With such a major weekend and major events behind us and with so many big things to look forward to, this week’s Josh Nason’s Punch-Out features someone who has both covered the sport and fought inside the Octagon to help make sense of it all: UFC welterweight and media memberMike Jackson!
***This is a free show for everyone. Please share on your social network of choice!***
Josh and Mike talked for an hour about the news of the day and his future, including:
– His thoughts on Conor McGregor vs. Nate Diaz and where McGregor went wrong
– Why he enjoyed Holly Holm vs. Miesha Tate more than most
– Who he’d like to see McGregor, Holm, Diaz, and Tate fight next
– What fight announced during the UFC Unstoppable presser he most wants to see
– What he learned and took in during his first UFC fight week
– When it first set in that he had actually competed inside the Octagon
– Why he wants to fight Artem Lobov
– Why it bothers both Josh and Mike how much grief Sage Northcutt gets…and more!
Click below to stream or right click to download. Thanks for sharing socially!
Welcome to F4WOnline.com’s live coverage of UFC 196: McGregor vs. Diaz from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. This is a much anticipated event headlined by UFC Featherweight Champion Conor McGregor taking on Nate Diaz in a welterweight bout after Diaz replaced the injured Rafael Dos Anjos, who was scheduled to defend the UFC Lightweight Championship against McGregor on this card. In the co-main event, it will be UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion Holly Holm making her first title defense since defeating Ronda Rousey as she defends against Rousey’s long-time rival, top contender Miesha Tate. Also on the card is our very own “Filthy” Tom Lawlor as he takes on Corey Anderson. Follow along with our live coverage of the event beginning at 6:30 PM eastern time with preliminary action all the way thru the main card.
We are looking for your thoughts on tonight’s event, so send a thumbs up, a thumbs down or a thumbs in a middle along with a best fight and worst fight to dave@wrestlingobserver.com?subject=UFC%20196%20Feedback”>Dave Meltzer.
First round: Trading body kicks. Erosa front kick knocked Ishihara down. Nice high kick by Ishihara. Punch and knee by Ishihara and Erosa was down but quickly up. Low kick by Ishihara. Front kick by Erosa put Ishhara down. Now they are in a clinch against the fence. They were quickly separated. Left high kick and big punches by Ishiara. Ishihara hurt him with a left. Erosa took him down. Erosa’s left leg looks horrible. Close round. 10-9 Ishihara
Second round: Ishihara knocked him down and finished him with punches from the top right away. It was a left counter behind the ear that put Erosa down and good punches on the ground that finished him.
LIGHTWEIGHTS- JASON SAGGO (10-2, 1-1 UFC) VS. JUSTIN SALAS (12-6, 3-3 UFC)
First round: Salas took him down off a kick. Saggo reversed to the top. Salas has a cheering section. Saggo working for an armbar. Now he’s got Salas’ back. Saggo is punching. Saggo continued punching him from that position until it was stopped.
LIGHTWEIGHTS- DIEGO SANCHEZ (25-8, 14-8 UFC) VS. JIM MILLER (25-7 1 NC, 14-6 1 NC UFC)
First round: Sanchez ran across the ring in and grabbed Miller’s leg and threw him down. Miller back up. Mlller started to land. Miller with counter right. He land some more. Sanchez took him down. Short slam by Sanchez while in guard. Sanchez landing some punches from the top. Sanchez landing some elbows. 10-9 Sanchez.
Second round: Miller made him stumble with a low kick. Miller continues to land low kicks. Miller with a body punch. Body kick by Miller but Sanchez took him down off it. Miller back up. Sanchez bleeding from the left ear from elbows by by Miller. Head kick by Miller. Nice left by Miller. Spin kick by Sanchez didn’t land solid. Miller went for a takedown but Sanchez sprawled. Sanches went for a takedown, Miller grabbed a guillotine and threw a knees. More knees by Miller. Sanchez popped out. Sanchez went for a takedown and Miller spun behind him. Miller’s round so 19-19.
