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  • UFC Fight Night 90 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

    It is UFC International Fight Week in Las Vegas, Nevada and Thursday night brings us UFC Fight Night 90, the first of three straight nights of action inside the Octagon.

    This event will be headlined by a UFC Lightweight Championship bout as champion Rafael Dos Anjos defends against challenger Eddie Alvarez.

    Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when setting your fantasy lineups for Thursday night’s event.

    STUDS

    Joseph Duffy ($11,100)

    Joseph Duffy is coming off a loss to Dustin Poirier in which he was completely outclassed, so he takes a big step backwards in taking on Mitch Clarke on Thursday.

    Clarke will be fighting for the first time since losing to Michael Chiesa in April 2015. The 2-3 Clarke appears to be a rebound fight for Duffy, who is 14-2 in his career and was ranked in the top 15 prior losing against Poirier.

    Duffy is a finisher and 13 of his 14 wins have come by stoppage. Clarke has only been finished once in his career, but he doesn’t have the same skillset that Duffy does. Duffy is a strong striker, has excellent submissions and good grappling. Clarke is a good grappler as well, but loses this match-up on foot.

    Duffy has the highest salary of all the fighters on the card, but is still a good investment. I expect him to win big on Thursday.

    Gilbert Burns ($10,800)

    Gilbert Burns is looking to bounce back from his first career loss when he fights Lukasz Sajewski on the card’s prelims Thursday night. Burns had won the first 11 fights of his career before dropping a decision to Rashid Magomedov in November.

    That loss is nothing for Burns to hang his head about as Magomedov is 19-1 in his career, but it showed some holes that Burns needs to fill to get back on track inside the Octagon.

    At his best, Burns is arguably the lightweight division’s best submission artist and has the strongest grappling chops. He has scored 10 of his 11 wins by finish, with seven wins by submission. He also trains with a strong camp in the Blackzilians.

    He is a strong favorite over Sajewski, who also lost for the first time in his career when he made his UFC debut in his last fight. Sajewski hasn’t fought the level of competition that Burns has. And if Burns can avoid the slow start that has often plagued him, he should be able to end this quickly. I feel confident in having him as a stud play.

    VALUE PLAYS

    Eddie Alvarez ($8,600)

    Eddie Alvarez is looking to make history when he challenges Rafael Dos Anjos for the UFC Lightweight Championship in the main event of UFC Fight Night 90. And he is also looking to become the first fighter to hold championship gold in both the UFC and Bellator promotions.

    He gets his title shot against Dos Anjos on the heels of wins over former champions in Anthony Pettis and Gilbert Melendez. Alvarez has just two losses in the last eight years, coming to Michael Chandler and Donald Cerrone, so he presents a real challenge in this fight.

    Dos Anjos has looked like a killer the last several years and is the rightful champion at 155 pounds. He finished Cerrone quickly in his last fight, but is coming off an injury and no one knows what he will look like in this new era of the UFC.

    I actually like Alvarez to score an upset as this fight goes the distance and the extra time allows for more point scoring opportunities. He is a risk, but I find a lot of value in Alvarez.

    Alvaro Herrera ($8,500)

    Alvaro Herrera is another interesting fighter with a low salary who has a lot of value on Thursday night’s card. He is coming off a 30-second knockout win in his UFC debut in November, which was his first fight in over three years.

    He gets back to action against Vicente Luque in the opening bout of Thursday’s card, and Luque is looking to score his second straight win.

    Luque has been inconsistent in his career, winning just eight times in 14 career bouts. He is tough to finish, having only been finished twice in his five losses. But Luque has finished opponents in seven of his eight wins, including in his last bout against Hayder Hassan in December. Herrera has scored finishes in eight of his nine wins, but has also been finished in all three of his losses.

    This fight is primed for a finish, and I see Herrera’s punching power being the difference. His salary is worth a good amount of value.

    FIGHTERS TO AVOID

    Anthony Birchak ($10,700)

    Anthony Birchak has one of the highest salaries on the card, and I don’t think he’s worth that high price.

    Birchak is just 1-2 inside the UFC Octagon, and all three of his fights have ended in the first round. He has suffered a submission loss to Ian Entwistle and a knockout loss to Thomas Almeida, and scored a knockout win over Joe Soto in betweeen those losses. Birchak does have 10 wins by finish, but he has been finished in all three of his losses.

    I do like him to get the win over Dileno Lopes on Thursday, but I’m not all that confident in him winning by stoppage. I see him going the distance and getting a decision over Lopes. With his high salary, you have to expect a finish if you have him on your team. Birchak is an easy avoid for me.

    Russell Doane ($9,000)

    Russell Doane is another fighter that should be avoided on Thursday night’s card.

    He hasn’t fought in almost a year and is coming in riding a two-fight losing skid. His last three fights have gone the distance and he hasn’t looked overly impressive in those bouts.

    He gets a tough match-up against Pedro Munhoz, who has been one of the top prospects in the bantamweight division, but has struggled against tougher competition.

