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  • UFC Fight Night 90 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

    It is UFC International Fight Week in Las Vegas, Nevada and Thursday night brings us UFC Fight Night 90, the first of three straight nights of action inside the Octagon.

    This event will be headlined by a UFC Lightweight Championship bout as champion Rafael Dos Anjos defends against challenger Eddie Alvarez.

    Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when setting your fantasy lineups for Thursday night’s event.

    STUDS

    Joseph Duffy ($11,100)

    Joseph Duffy is coming off a loss to Dustin Poirier in which he was completely outclassed, so he takes a big step backwards in taking on Mitch Clarke on Thursday.

    Clarke will be fighting for the first time since losing to Michael Chiesa in April 2015. The 2-3 Clarke appears to be a rebound fight for Duffy, who is 14-2 in his career and was ranked in the top 15 prior losing against Poirier.

    Duffy is a finisher and 13 of his 14 wins have come by stoppage. Clarke has only been finished once in his career, but he doesn’t have the same skillset that Duffy does. Duffy is a strong striker, has excellent submissions and good grappling. Clarke is a good grappler as well, but loses this match-up on foot.

    Duffy has the highest salary of all the fighters on the card, but is still a good investment. I expect him to win big on Thursday.

    Gilbert Burns ($10,800)

    Gilbert Burns is looking to bounce back from his first career loss when he fights Lukasz Sajewski on the card’s prelims Thursday night. Burns had won the first 11 fights of his career before dropping a decision to Rashid Magomedov in November.

    That loss is nothing for Burns to hang his head about as Magomedov is 19-1 in his career, but it showed some holes that Burns needs to fill to get back on track inside the Octagon.

    At his best, Burns is arguably the lightweight division’s best submission artist and has the strongest grappling chops. He has scored 10 of his 11 wins by finish, with seven wins by submission. He also trains with a strong camp in the Blackzilians.

    He is a strong favorite over Sajewski, who also lost for the first time in his career when he made his UFC debut in his last fight. Sajewski hasn’t fought the level of competition that Burns has. And if Burns can avoid the slow start that has often plagued him, he should be able to end this quickly. I feel confident in having him as a stud play.

    VALUE PLAYS

    Eddie Alvarez ($8,600)

    Eddie Alvarez is looking to make history when he challenges Rafael Dos Anjos for the UFC Lightweight Championship in the main event of UFC Fight Night 90. And he is also looking to become the first fighter to hold championship gold in both the UFC and Bellator promotions.

    He gets his title shot against Dos Anjos on the heels of wins over former champions in Anthony Pettis and Gilbert Melendez. Alvarez has just two losses in the last eight years, coming to Michael Chandler and Donald Cerrone, so he presents a real challenge in this fight.

    Dos Anjos has looked like a killer the last several years and is the rightful champion at 155 pounds. He finished Cerrone quickly in his last fight, but is coming off an injury and no one knows what he will look like in this new era of the UFC.

    I actually like Alvarez to score an upset as this fight goes the distance and the extra time allows for more point scoring opportunities. He is a risk, but I find a lot of value in Alvarez.

    Alvaro Herrera ($8,500)

    Alvaro Herrera is another interesting fighter with a low salary who has a lot of value on Thursday night’s card. He is coming off a 30-second knockout win in his UFC debut in November, which was his first fight in over three years.

    He gets back to action against Vicente Luque in the opening bout of Thursday’s card, and Luque is looking to score his second straight win.

    Luque has been inconsistent in his career, winning just eight times in 14 career bouts. He is tough to finish, having only been finished twice in his five losses. But Luque has finished opponents in seven of his eight wins, including in his last bout against Hayder Hassan in December. Herrera has scored finishes in eight of his nine wins, but has also been finished in all three of his losses.

    This fight is primed for a finish, and I see Herrera’s punching power being the difference. His salary is worth a good amount of value.

    FIGHTERS TO AVOID

    Anthony Birchak ($10,700)

    Anthony Birchak has one of the highest salaries on the card, and I don’t think he’s worth that high price.

    Birchak is just 1-2 inside the UFC Octagon, and all three of his fights have ended in the first round. He has suffered a submission loss to Ian Entwistle and a knockout loss to Thomas Almeida, and scored a knockout win over Joe Soto in betweeen those losses. Birchak does have 10 wins by finish, but he has been finished in all three of his losses.