Third round: Sanchez grabbed his leg for a takedown but Miller blocked. Miller with a right. Fans chanting for Sanchez. Sanchez is more active. Sanchez went for a takedown but it was blocked. Miller went for a takedown but didn’t get it but land a body kick. Left landed by Sanchez. Sanchez got a quick takedown but Miller up Body kick by Miller. Both swinging wildly at the end. Close fight but I’ve got Sanchez 29-28.
Scores: All three had it 29-28 Sanchez
Sanchez cut a promo putting over Miller and Fight Pass, as well as Jesus Christ and Yoga.
PRELIMINARY CARD (FOX SPORTS 1- 7 PM ET/4 PM PT)
FEATHERWEIGHTS- (#11) DARREN ELKINS (19-5, 9-4 UFC) VS. CHAS SKELLY (15-1, 4-1 UFC)
First round: Elkins on top punching and Skelly going for heel hooks. Skelly continues going for a heel hook. Elkins throwing knees. Left by Elkins. Elkins landing a lot of uppercuts. Skelly with a right. Elkins with knees. Punches and knees by Elkins. Both swinging. Elkins 10-9.
Second round: Elkins landed punches. Elkins with a right and slammed him down. Elkins with knees to the body in the clinch on the fence. Elkins tripped him down and into side control. Skelly regained guard. Elkins landing punches from the top. Elkins 20-18.
Third round: Elkins took him down and got his back. Skelly back up. Takedown by Elkins. Elkins is working for a choke. Skelly out and back up. Both landing. Takedown by elkins and more punches on the ground Elkins connected on some good shots. Elkins 30-27.
Scores: 30-27, 29-27 and 30-26 for Elkins
MIDDLEWEIGHTS- VITOR MIRANDA (11-4, 2-1 UFC) VS. MARCELO GUIMARAES (9-1-1, 2-1 UFC)
First round: Guimaraes has him against the cage. They were separated. Both landing punches. Body kicks by Miranda. Guimaraes in with punches and going for a takedown. Los of elbows by Miranda as Guimaraes went for a takedown. Guimaraes fighting hard for a takedown but not getting it. The ref separated them again. Miranda starting to land and Guimaraes is tired. Guimaraes 10-9 but he’s the one tired at the end.’’
Second round: Guimaraes going for a takedown. Miranda landing a ton of elbows from that position and then separated, landed a head kick which stunned Guimaraes. After three solid punches standing it was called off. Good stoppage.
First round: Spin kick to the body by Silva. Silva with a low kick. Spin kick to the body and low kick by Silva. Silva missed a high kick. Takedown by Taleb and few punches. Silva wanted to touch gloves and then threw a hard right. He turned himself heel with that one. Taleb landed some punches. Low kick by Silva. Tale back with a calf kick. Silva shot in but the round ended. Close round 10-9 Silva.
Second round: Body kick by Slva. Taleb countered with a right that knocked Silva silly and it was immediately waved off. The place went bananas. That one should score 50G’s.
First round: Body kick by Thatch. Body kick by Thatch. Siyar moved in and landed punches. Body kick by Siyar. Siyar landing a lot of punches. Pretty wild action. Spinning elbow by Thatch and Siyar landing more punches. Siyar wth punches. Thatch with a knee and a takedown. Thatch went for a guillotine as Siyar reversed to the top. Thatch is working for a triangle but Siyar cleared it. Siyar landing punches on the ground. Good round 10-9 Siyar.
Second round: Thatch with a front kick and head kick. Siyar then took him down. Siyar landing punches. John McCarthy ordered a standup. Thatch landed punches. Siyar with knees and a takedown. Siyar landing punches. Siyar 20-18.
Third round: Siyar with punhes and took hij down again and hurtring him with punches on the ground. Siyar with more punches. McCarthy stood them up again. Takedown by Siyar. Siyar landing good punches on the ground. Siyar moved to side position and used a head and arm choke to finish.
