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  • UFC Fight Night 90 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

    It is UFC International Fight Week in Las Vegas, Nevada and Thursday night brings us UFC Fight Night 90, the first of three straight nights of action inside the Octagon.

    This event will be headlined by a UFC Lightweight Championship bout as champion Rafael Dos Anjos defends against challenger Eddie Alvarez.

    Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when setting your fantasy lineups for Thursday night’s event.

    STUDS

    Joseph Duffy ($11,100)

    Joseph Duffy is coming off a loss to Dustin Poirier in which he was completely outclassed, so he takes a big step backwards in taking on Mitch Clarke on Thursday.

    Clarke will be fighting for the first time since losing to Michael Chiesa in April 2015. The 2-3 Clarke appears to be a rebound fight for Duffy, who is 14-2 in his career and was ranked in the top 15 prior losing against Poirier.

    Duffy is a finisher and 13 of his 14 wins have come by stoppage. Clarke has only been finished once in his career, but he doesn’t have the same skillset that Duffy does. Duffy is a strong striker, has excellent submissions and good grappling. Clarke is a good grappler as well, but loses this match-up on foot.

    Duffy has the highest salary of all the fighters on the card, but is still a good investment. I expect him to win big on Thursday.

    Gilbert Burns ($10,800)

    Gilbert Burns is looking to bounce back from his first career loss when he fights Lukasz Sajewski on the card’s prelims Thursday night. Burns had won the first 11 fights of his career before dropping a decision to Rashid Magomedov in November.

    That loss is nothing for Burns to hang his head about as Magomedov is 19-1 in his career, but it showed some holes that Burns needs to fill to get back on track inside the Octagon.

    At his best, Burns is arguably the lightweight division’s best submission artist and has the strongest grappling chops. He has scored 10 of his 11 wins by finish, with seven wins by submission. He also trains with a strong camp in the Blackzilians.

    He is a strong favorite over Sajewski, who also lost for the first time in his career when he made his UFC debut in his last fight. Sajewski hasn’t fought the level of competition that Burns has. And if Burns can avoid the slow start that has often plagued him, he should be able to end this quickly. I feel confident in having him as a stud play.

    VALUE PLAYS

    Eddie Alvarez ($8,600)

    Eddie Alvarez is looking to make history when he challenges Rafael Dos Anjos for the UFC Lightweight Championship in the main event of UFC Fight Night 90. And he is also looking to become the first fighter to hold championship gold in both the UFC and Bellator promotions.

    He gets his title shot against Dos Anjos on the heels of wins over former champions in Anthony Pettis and Gilbert Melendez. Alvarez has just two losses in the last eight years, coming to Michael Chandler and Donald Cerrone, so he presents a real challenge in this fight.

    Dos Anjos has looked like a killer the last several years and is the rightful champion at 155 pounds. He finished Cerrone quickly in his last fight, but is coming off an injury and no one knows what he will look like in this new era of the UFC.

    I actually like Alvarez to score an upset as this fight goes the distance and the extra time allows for more point scoring opportunities. He is a risk, but I find a lot of value in Alvarez.

    Alvaro Herrera ($8,500)

    Alvaro Herrera is another interesting fighter with a low salary who has a lot of value on Thursday night’s card. He is coming off a 30-second knockout win in his UFC debut in November, which was his first fight in over three years.

    He gets back to action against Vicente Luque in the opening bout of Thursday’s card, and Luque is looking to score his second straight win.

    Luque has been inconsistent in his career, winning just eight times in 14 career bouts. He is tough to finish, having only been finished twice in his five losses. But Luque has finished opponents in seven of his eight wins, including in his last bout against Hayder Hassan in December. Herrera has scored finishes in eight of his nine wins, but has also been finished in all three of his losses.

    This fight is primed for a finish, and I see Herrera’s punching power being the difference. His salary is worth a good amount of value.

    FIGHTERS TO AVOID

    Anthony Birchak ($10,700)

    Anthony Birchak has one of the highest salaries on the card, and I don’t think he’s worth that high price.