    I do like him to get the win over Dileno Lopes on Thursday, but I’m not all that confident in him winning by stoppage. I see him going the distance and getting a decision over Lopes. With his high salary, you have to expect a finish if you have him on your team. Birchak is an easy avoid for me.

    Russell Doane ($9,000)

    Russell Doane is another fighter that should be avoided on Thursday night’s card.

    He hasn’t fought in almost a year and is coming in riding a two-fight losing skid. His last three fights have gone the distance and he hasn’t looked overly impressive in those bouts.

    He gets a tough match-up against Pedro Munhoz, who has been one of the top prospects in the bantamweight division, but has struggled against tougher competition.

    Doane doesn’t land a lot of strikes in his fights, but he is good at takedowns. Munhoz has good takedown defense and is the more well-rounded fighter. And I see that being the difference with him taking a decision. Avoid Doane as I feel he will be fighting a losing battle on Thursday.

    OUR LINE-UPS

    RYAN FREDERICK- Joseph Duffy ($11,100), Gilbert Burns ($10,800), Derrick Lewis ($9,600), Alberto Mina ($9,500), Eddie Alvarez ($8,600)

    I like Joseph Duffy as my top play on the card and I see him having no troubles against Mitch Clarke. I’m expecting him to end it by at least the end of the second round, and probably even in the first.

    I also like Gilbert Burns to bounce back and get a stoppage win, likely by submission as his ground game is so good.

    I have Derrick Lewis on my team as well. He has the size and power edge over Roy Nelson, and I think he can knock Nelson out. Alberto Mina is undefeated with 11 stoppage wins, and is facing Mike Pyle who is nearing the end of his career. I can see Mina knocking Pyle out early in their fight.

    The last fighter on my team is Eddie Alvarez. I believe he will end Thursday night as the new UFC Lightweight Champion, and that it will go the distance, which gives him more chances to score points.

    PAUL FONTAINE- Vicente Luque ($10,900), Reginaldo Vieira ($10,200), Roy Nelson ($9,800), Alberto Mina ($9,500), Dileno Lopes ($8,700)

    All but one of Luque’s career wins have come by finish and his opponent Alvaro Herrera has been finished in all three of his losses. To me, that’s a recipe for some bonus points for Luque.

    Vieira was the TUF Brazil season 4 champion and he beat a guy I also have on my team in his official UFC debut. That win was the first time he’d gone to the judges in one of his wins. I see the fight with Marco Beltran being an all-out balls to the wall brawl with Vieira being the last one standing.

    Roy Nelson should score a late KO or submission over Derrick Lewis. Nelson is tough to finish and Lewis will probably gas out before getting caught by a shot that drops him.

    I’m surprised Alberto Mina is an underdog against the aging Mike Pyle. Mina scored a finish in his UFC debut and then beat a tough vet in Yoshihiro Akiyama in his follow-up. He’s unbeaten and an impressive finish over a another vet like Pyle should move him up the ranks.

    My last pick is more a pick against Anthony Birchak than for Dileno Lopes. Birchak has been finished in the first round of two of his last three fights. And Lopes has a KO or sub in eight of his last nine wins. 

    PEACH MACHINE- Rafael Dos Anjos ($11,000), Alan Jouban ($10,000), Derrick Lewis ($9,600), Alberto Mina ($9,500), Marco Beltran ($9,200)

    I hate this card, but I love Rafael Dos Anjos. He’s really good and will most likely be one of the most dominant champions in UFC history after it’s all said and done.

    Nelson is done and Lewis will KO him. I hate Pyle so I’m picking Mina. Jouban is handsome. I just love Carlos Beltran of the NY Yankees and I assume Marco is related. Play this lineup!

  • UFC Fight Night 89 DFS Playbook: Value picks & who to avoid

    The Octagon heads back to Canada this weekend, visiting the capital city of Canada for the first time for UFC Fight Night 89 in Ottawa, Ontario. The event is headlined by a pivotal bout in the welterweight division as Rory MacDonald and Stephen Thompson will do battle for five rounds. Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when setting your fantasy line-ups for Saturday’s event.