First round: Body kick by Nunes while Shevchenko threw a punch. Nunes with a head kick. Shevchenko with punches. Body punch by Nunes. Shevchenko with more punches. Low kick by Nunes. Body kick by Nunes. Nunes with a takedown. She’s throwing weak body punches. Nunes 10-9.
Second round: Body kick by Nunes and Shevchenko went for a takedown and kick to the body but Nunes scrambled to the top. Nunes landing punches and elbows from the top. More elbows by Nunes. Nunes moved to side control. Shevchenko is bleeding. Nunes is working for a choke but doesn’t have it. Nunes with a body triangle. Shevchenko turned and got on top. Crowd loved this. Nunes 20-18.
Third round: Shevchenko took her down into side control. Shevchenko is working for a wristlock. Nunes out and up. Nunes is tired . Chevchenko with two hard knees. Left by Shevchenko. Nunes ent for a takedown, Shevchenko blocked it and threw some punches. Reality is Nunes could get a title shot but he way she fades in the third doesn’t bode well in a five round fight. Nunes 29-28.
Scores: 29-28, 29-27 and 29-27 for Nunes
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHTS- (#12) COREY ANDERSON (7-1, 4-1 UFC) VS. TOM LAWLOR (10-5 1 NC, 6-4 UFC)
First round: Low kick by Anderson. Lawlor landed a lot of shots early. Andeson back with punches. Low kick by Anderson. Lefts by Lawlor Anderosn back with one. Low kick by Anderson. Anderson with another low kick. Action slowed midway through the round. Anderson with a right. Both landing. Right and left by Lawlow. Anderson with aleft. Both traded late. Very close round. 10-9 Lawlor.
Second round: Anderson slipped and went down but back up. Nice left by Lawlor. Both punched from close range. Right by Lawlor. Anderson back with a right. Low kick by Anderson. Anderson landing punches. Right by Anderson. Low kick by Anderson. Andeson with a low kick. Nice left by Lawlor. Front kick by Lawlor. Lawlor with a right. Lawlor with a good flurry late. Anderson tried a takedown and landed a knee late. Lawlor 20-18 but these rounds are close.
Third round: Body kick by Anderson. Right by Anderson. Anderson takedown into side control. Anderson landed a punch from the top. John McCarthy ordered a standup with 1:05 left. Right by Anderson and a low kick. Anderson’s round. Crowd lightly booed. 29-28 Lawlor but this could easily go either way.
Scores: 30-27, 30-27 29-28 Anderson. Fans booed the decision a lot and through his promo.
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHTS- (#13) GIAN VILLANTE (14-6, 4-3 UFC) VS. ILIR LATIFI (11-4 1 NC, 4-2 UFC)
First round: Villante out with good body kicks. Latifi exploded for a takedown attempt that he didn’t get. Latifi landed a big left. Latifi landing several punches. Latifi on two had Villante hurt and then went for the takedown, which allowed Villante to recover. Latifi 10-9.
Second round: Villante landing kicks. Latifi with a German suplex. Left by Latifi. Latifi trying for a takedown. Villante was holding the fence bad and Yves Lavigne didn’t see it. He actually did use his body to shield it but it was really blatant. Crowd booing because they are just standing there. Latiifi with a spin kick. Left by Latifi. Latifi again has him against the fence going for a takedown. Latifi slammed him but Villante back up. Latifi 20-18.
Third round: Latifi with a body shot. Latifi again going for the takedown. Tried a belly to belly but didn’t get it. Big left by Latifi. Another left by Latifi. Side kick by Latifi. Body kick by Villante. Another slam by Latifi with 20 seconds left. Latifi 30-27
Scores: All three judges have it 30-27 Latifi. Really he won all three rounds solidly.
They showed Jon Jones, Joanna, GSP, Diaz and Conor and GSP got by far the biggest reaction, even above Conor.
