Filthy Four Daily with Bryan Alvarez and Filthy Tom Lawlor returns today with tons of thoughts on the Slammy Awards categories, Tom’s own Filthy Awards which will open up voting next week, UFC from this past weekend, weight-cutting, the Filthy Tom Mailbag, and tons more! A fun show as always so check it out~!
Wrestling Observer Live with Bryan Alvarez and Mike Sempervive returns today with your weekend wrap-up, a look at all the shows from ROH to UFC, a bunch of news, phone calls and text messages and more! A fun show as always so check it out~!
The fast national ratings for Saturday’s UFC on FOX were disappointing as the show did a 0.9 in the key 18-49 demo and 2.28 million viewers.
Keep in mind that this number covers what the FOX affiliates did between 8-10 p.m. Eastern, 7-9 p.m. Central, 6-8 p.m. Mountain and 8-10 p.m. Pacific time. That means it doesn’t include the main event, which started at about 10 p.m. and figures in West Coast programming that wasn’t the UFC which aired from 5-7 p.m. Pacific.
With the short main event, the growth from these numbers is unlikely to be as much as in most past FOX shows.
The number was weak for a football season number for a UFC show, and more along the lines of a summer show. Also, UFC usually wins the 18-49 demo with the networks and here, it finished third as both ABC and CBS are listed as doing 1.1 for prelim numbers with ABC running the Democratic Debate (6.71 million viewers) and CBS running an NCIS repeat (5.15 million), a Criminal Minds repeat (5.20 million) and a 48 Hours repeat (5.80 million). FOX only beat NBC, which aired The Wiz repeat that did a 0.4 in the demo and 1.59 million viewers.
The UFC also had to compete with an NFL game (Cowboys vs. Jets) on NFL Network, as well as people going to the movies to see the new Star Wars movie which has been crushing all-time box office numbers since it came out Thursday night.
Actual numbers will be released on Monday or Tuesday.
Wrestling Observer Radio with Bryan Alvarez and Dave Meltzer returns today to talk all the news in wrestling and MMA including news on Maria and Mike Bennett being written off ROH TV, Brock Lesnar’s return on Saturday night in a US Title match, UFC on FOX with some big upsets, more on the weigh-cutting summit, tons of questions and more! A fun show as always so check it out~!
Welcome to F4WOnline.com’s live coverage of UFC On FOX 17: Dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 2 from the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. The UFC’s final event of 2015 airs on FOX with UFC Lightweight Champion Rafael Dos Anjos making his first title defense against top contender Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone, winner of eight straight fights. They fought once before in 2013, a bout won by Dos Anjos. In the co-main event, it will be a long-awaited heavyweight bout as former UFC Heavyweight Champion Junior Dos Santos takes on Alistair Overeem. Follow along with our live coverage beginning at 3:30 PM eastern time with preliminary action.
We’re looking for your thoughts on these three shows this weekend, with a thumbs up, thumbs down or thumbs in the middle along with a best and worst match to Dave Meltzer
NXT on Wednesday
ROH from last night
UFC tonight
UFC On FOX 17 Weigh-In Results
UFC On FOX 17 5 Storylines To Watch
UFC On FOX 17 DFS Playbook
UFC On FOX 17 Observer Picks & Preview
Coverage provided by Dave Meltzer
PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC FIGHT PASS- 3:30 PM ET/12:30 PM PT)
HEAVYWEIGHTS- FRANCIS NGANNOU (5-1, 0-0 UFC) VS. LUIZ HENRIQUE (8-1, 0-0 UFC)
First round: Ngannou has an 83 inch reach. Low kick by Ngannou and Henrique, a Brazilian wrestling champion, got the takedown. Henrique keeping busy from the top. The ref ordered a standup even though he was busy. Henrique going for a takedown but Ngannou defending. Trading punches and Ngannou landing and got a nice punch. Close round. Henrique got the takedown and top control but Ngannou had the best punch late. Ngannou 10-9.