    STUDS —

    Steve Bosse ($10,700)

    Steve Bosse is going to be one of our top plays for this Saturday’s card. He is a knockout artist, and his opponent, Sean O’Connell, has lost three of his five fights inside the Octagon, with two of those losses coming by knockout. O’Connell himself is a finisher, with nine knockout wins in his career, so this will likely be a battle of big swingers. I don’t expect it to go the distance as Bosse has only been out of the first round just three times in his professional career. Both of his losses have come by knockout, though, and it may make him a little bit of a risk.

    With that said, some may look to avoid him just due to his large salary, but I don’t expect him to have much trouble with O’Connell. I’m confident in making Bosse our top play for this weekend, and a knockout win is what I expect to see on Saturday night.

    Colby Covington ($10,400)

    Colby Covington is coming off of his first career loss in his last fight when he was submitted quickly by Warlley Alves. Alves, despite losing his last fight himself, has shown to be a high-level fighter, and Covington isn’t quite ready for that level. He goes back down a notch on Saturday, fighting Jonathan Meunier, who is a late injury replacement for Alex Garcia. That should give Covington an edge as Meunier didn’t come onto the card until June 9, and he fought just a few weeks ago.

    Covington is a good wrestler and very powerful at 170 pounds, and he has five submission wins in his career. I’m actually surprised his salary isn’t higher given the circumstances of this fight coming together, but that likely has to do with Meunier being 7-0 with seven finishes, including six in the first round. That may lead people to think Meunier is a good value pick, but I still like Covington to score a finish.

    VALUE PLAYS —

    Leandro Silva ($9,500)

    In searching this card for some value, I’m finding it hard to find a lot of underdogs that are primed for upset victories as I expect a lot of the favorites, and higher-salaried fighters, to score the wins. I’m going with Leandro Silva as an underdog to score a win, but his salary is a little higher than most of our value plays. Silva is unbeaten in his last four fights and he is showing more confidence each time he steps inside the Octagon.

    He is a quality lower-level lightweight in the UFC, and that is a good position to be in to build up yourself as a fighter. He is taking on Jason Saggo, who is 2-1 in the UFC, but is coming off an impressive win in March. Silva has fought tougher competition in the UFC, and he is a good submission artist, with ten of his 19 career wins coming by submission. I like Silva to score the win, whether by submission or decision, making him a good value pick.

    Ion Cutelaba ($8,500)

    This is a tough one as Ion Cutelaba is making his UFC debut against a very tough light heavyweight in Misha Cirkunov. Cirkunov is 2-0 with the UFC with both wins by finish, and it is a little surprising that he is getting another fighter making his UFC debut in Cutelaba. Cutelaba is coming into the UFC with an 11-1 career record, with all eleven wins coming by stoppage- nine knockouts and two submissions. Even more impressive is the fact that ten of those eleven wins have come in the first round.

    His one loss was controversial as he was disqualified for punches to the back of the head in a fight he was dominating likely heading to finish. He is a tough opponent, and Cirkunov may be in a lot of trouble. Cutelaba has a very low salary, and Cirkunov has the second-highest salary on the card, so there is a lot of value in Cutelaba, and I think he is worth the risk.

    FIGHTERS TO AVOID —

    Ali Bagautinov ($10,800)

    Ali Bagautinov’s salary is just too high for me to recommend having him on your roster for this card as there are several better options with lower salaries. I’m actually surprised that his salary is so high as he has lost two straight fights and didn’t look the same in his last bout after being out of action for over a year due to a drug suspension. His opponent, Geane Herrera, is making his third appearance inside the Octagon, with a 1-1 record so far.

    He is coming off an impressive knockout win over Joby Sanchez in his last fight, and his debut fight was a decision loss to Ray Borg in a fight he had a lot of chances in. Herrera is a very good opponent for Bagautinov, and has the chance for an upset, which makes Bagautinov’s high salary even more puzzling. Avoid Bagautinov in this fight.

    Joe Soto ($9,400)

    Joe Soto is 0-3 in the UFC, so he finds himself in a must-win situation when he steps inside the Octagon on Saturday. Most fighters would be cut with that UFC record, but he gets more chances due to saving an event by stepping up at the last minute to fight T.J. Dillashaw for a championship in his UFC debut, but he still needs a win. Soto had a close loss in his last fight, and many thought he won that fight. He will be taking on Chris Beal on Saturday, another fighter in a must-win situation as Beal has lost his last two fights.

    I expect both men to play it safe and not fight with a lot of reckless action, and it could make for a boring fight. I do think Soto is going to score the win, but not rack up a lot of points in the process. I would recommend avoiding Soto on Saturday.