First round: Holm got a really big reaction. Tate was cheered a ton but not at the level of Holm. This has a very intense feel about it, very much like a world title fight. Crowd really psyched. Miesha chant. Left and a kick by Holm. Tate tried a takedown and didn’t get it. Holly chant. Much louder than Miesha chants. Now loud Miesha chants unti Holm shoved her backwards. Left by Holm. Very little happening and crowd is still into it. Holm forward with punches. Holm with a flurry ending with a side kick. Tate landed some punches. Head kick by Holm. Tate missed on a big kick. Side kick by Holm. Holm 10-9.
Second round: Tate took her down. She’s in side controil. Place popped huge for that. Holm got guard. Tate with a punch. Miesha chants super loud. Elbows to the body by Tate. Hard elbows by Tate. Another good elbow by Tate. Tate has her back She’s working for a choke. She gave it up. Tate working for it agan. Crowd going nuts. Holm survived the round. 10-8 round for Tate so 19-18 Tate. This crowd is going nuts like few fights I’ve seen.
Third round: Head kick by Holm. Big shots by Holm. Tate tried a takedown but didn’t get it. Side kick by Holm. Body kick by Holm. Kick and punch by Holm. Left by Holm. Right by Holm. Tate landed some punches and Holm with a body kick. Tate tried a takedown but couldn’t get it. Holm tried a head kick but it was blocked. Holm’s round so 28-28 after three.
Fourth round: Tate with a left. Holm with a combo. Tate again tried a takedown but couldn’t get it. Holm threw her off. Tate shot in but Holm blocked her. Holm with punches and threw an elbow when she let her up. A series of punches by Holm. Front kick by Holm and more punches. Holm 38-37 going into the final round.
Fifth round: Left by Holm. Holm with two side kicks. Holm with a left. Tate pushed her against the fence. Holm turned her. Holm threw an elbow to break the clinch. Holm with punches and a high kick. Tate is too slow to grab the leg when Holm is throwing her side kicks. Tate got her down and got her back again. Tate is working for a choke. Holm flipped her over but Tate held on and got the choke tighter. Holm went out without tapping. Unreal. This is one of the best finishes you’ll ever see. This match was so intense live. 3:30
WELTERWEIGHTS- (FTW C) CONOR MCGREGOR (19-2, 7-0 UFC) VS. (#5 LW) NATE DIAZ (18-10, 13-8 UFC)
First round: The place is still electric. Not nearly the Irish contingent as in the past but McGregor is still the big crowd favorite. Big left by McGregor. Diaz has him against the fence. McGregor out and landed a left and a right. McGregor landing punches. Good body punch by Diaz. Diaz starting to land. Spin kick missed by McGregor. Diaz is starting to land. Both are landing good shots. Diaz with a body kick. Diaz bleeding from the right eye. McGregor is targeting the eye. Diaz took him down but McGregor is on top. McGregor landing punches from the top. McGregor 10-9.
Second round: Spin kick by McGregor. Spin kick landed by McGregor. McGregor landing to the body. Left by McGregor. McGregor with a spin kick. Big fight by McGregor. Diaz is bleeding badly now. Big right by McGregor. Diaz tied him up against the fence. McGregor is really going to work on him now. Diaz’s face is a mess. Diaz slapped him in the face. Right by Diaz. Knee by McGregor. Uppercut by McGregor. McGregor landing a lot of shots and Diaz back with punches. Diaz actually missing most but now he’s landing. Diaz is starting to take over. Diaz has McGregor in trouble Diaz landing a ton of punches. Diaz with a ton of lefts. McGregor now coming back with punches. Diaz back with punches and has him hurt. McGregor went for a takedown and is on top. Diaz is punching the hell out of him and he’s got the choke and McGregor is not getting out of this. 4:20
The first big show of the year is upon us as Ireland has taken over Las Vegas and Stockton is there to fight. Since this fight was signed last week, Conor McGregor and Nate Diaz have managed to cram three months of trash talk into 11 days and captured the imagination of fight fans everywhere.
Lost in the shuffle is a highly anticipated title fight in the marquee division in women’s MMA. Our very own Tom Lawlor is also on the main card along with the guy he knocked out in his last fight. And in the Fight Pass main event, two battle-tested UFC veterans will throw down as Diego Sanchez moves back to 155 to take on Jim Miller.
