazy for Holohan. Holohan has his back and working for a choke with a body triangle. Smolka trying to spin to the top but Holohan holding a body triangle. Holohan throwing punches. Smolka turned to the top with 2:45 left in the round. Smolka with elbows to the body. Smolka has a guillotine standing. Smolka used it to take him down. Smolka with elbows. Holohan tried an umpa plata but Smolka blocked and landing punches. Smoka landing a lot of punches for the top. Holohan is in a lot of trouble. Smolka pounding him from the mount. Smolka working for a choke. He’s got it. It’s over. Great fight.
The crowd loved Holohan even after losing. His left eye is swollen. Smolka said the people may not like him but this was a great crowd. Fans ended up cheering him.
UFC Fight Night 76 comes your way on Saturday afternoon here in the United States as the Octagon makes its’ third appearance in Dublin, Ireland. The event has undergone some late changes, losing the original main event and co-main event. We still have some interesting bouts and some chances to make money if you are playing daily fantasy this weekend on DraftKings. Let’s take some look at some studs, some values, and some fighters to avoid this weekend when setting your roster for UFC Fight Night 76.
STUDS
Stevie Ray ($11,000)
Stevie Ray has the highest salary of all the fighters competing on the UFC Fight Night 76 card, and for good reason. He has been impressive in his two bouts in the UFC, scoring knockout wins early in those bouts. He has averaged 101.5 DFS points in those two fights, and he is the biggest betting favorite on the card in his bout against Mickael Lebout. Ray has a lot of power in his fists, and some solid submission skills too if the fight hits the mat. Lebout has some submission skills as well, having won six fights that way, and Ray has lost four fights that way. Lebout is more of a point fighter, though, and Ray likes to get that finish. With his 14 stoppage wins and the power he displays, he is the best bet to score a big finish on this card.
Scott Askham ($9,700)
I like Scott Askham in his fight against Krzysztof Jotko. Askham scored a big finish over Antonio Carlos Junior in his last bout, and he is a tall middleweight. The best thing is he knows how to use his length to his advantage. He is a knockout artist, having won eight of his 13 fights by knockout, and finishes are where you are going to maximize your points. Askham also has underrated submission skills. Jotko has only lost once in his career, but he is not much of a finisher. His only loss also came by stoppage. Both men share the same salary, and it is a toss-up on the betting lines. However, I like Askham’s chances of scoring a win by stoppage, and I like him to win the fight in general.
VALUES
Darren Till ($9,300)
Darren Till is a young, undefeated prospect making his second appearance in the Octagon. At just 22-years-old, he is 13-0 with eleven wins by stoppage. He fights another undefeated fighter in Nicolas Dalby, who comes in with a 14-0 record. Till has a lot of knockout power and some brutal ground-and-pound, and he is still evolving. Dalby has likely peaked in his career, and he has good skills, but is not much of a finisher. Till is a solid value play because of his ability, his progression, and his power. I see him getting a stoppage win.
Robert Whiteford ($9,200)
Robert Whiteford fights the most experienced UFC veteran on the card in Darren Elkins. Whiteford has won his last two fights, showing off his solid judo skills. Elkins is a strong wrestlers so Whiteford will be needing to use those judo skills. He scored a big knockout win in his last fight, but Elkins is a tough fighter to finish. Elkins has struggled putting his wrestling and kickboxing together and that is where Whiteford is going to have to take advantage of. It could be tough for Whiteford to score points, but he has some solid value with his knockout power in his hands.
AVOID
Norman Parke ($10,800)
Norman Parke has the second-highest salary of all of the UFC Fight Night 76 participants. He has scored just one finish in his UFC career, and it was against a lesser fighter. He is fighting Reza Madadi, who despite coming off a 30-month layoff, is still a stout opponent who will be hard to finish. Parke is more of a points fighter and this fight will likely go the distance. With his high salary, I would stay away from Parke as I don’t see him getting enough points to get you high in the cash. I do expect him to win, though, so the risk is there if you choose to go that way.