    OUR LINEUPS

    RYAN FREDERICK- Steve Bosse ($10,700), Tamdan McCrory ($10,600), Colby Covington ($10,400), Stephen Thompson ($9,800), Ion Cutelaba ($8,500)

    I feel pretty good about this line-up, though I think the same thing for every event and it doesn’t always work out. I like Steve Bosse to get a quick knockout win and score maximum points. Colby Covington is another I like to get a quick finish as he has a short-notice replacement opponent. I like Tamdan McCrory as he has looked impressive since returning to action and is coming off a very good submission win over Josh Samman, though he has a tough foe in Krzysztof Jotko on Saturday.

    Ion Cutelaba is my hail mary play as he has a very low salary and has a very good chance at getting an upset win in his UFC debut. And I will be taking Stephen Thompson. I do think he will beat Rory MacDonald, but I also think it will be by decision. Going that extra two rounds opens up for more points scoring opportunites. I also think he may be a sneaky shot at getting a finish.

    PAUL FONTAINE- Olivier Aubin-Mercier ($11,000), Steve Bosse ($10,700), Valerie Letourneau ($10,100), Patrick Cote ($9,200), Ion Cutelaba ($8,500)

    Aubin-Mercier is a stud and a finisher. Fighting in his home country and close to his home town, I’m really liking him to have a star-making performance here. Bosse’s fight should be fun and he’s got the power to finish anyone in the division and his opponent O’Connell has been stopped in 2 of his 3 most recent losses. Letourneau is coming off a strong performance against Joanna Champion, lasting 5 rounds with the strawweight queen. She should have more power at flyweight and her opponent Calderwood has proven to be vulnerable to submissions as well.

    Cote has been on the best run of his career and I think he’s got a huge size advantage over Cerrone, who usually competes at lightweight. Cote was not small at middleweight and he should have the power to stop Cerrone. My last pick is a bit of a gamble but Ion Cutelaba has scored stoppages in each of his 9 pro wins so I’m hoping for the same in his UFC debut. 

    PEACH MACHINE- Randa Markos ($10,500), Donald Cerrone ($10,200), Valerie Letourneau ($10,100), Stephen Thompson ($9,800), Sam Alvey ($9,100)

    Another stellar lineup if I may say so my self, and I may… I like Thompson a lot here. McDonald in his first fight back after that terrible nose break may be a little gun shy. I’m betting Thompson capitalizes. Cerrone, in my book, way outclasses Cote. This is another easy pick. I like Randa Markos and Lybarger didn’t look good her last time out. Smilin Sam is my under dog pick. He’s always in it and has KO pop. Finally, I think Letourneau easily wins here. And her names is the same as that teacher in Florida who married her student… first. 

  • UFC On FOX 18 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

    The Octagon returns to Newark, New Jersey on Saturday night for UFC On FOX 18. The event is headlined by a five-round light heavyweight bout between Anthony Johnson and Ryan Bader. Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid for UFC On FOX 18 to help you fill out your line-ups for your daily fantasy games.

    STUDS

    Sage Northcutt ($11,000)

    Sage Northcutt has the highest salary of all 26 fighters on the card, and for good reason. He enters Saturday night with a perfect 7-0 record, with all wins by finish, and five in the first round. He fights a short-notice replacement, and is up a weight class due to the late switch, meaning no need to cut as much weight. He should be plenty fresh, which is good coming six weeks after his most recent fight. He has a real opponent in this bout in Bryan Barberena, who is 10-3 and has won seven of his last eight fights. This is Northcutt’s biggest test, but he has passed them all so far, and Barberena is taking the fight on short notice after starting preparations to fight in a month. If Northcutt is as good as he has been, he should get a finish here.

    Randy Brown ($10,500)

    Randy Brown is coming into his UFC debut with a little bit of fame after being featured on the first episode of Dana White’s “Looking For A Fight” television show. He has a perfect 6-0 record in less than two years as a professional fighter, and all six wins have come by stoppage. He is a very solid prospect, but he may be in the UFC just a little quick, but that is to be expected within the next several months. He gets a lower-level opponent in Matt Dwyer, who is tough but is just 1-2 inside the Octagon. Brown is a good bet to score some solid points and get a finish, and he is one of our top plays on an action-packed card.

