Welcome to WrestlingObserver.com’s live coverage of the UFC Fight Night 78: Magny vs. Gastelum weigh-ins from Arena Monterrey in Monterrey, Mexico kicking off at 6 PM eastern time. The event airs on Saturday on FS1 at 10 PM eastern time. Preliminary card action kicks off on UFC Fight Pass at 6:30 PM eastern time before moving over to FS1 at 8 PM eastern time. This will be the UFC’s debut in Monterrey, and the Octagon’s third overall trip to Mexico.
The event will be headlined by a five-round welterweight bout as Neil Magny fights for the fifth time in 2015, taking a short-notice bout as an injury replacement for Matt Brown, to take on Kelvin Gastelum, who makes his return to the welterweight division. Both men are competing in their first headline bout as UFC competitors. In the co-main event, it will be former featherweight title challenger Ricardo Lamas taking on the last man standing from the original “Ultimate Fighter”, Diego Sanchez, who moves down to 145 pounds, the fourth weight class he has competed in during his UFC career. Also on the card is a flyweight title eliminator as Jussier Formiga takes on Olympic gold medalist Henry Cejudo, as well as the finals of this season of “The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America 2”.
MAIN CARD (FS1- 10 PM ET/7 PM PT): Neil Magny (171) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (171) Ricardo Lamas (146) vs. Diego Sanchez (145) Jussier Formiga (126) vs. Henry Cejudo (126) Erick Montano (169) vs. Enrique Marin (170) – TUF: Latin America 2 Welterweight Finals Horacio Gutierrez (154) vs. Enrique Barzola (155) – TUF: Latin America 2 Lightweight Finals Efrain Escudero (156) vs. Leandro Silva (155)
PRELIMINARY CARD (FS1- 8 PM ET/5 PM PT): Erik Perez (136) vs. Taylor Lapilus (136) Hector Urbina (171) vs. Bartosz Fabinski (170) Scott Jorgensen (135.5) vs. Alejandro Perez (135.5) Gabriel Benitez (145) vs. Andre Fili (145)
PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC FIGHT PASS- 6:30 PM ET/3:30 PM PT): Vernon Ramos (170) vs. Alvaro Herrera (171) Cesar Arzamendia (155) vs. Polo Reyes (155) Valmir Lazaro (156) vs. Michel Prazeres (155)
*Everyone made weight with no issues, including Gastelum and Cejudo, who have had previous issues, and Sanchez, who was moving down to featherweight for the first time.
The Octagon travels to Monterrey, Mexico for UFC Fight Night 78 on Saturday night, the third straight weekend of UFC action, with a main event of welterweight action as Neil Magny takes on Kelvin Gastelum. Below are our studs of the night, our value picks of the night, and fighters you should avoid on the night to help fill out your DraftKings lineups.
STUDS
Kelvin Gastelum ($10,900)
Kelvin Gastelum is coming into his headline bout against Neil Magny with a lot of expectations on his shoulders, and he is hoping to live up to them. He is a good play against Magny, who comes into the fight on short notice as an injury replacement. Magny is solid competition, but one who has faltered when faced with the high-level competition. Magny is ranked based on the fact he has gone 8-1 in his last nine fights, but that has been against unranked competition, aside from the loss to Demian Maia. In that loss to Maia, Magny was finished, like he has in three of his four losses. Gastelum is a pressure fighter who will land a lot of punches, as long as he can get inside Magny’s reach, and he has solid submission skills. On a card where there might be a lot of decisions, Gastelum is a good bet to score a finish.
Andre Fili ($10,700)
Andre Fili makes his return to the Octagon after being out of action for eight months when he takes on Gabriel Benitez. Fili has been up-and-down during his UFC tenure but he has the chance to make a run as a legitmate 145-pound prospect. He has been submitted in both of his UFC losses, but he has looked good in his UFC wins, landing a lot of punches and getting one finish. He has an opponent in Gabriel Benitez who has won both of his UFC bouts, but hasn’t looked too great against the lower competition. Fili is a big step up in competition. Fili has a good chance to get a lot of points and score a finish.
VALUE PICKS
Taylor Lapilus ($9,400)
Taylor Lapilus is a fast-rising bantamweight prospect who will get the toughest test of his career when he takes on Erik Perez. Perez is coming off a 17-month layoff when he makes his return, and he is coming off of being submitted by Bryan Caraway. There are some holes in the skills of Perez, and Lapilus is someone who can exploit them. Lapilus has good power and a very solid submission game, and he is good value as his price. He has the tools to give Perez some fits during the fight, and the chance to rack up some points.