Second round: Ngannou landing punches. Knee by Ngannou. Henrique moving in trying for a takedown. Crowd booing as they are in a clinch. The ref separated them. Henrique moved him into the cage. Nganou landing punches. He dropped him with a hard left uppercut in a flurry and it’s over.
WELTERWEIGHTS- HAYDER HASSAN (6-2, 0-1 UFC) VS. VICENTE LUQUE (7-5-1, 0-1 UFC)
First round: This a rematch of a fight Hassan won on TUF. Both throwing and missing. Luque landed a left. Luque landed a big right, Hassan shot in for a takedown and Luque immediately grabbed his neck, working for an Anaconda choke and Hassan passed out. Hassan had no idea what happened.
WELTERWEIGHTS- KAMARU USMAN (6-1, 1-0 UFC) VS. LEON EDWARDS (10-2, 2-1 UFC)
First round: Usman working for a takedown but doesn’t have it Edwards landed a head kick Edwards with more punches. Usman again working for a takedown and got it. Edwards is working for a triangle. Usman landing punches from the top now Edwards back up. Close round. Usman 10-9.
Second round: Usman with a body kick. Nice left by Umasman. Usman working for a takedown and got him down. Usman working the body from the top. Edwards go back up. Edwards trying for a takedown but can’t get it. The ref separated them. Trading punches. Nice right by Usman. Edwards kneed him low. Usman with a takedown. Usman 20-18.
Third round: Usman with another takedown. Edwards back up. Edwards went for a guillotine but Usman took him down into side control Usman landing a lot of punches from back postion now. Lots of knees to the butt by Usman. Usman dominated the round, should win 30-27, could be 30-26 or 29-28 or 29-27.
Scores: 29-28, 30-27 and 29-28 for Usman.
PRELIMINARY CARD (FOX SPORTS 1- 5 PM ET/2 PM PT)
FEATHERWEIGHTS- COLE MILLER (21-9) VS. JIM ALERS (13-2)
First round: Both guys trading punches and kicks from distance early. Miller with a huge reach advantage. Alers landing slightly more through 2:00. Miller with a nice punch combo at 2:15. Nice punch exchange at 3:15. Miller with a nice punch combo at 4:00. Alers answers back with a combo at 4:15. 10-9 Miller but really close.
Second Round: Alers staggers Miller with an early punch and also landing leg kicks. Alers with some damage around his right eye from the first round. Nice combo at 1:00. Total strikes are 29-26 Alers. Miller hit with an eye poke. The poke was really bad and Miller can’t open his eye so the fight is called off. No Contest.
NIK LENTZ VS. DANNY CASTILLO, LIGHTWEIGHTS
First round: Castillo tried for a takedown. Nice right by Castillo and left hook by Lenz. Lentz with an awesome looking hip toss into side control. Lentz going for a guillotine. Castillo out and on top. Lentz again going for a guillotine. Castillo with a head and arm choke attempt. Nice punches by Lentz and knee from a Thai plumb. Big right by Lentz. Knee and punches by Casillo. Great round. Right by Castillo. Lentz 10-9.
Second round: Head kick and punch by Castillo. Right by Lentz. Good body kick by Lentz. Punches moving in by Lentz. Lentz with punches and a body kick plus a takedown. Knee by Lentz but Castillo avoided it. Lentz with a body kick. Castillo looks tired. Castillo failed on a takedown. Lentz landing knees. Lentz tried for a guillotine but lost it as Castillo got on top in side control. Lentz gained guard and Lentz got back up. Left by Lentz. Castillo landing punches. Lentz 20-18.
Third round: Lentz with a hip toss but Castilo back up. Right by Lentz. Lentz with punches and a knee. Castillo took him down. Knee by Castillo. Castillo poked his eye. Castillo with a kick to the jaw. Takedown by Castillo. Lentz back up. Lentz wanted a takedown but Castillo on top. Lentz moving.in. Body kick by Lentz. Close round but I’ve got Lentz 30-27, could be 29-28.