    VALUE PLAYS

    Jake Ellenberger ($8,800)

    There is zero question that Jake Ellenberger is struggling in the Octagon. He has just one win in his last five fights, and that was over a past his prime Josh Koscheck. Worst of all, Ellenberger has been finished in his last three losses. It’s a skid like that which makes Ellenberger an underdog on Saturday against Tarec Saffiedine. Saffiedine hasn’t fought since October 2014, and big injury issues have limited him to just two fights in the last three years. Ring rust could be a pivotal factor for Saffiedine, but Ellenberger’s chin, or perhaps lack of, could be a major factor as well. If you’re looking to spend up and need a cheap option, Ellenberger has good value at his salary.

    Ryan Bader ($8,500)

    It is crazy to think that Ryan Bader has the second lowest salary of the fighters on the card even though he has a five-fight win streak. He is getting greatly undervalued, especially considering he is in a five-round bout, which gives him more of an edge when it comes to scoring points with the extra ten minutes. He has a tough opponent in Anthony Johnson, who has knockout power. Johnson also tends to crumble when he is pressured by a wrestler, and Bader has a style to grind the fight out. Bader can also find submissions if there are openings, and Johnson leaves himself open a lot if he is being dominated on the mat. Bader is definitely worth looking at with his salary, and he has a good chance at scoring the upset.

    FIGHTERS TO AVOID

    Olivier Aubin-Mercier ($10,400)

    Let’s start this off by saying that odds are pretty good that Olivier Aubin-Mercier walks away with a win. He is fighting a short notice opponent, has looked good in winning three straight, and is a solid prospect. Here is why I would avoid him. I see the fight going like his last bout, a win over Tony Sims. He won by a decision and scored six takedowns, all getting solid points. However, he landed just three significant strikes in that fight, good for 1.5 points. There are a lot better options with a similar salary. I don’t see him finishing Ferreira, but a grinding win is likely here. Being the case, I’m avoiding him on my rosters.

    Kevin Casey ($9,500)

    Kevin Casey has a middle of the road salary for Saturday night, and he is unbeaten since returning to the UFC. Granted, two of his three fights have been no contests- one, which was a win that was overturned after a failed drug test, and his most recent fight ended in a no contest after just 11 seconds after he was poked in the eyes. That happened just six weeks ago, and it remains to be seen if there will be any lingering damage. He has a tough opponent in Rafael Natal who is climbing up the middleweight rankings. Casey has a tough matchup, is coming back from tough circumstances, and is unlikely to finish Natal, even if he may get a win. I suggest avoiding him in your lineups.

    OUR LINE-UPS

    RYAN FREDERICK- Sage Northcutt ($11,000), Randy Brown ($10,500), Josh Barnett ($10,100), Rafael Natal ($9,900), Ryan Bader ($8,500)

    I like Sage Northcutt to continue his undefeated streak and score a finish against a late replacement. Bryan Barberena will be tough but Northcutt really is a skilled fighter. It’ll get tougher from here for sure. I see Randy Brown getting a finish in his UFC debut. He has a good skillset and is a good prospect. Josh Barnett is another pick as I have him winning over Ben Rothwell, and I think a submission win is a good bet as he should be able to take Rothwell down. Rafael Natal is a pick I had to think about. I have him winning, but I don’t know if it’ll be by decision or a finish. I think he has a good shot at submitting Kevin Casey, but not overly confident he will finish him. I just see him as the best option with what I had left. Lastly, I’m going with Ryan Bader. His salary helped pick some higher-priced fighters, and I think if he can push a grinding fight, he has a good shot at submitting Anthony Johnson, or at worst, getting a decision win, and the extra ten minutes would add to the point totals.