Hector Urbina ($8,900)
Hector Urbina is coming into his fight against Bartosz Fabinski as a big underdog despite having won his last two fights by stoppage. Fabinski has won five straight fights and has eight knockout wins in his career, but he didn’t look like someone who was looking to finish when he got his decision win over Garreth McLellan in his UFC debut. He is also going into enemy territory taking on Urbina in Mexico. Urbina comes from a good camp in American Top Team, and he has scored 15 of his 17 wins by stoppage. Urbina, at his salary, is a very solid play that gives you good opportunity to spend up on higher-priced fighters.
AVOID
Ricardo Lamas ($11,200)
Ricardo Lamas is the biggest favorite on this card and thus has the highest salary on the card. That makes it seem like he is a sure bet to win. However, he is fighting Diego Sanchez. Sanchez initiates brawls that make the job of the judges hard. He wins fights he probably should lose on the scorecards, and they are always too close for comfort. Sanchez is also extremely tough to finish, as only B.J. Penn has been able to do so, and that was due to a huge cut. Sanchez is coming off a long layoff and is making the move down to featherweight, and Lamas is a tough opponent for his first time out. Sanchez’ style and relentless aggression make it hard for me to suggest using Lamas, so I am avoiding him and spending my money elsewhere.
Jussier Formiga ($8,300)
Jussier Formiga has the second-cheapest salary for all of the fighters on the card when he takes on Henry Cejudo. For being ranked third in his division, not many are giving him much of a chance against Cejudo on Saturday night. There is good reason for that as Formiga has faltered against top-level competition, and he doesn’t score a lot of points in fantasy games as it is. He will likely be taken down a lot and probably will eat a lot of punches, and probably won’t be able to land a lot of punches either. He probably won’t be able to finish Cejudo either, much less defeat him. Only use Formiga if you are in a must-need situation as I will avoid him.
OUR LINE-UPS
RYAN FREDERICK- Henry Cejudo ($11,100), Kelvin Gastelum ($10,900), Vernon Ramos ($10,300), Hector Urbina ($8,900), Erick Montano ($8,800)
I like Kelvin Gastelum and Hector Urbina for the reasons I stated above. I see them as having good chances at scoring finish wins in the early rounds, primarily by submission. I like Henry Cejudo to get a win, and he wants that title shot. He has an opponent in Jussier Formiga who can be finished, and Cejudo will be looking to score takedowns and finish it with ground-and-pound. Vernon Ramos is coming off of “TUF: Latin America 2” and has just three professional fights, but all three have been submission wins, and he gets an opponent who hasn’t fought since 2012. Erick Montano is a finalist of “TUF: Latin America 2”, and while he is the underdog against Enrique Marin, he has scored all six of his wins by stoppage, with five in the first round, and both of his wins on the show came by first-round stoppage. I like him at his cheap salary.
PAUL FONTAINE- Ricardo Lamas ($11,200), Henry Cejudo ($11,100), Efrain Escudero ($9,500), Alejandro Perez ($9,200), Gabriel Benitez ($8,700)
Lamas is about as close to a lock as there is on this card. Sanchez is WAY beyond his prime and would have losses in 4 of his last 5 fights if any of the judges had actually watched his fight with Ross Pearson. Lamas has only lost to the champion Jose Aldo and #2 contender Chad Mendes in the last 4 1/2 years. He should make quick work of Sanchez here. Henry Cejudo has a tough test in Jussier Formiga who will be in a title eliminator for the third time. But Cejudo is trying to earn a title shot so expect him to win and in impressive fashion. He should land a lot of strikes in a 3 round war and score the win. Alejandro Perez is one of the top Mexican prospects and looks to be in somewhat of a showcase fight against Scott Jorgensen, who has lost 5 of his last 6 fights and may not be long for this sport. I’m taking a bit of a chance on Gabriel Benitez but he is on a 2 fight win streak and is used to fighting in Mexico (which could be a big factor here). His opponent, Andre Fili, has a mediocre UFC record although he is the more expensive fighter for your roster. My last pick is veteran Efrain Escudero who has won two straight since losing in his UFC return last year. He has looked great, even in that loss, and will be cheered on by the Mexican crowd and should be able to score a win over the Brazilian Leandro Silva.
I like Gastelum. I think he’s going to dominate Magny, but it could take all five rounds, so I’m predicting big points from Gastelum. I don’t like Escudero. He’s really inconsistent and disappointing. I’m taking Silva to beat him. Ricardo Lamas and Sanchez are going to have a war. I think Sanchez is done but will be a hard out. I’m making the same argument against Jorgensen. He’s done but will be a tough out for Perez. Benitez over Fili. I’m not convinced Fili is any good.