    Birchak is just 1-2 inside the UFC Octagon, and all three of his fights have ended in the first round. He has suffered a submission loss to Ian Entwistle and a knockout loss to Thomas Almeida, and scored a knockout win over Joe Soto in betweeen those losses. Birchak does have 10 wins by finish, but he has been finished in all three of his losses.

    I do like him to get the win over Dileno Lopes on Thursday, but I’m not all that confident in him winning by stoppage. I see him going the distance and getting a decision over Lopes. With his high salary, you have to expect a finish if you have him on your team. Birchak is an easy avoid for me.

    Russell Doane ($9,000)

    Russell Doane is another fighter that should be avoided on Thursday night’s card.

    He hasn’t fought in almost a year and is coming in riding a two-fight losing skid. His last three fights have gone the distance and he hasn’t looked overly impressive in those bouts.

    He gets a tough match-up against Pedro Munhoz, who has been one of the top prospects in the bantamweight division, but has struggled against tougher competition.

    Doane doesn’t land a lot of strikes in his fights, but he is good at takedowns. Munhoz has good takedown defense and is the more well-rounded fighter. And I see that being the difference with him taking a decision. Avoid Doane as I feel he will be fighting a losing battle on Thursday.

    OUR LINE-UPS

    RYAN FREDERICK- Joseph Duffy ($11,100), Gilbert Burns ($10,800), Derrick Lewis ($9,600), Alberto Mina ($9,500), Eddie Alvarez ($8,600)

    I like Joseph Duffy as my top play on the card and I see him having no troubles against Mitch Clarke. I’m expecting him to end it by at least the end of the second round, and probably even in the first.

    I also like Gilbert Burns to bounce back and get a stoppage win, likely by submission as his ground game is so good.

    I have Derrick Lewis on my team as well. He has the size and power edge over Roy Nelson, and I think he can knock Nelson out. Alberto Mina is undefeated with 11 stoppage wins, and is facing Mike Pyle who is nearing the end of his career. I can see Mina knocking Pyle out early in their fight.

    The last fighter on my team is Eddie Alvarez. I believe he will end Thursday night as the new UFC Lightweight Champion, and that it will go the distance, which gives him more chances to score points.

    PAUL FONTAINE- Vicente Luque ($10,900), Reginaldo Vieira ($10,200), Roy Nelson ($9,800), Alberto Mina ($9,500), Dileno Lopes ($8,700)

    All but one of Luque’s career wins have come by finish and his opponent Alvaro Herrera has been finished in all three of his losses. To me, that’s a recipe for some bonus points for Luque.

    Vieira was the TUF Brazil season 4 champion and he beat a guy I also have on my team in his official UFC debut. That win was the first time he’d gone to the judges in one of his wins. I see the fight with Marco Beltran being an all-out balls to the wall brawl with Vieira being the last one standing.

    Roy Nelson should score a late KO or submission over Derrick Lewis. Nelson is tough to finish and Lewis will probably gas out before getting caught by a shot that drops him.

    I’m surprised Alberto Mina is an underdog against the aging Mike Pyle. Mina scored a finish in his UFC debut and then beat a tough vet in Yoshihiro Akiyama in his follow-up. He’s unbeaten and an impressive finish over a another vet like Pyle should move him up the ranks.

    My last pick is more a pick against Anthony Birchak than for Dileno Lopes. Birchak has been finished in the first round of two of his last three fights. And Lopes has a KO or sub in eight of his last nine wins. 

    PEACH MACHINE- Rafael Dos Anjos ($11,000), Alan Jouban ($10,000), Derrick Lewis ($9,600), Alberto Mina ($9,500), Marco Beltran ($9,200)

    I hate this card, but I love Rafael Dos Anjos. He’s really good and will most likely be one of the most dominant champions in UFC history after it’s all said and done.