    Doane doesn’t land a lot of strikes in his fights, but he is good at takedowns. Munhoz has good takedown defense and is the more well-rounded fighter. And I see that being the difference with him taking a decision. Avoid Doane as I feel he will be fighting a losing battle on Thursday.

    OUR LINE-UPS

    RYAN FREDERICK- Joseph Duffy ($11,100), Gilbert Burns ($10,800), Derrick Lewis ($9,600), Alberto Mina ($9,500), Eddie Alvarez ($8,600)

    I like Joseph Duffy as my top play on the card and I see him having no troubles against Mitch Clarke. I’m expecting him to end it by at least the end of the second round, and probably even in the first.

    I also like Gilbert Burns to bounce back and get a stoppage win, likely by submission as his ground game is so good.

    I have Derrick Lewis on my team as well. He has the size and power edge over Roy Nelson, and I think he can knock Nelson out. Alberto Mina is undefeated with 11 stoppage wins, and is facing Mike Pyle who is nearing the end of his career. I can see Mina knocking Pyle out early in their fight.

    The last fighter on my team is Eddie Alvarez. I believe he will end Thursday night as the new UFC Lightweight Champion, and that it will go the distance, which gives him more chances to score points.

    PAUL FONTAINE- Vicente Luque ($10,900), Reginaldo Vieira ($10,200), Roy Nelson ($9,800), Alberto Mina ($9,500), Dileno Lopes ($8,700)

    All but one of Luque’s career wins have come by finish and his opponent Alvaro Herrera has been finished in all three of his losses. To me, that’s a recipe for some bonus points for Luque.

    Vieira was the TUF Brazil season 4 champion and he beat a guy I also have on my team in his official UFC debut. That win was the first time he’d gone to the judges in one of his wins. I see the fight with Marco Beltran being an all-out balls to the wall brawl with Vieira being the last one standing.

    Roy Nelson should score a late KO or submission over Derrick Lewis. Nelson is tough to finish and Lewis will probably gas out before getting caught by a shot that drops him.

    I’m surprised Alberto Mina is an underdog against the aging Mike Pyle. Mina scored a finish in his UFC debut and then beat a tough vet in Yoshihiro Akiyama in his follow-up. He’s unbeaten and an impressive finish over a another vet like Pyle should move him up the ranks.

    My last pick is more a pick against Anthony Birchak than for Dileno Lopes. Birchak has been finished in the first round of two of his last three fights. And Lopes has a KO or sub in eight of his last nine wins. 

    PEACH MACHINE- Rafael Dos Anjos ($11,000), Alan Jouban ($10,000), Derrick Lewis ($9,600), Alberto Mina ($9,500), Marco Beltran ($9,200)

    I hate this card, but I love Rafael Dos Anjos. He’s really good and will most likely be one of the most dominant champions in UFC history after it’s all said and done.

    Nelson is done and Lewis will KO him. I hate Pyle so I’m picking Mina. Jouban is handsome. I just love Carlos Beltran of the NY Yankees and I assume Marco is related. Play this lineup!

  • VIDEO: Watch today’s UFC 197 Press Conference

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3AQ7dlmZIFU

    UFC 197 is still over a month away, but with tickets going on sale this week, UFC Lightweight Champion Rafael Dos Anjos, UFC Featherweight Champion Conor McGregor, UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion Holly Holm and Miesha Tate will be involved in today’s UFC 197 Press Conference from the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, which hosts the event on March 5. Dos Anjos will defend the UFC Lightweight Championship against McGregor, who will be looking to become the first fighter to hold two titles in two different weight classes at the same time when he goes for 155-pound gold in the main event of UFC 197. In the co-main event, Holm will make her first title defense against Tate, winner of four straight fights. Hear from those four, along with UFC President Dana White, at 2 PM eastern time by watching above.

    Also announced for the UFC 197 card is Filthy Four Daily co-host and our very own Tom Lawlor taking on Corey Anderson in a light heavyweight bout, Erick Silva taking on Nordine Taleb in a welterweight bout, and a featherweight clash between Darren Elkins and Chas Skelly.

  • UFC On FOX 17 Orlando live results: Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Donald Cerrone

    Welcome to F4WOnline.com’s live coverage of UFC On FOX 17: Dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 2 from the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. The UFC’s final event of 2015 airs on FOX with UFC Lightweight Champion Rafael Dos Anjos making his first title defense against top contender Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone, winner of eight straight fights. They fought once before in 2013, a bout won by Dos Anjos. In the co-main event, it will be a long-awaited heavyweight bout as former UFC Heavyweight Champion Junior Dos Santos takes on Alistair Overeem. Follow along with our live coverage beginning at 3:30 PM eastern time with preliminary action.