The Notorious Quote of the Week: “As a warm up for the Aldo fight, I’d kill him! But they wouldn’t do it. They wouldn’t sacrifice your old ass for a fight.”
Last week, Team McGregor took a 5-3 lead. The final first round fight tonight is Abner Lloveras from Team McGregor and Jason Gonzalez from Team Faber. Here we go!
McGregor praises his team for being mentally strong. He notes that nobody has crumbled, or had an emotional breakdown, or begged to go home. “It’s a good experience to be here doing this show. We’re having a good time.” Abner Lloveras says (and I quote) “My game plan is to work on my well rounded.” McGregor says that he’s so experienced he doesn’t need to give Lloveras much advice. Lloveras: “You really need to trust in yourself and work out a lot in the gym to be a better fighter.”
The focus shifts to Team Faber. Urijah: “Jason is 90% standup so Abner’s game plan will be to take this fight down and get a submission.” TJ Dillashaw: “Gonzalez picks up on it really quick. He’s got a good style and he stays striking long.” Gonzalez: “I’m just coming in there well prepared for whatever comes at me.”
It’s time for the annual COACHES CHALLENGE. They drive out to a tent in the middle of the desert, while Dana White gets to cruise in via helicopter. The helicopter is actually key though – they have to fly over the top of a giant bullseye and drop five watermelons. The coach with the most points at the end wins $10,000 and $1,500 for each member of their team. Confidence is high for “Mystic Mac” as we go to break.
Faber gets 25. McGregor gets 25. Faber gets 10. McGregor gets 10. Faber gets 50. McGregor gets 10. Faber gets 0. McGregor gets 25. Faber hits a bullseye on his very last shot for 100 to take 185-70 lead. McGregor can’t win now even if he hits the bullseye – it’s all over. McGregor: “F–k the challenge. I feel sick as a dog over that. I don’t like losing. Congratulations to that little buffet twerp.”
Gonzalez talks about his family being from Nicaragua and living through the civil war there. Lloveras talks about his wife and baby daughter. “I have them on my mind always and I will for sure fight harder to give them a good life – hopefully.”
Lloveras is my Fighter to Watch for this episode, and not just because he’s in the fight. He’s an Olympic level boxer, a black belt in muay thai, and a brown belt in jiu-jitsu. He’s the oldest guy on the show but at 19-7-1 he’s also among the most experienced. Gonzalez is also a Fighter to Watch, because he’s young and strong and anybody praised by Dillashaw for his striking is doing something right.
No weigh-ins today – we’re going straight to the fight. Lloveras: “P–ies don’t come here to fight. We’re big boys and we need to show that.”
Lightweight: Abner Lloveras (Europe) vs. Jason Gonzalez (USA)
Lloveras is in the gray trunks and Gonzalez the blue. Lloveras is as predicted looking for takedowns and Gonzalez does a good job of stuffing the attempts, just missing with a high kick on the break that could have ended the fight. He pours it on as Lloveras backs away and lands a big knee to the body. He hits another jumping knee and Lloveras clinches up for a leg trip – he gets it at 2:55 and is quickly in full mount. He loses it and gets it back at 3:45. Big elbows and big rights from on top. Lloveras did more in those last two minutes than Gonzalez did the first three so I’d give him the round.
If this is going three then Gonzalez is going to win this round, but for the first minute he’s getting beaten to the punch and is in danger of being single legged again. Lloveras gets his takedown at 1:10 but Gonzalez gets right back up and avoids a back mount. Lloveras gets a takedown again at 1:40 and another full mount. It’s not going well for Gonzalez. Gonzalez manages to push off the fence and roll to escape but Lloveras gets the mount again at 2:30. Gonzalez tries again to push off and gets up at 3:15. Lloveras goes right for a single leg but has to reset before he can get it at 3:42. That’s pretty much a wrap as Gonzalez is exhausted from fighting to get up and breathing hard. He pushes off at 4:20 and stands but is taken down with ease five seconds later. The judges should make this unanimous.
20-18 X3 for Abner Lloveras. Not shocking at all. Team McGregor finishes the first round of fights with a 6-3 lead.
The gimmick moment of the show has arrived as one winner has to be cut. It would be more fair to cut one of McGregor’s guys since he has more men in the hunt, but it’s Dana White’s call in the end as to who didn’t “perform.” He sits down with Faber and McGregor. Mystic Mac immediately calls for Gruetzemacher to be cut, and defends Svensson by saying it may have been boring but at least Svensson got a submission.
White agrees. He says Lloveras has terrible ground and pound skills, but he got the submission and the win; meanwhile Gruetzemacher had points where he could have gone for broke and didn’t so he blew it. Now McGregor has to match up his own guys against each other, but before he can do that he and Faber get into a pissing war about who makes more money and who would win if the two of them got in a fight – which is where this week’s Notorious Quote of the Week comes from.