Cathal Pendred ($8,800)
I can’t tell you to avoid Cathal Pendred enough. He just hasn’t shown the skills to be a finisher on a consistent basis in the UFC. He has won four of his five UFC bouts, but only one has been a finish, and the rest have been boring decisions, and some were controversial decisions. He is awkward in his strikes and he telegraphs his takedowns. He has been given a tough opponent in Tom Breese, one that could send Pendred right out of the UFC. Breese may actually finish Pendred, so his $10,600 salary could be enticing if you have room on your roster. However, stay away from Pendred at all costs.
OUR LINEUPS
RYAN FREDERICK- Stevie Ray ($11,000), Tom Breese ($10,600), Scott Askham ($9,700), Darren Till ($9,300), Robert Whiteford ($9,200)
Every one of the fighters I’m using have been listed in some form above. I like all of my roster to actually score finish wins. Ray has the knockout power and is facing a fighter he can finish quickly. Breese, I see him finishing Cathal Pendred, but that may be tough. Askham and Till have such solid power and they’re in fights that should be showcase bouts for them. Whiteford is the toughest one to predict since he has such a tough opponent in Darren Elkins. I think Elkins has almost peaked as a fighter and Whiteford is developing quite nicely.
PAUL FONTAINE- Stevie Ray ($11,000), Aisling Daly ($9,900), Paddy Holohan ($9,600), Darren Till ($9,300), Cathal Pendred ($8,800)
The crowd has been such a factor in previous shows in Dublin so I’m going with all fighters from that area. I like Aisling Daly who I believe it better than she’s shown herself to be in previous UFC fights. She has a long history of fighting the best at both 115 and 125 and she should grind out a decision win or perhaps a late submission. Paddy Holohan will be fighting the biggest fight of his life and I’m predicting his main event bout with Louis Smolka to be a potential fight of the year candidate. The crowd will will Paddy to a win. Cathal Pendred had a 4 fight win streak snapped at UFC 189 but they’ve given him a winnable fight here Pendred will do what he always does and grind out a decision win. As the lower priced fighter, he’s a must for my team. Stevie Ray is a finisher and I think the Scottish fighter is going to blitz Mickael Lebout and score a dynamic KO win. My last pick is Darren Till. Unbeaten, fighting close to home and he’s an underdog. Great value pick in my opinion. Someone’s zero has got to go and I think it will Nicolas Dalby’s.
PEACH MACHINE- Norman Parke ($10,800), Nicolas Dalby ($10,100), Scott Askham ($9,700), Paddy Holohan ($9,600), Jon Delos Reyes ($9,400)
I was taking Dustin Poirier, but switched to Paddy Holohan when Poirier’s fight was cancelled. I’m also taking Jon Delos, my Guam homie. I trained with him in Guam and was always impressed by his grit. He’s tough as hell, and had a great fight last time out in Manila. It was a blood bath. I expect him to finish. Norman Parke I believe is underrated. He’s dang good but has lost his last two by split decisions. He’s got a ton of potential and a lot to prove here in his home country. I expect a good showing with Parke scoring a lot of points off of strikes. Scott Askham I chose more as a pick against Jotko. I don’t think Jotko will last any longer and I expect him to get KO’d and then cut. Finally, I went with Nicolas Dalby because his nickname is Sharpshooter and I’m a huge fan of Bret Hart and Tyson Kidd. That’s the sort of in depth analysis you get with the PeachMachine… I’m actually pretty interested in this show but there are a lot of guys that the average fan won’t recognize. This card does have potential to be fun, and it’s airing in the middle of the afternoon, so you know what that means… Day drinking!
NOTE: Due to an error with Draft Kings, UFC 192 events did not take place, therefore we have no scores from that event to compare how we did. We hope that doesn’t happen this time.