Scores: 29-28 Castillo, 29-28 Lentz 30-27 Lentz
Lentz said he’s had a lot of medical problems stemming from cutting to 145 in the past. He also said he’s had trouble and even had problems making 155, said he hyperextended his knee in the fight.
MIDDLEWEIGHTS- JOSH SAMMAN (12-2, 3-0 UFC) VS. TAMDAN MCCRORY (13-3, 3-3 UFC)
First round: McCrory pressing him against the fence. Samann took him down. McCrory working for a triangle. NowMcCrory is working for an ambar. Now he’s back to attempting a triangle. McCrory scrambled to the top. Escape and reverse by Samann. McCrory reversed and got his back working for a choke. McCrory working for an armbar now. Samann out and on top. Samann landing some punches from back position. Very close round. McCrory 10-9.
Second round: Samann is working for a takedown. He powered McCrory down. McCrory used a headlock to reverse to the top, and got Samann’s back and is working for a choke. McCrory keeping back control. McCrory landing punches and elbows. McCrory with hard elbows. McCrory keeping hin down. McCrory 20-18.
Third round: McCrory with a head kick. Samann back with McCrory with a head kick and Samann back with a head kick. McCroty took him down, landing punches and now working for a choke. McCrory staying on top. McCrory remaining on top and landing punches. McCrory working for an uma plata. Now McCrory is working for a triangle. McCrory holding the triangle and throwing elbows. Samann finally tapped.
WOMEN’S BANTAMWEIGHTS- (#5) SARAH KAUFMAN (17-3 1 NC, 1-1 1 NC UFC) VS. VALENTINA SHEVCHENKO (9-1, 0-0 UFC)
First round: Shevchenko landed several shots. Now they’re in a clinch. Takedown by Shevchenko. Kaufman back to her feet. Kaufman went for a takedown and Shevchenko blocked it and ended up on top in the mount. Kaufman regained guard. Kaufman back up. Kaufamn went for a heel hook. Shevchenko escaped and has Kaufman’s back. Elbow from close range by Shevchenko. 10-9 Shevchenko.
Second round: Spin kick b Shevchenko. Knee by Shevchenko. Shevchenko with an elbow. Hip toss by Shevchenko. Kaufman throwing elbows off her back. Kaufman back up and they’re in a clinch. Both trying to throw the other. Shevchenko 20-18.
Third round: Shevchenko with another takedown. Kaufman back up. Knee by Kaufman. Another bodylock takedown by Shevchenko. Kaufman with a takedown into side control. Kaufman throwing elbows to the head. Kaufman landing elbows. Now she’s throwing elbows to the body. Kaufman throwing elbows to the body. Kaufman has the mount and pounding on her. Kaufman went for an armbar in the last seconds but Shevchenko slipped out. Kaufman’s round but Shevchenko should win 29-28.
Scores: 29-28 Kaufman 29-28 Shevchenko 29-28 Shevchenko. The judge scoring for Kaufman, man, I don’t know about him.
MIDDLEWEIGHTS- (#12) C.B. DOLLAWAY (15-7, 9-7 UFC) VS. NATE MARQUARDT (33-15-2, 11-8 UFC)
First round: Body kick by Dollaway and low kick by Dollaway. Dolloway missed a punch and Marquardt with a hard body kick. Low kick by Marquardt. Dollaway rocked him with punches. Low kick by Marquardt. Knee by Marquardt. Head kick by Dolloaway. Dollaway 10-9.
Second round: Trading punches and Marquardt knocked him out on a counter right. It was a right to the jaw.
FEATHERWEIGHTS- (#7) CHARLES OLIVEIRA (20-5 1 NC, 8-5 1 NC UFC) VS. (#9 LW) MYLES JURY (15-1, 6-1 UFC)
First round: Oliveira missed weight by 4.5 pounds. Oliveira took him down. Jury went for an armbar and Oliveira got his back. Olivera now with a guillotine and he tapped out Great ground work by Oliveira.