    We’re looking for your thoughts on these three shows this weekend, with a thumbs up, thumbs down or thumbs in the middle along with a best and worst match to Dave Meltzer

    NXT on Wednesday

    ROH from last night

    UFC tonight 

    UFC On FOX 17 Weigh-In Results
    UFC On FOX 17 5 Storylines To Watch
    UFC On FOX 17 DFS Playbook
    UFC On FOX 17 Observer Picks & Preview

    Coverage provided by Dave Meltzer

    PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC FIGHT PASS- 3:30 PM ET/12:30 PM PT)

    HEAVYWEIGHTS- FRANCIS NGANNOU (5-1, 0-0 UFC) VS. LUIZ HENRIQUE (8-1, 0-0 UFC)

    First round: Ngannou has an 83 inch reach.  Low kick by Ngannou and Henrique, a Brazilian wrestling champion, got the takedown.  Henrique keeping busy from the top.  The ref ordered a standup even though he was busy.  Henrique going for a takedown but Ngannou defending.   Trading punches and Ngannou landing and got a nice punch.  Close round.  Henrique got the takedown and top control but Ngannou had the best punch late.  Ngannou 10-9.

    Second round:   Ngannou landing punches.  Knee by Ngannou.  Henrique moving in trying for a takedown.  Crowd booing as they are in a clinch.  The ref separated them.  Henrique moved him into the cage.  Nganou landing punches. He dropped him with a hard left uppercut in a flurry and it’s over.

    WELTERWEIGHTS- HAYDER HASSAN (6-2, 0-1 UFC) VS. VICENTE LUQUE (7-5-1, 0-1 UFC)

    First round: This a rematch of a fight Hassan won on TUF.  Both throwing and missing.  Luque landed a left.  Luque landed a big right, Hassan shot in for a takedown and Luque immediately grabbed his neck, working for an Anaconda choke and Hassan passed out.  Hassan had no idea what happened. 

    WELTERWEIGHTS- KAMARU USMAN (6-1, 1-0 UFC) VS. LEON EDWARDS (10-2, 2-1 UFC)

    First round: Usman working for a takedown but doesn’t have it Edwards landed a head kick Edwards with more punches.  Usman again working for a takedown and got it.  Edwards is working for a triangle.  Usman landing punches from the top now Edwards back up.  Close round.  Usman 10-9.

    Second round: Usman with a body kick.  Nice left by Umasman.  Usman working for a takedown and got him down.  Usman working the body from the top.  Edwards go back up.  Edwards trying for a takedown but can’t get it.  The ref separated them.  Trading punches.  Nice right by Usman.  Edwards kneed him low.   Usman with a takedown.  Usman 20-18.

    Third round: Usman with another takedown.  Edwards back up.  Edwards went for a guillotine but Usman took him down into side control Usman landing a lot of punches from back postion now.  Lots of knees to the butt by Usman.  Usman dominated the round, should win 30-27, could be 30-26 or 29-28 or 29-27.

    Scores: 29-28, 30-27 and 29-28 for Usman.  

    PRELIMINARY CARD (FOX SPORTS 1- 5 PM ET/2 PM PT)

    FEATHERWEIGHTS- COLE MILLER (21-9) VS. JIM ALERS (13-2)

    First round:  Both guys trading punches and kicks from distance early. Miller with a huge reach advantage. Alers landing slightly more through 2:00.  Miller with a nice punch combo at 2:15.  Nice punch exchange at 3:15. Miller with a nice punch combo at 4:00.  Alers answers back with a combo at 4:15.  10-9 Miller but really close.

    Second Round:  Alers staggers Miller with an early punch and also landing leg kicks.  Alers with some damage around his right eye from the first round.  Nice combo at 1:00.  Total strikes are 29-26 Alers. Miller hit with an eye poke.  The poke was really bad and Miller can’t open his eye so the fight is called off.  No Contest.

    NIK LENTZ VS. DANNY CASTILLO, LIGHTWEIGHTS

    First round:  Castillo tried for a takedown.  Nice right by Castillo and left hook by Lenz.  Lentz with an awesome looking hip toss into side control.  Lentz going for  a guillotine.  Castillo out and on top.  Lentz again going for a guillotine.  Castillo with a head and arm choke attempt.  Nice punches by Lentz and knee from a Thai plumb.  Big right by Lentz.  Knee and punches by Casillo.  Great round.  Right by Castillo.  Lentz 10-9.

    Second round:  Head kick and punch by Castillo.  Right by Lentz.  Good body kick by Lentz.  Punches moving in by Lentz.  Lentz with punches and a body kick plus a takedown.  Knee by Lentz but Castillo avoided it.  Lentz with a body kick.  Castillo looks tired.  Castillo failed on a takedown.  Lentz  landing knees.  Lentz tried for a guillotine but lost it as Castillo got on top in side control.  Lentz gained guard and Lentz got back up. Left by Lentz.  Castillo landing punches.  Lentz 20-18.

    Third round:  Lentz with a hip toss but Castilo back up.  Right by Lentz.  Lentz with punches and a knee.  Castillo took him down.  Knee by  Castillo.  Castillo poked his eye.  Castillo with a kick to the jaw.  Takedown by Castillo.  Lentz back up.  Lentz wanted a takedown but Castillo on top.  Lentz moving.in.  Body kick by Lentz.  Close round but I’ve got Lentz 30-27, could be 29-28.