Welcome to WrestlingObserver.com’s live coverage of the UFC Fight Night 76: Holohan vs. Smolka weigh-ins from the 3Arena in Dublin, Ireland kicking off at 11 AM eastern time. The event airs on Saturday on UFC Fight Pass at 4 PM eastern time. Preliminary card action kicks off on UFC Fight Pass at 1:15 PM eastern time. This is the UFC’s third trip to Dublin, selling out this event in just under five minutes.
This event has undergone some big changes in the weeks leading up to the event. The main event was originally scheduled to be Dustin Poirier taking on Joseph Duffy, but Duffy was not medically cleared to compete earlier this week after suffering a concussion late in his training camp. That followed the previous cancellation of the original co-main event, which was to be a heavyweight bout between Stipe Miocic and Ben Rothwell. With all of these changes, the main event is now a three-round flyweight bout as Paddy Holohan takes on Louis Smolka. It marks the first time a flyweight bout not including Demetrious Johnson has been featured in a main event.
Everyone made weight with no issues. There was a heated confrontation between Norman Parke and Reza Madadi. Parke threw a purse at Madadi and they had to be separated by Dana White and other security members. Madadi is returning from being out of action for 30 months, and spent 14 months in jail for aggravated burglary- for stealing purses.
MAIN CARD (UFC FIGHT PASS- 4 PM ET/1 PM PT):
Paddy Holohan (126) vs. Louis Smolka (125) Norman Parke (156) vs. Reza Madadi (156) Nicolas Dalby (170) vs. Darren Till (171) Neil Seery (125) vs. Jon Delos Reyes (125)
PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC FIGHT PASS- 1:15 PM ET/10:15 AM PT):
Stevie Ray (155) vs. Mickael Lebout (155) Aisling Daly (115) vs. Ericka Almeida (115) Scott Askham (184) vs. Krzysztof Jotko (185) Cathal Pendred (169) vs. Tom Breese (171) Darren Elkins (145) vs. Robert Whiteford (145) Bubba Bush (185) vs. Garreth McLellan (185)
The UFC returns to Ireland this Saturday for UFC Fight Night 76 at the 3Arena in Dublin, the third time the UFC has visited the venue. The last time the Octagon graced Dublin, it was one of the most memorable shows not just of 2014, but in company history, with a rabid crowd chanting all night long ending with Conor McGregor scoring a big win in front of his country on his way to winning the Interim UFC Featherweight Championship. UFC Fight Pass will provide exclusive coverage of the event with a main card start time of 4 PM eastern time, and preliminary card action kicking off at 1 PM eastern time on Saturday.
The event will be headlined by a five-round bout in the UFC’s lightweight division as former featherweight contender Dustin Poirier looks to continue to climb the 155-pound rankings when he takes on Irish standout Joseph Duffy, who looks to improve on his 14-1 MMA record and score his third straight UFC win. Poirier had some trouble when he last fought an Irish fighter, when he took on McGregor at UFC 178 in September 2014, and the Irish crowd certainly won’t let him forget about it. Other Irish standouts will be on the card, including Paddy Holohan, Aisling Daly and Cathal Pendred. Let’s take a deeper look into the card and find five storylines to keep an eye on when UFC Fight Night 76 takes place on Saturday.
1. Can Dustin Poirier score the win in front of the rabid Irish crowd?
There can be one thing said about the fans in Ireland- they are loud and they cheer their home country fighters with a lot of passion. Dustin Poirier is coming into hostile territory in the headline bout when he takes on Joseph Duffy in a five-round bout. Poirier has fought in front of a hostile, dominant Irish crowd before when he took on Conor McGregor at UFC 178 in Las Vegas. Duffy isn’t the type of personality that McGregor is, and doesn’t talk trash like McGregor, and isn’t going to get into the head of Poirier like McGregor did. However, the Irish fans will likely make Poirier remember the fight against McGregor, and they will look up the noise level in favor of Duffy when the two men step inside the Octagon.