MAIN CARD (FOX- 8 PM ET/5 PM PT)
WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHTS- (#7) RANDA MARKOS (5-2, 1-1 UFC) VS. KAROLINA KOWALKIEWICZ (7-0, 0-0 UFC)
First round: Both out swinging. Karolina landed a few punches. Markos with a right. Crowd going crazy all night with Whoos. Flair is not in the building. Karolina cracked her with a right. Marko s with a right. Markos pushed her into the cage. Karolina with punches . Markos with a right. Right by Markos. Markos with low kicks and punches. She landed a lot of shots but Karolina nailed her with a right. Close round. Karolina 10-9.
Second round: Karolina thowing low kicks now. Nice right by Karolina. Left and right by Karolina. Low kicks by Karolina. Markos with a takedown. Markos in piggy back position. Markos is also holding a body triangle. Markos stayed behind her the entire round. Markos so 19-19.
Third round: Markos landed rights. Markos with a takedown but Karolina rolled through and on top. She’s in full mount. Punches and elbows by Karolina. Knees to the body by Karolina. Markos back up. Time running out. Karolina’s round so she should win 29-28.
Scores: 29-28, 29-28 and 30-27 Karolina.
They just announced Sage Northcutt vs. Andrew Holbook to the main card on the 1/30 FOX card from Newark.
LIGHTWEIGHTS- (#6) MICHAEL JOHNSON (16-9, 8-5 UFC) VS. (#15) NATE DIAZ (17-10, 12-8 UFC)
First round: Johnson landing low kicks. Johnson continues to land low kicks. Left by Diaz. Diaz starting to land. Diaz starring to land and laughing at him. Diaz chants. Hard body kick by Johnson. Johnson missing punches short. Competitive fight. Close round 10-9 Diaz.
Second round: Johnson with body kicks. Diaz switching stance. Diaz landing jabs. Diaz landing more. Diaz staring to land regularly. Left by Diaz.. Johnson with a left. Johnson with a right and Diaz with a left. Body kick by Johnson. Johnson big left. Diaz chants. Another left by Johnson. Diaz with lefts. Great round. Johnson with a right. Diaz landed. Diaz landing and making fun of him and landed a left and another left. Johnson back with a right. Left by Diaz. Another left by Diaz. Johnson with a left. Another left and another by Johnson. Body kick by Johnson. Diaz with two lefts. Diaz continues to land. High kick by Diaz. Diaz continues to land now. Diaz’s round 20-18.
Third round: Johnson with a body kick. Both throwing. Nice left by Johnson. Diaz with a left. Head kick by Diaz. Diaz landing punches. Knees by Diaz. Diaz landing more punches. Jabs and a left by Diaz. Johnson back landing and Diaz back. Johnson landing all kinds of punches. Johnson with a right. Johnson took him down, which made no sense. Diaz 30-27.
Scores: All three had it 29-28 for Diaz.
So Nate Diaz did an interview where it was all bleeped out but he wanted Conor McGregor saying he already punked out Cerrone and Dos Anjos at the press conference.
HEAVYWEIGHTS- (#2) JUNIOR DOS SANTOS (17-3, 11-2 UFC) VS. (#9) ALISTAIR OVEREEM (39-14 1 NC, 4-3 UFC)
First round: Brazilians chanting “You’re gonna die” at Overeem. Nobody touched for nearly two minutes. Body kick by Overeem. High kick by Dos Santos blocked. Low kick by Overem. Overeem short on a left. Knee to the body by Overeem. Left by Overeem. Left by Overeem. Low kick by Overeem. Crowd booing. Dos Santos bleeding from the nose. Overeem with a body kick. Dos Santos missed a spin kick. Overeem 10-9.