    PAUL FONTAINE- Sage Northcutt ($11,000), Olivier Aubin-Mercier ($10,400), Dustin Ortiz ($10,300), Felipe Olivieri ($9,400), Jake Ellenberger ($8,800)

    Sage Northcutt is going to finish Bryan Barbarena. Everyone watching this show knows this and he’s a no-brainer for the team. Fighting at 170 could be to his advantage as he should have more power at that weight and his frame can certainly sustain it. Barbarena is taking the biggest fight of his life on short notice here and it should be a quick win for Zach Morris 2.0. Aubin-Mercier has been constantly improving since losing to Chad Laprise in his official UFC debut by split decision at the TUF Nations finale. He should grind out a late submission or possibly a dominant decision win here as he continues his rise up the lightweight rankings. Ortiz is one of the few flyweights with KO power and I like him to finish Wilson Reis. Ortiz’ only two UFC losses were to Joseph Benavidez and John Moraga and Reis isn’t in the class of either of those two. Ellenberger-Saffiedine is interesting. Ellenberger has been the more active fighter recently but he’s also on a slide. Saffiedine hasn’t fought in 15 months since suffering a KO loss to Rory McDonald. I like Ellenberger to rebound with a KO but I am going on a bit of a limb here as you sometimes have to do to get everyone in under the $50,000 cap. My last pick is someone making his UFC debut in Felipe Oliveri. He’s a finisher, having ran up 4 first round KO’s in his last 5 fights. His opponent Tony Martin has been finished in two of his 3 UFC losses. Oliveri scores another quick win here and probably sends Martin packing from UFC.

    PEACH MACHINE- Anthony Johnson ($10,900), Alex Caceres ($10,800), Jimmie Rivera ($10,200), Jake Ellenberger ($8,800), Bryan Barberena ($8,400)

    I like Johnson to KO Bader. As in, I’d love it. Bader has been such a disappointment. That said, I could see him exposing Rumble if he can make this a grinder. I don’t think he will though… Barbarena is tough and I was thoroughly unimpressed by Northcutt’s most recent outing… Bruce Leroy Caceres should be able to handle the guy on Sherdog who doesn’t have a profile pic. He has to, as he’s lost 3 in a row and needs a win badly here… I really like Jimmie Rivera. He’s on a 16 fight win streak, and Alcantara is not that good… I’m taking Ellenberger because I’m low on cash and don’t really like anyone else I can afford. 

  • UFC 192 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

    UFC 192 comes your way on Saturday night from the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. Headlined by the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship on the line when Daniel Cormier defends against Alexander Gustafsson, the show brings a stacked card, but went through a last-minute change. Hopefully that didn’t make too much of a difference to those drafting their teams on DraftKings for this week. Let’s take a look at some studs, duds and value plays as you set up your team for Saturday night.

    First off, let’s briefly recap last week. We had our studs as Diego Brandao and Takeya Mizugaki. Brandao won quick by knockout in the first round, and he had the highest point total. Mizugaki won a decision, scoring a solid amount of points. Our value plays were Roy Nelson and Yusuke Kasuya, both of whom lost, but Nelson did score a good amount of points as his fight went five rounds. We told you to avoid Gegard Mousasi and Katsunori Kikuno, and we hope you did because they scored the two lowest point totals last week.

    STUDS

    Rose Namajunas ($10,600)

    I like Rose Namajunas in her bout against Angela Hill. While Namajunas is just 2-2 in her career and has lost two straight fights, she meets someone who she actually has the experience edge over in Hill. Hill is just 2-1 in her career and is coming off a loss to Tecia Torres where she didn’t look all that impressive (neither did Torres for that matter). You can attribute that to the altitude of Mexico, but Hill has been suspect to submissions in her short career, as seen on TUF 20 when she lost to Carla Esparza. Namajunas has excellent submission skills, and I expect her to be able to score a finish on a fight card that may not see a lot of them.

    Sage Northcutt ($10,500)

    Sage Northcutt is getting a lot of hype coming into the UFC as a 19-year-old, but he has the skills to back it up. He is getting a bout against a tough opponent in Francisco Trevino, but one who is near the bottom of the list when you rank all of the lightweights. It is a showcase to see if Northcutt is the real deal, or if this is all coming too quick for him. He has finished all five of his opponents, and only one fight has gone past the first round. Trevino only has one loss in his 13 professional fights, so he is no easy match-up. I do expect Northcutt to finish him though. Also, Trevino missed weight on Friday by a large margain.

    VALUES

    Alan Jouban ($9,100)

    Alan Jouban is relatively cheap on this card, and a good look for an underdog. He has a tough fight against Albert Tumenov, who has shown solid striking and good wrestling. Jouban has power and is good on the feet, and the betting odds are a lot longer than I expected. That made the salaries of the two a greater distance than I expected, so Jouban shot to the top of my list of value plays. He has a solid chance at finishing Tumenov with the power in his hands.