Our panel is here to weigh in on their opinions on the top fights on the card and as you can see from the results below, our panel (for the most part) picks at a higher clip than the people who set the betting odds.
Here’s our panel with the 2016 records in parenthesis with a running tally of the records of the favorites going into the fights and the panel consensus picks
John Pollock (18-7; .720) – Fight Network analyst, Live Audio Wrestling co-host, MMA Report co-host
Mike Sawyer (17-8; .680) – Tough Talk MMA
Josh Nason (17-8; .680) – Host of Josh Nason’s Punch Out; Assistant Web Editor of WrestlingObserver.com; WON Twitter guy
Mike Sempervive (17-8; .680) – Wrestling Observer Live and Big Audio Nightmare co-host
Ryan Frederick (16-9; .640) – WrestlingObserver.com UFC reporter, WON Twitter guy
Consensus picks (14-9; .609)
Dave Meltzer (15-10; .600)– Wrestling Observer founder
Steve Juon (14-11; .560) – MMA Mania/Wrestling Observer writer. Angry Marks founder
Favorites (14-11; .560)
David Bixenspan (14-11; .560) – Figure Four Weekly writer, podcast host
Front Row Brian (13-12; .520) – MMA newsbreaker, Beloved internet personality, Podcast host
Paul Fontaine (10-15; .400) – MMADraws.com founder, WrestlingObserver.com writer
Conor McGregor (19-2) vs Nate Diaz (18-10) Welterweights
The World Featherweight Champion takes on the #5 ranked Lightweight contender in a Welterweight fight. Despite how ridiculous that sounds, this show is going to do huge business and it’s because of this fight. And it should be a great one. McGregor has outstanding power and with the extra weight could be even more powerful. If it goes to the ground, Diaz should have the huge advantage. The odds are heavily in Conor’s favor and the fight seems a lot closer than they would suggest but our panel is picking straight up and without having to think about the odds, it’s a clear consensus.
Women’s Bantamweight Champion Holly Holm (10-0) vs Miesha Tate (17-5)
Holm makes her first title defence after the biggest upset in UFC history when she knocked out Ronda Rousey. Rousey’s previous biggest rival Tate gets the title shot she’s been working toward for two years. This should be a very different fight for Holm but so far she’s passed every test in the UFC even if it was with a solid C in her first two fights. Again the panel seems pretty unified on this one and the odds, while not quite as lopsided as the main event, favor the champion. The winner will likely get the biggest money fight of her career against Ronda later on this year.
Ilir Latifi (11-4) vs Gian Villante (14-6) Light Heavyweights
Latifi has stormed the UFC with 4 first round stoppages in his first 6 fights. He has had a few stumbles with 2 losses and while one was against someone who now fights at Middlweight in Gegard Mousasi, he was knocked out in the first round by non-contender Jan Blachowicz. Villante is also susceptible to the KO but has managed to win 3 of the last 4. This and the next fight is almost a mini-tournament of sorts to get into that next level of contenders once Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier settle their differences. It would seem natural to have the winners of these two fights face off down the road.
Tom Lawlor (10-5) vs Corey Anderson (7-1) Light Heavyweights
The co-host of Filthy Four Daily on this very website steps back into the Octagon in an attempt to finally break into that elusive top 15. He really should be there already considering he’s coming off of a KO win of Villante, who already is. He’s got a tough opponent in former TUF Champion Anderson. Anderson has won 4 of 5 in the UFC with the last 3 coming by decision. The two most likely outcomes seem to be a finish for Lawlor or a grinding decision for Anderson. With the way my selections have been going so far, you can look at my pick in this fight as support for a fellow website contributor….