    Scores:  29-28 Castillo, 29-28 Lentz 30-27 Lentz

    Lentz said he’s had a lot of medical problems stemming from  cutting to 145 in the past.  He also said he’s had trouble and even had problems making 155, said he hyperextended his knee in the fight.

    MIDDLEWEIGHTS- JOSH SAMMAN (12-2, 3-0 UFC) VS. TAMDAN MCCRORY (13-3, 3-3 UFC)

    First round:  McCrory pressing him against the fence.  Samann took him down.  McCrory working for a triangle.  NowMcCrory is working for an ambar.  Now he’s back to attempting a triangle.  McCrory scrambled to the top.  Escape and reverse by Samann.  McCrory reversed and got his back working for a choke.  McCrory working for an armbar now.   Samann out and on top. Samann landing some punches from back position.  Very close round.  McCrory 10-9.

    Second round:   Samann is working for a takedown.  He powered McCrory down.   McCrory used a headlock to reverse to the top, and got Samann’s back and is working for a choke.  McCrory keeping back control.  McCrory landing punches and elbows.  McCrory with hard elbows.  McCrory keeping hin down.   McCrory 20-18.

    Third round:   McCrory with a head kick.  Samann back with McCrory with a head kick and Samann back with a head kick.  McCroty took him down, landing punches and now working for a choke.  McCrory staying on top.    McCrory remaining on top and landing punches.  McCrory working for an uma plata.  Now McCrory is working for a triangle.  McCrory holding the triangle and throwing elbows.  Samann finally tapped.

    WOMEN’S BANTAMWEIGHTS- (#5) SARAH KAUFMAN (17-3 1 NC, 1-1 1 NC UFC) VS. VALENTINA SHEVCHENKO (9-1, 0-0 UFC)

    First round:  Shevchenko landed several shots.  Now they’re in a clinch.  Takedown by Shevchenko.  Kaufman back to her feet.  Kaufman went for a takedown and Shevchenko blocked it and ended up on top in the mount.  Kaufman regained guard.  Kaufman back up.  Kaufamn went for  a heel hook.  Shevchenko escaped and has Kaufman’s back.  Elbow from close range by Shevchenko.  10-9 Shevchenko.

    Second round:  Spin kick b Shevchenko.  Knee by Shevchenko.  Shevchenko with an elbow.  Hip toss by Shevchenko.  Kaufman throwing elbows off her back.  Kaufman back up and they’re in a clinch.  Both trying to throw the other.  Shevchenko 20-18.

    Third round:  Shevchenko with another takedown.  Kaufman back up.  Knee by Kaufman.  Another bodylock takedown by Shevchenko.  Kaufman with a takedown into side control.  Kaufman throwing elbows to the head.  Kaufman landing elbows.  Now she’s throwing elbows to the body.  Kaufman throwing elbows to the body.  Kaufman has the mount and pounding on her.  Kaufman went for an armbar in the last seconds but Shevchenko slipped out.  Kaufman’s round but Shevchenko should win 29-28.

    Scores:  29-28 Kaufman 29-28 Shevchenko 29-28 Shevchenko.  The judge scoring for Kaufman, man, I don’t know about him. 

    MIDDLEWEIGHTS- (#12) C.B. DOLLAWAY (15-7, 9-7 UFC) VS. NATE MARQUARDT (33-15-2, 11-8 UFC)

    First round:  Body kick by Dollaway and low kick by Dollaway.  Dolloway missed a punch and Marquardt with a hard body kick.  Low kick by Marquardt.   Dollaway rocked him with punches.  Low kick by Marquardt.  Knee by Marquardt.  Head kick by Dolloaway.  Dollaway 10-9.

    Second round:  Trading punches and Marquardt knocked him out on a counter right.  It was a right to the jaw.  

    FEATHERWEIGHTS- (#7) CHARLES OLIVEIRA (20-5 1 NC, 8-5 1 NC UFC) VS. (#9 LW) MYLES JURY (15-1, 6-1 UFC)

    First round:  Oliveira missed weight by 4.5 pounds.   Oliveira took him down.  Jury went for an armbar and Oliveira got his back.  Olivera now with a  guillotine and he tapped out  Great ground work by Oliveira.

    MAIN CARD (FOX- 8 PM ET/5 PM PT)

    WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHTS- (#7) RANDA MARKOS (5-2, 1-1 UFC) VS. KAROLINA KOWALKIEWICZ (7-0, 0-0 UFC)

    First round:  Both out swinging.  Karolina landed a few punches.  Markos with a  right.  Crowd going crazy all night with Whoos.  Flair is not in the building.  Karolina cracked her with a right.  Marko s with a right.  Markos pushed her into the cage.  Karolina with punches .  Markos with a right.  Right by Markos.  Markos with low kicks and punches.  She landed a lot of shots but Karolina nailed her with a right. Close round.  Karolina 10-9.

    Second round:  Karolina thowing low kicks now.  Nice right by Karolina.  Left and right by Karolina.  Low kicks  by Karolina. Markos with a takedown.  Markos in piggy back position.  Markos is also holding a body triangle.  Markos stayed behind her the entire round.  Markos so 19-19.