Time for the announcement of the quarterfinals. Dana White informs Gruetzemacher that he’s cut, but tells him to stay ready in case anybody on either team gets injured – if they do he’s back in. The first fight is Artem Lobov vs. Martin Svensson. There’s little doubt in my mind Svensson wins that. The second fight is Saul Rogers vs. Ryan Hall. That’s more of a coin flip. The third fight is Marcin Wrzosek vs. David Teymur. I’ve got “The Polish Zombie” in that one. Last but not least it’s Julian Erosa vs. Abner Lloveras, and I heavily favor the latter in that bout. Ryan Hall is now the best hope of Team Faber winning at the end and he’s no better than a coin flip.
We move on from this week to see if “Mystic Mac” can run the table and have an all Team McGregor finals. Join us next week!
****This is a free edition of Josh Nason’s Punch-Out. Please share with your MMA friends and the world in general!****
We are living in a post-Ronda Rousey vs. Holly Holm world, and while the fight itself has been analyzed to death, there’s plenty to discuss with the business aspects of what happens next. That’s why Josh brought in former Bellator VP of Talent Relations and co-host of The MMA Insiders podcastSam Caplan to help talk about that and tons more! If you’re into MMA business talk, this podcast is for you!
Here’s some other topics Josh and Sam talked about:
– What Sam has been up to, including some other non-MMA endeavors
– His thoughts on where we’re at with Ronda Rousey and Holly Holm several days after the fight
– When he would make a Rousey-Holm rematch and it’s an answer you might not expect
– What he would do with Holly Holm from a media perspective
– The decision making that goes into making a big rematch
– His current thoughts on the Bellator product, and what they need to do to succeed
– His thoughts on OneFC and Ben Askren’s next move when his contract is up
– His thoughts on the Reebok deal, Cain Velasquez signing with CAA, and tons more!
*****
Listen to the show by clicking below or right-clicking/save:
Wrestling Observer Radio with Bryan Alvarez and Dave Meltzer returns tonight with tons of news to talk about including an epic rant from Dave regarding the Charlotte angle on Raw, Survivor Series notes, what John Cena is doing during his time off, the death of Bryan’s original trainer Ole Olsen, blockbuster numbers for UFC this past weekend, mailbag and more! A fun show as always so check it out~!
The UFC returns for the third straight weekend as they debut in a new city as the Octagon travels to Mexico for the third time. It will be UFC Fight Night 78, which will also serve as the finale for The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America 2 when the UFC invades Monterrey for the first time this Saturday night. The main card airs on FS1 starting at 10 PM eastern time, with preliminary action kicking off on UFC Fight Pass at 6:30 PM eastern time before moving over to FS1 at 8 PM eastern time. We will have coverage all weekend here.
The event will be headlined by a five-round welterweight bout as Neil Magny steps up, yet again, on short notice to take on Kelvin Gastelum, who looks to regain his traction in his return to the welterweight division. In the co-main event, it will be former featherweight title challenger Ricardo Lamas taking on the last man standing from the original TUF, Diego Sanchez. Also on the card is a potential flyweight title eliminator bout as Jussier Formiga takes on Olympic gold medalist Henry Cejudo. Let’s take a closer look at the night’s action and give you five storylines to keep an eye on during UFC Fight Night 78 on Saturday night.
1. Will Kelvin Gastelum get back on track in the welterweight division in the main event?
Kelvin Gastelum makes his return to the welterweight division in the main event of Saturday night’s UFC Fight Night 78 event, his first fight back at 170 pounds since missing weight badly for his bout against Tyron Woodley at UFC 183 in January. Gastelum has fought since then, scoring a dominant TKO win over Nate Marquardt as a middleweight at UFC 188 in June, but pleaded his case to UFC management to go back down to 170 pounds. They’re letting him, but another case of missing weight and he’ll be done as a welterweight. Gastelum has had the issues making the welterweight limit, officially missing weight twice and coming close a couple of other times. He says he has the issues under control, but that truly remains to be seen. If he has those issues taken care of, at 24-years-old, Gastelum has the chance to become a very serious threat in the division.