    Nelson is done and Lewis will KO him. I hate Pyle so I’m picking Mina. Jouban is handsome. I just love Carlos Beltran of the NY Yankees and I assume Marco is related. Play this lineup!

  • UFC Fight Night 89 DFS Playbook: Value picks & who to avoid

    The Octagon heads back to Canada this weekend, visiting the capital city of Canada for the first time for UFC Fight Night 89 in Ottawa, Ontario. The event is headlined by a pivotal bout in the welterweight division as Rory MacDonald and Stephen Thompson will do battle for five rounds. Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when setting your fantasy line-ups for Saturday’s event.

    STUDS —

    Steve Bosse ($10,700)

    Steve Bosse is going to be one of our top plays for this Saturday’s card. He is a knockout artist, and his opponent, Sean O’Connell, has lost three of his five fights inside the Octagon, with two of those losses coming by knockout. O’Connell himself is a finisher, with nine knockout wins in his career, so this will likely be a battle of big swingers. I don’t expect it to go the distance as Bosse has only been out of the first round just three times in his professional career. Both of his losses have come by knockout, though, and it may make him a little bit of a risk.

    With that said, some may look to avoid him just due to his large salary, but I don’t expect him to have much trouble with O’Connell. I’m confident in making Bosse our top play for this weekend, and a knockout win is what I expect to see on Saturday night.

    Colby Covington ($10,400)

    Colby Covington is coming off of his first career loss in his last fight when he was submitted quickly by Warlley Alves. Alves, despite losing his last fight himself, has shown to be a high-level fighter, and Covington isn’t quite ready for that level. He goes back down a notch on Saturday, fighting Jonathan Meunier, who is a late injury replacement for Alex Garcia. That should give Covington an edge as Meunier didn’t come onto the card until June 9, and he fought just a few weeks ago.

    Covington is a good wrestler and very powerful at 170 pounds, and he has five submission wins in his career. I’m actually surprised his salary isn’t higher given the circumstances of this fight coming together, but that likely has to do with Meunier being 7-0 with seven finishes, including six in the first round. That may lead people to think Meunier is a good value pick, but I still like Covington to score a finish.

    VALUE PLAYS —

    Leandro Silva ($9,500)

    In searching this card for some value, I’m finding it hard to find a lot of underdogs that are primed for upset victories as I expect a lot of the favorites, and higher-salaried fighters, to score the wins. I’m going with Leandro Silva as an underdog to score a win, but his salary is a little higher than most of our value plays. Silva is unbeaten in his last four fights and he is showing more confidence each time he steps inside the Octagon.

    He is a quality lower-level lightweight in the UFC, and that is a good position to be in to build up yourself as a fighter. He is taking on Jason Saggo, who is 2-1 in the UFC, but is coming off an impressive win in March. Silva has fought tougher competition in the UFC, and he is a good submission artist, with ten of his 19 career wins coming by submission. I like Silva to score the win, whether by submission or decision, making him a good value pick.

    Ion Cutelaba ($8,500)

    This is a tough one as Ion Cutelaba is making his UFC debut against a very tough light heavyweight in Misha Cirkunov. Cirkunov is 2-0 with the UFC with both wins by finish, and it is a little surprising that he is getting another fighter making his UFC debut in Cutelaba. Cutelaba is coming into the UFC with an 11-1 career record, with all eleven wins coming by stoppage- nine knockouts and two submissions. Even more impressive is the fact that ten of those eleven wins have come in the first round.

    His one loss was controversial as he was disqualified for punches to the back of the head in a fight he was dominating likely heading to finish. He is a tough opponent, and Cirkunov may be in a lot of trouble. Cutelaba has a very low salary, and Cirkunov has the second-highest salary on the card, so there is a lot of value in Cutelaba, and I think he is worth the risk.

    FIGHTERS TO AVOID —

    Ali Bagautinov ($10,800)

    Ali Bagautinov’s salary is just too high for me to recommend having him on your roster for this card as there are several better options with lower salaries. I’m actually surprised that his salary is so high as he has lost two straight fights and didn’t look the same in his last bout after being out of action for over a year due to a drug suspension. His opponent, Geane Herrera, is making his third appearance inside the Octagon, with a 1-1 record so far.