    Third round:  Markos landed rights.  Markos with a takedown but Karolina rolled through and on top.  She’s in full mount.  Punches and elbows by Karolina.  Knees to the body by Karolina.  Markos back up.  Time running out.  Karolina’s round so she should win 29-28.

    Scores:  29-28, 29-28 and 30-27 Karolina. 

    They just announced Sage Northcutt vs. Andrew Holbook to the main card on the 1/30 FOX card from Newark. 

    LIGHTWEIGHTS- (#6) MICHAEL JOHNSON (16-9, 8-5 UFC) VS. (#15) NATE DIAZ (17-10, 12-8 UFC)

    First round:  Johnson landing low kicks.  Johnson continues to land low kicks.  Left by Diaz.  Diaz starting to land.  Diaz starring to land and laughing at him.  Diaz chants.  Hard body  kick by Johnson.  Johnson missing punches short.  Competitive  fight.  Close round 10-9 Diaz.

    Second round:   Johnson with body kicks.  Diaz switching stance.  Diaz landing jabs.  Diaz landing more.  Diaz staring to land regularly.   Left by Diaz..    Johnson with a left.  Johnson with a right and Diaz with a left.  Body kick by Johnson.  Johnson big left.  Diaz chants.  Another left by Johnson.  Diaz with lefts.  Great round.  Johnson with a right.  Diaz landed.  Diaz landing and making fun of him and landed a left and another left.  Johnson back with a right.  Left by Diaz.  Another left by Diaz.  Johnson with a left. Another left and another by Johnson.  Body kick by Johnson.  Diaz with two lefts. Diaz continues to land.  High kick by Diaz.  Diaz continues to land now.  Diaz’s round 20-18.

    Third round:  Johnson with a body kick.  Both throwing.  Nice left by Johnson.  Diaz with a left.  Head kick by Diaz.  Diaz landing punches.  Knees by Diaz.  Diaz landing more punches.  Jabs and a left by Diaz.  Johnson back landing and Diaz back.  Johnson landing all kinds of punches.  Johnson with a right.  Johnson took him down, which made no sense.  Diaz 30-27.

    Scores:  All three had it 29-28 for Diaz.

    So Nate Diaz did an interview where it was all bleeped out but he wanted Conor McGregor saying he already punked out Cerrone and Dos Anjos at the press conference.  

    HEAVYWEIGHTS- (#2) JUNIOR DOS SANTOS (17-3, 11-2 UFC) VS. (#9) ALISTAIR OVEREEM (39-14 1 NC, 4-3 UFC)

    First round:   Brazilians chanting “You’re gonna die” at Overeem.  Nobody touched for nearly two minutes.  Body kick by Overeem.  High kick by Dos Santos blocked.  Low kick by Overem.  Overeem short on a left.  Knee to the body by Overeem.  Left by Overeem.  Left by Overeem.  Low kick by Overeem.  Crowd booing.  Dos Santos bleeding from the nose.  Overeem with a body kick.  Dos Santos missed a spin kick.  Overeem 10-9.

    Second round:   Body kick by Junior  Body kick by Overeem.   Another body kick by Overeem.  Dos Santos missed a spin kick.  This fight sucks by the way.  Knee by Dos Santos  First  thing he’s done the whole fight.  Low kick by Dos Santos.  Another low kick by Overeem.  Overeem with a kick to the body.  Low kick by Overeem.  Nice left by Overeem.  Dos Santos bleeding from the right eye.  Dos Santos finally started punching late in the round.  Overeem dropped him with a left and finished him with a punch on the ground.  The left hook knocked Dos Santos flying.  Dos Santos was really mad at the stoppage.  4:43

    UFC LIGHTWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP- (C) RAFAEL DOS ANJOS (24-7, 13-5 UFC) VS. (#2) DONALD CERRONE (28-6 1 NC, 15-3 UFC)

    First round:  Loud USA chant.  Dos Anjos landed early.  Low kick by Cerrone.  Knee by Dos Anjos and now he’s taking him apart, a kick to the body and Dos Anjos throwing a ton of punches and Cerrone is in a lot of trouble.  He’s taking a ton of punches.  Cerrone survived.  Dos Anjos had his back and kept throwing punches until Herb Dean stopped it.  1:06

    Dos Anjos said he was happy.  Dos Anjos said he’d face McGregor in Brazil or in Ireland.

  • UFC On FOX 17: Dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 2 weigh-in results and live video

    Welcome to WrestlingObserver.com’s live coverage of the UFC On FOX 17: Dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 2 weigh-ins from the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. The fighters will hit the scale at 4 PM eastern time. The card airs on Saturday with the main card on FOX at 8 PM eastern time. Preliminary card action kicks off at 3:30 PM eastern time on UFC Fight Pass before heading over to FOX Sports 1 at 5 PM eastern time with additional preliminary bouts. This is the second time the Octagon has appeared in Orlando and it marks the 41st and final UFC event of 2015.