Gastelum has just one loss in his career, to Woodley, but it was a close split decision loss that Gastelum almost won. He has scored eleven wins in his career, with eight coming by stoppage. He is the youngest winner of “The Ultimate Fighter” in show history, and is a huge prospect making his first main event appearance. His opponent, Neil Magny, is also making his first headline appearance as he fights for the fifth time this year, taking the fight on short notice as an injury replacement for Matt Brown. Magny is known as the man to call in the welterweight division to take a short-notice opportunity, as this will be his second straight year to fight five times. He won all five of his fights in 2014, and he has gone 3-1 in his four 2014 bouts. His lone loss over the past two calendar years came to Demian Maia at UFC 190 in August, a bout that Magny was outclassed in. For all of Magny’s success over the past two years, he has only fought one fighter that was ranked at the time of the fight- Maia. Gastelum will be the second as Magny looks for his second straight win after defeating Erick Silva in August, just three weeks after his loss to Maia, in another bout he took on short notice.
Gastelum is a strong prospect and has the chance to be fighting for the title down the line if he can keep his weight issues in check. His size makes him better suited for the welterweight division, where he will be the relative same size as his opponents. It’s important for him to keep his weight in check. As far as his fight against Magny, it will be an interesting test. Magny isn’t a flashy fighter, but he gets the job done well. He has some decent power, but it has been showcased against lower-level competition. Magny will have a nine-inch reach advantage over Gastelum, which he will need to use to keep Gastelum on the outside. Gastelum is a solid wrestler and has some good power in his hands as well. Both men land a lot of strikes, and Gastelum eats a lot of punches. Neither man have gone 25 minutes. Gastelum, with the huge cut, may not have the energy to make it. Magny, with the short notice, may not either. This is a decent fight to make on short notice, but I like Gastelum to get the job done and move back up the rankings.
2. How much fight does Diego Sanchez have left?
And then there was one. Diego Sanchez is the last man standing in the UFC from the original cast of “The Ultimate Fighter” after the recent retirement of Mike Swick and the UFC departure of Josh Koscheck. Sanchez makes his long-awaited return on Saturday night in the co-main event, and in doing so, he will join another “TUF” alum, Kenny Florian, as a fighter to compete in four different weight classes in UFC competition as he makes the move to the featherweight division. It is an interesting time for a fighter to be dropping down with the IV ban, and with a long history of injuries, it is unsure how much fight Sanchez has left. He is 2-3 in his last five fights, but the two wins were split decisions that could’ve gone either way, so we are looking at a fighter that could very well have been on a five-fight losing skid. Sanchez is still only 33-years-old, but after having been with the UFC thru some 282 events, we may be seeing the end of the road for “The Nightmare”.
Sanchez will take on former featherweight title challenger Ricardo Lamas, the fourth-ranked fighter at 145 pounds in the UFC. Lamas is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Chad Mendes in April, and is looking to erase the sting of his first stoppage loss inside the Octagon. It is a tough first outing for Sanchez at 145 pounds, but we are talking about one of the most experienced fighters in the UFC. Only a handful of fighters have had more time inside the Octagon than Sanchez, who has fought for a title and fought in a main event seven times, and has been in countless “Fight Of The Year” fights. Sanchez has a penchant for having extremely close fights, and most have gone his way. This will probably be another close fight as both land solid punches, and it will likely stay on the feet. It will be a chess match, but at this stage, Lamas is simply a better fighter. Unless we see the Diego Sanchez of old, it will be Lamas walking away with the win.
3. Who will secure the next title shot at 125 pounds when Jussier Formiga and Henry Cejudo square off?
For all intents and purposes, the flyweight bout between Jussier Formiga and Henry Cejudo at UFC Fight Night 78 on Saturday will determine the next challenger for UFC Flyweight Champion Demetrious Johnson. That is definitely the case for Cejudo, who comes into the fight undefeated at 9-0 and has been being groomed for a title shot. Formiga has won three straight fights, and he isn’t quite a 100% lock, but if he were to put a 1 in the loss column of Cejudo, you have to think he will be given a crack at Johnson despite having lost prior UFC bouts to Joseph Benavidez and John Dodson, who have been frequent Johnson challengers in the short history of the UFC flyweight division. It will be an interesting battle on Saturday as it will be Formiga’s grappling skills going against the Olympic wrestling game of Cejudo.
Cejudo is the most decorated wrestler in the UFC, having won an Olympic gold medal at the 2008 Olympics. His striking has gotten better with every fight, and he hasn’t seen much of a need to rely on his wrestling skill, though he has recently, to win fights as he has won them primarily on the feet. Formiga is very experienced on his feet, but is capable of being knocked out, and aside from a submission win off a headbutt over Scott Jorgensen, he hasn’t shown the finishing capability in the Octagon. Cejudo hasn’t finished an opponent either, but he has yet to lose a round in the UFC. Cejudo is wanting that crack at Johnson and the title shot, and if he keeps his weight issues in check, which he has since dropping back down, he may give Johnson the toughest test to date. Formiga is Cejudo’s toughest foe, and while he has three straight wins, he hasn’t quite lived up to expectations. He has fallen short against the elite competition, and this fight is shaping up for that to happen again. Look for Cejudo to cement his shot at the title.