Poirier is fighting for the third time since moving up to the lightweight division following his loss to McGregor. He has scored first-round knockout wins over Carlos Diego Ferreira and Yancy Medeiros since moving up, and Duffy is his biggest test since the transition. Poirier was a legitimate contender at 145 pounds, with his only losses coming to McGregor, Cub Swanson and Chan Sung Jung, fighters who have either fought for the title or been on the cusp of fighting for it. He has a chance to be a title contender at 155 pounds as he gets more adjusted, and not making the big weight cut down to 145 pounds has to make life easier. He is ranked at #13 in the lightweight rankings, but he comes in as the underdog for this fight. He has the overall skillset to score the win over Duffy, and it would be a big victory if he is able to do so.
2. Can Joseph Duffy break into the lightweight rankings with a win over Dustin Poirier?
Joseph Duffy will be stepping into the Octagon for the third time on Saturday night, and he is already in a main event spot when he takes on Dustin Poirier. Duffy is from Donegal, Ireland, and he will have the support of the crowd behind him. Duffy puts his four-fight win streak on the line, and he is 14-1 in his career. He also holds the distinction of being the last man to defeat Conor McGregor, and many think a rematch between the two could be the biggest fight they could put on in the country of Ireland. Duffy is by no means looking towards that, partly because they are fighting in different divisions (though that could change), but mostly because Duffy has higher aspirations- winning the UFC Lightweight Championship.
Duffy has scored two first-round stoppage wins in his two UFC fights, wins over Jake Lindsey and Ivan Jorge. Poirier is obviously a huge step up in competition, but Duffy is ready for it. Out of his 14 wins, 13 have come by stoppage, and he trains with one of the best camps in the sport- the Tristar camp in Montreal. Duffy is also undefeated in his professional boxing and kickboxing careers, and he has excellent ground skills as well. He has yet to go 25 minutes in a fight, and he had to weather some early trouble in his fight with Jorge. Poirier is one of the best finishers in the sport when he has his opponent in trouble, so Duffy will need to be on the offensive early. It is a big spot for Duffy to prove he is a contender, and a win would certainly send the Irish crowd home happy.
3. Who wins the co-main event between Paddy Holohan and Louis Smolka?
The night’s co-main event was originally scheduled to be a heavyweight bout between Stipe Miocic and Ben Rothwell that had big title shot implications on the line. However, Miocic was forced out of the bout due to injury, and Rothwell was pulled from the card in response, and this fight card ended up with a flyweight bout between Patrick Holohan and Louis Smolka being bumped up to the co-main event slot. It’s far from being the highest-profile co-main event fight, but it is one that has the potential to be the best fight on the card as Holohan and Smolka bring it inside the Octagon every time they step in it.
Holohan has just one loss in his professional career, and has won two straight fights. Smolka is also on a two-fight win streak and has just one loss in his professional career as well. Both men are exciting fighters who come to finish, and Holohan will have the Irish crowd solidly in his corner. Smolka will draw some vitrol from the crowd as he is coming off a win over another Irish flyweight in Neil Seery at UFC 189 in July. Smolka has excellent striking skills and some solid submission prowess. Holohan is a finisher by submission, with 67% of his wins coming by submission, but his last two wins have come by decision. Both are tall flyweights and have the same reach. They are evenly-matched, but I like Smolka to score the win in this one.
4. Will Norman Parke snap his two-fight losing skid when he takes on Reza Madadi?
Norman Parke is a former winner of The Ultimate Fighter, winning the lightweight tournament on TUF: The Smashes. He went unbeaten in his first five UFC bouts, and if it weren’t for a point deduction for grabbing the shorts of Leonardo Santos when they fought, he would’ve been five-for-five in his first five fights. However, he has seen a recent string of tough luck come his way as he enters Saturday night having lost his previous two bouts. Both were split decision losses, coming to Gleison Tibau and Francisco Trinaldo, and both were close enough fights that a few swings in the action during the bouts and Parke could still be unbeaten in the UFC. Regardless, he finds his back against the wall coming into Saturday night’s bout against a tough opponent in Reza Madadi.