    The event is headlined by UFC Lightweight Champion Rafael Dos Anjos making his first title defense against challenger Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone, who enters his first UFC title fight riding an eight-fight win streak. They have met once before, at UFC Fight Night 27 in August 2013, a bout won by Dos Anjos. The co-main event will be a heavyweight battle years in the making as former UFC Heavyweight Champion Junior Dos Santos takes on Alistair Overeem. The card also features the return of Nate Diaz after a year out of action as he takes on Michael Johnson.

    MAIN CARD (FOX- 8 PM ET/5 PM PT):
    Rafael Dos Anjos (154.5) vs. Donald Cerrone (154.5) – UFC Lightweight Championship
    Junior Dos Santos (239) vs. Alistair Overeem (243)
    Michael Johnson (155.5) vs. Nate Diaz (156)
    Randa Markos (116) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (114.5)

    PRELIMINARY CARD (FOX SPORTS 1- 5 PM ET/2 PM PT):
    Charles Oliveira (150.5) vs. Myles Jury (146)
    C.B. Dollaway (185.5) vs. Nate Marquardt (186)
    Sarah Kaufman (136) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (134)
    Josh Samman (186) vs. Tamdan McCrory (185)
    Nik Lentz (156) vs. Danny Castillo (156)
    Cole Miller (146) vs. Jim Alers (145)

    PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC FIGHT PASS- 3:30 PM ET/12:30 PM PT):
    Kamaru Usman (171) vs. Leon Edwards (171)
    Hayder Hassan (170) vs. Vicente Luque (171)
    Francis Ngannou (254) vs. Luiz Henrique (248)

    *Danny Castillo missed the lightweight limit by two pounds. He later came back and made weight at 156 pounds.

    *C.B. Dollaway missed on his initial attempt but made weight after the towel was brought in.

    *Charles Oliveira missed weight badly, once again. He weighed in 4.5 pounds over the featherweight limit.

    *Many fighters looked confused at the scale.

  • UFC On FOX 17 Preview: 5 storylines to watch, betting odds & predictions

    The 41st and final UFC event of 2015 comes fight fans’ way on Saturday as the Octagon returns to Orlando, Florida and the FOX network with a title fight closing out a big year of fights. UFC On FOX 17 comes from the Amway Center in Orlando and airs on FOX with a main card start time of 8 PM eastern time. Preliminary card action kicks off on UFC Fight Pass at 3:30 PM eastern time before heading over to FS1 at 5 PM eastern time.

    New UFC Lightweight Champion Rafael Dos Anjos makes his first title defense when he defends against one of the most popular fighters in the sport, Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone, in the headline bout as Cerrone looks to capture the championship gold on the heels of eight straight wins. Dos Anjos and Cerrone have fought before, in August 2013, a fight won by Dos Anjos. In the co-main event, it will be a heavyweight slugfest that has been years in the making as former UFC Heavyweight Champion Junior Dos Santos takes on former Strikeforce Heavyweight Champion Alistair Overeem. Also on the card is the return of former “TUF” winner Nathan Diaz as he takes on Michael Johnson. Let’s take a deeper look into the fight card and give you five storylines to keep an eye on at UFC On FOX 17 on Saturday.

    1. Can Donald Cerrone finally win that elusive UFC gold in his first chance?

    Donald Cerrone has been chomping at the bits for years in an attempt to get a chance to become the UFC Lightweight Champion. Every time he has come close to a title shot, a setback has come in the way. Finally, on Saturday night, he gets that elusive title fight in the main event on the heels of an eight fight win streak. He is 15-3 since moving over from the WEC to the UFC in 2011, and has made a name for himself for his fight anytime, anywhere, against anyone frame of mind. There have been times where he has only had two weeks between fights, but, uncharacteristically, it has been since May that Cerrone has fought. It’s not like he didn’t want, or tried, to fight, but he had the title shot sewn up and didn’t wanna lose it. Eight straight wins over the likes of Benson Henderson, Myles Jury, Eddie Alvarez, Jim Miller and Edson Barboza to name a few have led him to the man who last defeated him.

    That man is UFC Lightweight Champion Rafael Dos Anjos. Dos Anjos defeated Cerrone in August 2013 by unanimous decision. Even though he is now the champion, Dos Anjos actually lost his next fight, to Khabib Nurmagomedov, but three straight impressive performances following that loss, coupled with injuries to key fighters, opened the door for Dos Anjos to earn a title shot. He fought Anthony Pettis for the title at UFC 185 in March, and thoroughly dominated Pettis to post a five-round shutout and win the championship. Dos Anjos underwent a skill and physical transformation after being a gatekeeper in the division, and there have been questions about his physique. There are many who say that Dos Anjos looks completely different in the new era of drug testing, way different than the man who is 9-1 in his last ten fights, different than the man that won the championship in March, and different than the man that defeated Cerrone over two years ago. Those questions certainly open the door for Cerrone, who has even questioned Dos Anjos himself.