    Jessica Eye ($8,700)

    Jessica Eye has something to prove when she meets Julianna Pena on Saturday night, and she wants to get that win and that finish. She is a big underdog to Pena, who is only 6-2 in her career, and lost two fights to lesser competition before she joined the UFC. Eye has fought tougher competition and is hungry to get back into the win column. Pena is too big of a favorite here, and she gets a tough opponent. This fight likely goes the distance, but with Eye’s boxing, you have the chance to score a lot of points with significant strikes. She is worth a play at the price tag.

    AVOID

    Viktor Pesta ($10,000)

    I’m avoid Viktor Pesta in his bout with Derrick Lewis. It is a heavyweight bout and those guys hit hard, but Lewis hits extremely hard. Pesta has good finishing abilities, or at least he did before joining the UFC. He hasn’t shown that power in his two UFC bouts, whereas Lewis always shows that power. I actually expect Lewis to score a finish in the fight, and it gives me all the reason to avoid Pesta.

    Ryan Bader ($9,300)

    Ryan Bader hasn’t finished an opponent since submitting Vladimir Matyushenko in January 2013. He has won four straight fights, but all have been lackluster decision wins. His fight against Rashad Evans will likely go the distance. I think Evans wins the fight too. Evans may have missed two years of action, but he is still a top-level fighter unless those days are behind him after the knee injuries. Bader likely will not be able to finish him, unless we see a completely different Ryan Bader. I’m not counting on it.

    OUR LINEUPS

    RYAN FREDERICK- Daniel Cormier ($11,000), Sage Northcutt ($10,500), Yair Rodriguez ($10,400), Alan Jouban ($9,100), Jessica Eye ($8,700)

    I like Northcutt, Jouban and Eye for the reasons stated above. I like Cormier to finish Gustafsson in the middle rounds, and with Gustafsson leaving himself open to eat punches, I see Cormier scoring some solid points on significant strikes. I like Rodriguez to score a finish as well as he has excellent skills and a good submission game. I do like Northcutt and Jouban to score finishes as well, and Eye to land a lot of volume on an opponent who likes to eat punches.

    PAUL FONTAINE- Sage Northcutt ($10,500), Albert Tumenov ($10,300), Rashad Evans ($10,100), Adriano Martins ($9,700), Derrick Lewis ($9,400)

    Martins is one of the most underrated fighters in the division, who’s only lost to Donald Cerrone in his UFC career. He’s also a finisher. Lewis is likely to score a knockout and pick me up some big bonus points. He’s a bit of a front runner, so fighting against a fighter ranked lower than him is probably a recipe for an early KO. Tumenov has two first round KO’s in his four UFC fights and the other two went to the judges but he landed a lot of strikes so he should be good to rack up some points and likely to win against Alan Jouban. Sage Northcutt is a future star and a finishing machine and I think he’ll make an auspicious debut against an overmatched Francisco Trevino. Rashad is likely grind out a decision win over Ryan Bader and probably land a lot of strikes in the process.

    PEACH MACHINE- Daniel Cormier ($11,000), Joseph Benavidez ($10,900), Rashad Evans ($10,100), Chris Cariaso ($9,200), Jessica Eye ($8,700)

    You have to take the champ.  This is going to be a frustrating night for the Mauler, and with this expected to last five rounds, that’s a lot of points. A volume striker vs. a plodder,  Benavidez should pay off big points with his high speed combos. I love Rashad. I even named my one of my dogs after him. (My dogs names are Hendo, Shogun, Sugar, and Rowdy.) This is more a pick with my heart. Normally I would not touch a potential boring wrestling match up, but Sugar fell within my salary cap, so I had to pick him. I thought Cariaso looked good against Cejudo, a superior opponent.  I expect him to get back on a win streak. Eye looked good in round one against Tate, another superior opponent.  I like the fast turn around here because she has something to prove.  I expect her to come out strong and get a first round finish. I think she hits harder than Pena. I don’t like picking one round knock out fights in the heavyweight division.  You either win big, or get nothing, and it’s basically a coin toss.  My strategy is to score in every pick, even if it’s not the max.  Just get in the money (which I failed to do last time).  Luckily, living in the great state of Tennessee, DraftKings won’t let me sign up because we have antiquated laws here.

    LAST WEEK’S RESULTS
    RYAN- 279.00
    PAUL- 266.00
    PEACH- 212.50