Second round: Body kick by Junior Body kick by Overeem. Another body kick by Overeem. Dos Santos missed a spin kick. This fight sucks by the way. Knee by Dos Santos First thing he’s done the whole fight. Low kick by Dos Santos. Another low kick by Overeem. Overeem with a kick to the body. Low kick by Overeem. Nice left by Overeem. Dos Santos bleeding from the right eye. Dos Santos finally started punching late in the round. Overeem dropped him with a left and finished him with a punch on the ground. The left hook knocked Dos Santos flying. Dos Santos was really mad at the stoppage. 4:43
UFC LIGHTWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP- (C) RAFAEL DOS ANJOS (24-7, 13-5 UFC) VS. (#2) DONALD CERRONE (28-6 1 NC, 15-3 UFC)
First round: Loud USA chant. Dos Anjos landed early. Low kick by Cerrone. Knee by Dos Anjos and now he’s taking him apart, a kick to the body and Dos Anjos throwing a ton of punches and Cerrone is in a lot of trouble. He’s taking a ton of punches. Cerrone survived. Dos Anjos had his back and kept throwing punches until Herb Dean stopped it. 1:06
Dos Anjos said he was happy. Dos Anjos said he’d face McGregor in Brazil or in Ireland.
A lightweight bout between rising prospect Sage Northcutt (7-0, 2-0 UFC) and fellow undefeated fighter Andrew Holbrook (11-0, 1-0 UFC) has been added to the next UFC on FOX event, which takes place next month in Newark, New Jersey. Ariel Helwani reported the bout on tonight’s UFC On FOX 17 broadcast. It will be on the main card of the event.
It is a quick turnaround for Northcutt, who is coming off a second-round submission win over Cody Pfister at last week’s UFC Fight Night 80 event in Las Vegas. It will be his third UFC bout in just under four months after he scored a quick first-round TKO win over Francisco Trevino in his UFC debut at UFC 192 in October. It will be his first fight televised on the FOX network as the UFC continues the big push of the rising 19-year-old prospect out of Katy, Texas.
Holbrook will fight in the UFC for the second time after scoring a split decision win over Ramsey Nijem at UFC On FOX 16 in July. It was the first time Holbrook had gone the distance in a fight as his prior ten wins all came by stoppage, with nine wins in the first round. While still young in his career, he represents another small step up in competition for Northcutt.
UFC On FOX 18 takes place on January 30 from the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. It will be headlined by a five-round light heavyweight bout as Anthony Johnson takes on Ryan Bader.
32 events later (that we picked from anyway), we’re here at the finish line. We’ve seen quite a bit this year with the rise of superstars, the falls of others, a lot of title changes, and a lot of flotsam and jetsam along the way.
Thank you for following along with the 2015 picks, and I’m happy to say we’ll be back for another year…but with a different captain helming the ship. Paul Fontaine will be penning these starting in 2016 and will be joining the picks group along with fellow staff writer Ryan Frederick. Everyone, including yours truly, will be back with the exception of Sherdog’s Jack Encarnacao who is taking his victory lap tonight and will leave a champion.
For the final time in 2015, I present your picks panel:
– Jack Encarnacao (111-46 | .707): Sherdog Rewind host, The Lapsed Fan podcast co-chair
– Steve Juon (104-53 | .662): AngryMarks founder, MMA Mania writer
– Mike Sempervive (102-55 | .650): Wrestling Observer Live & Big Audio Nightmare co-host
– David Bixenspan (102-55 | .650): Figure Four Weekly writer, Observer Daily Update writer, podcast host
– John Pollock (101-56 | .643): Fight Network personality, Live Audio Wrestling co-host, The MMA Report host
– Dave Meltzer (98-59 | .624): Wrestling Observer founder & writer
– Front Row Brian (97-60 | .618): MMA newsbreaker, Twitter personality, podcast host
– Mike Sawyer (94-63 | .599): Tough Talk MMA, 2014 picks panel champion
– Josh Nason (90-67 | .573): JNPO host, Wrestling Observer digital media and content guy, WON Twitter guy
*****
> UFC Lightweight Champion Rafael dos Anjos (24-7) vs. Cowboy Cerrone (28-6-0-1) II
It feels like it’s been two years since we saw RDA shock the MMA world in dispatching Anthony Pettis back in March to win the title. Since 2012, RDA is 9-1 with wins over Cerrone, Nate Diaz, Pettis, Benson Henderson, and a slew of lower-tier lightweights. His sole loss in that stretch? To oft-injured Khabib Nurmagomedov. The winner of four straight has a lot of MMA gossip bees buzzing about how different his body looked, but at weigh-ins, there wasn’t a discernable difference. Underappreciated? Yes. Overlooked? Yes. A win tonight would help that a lot.