    Dos Anjos and Cerrone both competed on the card the last time the UFC was in Orlando. That is when Dos Anjos lost his bout with Nurmagomedov that propelled him to the championship. Cerrone submitted Edson Barboza in the third of his eight straight wins. They descend back to Orlando with both looking to leave with championship gold around their waist. Cerrone has the excellent kickboxing with good takedowns and submissions. Dos Anjos has become a more well-rounded fighter over the last few years but it still remains to be seen what has changed for him. Cerrone will need to avoid being taken down, which likely cost them their first fight. Cerrone came on strong while Dos Anjos faded late in their bout, and a five-round bout last time may have seen a different outcome. They have five rounds this time. Interestingly, Dos Anjos is more than a two-to-one favorite, and that may be too long of odds. I see Cerrone finally reaching the top of the lightweight mountain.

    2. Who wins the long-awaited heavyweight battle between Junior Dos Santos and Alistair Overeem?

    A heavyweight bout between Junior Dos Santos and Alistair Overeem has been almost four years in the making. It was nearly four years ago that Overeem made his UFC debut at UFC 141 and defeated Brock Lesnar. After that, Overeem was scheduled to next fight for the UFC Heavyweight Championship, which was held at the time by Dos Santos, who had just come off of knocking out Cain Velasquez to win the title. They were set to meet at UFC 146 in May 2012, but issues with taking a drug test forced Overeem out of the bout. Dos Santos would eventually lose the championship in December 2012 back to Velasquez. Overeem didn’t fight again until February 2013, when he lost to Antonio Silva. They were again set to meet at UFC 160 in May 2013, but Overeem pulled out due to injury. After those false starts, they weren’t booked to fight again until they were scheduled to meet on Saturday. Since their initial booking in early 2012, Dos Santos has gone 3-2 and Overeem has gone 3-3.

    They will finally step inside the Octagon on Saturday across from each other. Dos Santos hasn’t fought in over a year since earning a hard-fought decision win over Stipe Miocic. In fact, that is Dos Santos’ only fight in the last two years as injuries and beatings at the hands of both Velasquez and Miocic have taken their toll on him. Meanwhile, Overeem is riding a two-fight win streak that has him talking again of title shot aspirations. A win over a former champion in Dos Santos could put him just one fight away, but defeating Dos Santos, one of the hardest hitters in the sport, will be a tough task. Dos Santos has moved his training to American Top Team while Overeem continues to work on his skills with Greg Jackson. It will be interesting to see how each man fights the other as both have strong knockout power. Overeem showed a different approach in his last two fights, and has slimmed down a little. It is tough to say how much fight Dos Santos has left after his tough fights. It may be four years after they were first set to fight, and the championship gold may not be at stake, but it is still an interesting heavyweight bout between two big men, and it will finally go down on Saturday night.

    3. Is Nate Diaz ready to make another run at 155 pounds?

    One of the Stockton bad boys makes his long-awaited return on Saturday when Nate Diaz fights for the first time in over a year. After talk of moving, again, to 170 pounds, Diaz will come back at 155 pounds, and he looks to be in the best shape of his career. He will need to be as he takes on a tough opponent in Michael Johnson, a top-six ranked lightweight. Johnson should be on a five-fight win streak, but he lost a split decision to Beneil Dariush in August in a big controversial decision. Every media outlet scored the fight for Johnson, as did most observers, including UFC brass. They even paid Johnson his win bonus because they thought he won. Regardless of that, it still remains a loss on Johnson’s record, and he will be looking for a more impactful win when he takes on Diaz.

    Diaz is coming off a loss to Rafael Dos Anjos last December, a bout he missed weight for, blaming it on a training injury. That is the only time Diaz has fought in the last two years, but when he is at his best, he remains one of the most complete boxers in the division, and a dangerous submission artist. Johnson is a solid striker who mixes everything well, uses a lot of volume, and has good takedowns. Diaz could suck Johnson into a striking battle, and if Diaz starts landing the punches, they may not do a ton of damage, but they will be very effective. The biggest question is whether the time away benefits Diaz, and if the last we saw of him is a true representation of where he is today, or if he is still the guy who blasted Gray Maynard in his bout prior to Dos Anjos. If Johnson lets Diaz hit him, it could be a field day for Diaz. Johnson is ever improving, but it is still hard to count out a Diaz brother. If he wants to make another run at a title shot, he has to get by a very tough Johnson.

    4. Will Randa Markos keep making her climb up the 115-pound division ladder?

    Randa Markos ended up being one of the big surprises during the strawweight season of “The Ultimate Fighter”. She came into the show with a 4-1 record, a solid record, but unlike the rest of the competitors, hadn’t had the exposure from fighting for Invicta, and she was one of the unknowns. She showed strong skills in making it all the way to the semifinals after defeating Tecia Torres and Felice Herrig as the 14-seed before losing to Rose Namajunas. Markos hasn’t had an easy road post-TUF as she has gotten tough opponents in Jessica Penne and Aisling Daly. She lost a close split decision to Penne before scoring a unanimous decision over Daly in convincing fashion at UFC 186 in April. Since then, she has quit working her full-time job and moved to Montreal to train at the Tristar camp, and Saturday represents her first time fighting since the move.