4. Will Efrain Escudero make it three straight against Leandro Silva?
Efrain Escudero has done something that no other fighter in the history of the UFC has been able to do. He is the only fighter to ever win a season of “The Ultimate Fighter” to be cut and then brought back to the promotion. In fact, this is Escudero’s third stint in the UFC. He won season eight of “TUF” but went just 3-2 in his first UFC stint, not a bad record by any means, but was cut after missing weight badly in his loss against Charles Oliveira. He was brought back in late 2011 as an injury replacement, but was cut again after two straight losses. He was brought back in 2014, and while he lost his return to Leonardo Santos, he has since won two straight to get himself back on track, and in his hopes, finally showing his potential in his third UFC stint.
It was almost five years between UFC wins for Escudero, but he goes into Saturday night against Leandro Silva looking for his first three-fight win streak inside the Octagon. Escudero’s last win was a 54-second submission win over Drew Dober in June, and he went on to coach this season of “TUF: Latin America 2”, and he will be one of the more popular fighters on the card. His opponent, Silva, should be on a three-fight win streak if not for an error by a referee that made his own win over Dober into a no contest, and he will be a tough test for Escudero. Escudero has some solid wrestling, but Silva is a good grappler. They are pretty even on the feet. Silva is a larger opponent and has used his strength to maintain top position in prior fights. Neither man is creeping up on being ranked in the division, but neither want to be in a position of being cut. I like Escudero to pull off a decision win.
5. Who is a fighter to keep an eye on during the rest of the card?
The card will feature the finals in the welterweight and lightweight tournaments coming off of “TUF: Latin America 2” when Erick Montano faces Enrique Marin in the welterweight finals, and Horacio Gutierrez takes on Enrique Barzola in the lightweight finals. Also on the card is a former winner of “TUF: Latin America” as Alejandro Perez, who won the first season in the bantamweight division, takes on UFC and WEC veteran Scott Jorgensen, who is looking to get back on track after a disappointing 4-7 tenure during his time with the UFC. In featherweight action, Gabriel Benitez will take on Team Alpha Male member Andre Fili. In the opening bout of the night, it is two powerful Brazilian lightweights as Valmir Lazaro takes on Michel Prazeres.
We wanna keep our eye on the featured preliminary bout as Erik Perez returns from a long layoff to take on Taylor Lapilus. Perez was thought to become the Mexican star the UFC was looking for, but he hasn’t quite lived up to recent expectations. After winning eight straight fights, including his first three UFC bouts. He has since lost two of his last three bouts, and he hasn’t fought since a June 2014 loss to Bryan Caraway. He gets a tough foe in Lapilus, who is an interesting prospect at 135 pounds. Lapilus is 10-1 in his career and has won five straight fights, including his last two in the UFC. He hasn’t fought someone at the level of Perez, who had been ranked in the top 15 before the bout of inactivity. It is a tough test for both men as Perez looks to bounce back and Laplius looks to score the biggest win of his career. We will keep an eye on that bout for sure.
Full UFC Fight Night 78 Fight Card, Betting Odds & Predictions
MAIN CARD (FS1- 10 PM ET/7 PM PT)
Welterweights: (#13) Neil Magny vs. (#15) Kelvin Gastelum Betting Odds: Magny (+230), Gastelum (-270) Prediction: Gastelum by decision
Featherweights: (#4) Ricardo Lamas vs. Diego Sanchez Betting Odds: Lamas (-590), Sanchez (+445) Prediction: Lamas by decision
Flyweights: (#3) Jussier Formiga vs. (#5) Henry Cejudo Betting Odds: Formiga (+400), Cejudo (-500) Prediction: Cejudo by decision
TUF: Latin America 2 Welterweight Finals: Erick Montano vs. Enrique Marin Betting Odds: Montano (+160), Marin (-185) Prediction: Montano by submission in round 1
TUF: Latin America 2 Lightweight Finals: Horacio Gutierrez vs. Enrique Barzola Betting Odds: Gutierrez (-150), Barzola (+130) Prediction: Gutierrez by knockout in round 2
Lightweights: Efrain Escudero vs. Leandro Silva Betting Odds: Escudero (+120), Silva (-140) Prediction: Escudero by decision
PRELIMINARY CARD (FS1- 8 PM ET/5 PM PT)
Bantamweights: Erik Perez vs. Taylor Lapilus Betting Odds: Perez (-125), Lapilus (+105) Prediction: Perez by decision
Welterweights: Hector Urbina vs. Bartosz Fabinski Betting Odds: Urbina (+165), Fabinski (-190) Prediction: Urbina by submission in round 2
Bantamweights: Scott Jorgensen vs. Alejandro Perez Betting Odds: Jorgensen (-145), Perez (+125) Prediction: Jorgensen by decision
Featherweights: Gabriel Benitez vs. Andre Fili Betting Odds: Benitez (+165), Fili (-190) Prediction: Fili by submission in round 2
For the first time ever, FILTHY FOUR DAILY with UFC star Tom Lawlor is FREE today! Tom has a second-by-second breakdown of the Ronda Rousey vs. Holly Holm fight including everything that Rousey did wrong leading to the biggest upset in the entire history of the UFC. You will learn, guaranteed, how to impress your friends and colleagues with the correct pronunciation of Joanna Jedrzejczyk’s name. We’ll also talk pro-wrestling, including a preview for tomorrow’s Retro Nitro review, all the details of our own tournament to win a copy of WWE2K16, how you can email Tom questions for a mailbag segment and more!