Madadi is fighting for the first time since April 2013, when he scored a submission win over Michael Johnson, who is now a top-five ranked fighter at 155 pounds. Madadi has spent the past two years in lots of legal trouble, and spent 14 months in jail for aggravated burglary. He has claimed his innocence, and the UFC decided to re-sign him after he was released. With 30 months out of action, there is no question he will suffer from some cage rust. He is 8-1 in his last nine fights, but with missing that time and being 37-years-old, who knows what he brings to the table these days. It seems controversial that the UFC re-signed him after the arrest, but they must have faith that he was innocent despite the conviction. It will be a tough fight for Parke, but I see him scoring the win on Saturday.
5. What else is there to look out for on Saturday?
With this being an event airing exclusively on UFC Fight Pass and being in Ireland, it isn’t exactly loaded with star power, but there are a lot of promising fighters on the card. Nine fighters on the card have one loss or less in their careers, and some will be fighting for their spot on the UFC roster. The final main card bout is an interesting battle of unbeatens as Nicolas Dalby takes on Darren Till. Both men fight inside the Octagon for the second time, and Till is an interesting prospect at 22-years-old, and with eleven finish wins in his 13 career bouts.
On the preliminary card, Stevie Ray looks to go 3-0 inside the Octagon after two stoppage wins in his first two UFC bouts. Scott Askham and Krzysztof Jotko will each be looking to score their second straight UFC win when they square off. Cathal Pendred looks to get back into the win column after his first UFC loss when he takes on the undefeated Tom Breese. This is a big spot for Pendred as if he loses in yet another boring fight, he could be on his way out of the organization as roster cuts are being made. Also on the prelims is veteran Darren Elkins, who will be fighting in the UFC for the 13th time. He worked with the Team Alpha Male camp for this fight and he takes on Robert Whiteford, coming out of the American Top Team camp and is looking to build on his two-fight win streak.
Full UFC Fight Night 76 Fight Card, Betting Odds and Predictions
MAIN CARD (UFC FIGHT PASS- 4 PM ET/1 PM PT)
Lightweights: (#13) Dustin Poirier vs. Joseph Duffy Betting Odds: Poirier (+200), Duffy (-240) Prediction: Poirier by knockout in round 3
Flyweights: Patrick Holohan vs. Louis Smolka Betting Odds: Holohan (+100), Smolka (-120) Prediction: Smolka by decision
Lightweights: Norman Parke vs. Reza Madadi Betting Odds: Parke (-280), Madadi (+240) Prediction: Parke by decision
Welterweights: Nicolas Dalby vs. Darren Till Betting Odds: Dalby (-135), Till (+115) Prediction: Till by knockout in round 2
PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC FIGHT PASS- 1 PM ET/10 AM PT)
Lightweights: Stevie Ray vs. Mickael Lebout Betting Odds: Ray (-550), Lebout (+425) Prediction: Ray by knockout in round 2
Flyweights: Neil Seery vs. Jon Delos Reyes Betting Odds: Seery (-155), Reyes (+135) Prediction: Seery by decision
Middleweights: Scott Askham vs. Krzysztof Jotko Betting Odds: Askham (-135), Jotko (+115) Prediction: Askham by knockout in round 2
Women’s Strawweights: (#15) Aisling Daly vs. Ericka Almeida Betting Odds: Daly (-135), Almeida (+115) Prediction: Daly by decision
Welterweights: Cathal Pendred vs. Tom Breese Betting Odds: Pendred (+220), Breese (-260) Prediction: Breese by submission in round 2
Featherweights: (#14) Darren Elkins vs. Robert Whiteford Betting Odds: Elkins (-145), Whiteford (+125) Prediction: Elkins by decision
Middleweights: Bubba Bush vs. Garreth McLellan Betting Odds: Bush (-260), McLellan (+220) Prediction: Bush by submission in round 3