    She gets the main card treatment as she takes on Karolina Kowalkiewicz, who makes her UFC debut sporting a solid, and perfect, 7-0 record. Both women are skilled and will get attention due to looks, but they can fight. They are very similar, with good skills on their feet, but neither are overwhelming with power, and both are patient fighters. Both tend to have close fights when they go to the judges, but Markos has the better finishing ability. She is also a better wrestler, and that was before going to Tristar, one of the best camps in the world. That is going to be a key factor, and also having one of the best coaches in the sport in Firas Zahabi in her corner will as well. Markos has a very solid shot at becoming a real title challenger as her skills evolve, and much like her nickname, she is looking at making a quiet storm brew in the strawweight division.

    5. What is there to watch for on a solid preliminary card?

    The preliminary card on Saturday features a lot of solid fights that could easily be main card bouts on a lot of fight cards. In the featured prelim bout, Myles Jury makes the move down to featherweight to take on Charles Oliveira. Jury started his career a perfect 15-0 before losing his last fight to Donald Cerrone. He made the switch to the Power MMA team in Arizona and decided to try his hand at 145 pounds. He gets a tough first test in Oliveira, a very skilled submission specialist looking to bounce back from a disappointing loss in August. Another Power MMA fighter, C.B. Dollaway, will be taking on Nate Marquardt in a pivotal bout that could determine the UFC future for both. Dollaway is looking to rebound from two straight losses while Marquardt has also lost two straight, but, more importantly, has lost five of his last six fights.

    Also on the prelims, Sarah Kaufman welcomes Valentina Shevchenko to the UFC. Shevchenko makes her debut on short notice, but she is a seriously skilled kickboxer with a 9-1 MMA record to go along with her 60-2 kickboxing record. Middleweight Josh Samman looks to remain perfect in the UFC as he welcomes Tamdan McCrory back to the UFC. Samman has four straight wins and has won all three of his UFC fights by stoppage. McCrory went 3-3 during a UFC stint from 2007 to 2009, but after being cut after a boring decision loss, he retired from the sport for four years. He made his comeback in Bellator in 2014, scoring two wins in a combined 1:27, and was then re-signed by the UFC. Another bout is a lightweight contest between Nik Lentz and Danny Castillo. Lentz is moving back up to 155 pounds following a loss to Charles Oliveira while Castillo is looking to avoid the chopping block as he has lost three straight and four of his last five.

    Full UFC On FOX 17 Fight Card, Betting Odds and Predictions

    MAIN CARD (FOX- 8 PM ET/5 PM PT)

    UFC Lightweight Championship: (C) Rafael Dos Anjos vs. (#2) Donald Cerrone
    Betting Odds:     Dos Anjos (-200), Cerrone (+170)
    Prediction: Cerrone by decision

    Heavyweights: (#2) Junior Dos Santos vs. (#9) Alistair Overeem
    Betting Odds:     Dos Santos (-350), Overeem (+290)
    Prediction: Dos Santos by knockout in round 2

    Lightweights: (#6) Michael Johnson vs. (#15) Nate Diaz
    Betting Odds:     Johnson (-500), Diaz (+400)
    Prediction: Diaz by submission in round 2

    Women’s Strawweights: (#7) Randa Markos vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz
    Betting Odds:     Markos (-185), Kowalkiewicz (+160)
    Prediction: Markos by decision

    PRELIMINARY CARD (FS1- 5 PM ET/2 PM PT)

    Featherweights: (#7) Charles Oliveira vs. (#9 LW) Myles Jury
    Betting Odds:     Oliveira (+130), Jury (-150)
    Prediction: Jury by decision

    Middleweights: (#12) C.B. Dollaway vs. Nate Marquardt
    Betting Odds:     Dollaway (-400), Marquardt (+325)
    Prediction: Dollaway by knockout in round 2

    Women’s Bantamweights: (#5) Sarah Kaufman vs. Valentina Shevchenko
    Betting Odds:     Kaufman (-225), Shevchenko (+185)
    Prediction: Shevchenko by decision

    Middleweights: Josh Samman vs. Tamdan McCrory
    Betting Odds:     Samman (-175), McCrory (+155)
    Prediction: Samman by knockout in round 2

    Lightweights: (#10 FW) Nik Lentz vs. Danny Castillo
    Betting Odds:     Lentz (-105), Castillo (-115)
    Prediction: Castillo by decision

    Featherweights: Cole Miller vs. Jim Alers
    Betting Odds:     Miller (+105), Alers (-125)
    Prediction: Miller by submission in round 3

    PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC FIGHT PASS- 3:30 PM ET/12:30 PM PT)

    Welterweights: Kamaru Usman vs. Leon Edwards
    Betting Odds:     Usman (-250), Edwards (+210)
    Prediction: Usman by submission in round 1

    Welterweights: Hayder Hassan vs. Vicente Luque
    Betting Odds:     Hassan (-120), Luque (+100)
    Prediction: Luque by decision

    Heavyweights: Francis Ngannou vs. Luiz Henrique
    Betting Odds:     Ngannou (-110), Henrique (-110)
    Prediction: Ngannou by knockout in round 1