Diego Sanchez (25-8) vs Jim Miller (25-7) Lightweights
Another TUF winner on the card here as Diego Sanchez is back in the Octagon. If not for a gift win against Ross Pearson that only the two judges who voted for him think he won, Sanchez would be on a four fight win streak. After dropping to 145 for a fight with Ricardo Lamas, he’s back at his familiar 155 for this one. Jim Miller is a perennial contender who almost always has exciting fights and this one could steal the show. Miller has also lost 3 of his last 4 with two of those uncharacteristically coming by stoppage. It seems unlikely that either of these two would ever be cut by UFC but it’s tough to stick around in UFC with a 1-4 record in your last 5 fights so this is important for both of them.
Welcome to our live coverage of the UFC 196: McGregor vs. Diaz weigh-ins from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The fighters will hit the scale at 7 PM eastern time. The card airs Saturday night, with the main card taking place on pay-per-view at 10 PM eastern time. Preliminary card action kicks off on UFC Fight Pass at 6:30 PM eastern time before shifting over to FOX Sports 1 at 8 PM eastern time.
The biggest event thus far in the year 2016 is headlined by UFC Featherweight Champion Conor McGregor moving up two weight classes to take on Nate Diaz, who takes the fight on short notice and also moves up a weight class, when they square off in a five-round bout at welterweight. Diaz is a short-notice replacement for Rafael Dos Anjos, who was scheduled to defend the UFC Lightweight Championship against McGregor before breaking his foot two weeks ago.
In the co-main event, UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion Holly Holm defends the championship she won when she shocked the world and knocked out Ronda Rousey at UFC 193 in November as she takes on long-time top contender Miesha Tate. Also on the card is our very own “Filthy” Tom Lawlor as he takes on Corey Anderson.
MAIN CARD (PPV- 10 PM ET/7 PM PT): Conor McGregor (168) vs. Nate Diaz (169) Holly Holm (134.5) vs. Miesha Tate (135) – UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship Gian Villante (205) vs. Ilir Latifi (205) Corey Anderson (204) vs. Tom Lawlor (204.5) Amanda Nunes (136) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (134)
PRELIMINARY CARD (FOX SPORTS 1- 8 PM ET/5 PM PT): Brandon Thatch (170) vs. Siyar Bahadurzada (170) Erick Silva (170) vs. Nordine Taleb (170) Vitor Miranda (185.5) vs. Marcelo Guimaraes (185.5) Darren Elkins (145.5) vs. Chas Skelly (145.5)
PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC FIGHT PASS- 6:30 PM ET/3:30 PM PT): Diego Sanchez (156) vs. Jim Miller (155.5) Jason Saggo (155.5) vs. Justin Salas (156) Julian Erosa (144.5) vs. Teruto Ishihara (146)
With UFC 196 emanating from Las McGregor, Nevada, this weekend, Josh Nason’s Punch-Out heads back out to the desert to chat with someone who is a familiar face to UFC hardcore fans with his usual cageside seat and youthful good looks: Las Vegas Sun assistant sports editor Case Keefer!
Josh and Case talked for 45 minutes about a variety of topics including:
Even with an injury taking out a main eventer, Saturday’s UFC 196 has no shortage of buzz around it, thanks to the new main event of featherweight champion Conor McGregor vs. Nate Diaz at welterweight.
The two had a memorable kickoff press conference to announce the fight, made when lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos had to bow out due to a broken foot, in which McGregor was accused of taking steroids and Diaz was accused of making gang signs with one hand and balloon animals in the other. Yes, that happened. The UFC Embedded series has also had its share of memorable moments, notably Nick Diaz’s brother commenting on McGregor’s movment coach Ido Portal.
Today’s 4 PM EST press conference will feature McGregor, Diaz, women’s bantamweight champion Holly Holm, and Miesha Tate. Sadly, our “Filthy” Tom Lawlor will not be in attendance as he continues to hatch out a secret plan to defeat Corey Anderson on the PPV main card Saturday.