Cerrone’s UFC career began back in 2011 following the WEC merger, and he’s been nothing if not active and a winner in that time. In 18 trips to the Octagon, he’s won 15 times and is on an eight-fight win streak. The heads of Edson Barboza, Jim Miller, Eddie Alvarez, Myles Jury, and Benson Henderson were mounted on his trophy wall during that time and a possible tilt with featherweight champion and game-changer Conor McGregor awaits him if he can pull out a win. There’s a lot riding on tonight.
RDA (favorite): Meltzer, Juon, Bix, Encarnacao, Sawyer
Cerrone: Nason, Sempervive, Pollock, FRB
> Junior dos Santos (17-3) vs. Alistair Overeem (39-14-0-1)
Heavyweights
I feel like this fight has been talked about for a solid year and to no surprise, it’s been a year since we last saw JDS winning a brutal bout with Stipe Miocic on Fox. The big question here is whether the beatings JDS has taken in the past few years have caught up with him to the point where he wilts in a fight he should win. He’s 11-2 in a long UFC career with two losses coming to a guy named Cain.
The Reem is a free agent after this fight, so it’s in his best interest to put on a great show. He’s only fought once this year, a March decision win over Roy Nelson that I remember nothing about. He’s won two straight and has had an odd UFC career the past few years, a mix of no-doubt KOs that had him looking up at the lights and a few decision wins that kept him alive. What’s the value of a 35-year-old heavyweight free agent? His performance tonight should help give us an answer.
JDS (favorite): Nason, Sempervive, Meltzer, Juon, Bix, Pollock, Encarnacao, Sawyer
Overeem: FRB
> Michael Johnson (16-9) vs. Nate Diaz (17-10)
Lightweights
Holy Christmas, I can’t wait to see this. The two had a pull-apart earlier this week and are intense enough where you know they’re not going to mess around in there. Johnson was steamrolling through a slew of veterans until rising prospect Beneil Dariush stopped that cold in August with a split decision win. This is a big spot for him and one that UFC has to expect him to win. He’s just got to do it.
It’s been a solid year since we last saw Diaz, a loser in three of his last four. In those three, those defeats have come at the hands of Benson Henderson, Josh Thomson, and the current lightweight champion with his only win coming over a guy in Gray Maynard who should be retired. He’s an underdog here and for a good reason. He’s in fantastic shape, but with the Diaz brothers, there’s always more of a question of what’s happening between the ears.
Johnson (favorite): Nason, Sempervive, Meltzer, Juon, Bix, Pollock, FRB, Encarnacao, Sawyer
> Randa Markos (5-2) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (7-0)
Strawweights
This is the first fight on big Fox for a reason, friends. The 30-year-old Markos is 1-1 in the UFC and is coming off an April decision win over Aisling Daly. However, the Polish Double-K is the real reason to pay attention here. The undefeated 30-year-old is making her UFC debut just a few years into her pro career. To no surprise, she’s on a similar career track to countrywoman Joanna Jedrzejczyk and with two or three impressive wins, you could see an all-Polish title fight happening in that country in late-2016 or early-2017.