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9 Number of fights for Neil Magny since February 2014 as he fights for the fifth time in 2015, the second straight year he has fought five times in a calendar year
5 Number of wins for Magny in 2014, which tied the UFC record for most in a calendar year
27 Number of takedowns landed by Magny in his UFC career, tied for fifth-most among active UFC welterweights
524 Significant strikes landed by Magny in his UFC career, currently ninth-most among active UFC welterweights
2.17 Strike differential for Magny, which is the highest differential among active UFC welterweights
21 Age at which Kelvin Gastelum won “The Ultimate Fighter”, making him the youngest winner of TUF in history
2 Number of times Gastelum has officially missed weight for a welterweight bout out of five UFC bouts at 170 pounds
71.6 Significant strike defense percentage rate for Gastelum as a welterweight, which is the best among active UFC welterweights (min. 5 fights)
9 Inch reach disadvantage that Gastelum will have against Neil Magny
15 Current ranking for Gastelum in the UFC’s welterweight rankings
4 Current ranking for Ricardo Lamas in the UFC’s featherweight rankings
10:04 Average fight time for Lamas in the UFC
7 Submission attempts for Lamas in UFC competition, tied for seventh-most among active UFC featherweights
282 Number of UFC events that have occured since Diego Sanchez won the inaugural season of “The Ultimate Fighter”
4:37:57 Total fight time in the UFC career for Sanchez, which is fourth-most in UFC history
3 Times Sanchez has won “Fight Of The Year” in the Wrestling Observer Newsletter Year-End Awards
3 Current ranking for Jussier Formiga in the UFC’s flyweight rankings
10:08 Average fight time for Formiga in the UFC, which is the shortest in the short history of the UFC’s flyweight division
14 Guard passes for Formiga in his four UFC wins as he has zero in his two UFC losses
9 Straight wins for Henry Cejudo to start his MMA career
4.09 Significant strikes landed per minute for Cejudo, third-best among active UFC flyweights
184 Significant strikes landed for Cejudo in three UFC bouts
3 Number of UFC stints for Efrain Escudero, who is the only TUF winner to be cut and then brought back to the promotion
5 Knockdowns by Escudero in the UFC, which is tied for eighth-most among active UFC lightweights
1722 Days between UFC wins for Escudero, who won at UFC 114 in May 2010 but didn’t score another Octagon win until UFC Fight Night 60 in February
2.63 Average number of takedowns landed per 15 minutes for Leandro Silva in UFC competition
55.5 Submission finishing rate percentage for Silva, who has scored ten of his 18 wins by submission
10 Takedowns landed by Silva during UFC competition
532 Days since Erik Perez’ last fight, a loss to Bryan Caraway at UFC Fight Night 42 in June 2014
13 Takedowns landed by Perez, tied for sixth-most among active UFC bantamweights
7:33 Average fight time for Perez, shortest among active UFC bantamweights (min. 5 fights)
6 Inches of reach advantage Taylor Lapilus will have over his opponent, Erik Perez
5.18 strikes landed per minute by Lapilus
371 Days since Hector Urbina’s last fight, a submission win over Edgar Garcia at UFC 180 in November 2014
67 Win percentage rate by knockout for Bartosz Fabinski, who has scored eight of his 12 wins by KO/TKO
1 Number of wins by Scott Jorgensen since the start of 2013 as he enters UFC Fight Night 78 having gone 1-5 in his last six fights
23 Length of the last fight, in seconds, for Alejandro Perez, who is coming off a submission loss to Patrick Williams at UFC 188 in June
7 Number of times Gabriel Benitez has been taken down over his two UFC bouts
3.57 Average number of takedowns landed per 15 minutes for Andre Fili
178 Number of significant strikes landed in two UFC bouts for Valmir Lazaro
13 Number of takedowns landed in four UFC bouts by Michel Prazeres
2 Number of first-round wins of The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America 2 by welterweight finalist Erick Montano during the season
6 Straight wins by TUF: Latin America 2 welterweight finalist Enrique Marin
80 Finishing percentage rate for TUF: Latin America 2 lightweight finalist Enrique Barzola, who has scored eight of his ten wins by finish (4 by KO/TKO, 4 by submission)
3 Career fights for TUF: Latin America 2 lightweight finalist Horacio Gutierrez, making him the most inexperienced fighter on the fight card alongside Vernon Ramos
302 Number of days in the professional MMA career for Vernon Ramos, who made his professional debut on January 23 of this year
1178 Number of days since Alvaro Herrera last fought, which came on August 30, 2012
If there’s one thing that appeals to us, it’s a comeback story. As much as we like to tear down fame and accomplishment in some bizarre effort to cover up our own inadequacies, we love when someone that’s knocked down gets back up and rages against the dying of the light.