The biggest UFC show thus far in the year 2016 comes our way on Saturday night with UFC 196 taking place in Las Vegas, Nevada. Headlining the event is the biggest star in the sport, UFC Featherweight Champion Conor McGregor, as he moves up two weight classes to take on Nate Diaz in a short-notice situation. Also on the card is UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion Holly Holm defending her championship for the first time against Miesha Tate. Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when making your daily fantasy line-ups for Saturday night’s event.
STUDS
Conor McGregor ($11,000)
Conor McGregor is the biggest star in the sport of MMA right now and he is the top play this weekend in fantasy MMA. He has won 15 straight fights, and all but one of his seven wins inside the Octagon have come by finish. He won’t have the distraction of a big weight cut this week, and he is fighting a short-notice replacement. Nate Diaz is good, but he hasn’t had a camp. McGregor has shown amazing skills, and due to his mouth and how he presents himself, there are a lot of cases where fans just don’t wanna give him the credit he deserves. This fight is a style fight that is great for him as Diaz is a slow volume striker. McGregor is light on his feet, has great footwork, is an excellent counterpuncher, and is a power striker. He says he is finishing Diaz inside the first round, and it is hard to argue against him with his track record. He is the top play this week. Use him in your line-ups.
Brandon Thatch ($10,900)
Brandon Thatch has struggled recently, dropping his last two fights. However, those losses came to Benson Henderson and Gunnar Nelson, who are top fighters. Before that, Thatch had won eleven of his twelve professional fights, and was a rising prospect. Now, he fights with his potential UFC future on the line. He gets a step back in fighting Siyar Bahadurzada, who is 1-2 inside the Octagon and hasn’t fought since December 2013. Bahadurzada is a tough opponent, but he hasn’t shown much that can convince me he will be a tough challenge for Thatch, and that is without factoring in the long layoff. Thatch has scored all of his wins by stoppage, and all in the first round. He is a big favorite and has a high salary, but he is an excellent play on Saturday night.
VALUE PLAYS
Gian Villante ($9,200)
Gian Villante is looking to score his second straight win after a brutal knockout win over Anthony Perosh in November. He definitely goes all out in his fights and the knockout is always prevelant in his bouts, whether he is on the winning or losing end. Villante has struggled to get a solid run going since coming over to the UFC, but he has a favorable bout in his hands on Saturday night. He is taking on Ilir Latifi, who is a knockout artist himself. However, Latifi struggles with heavy hitters, which is what Villante is. Latifi also fought just six weeks ago, so this is a quick turnaround even though he won in just 28 seconds. Villante is worth a look at his salary and a knockout win is always in the cards when he steps inside the Octagon.
Tom Lawlor ($8,800)
Tom Lawlor fights for the second time since making the move back up to 205 pounds when he takes on Corey Anderson, and it is a real mystery why he is such a big underdog, which makes his salary an interesting one for this card. Lawlor has won three of his last four fights, with the three wins coming by stoppage, and the loss to Francis Carmont was a fight that should have gone in his favor. Anderson has scored some good wins in the UFC, but hasn’t had a finish in his last three wins, and Lawlor is the best fighter he has fought so far in the UFC. Lawlor has a strong wrestling game, good submissions and showed off his underrated knockout power in his finish of Gian Villante in his last fight. Best of all, he is cheap, and he is the best bet for an underdog win on Saturday. He has extremely solid value.
FIGHTERS TO AVOID
Valentina Shevchenko ($9,500)
Valentina Shevchenko had an impressive UFC debut, defeating Sarah Kaufman by split decision on very short notice. She is 12-1 in her MMA career and had a 56-2 record in her kickboxing career. However, she gets a huge step up in competition when she takes on Amanda Nunes on Saturday night. It may be too early in her UFC career for Shevchenko to be taking on a top-five opponent, and Nunes has shown to be a finisher. All of her wins have come by finish, but she has been finished in three of her four losses. Shevchenko is a live underdog, but it is going to be a tough match-up for her. I don’t think she wins, which makes her a fighter to avoid on Saturday night.