    He is coming off an impressive knockout win over Joby Sanchez in his last fight, and his debut fight was a decision loss to Ray Borg in a fight he had a lot of chances in. Herrera is a very good opponent for Bagautinov, and has the chance for an upset, which makes Bagautinov’s high salary even more puzzling. Avoid Bagautinov in this fight.

    Joe Soto ($9,400)

    Joe Soto is 0-3 in the UFC, so he finds himself in a must-win situation when he steps inside the Octagon on Saturday. Most fighters would be cut with that UFC record, but he gets more chances due to saving an event by stepping up at the last minute to fight T.J. Dillashaw for a championship in his UFC debut, but he still needs a win. Soto had a close loss in his last fight, and many thought he won that fight. He will be taking on Chris Beal on Saturday, another fighter in a must-win situation as Beal has lost his last two fights.

    I expect both men to play it safe and not fight with a lot of reckless action, and it could make for a boring fight. I do think Soto is going to score the win, but not rack up a lot of points in the process. I would recommend avoiding Soto on Saturday.

    OUR LINEUPS

    RYAN FREDERICK- Steve Bosse ($10,700), Tamdan McCrory ($10,600), Colby Covington ($10,400), Stephen Thompson ($9,800), Ion Cutelaba ($8,500)

    I feel pretty good about this line-up, though I think the same thing for every event and it doesn’t always work out. I like Steve Bosse to get a quick knockout win and score maximum points. Colby Covington is another I like to get a quick finish as he has a short-notice replacement opponent. I like Tamdan McCrory as he has looked impressive since returning to action and is coming off a very good submission win over Josh Samman, though he has a tough foe in Krzysztof Jotko on Saturday.

    Ion Cutelaba is my hail mary play as he has a very low salary and has a very good chance at getting an upset win in his UFC debut. And I will be taking Stephen Thompson. I do think he will beat Rory MacDonald, but I also think it will be by decision. Going that extra two rounds opens up for more points scoring opportunites. I also think he may be a sneaky shot at getting a finish.

    PAUL FONTAINE- Olivier Aubin-Mercier ($11,000), Steve Bosse ($10,700), Valerie Letourneau ($10,100), Patrick Cote ($9,200), Ion Cutelaba ($8,500)

    Aubin-Mercier is a stud and a finisher. Fighting in his home country and close to his home town, I’m really liking him to have a star-making performance here. Bosse’s fight should be fun and he’s got the power to finish anyone in the division and his opponent O’Connell has been stopped in 2 of his 3 most recent losses. Letourneau is coming off a strong performance against Joanna Champion, lasting 5 rounds with the strawweight queen. She should have more power at flyweight and her opponent Calderwood has proven to be vulnerable to submissions as well.

    Cote has been on the best run of his career and I think he’s got a huge size advantage over Cerrone, who usually competes at lightweight. Cote was not small at middleweight and he should have the power to stop Cerrone. My last pick is a bit of a gamble but Ion Cutelaba has scored stoppages in each of his 9 pro wins so I’m hoping for the same in his UFC debut. 

    PEACH MACHINE- Randa Markos ($10,500), Donald Cerrone ($10,200), Valerie Letourneau ($10,100), Stephen Thompson ($9,800), Sam Alvey ($9,100)

    Another stellar lineup if I may say so my self, and I may… I like Thompson a lot here. McDonald in his first fight back after that terrible nose break may be a little gun shy. I’m betting Thompson capitalizes. Cerrone, in my book, way outclasses Cote. This is another easy pick. I like Randa Markos and Lybarger didn’t look good her last time out. Smilin Sam is my under dog pick. He’s always in it and has KO pop. Finally, I think Letourneau easily wins here. And her names is the same as that teacher in Florida who married her student… first.