On this Sunday, there’s no better case for The Great American Comeback Story than with former UFC women’s bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey.
Let’s hang on that word: former. We now live in a world where the unthinkable is now reality: Rousey has a loss and a bad one at that. In front of a record 56,214 in Melbourne, Australia, what was hailed as the world’s most dangerous woman got her comeuppance against a woman in Holly Holm that is six years her elder and much less her level of fame. As crisp as Holm looked, Rousey looked as stale. While everything during fight week appeared as normal (even with that odd forced/farced pull-apart at the weigh-ins) something or someone put sugar in the machine’s gas tank.
In retrospect, we should have expected this at some point. With Rousey’s increased level of celebrity in 2015 came more opportunities for the outside world to creep in through the cracks of what was previously an impenetrable exterior.
Just look at the level of distraction this year alone: a) a book release, b) appearances in several movies, c) a whole lot of ESPN attention and awards, d) being asked about fighting Floyd Mayweather 10,000 times, e) getting cited by mainstream female stars like Beyonce, f) an appearance on Ellen and other mainstream talk shows, g) her head coach filed for bankruptcy, h) her mother did interviews ripping said coach where she mentioned running over him with a car, i) her relationship with Travis Browne went public, j) she had to defend her name against domestic violence from a past relationship and k) the bulk of the promotional load for three main event PPVs. Looking at all of that, it’s clear that it became too much to bear.
The Rousey that was knocked silly Saturday wasn’t the Rousey that started off 2015 and, as a result, she is now without a giant piece of metal and leather. Just as she was about to nearly fully escape the MMA bubble most of us exist in, the cold hand of reality grabbed her ankle and pulled her back down with the rest of us. She’s still a professional fighter — even if her agents and PR people are likely hoping for otherwise.
So, now what?
The prevailing thought is Rousey disappears for months and we get an early springtime announcement of a rematch with Holm at July’s UFC 200. While she will have shed off many of the fringe fans who like their stars perfect and without tarnish, the thought of Rousey coming back with something to prove has got to be tantalizing for Dana White & crew.
Depending on where we’re at when/if that fight gets announced, she should be favored. However, while we can expect that Rousey will be as motivated to get her title back as we think she should be, eight months is a long time away. A second loss would be devastating and a major setback to any Hollywood hopes. Her handlers have no doubt done a risk assessment, and perhaps they are saying, “Enough’s enough. If we’re going to do this movie thing, now’s the time.” They also might suggest that a big win in a Holm rematch would make her an even bigger star.
That’s the risk with athletes who want to go outside their lane and be known for more than what brought them to the dance to begin with. Dwight Howard famously wanted to go to the L.A. Lakers so he could branch into movies and entertainment. One less-than-thrilling season later, he found himself in Houston far away from the bright lights. It’s tough to be truly great at one thing, much less two. Look at today’s top tier athletes and compare their level of focus for their primary sport and what else they could be doing. There’s a big difference between building a brand vs. being a champion, and doing both extremely well.
If Rousey truly wants to be known as an all-time great fighter, she’s got to focus on doing just that and reclaim all that was lost in Australia. UFC legend Georges St. Pierre provided the blueprint as he won 12 straight over six years with nine title defenses to close out his career (we think) after being embarrassed in a TKO loss to Matt Serra in 2007. But GSP didn’t have machinations at being a pop culture icon as he was doing it. He simply wanted to win fights, and to be the best. Does Rousey still want that?
Especially in Hollywood, there’s nothing better than a comeback story. Rousey can literally write her’s in the blood of her opponents, but only if she truly is motivated to pick up the pen.