Darren Elkins ($9,300)
Darren Elkins has been rotating wins-and-losses in his last six UFC bouts, a far cry from when he was on the brink of title contention having a five-fight win streak. History says he is set for a loss on Saturday night when he takes on Chas Skelly. Skelly himself is a quality fighter, with a 15-1 record in his career. Elkins is also known as a grinding fighter, preferring to take opponents down and smother them. He will have trouble doing that with Skelly, who is a strong wrestler himself. Elkins has also scored just one true stoppage in the UFC, and that was three years ago. His history makes him an easy fighter to avoid and he will have all sorts of trouble getting the win on Saturday.
OUR LINE-UPS
RYAN FREDERICK- Conor McGregor ($11,000), Brandon Thatch ($10,900), Amanda Nunes ($9,900), Gian Villante ($9,200), Tom Lawlor ($8,800)
Everyone I have on my team has been mentioned in some form above. It is hard to bet against proven track records with finishers, and I feel all five of these fighters are going to score big finishes on Saturday. Conor McGregor has been nothing short of amazing in his UFC career, and the fight against Nate Diaz is favorable for him. Brandon Thatch has won all of his professional fights by finish in the first round, and his opponent hasn’t fought in over two years. Amanda Nunes has also won all of her fights by stoppage, and she is on quite a tear inside the Octagon. Gian Villante and Tom Lawlor are big punches with exciting fights, and they fight opponents who have been finished in the past. I see all of them scoring stoppage wins on Saturday night in what should be a fun event.
PAUL FONTAINE- Julian Erosa ($10,500), Erick Silva ($10,300), Ilir Latifi ($10,200), Jim Miller ($10,000), Tom Lawlor ($8,800)
Erick Silva fights are usually quick and violent so the question is whether Silva will be the one to go down or the one to put someone out. I’m betting on the latter. Ilir Latifi is one of the strongest guys in his division outside of Rumble Johnson and I like him to put away Gian Villante early. Julian Erosa looked impressive on the most recent season of the The Ultimate Fighter and even better in his official UFC debut in December. He should continue that here. My lineup wouldn’t be complete without our very own Tom Lawlor who I think is a steal at $8,800. My final pick is Jim Miller. His opponent Diego Sanchez, is tough to put away but will take a lot of shot from the tenacious Miller, earning me a lot of points.
PEACH MACHINE- Conor McGregor ($11,000), Brandon Thatch ($10,900), Gian Villante ($9,200), Tom Lawlor ($8,800), Miesha Tate ($8,600)
McGregor will murder Diaz. We will see the first Octagon death… I don’t understand why everyone is favoring Holm wildly. I expect a long match with a lot of ground work where Tate comes out on top… Villante looked great before getting unexpectedly KO’d by Filthy Tom. I don’t think ol stubby arms Latifi can snatch a win, or a purse (lol), from the hands of big Gian… I like Lawlor. I haven’t been impressed by Anderson. He wins, but Lawlor fights FILTHY!… Thatch is going to rebound from his loss to Gunnar Nelson. He’s on a two fight skid, but I’m predicting his turn around here.
Confirmed late Tuesday night, the UFC moved quickly in getting the two in front of reporters Wednesday for a 4 PM EST/1 PM PST press conference at the UFC Gym in Torranca, CA.
McGregor was hoping to fight lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos and become the first man to hold two UFC titles at the same time, but a broken foot by RDA prevented that. Diaz, Donald Cerrone, and others were considered but Diaz’s resurgence, unique charisma, and ability to sell fan interest just on being himself made him the man to go with.
Even though there’s disappointment at McGregor/RDA being put off for a while, there’s still a lot to be excited for in this one.
Due to injuries to both champion Fabricio Werdum and challenger Cain Velasquez, UFC announced today that its next scheduled PPV, on 2/6, will be changed to a live show on FS 1.
While UFC has canceled PPV events in the past, they have never kept the card on itself and moved it to free television.
The rest of the scheduled PPV lineup, with a main event of Johny Hendricks vs. Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson, will air on FS 1 along with the scheduled prelims already earmarked for the show.
The show will remain at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.