Markos (favorite): Juon, Bix, Pollock, FRB
Double-K: Nason, Sempervive, Meltzer, Encarnacao, Sawyer
> Charles Oliveira (20-5-0-1) vs. Myles Jury (15-1)
Featherweights
The 26-year-old Oliveira missed weight…again. It’s the third time he’s failed to hit 145 in eight efforts. While it might not seem like a big deal, it is. Oliveira saw a four-fight win streak (three finishes) snapped in August due to a ruptured esophagus against Max Holloway, a very strange finish to one of the most anticipated featherweight fights of the year. He’s got a chance here to get back in the conversation and to perhaps get a Holloway rematch with a big win.
The 27-year-old Jury makes his featherweight debut in his first fight since getting his first loss in January to Donald Cerrone. Before that, he had won all six of his battles in the Octagon including Michael Johnson, Diego Sanchez, and Takanori Gomi. He can be a force at 145 if his body adapts appropriately and if his skills continue to evolve. I see lots of good things ahead for Jury if both of those come together.
Jury (slight favorite): Nason, Sempervive, Juon, Pollock, Encarnacao, Sawyer
Oliveira: Meltzer, Bix, FRB
Some evening news notes:
*We don’t have an update on Matt Taven past the injury to his right knee was legit. Taven came off the middle rope to do a spike piledriver on Ray Rowe before the tag team title match on tonight’s ROH show started. Taven started limping badly. They only did a three minute match with War Machine winning the titles. Bennett & Taven are no longer under contract to ROH and it is possible this was their last match with the promotion.
*Charles Oliveira failed to make weight and was fined 20 percent of his purse for his fight with Myles Jury. He looked confused as to why he didn’t make weight even though he was 4.5 pounds over.
*Danny Castillo, who was two pounds over, came back about 20 minutes later and made weight.
*C.B. Dollaway somehow lost 1.5 pounds just by taking off his underwear and he also made weight.
*Yoshitatsu was announced as part of the English language broadcast team for the 1/4 Tokyo Dome show. He will be working with Kevin Kelly and Matt Striker filling in the holes needed to translate Japanese. He’s very excited for getting this shot. This was a decision made some time back but New Japan just announced it tonight.
*Every NXT non-Florida house show in the month of January is sold out except for the 1/15 show in Green Bay, and that has a strong advance.
*There are tickets remaining for the 4/1 NXT show in Dallas before WrestleMania which is the next Takeover special. They’ll be available to the public at 10 a.m. Central time tomorrow. They’ll be gone very quickly so if you have interest in tickets I suggest logging in right away.
The UFC ends 2015 with an event in Orlando, Florida on FOX, headlined by a UFC Lightweight Championship bout between champion Rafael Dos Anjos and challenger Donald Cerrone. It is one last time to make some money playing daily fantasy for MMA in 2015, and below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid as well as our own line-ups for Saturday’s event.
STUDS
C.B. Dollaway ($10,800)
C.B. Dollaway is looking to end a two-fight losing skid when he takes on Nate Marquardt. Marquardt is on quite the skid himself, losing five of his last six fights. Marquardt’s chin has also seemingly seen better days, and he has trouble taking a punch these days. Dollaway has never been known as a knockout artist, but he has some power. Dollaway is still a top-ten caliber talent while Marquardt’s days challenging for titles are long gone. Dollaway should get a win and has a very good chance for a finish.
Kamaru Usman ($10,200)
Kamaru Usman won season 21 of “TUF” for the Blackzilians camp and looked impressive in doing so. He has been very impressive in his short MMA career as well, with all six of his career wins coming by stoppage. He has good power in his hands and some solid submission skills, and he trains with one of the top camps in the sport. He has a tough challenge in Leon Edwards ahead of him, but I like Usman to continue his impressive career start.
VALUE PLAYS
Valentina Shevchenko ($8,800)
Valentina Shevchenko is making her UFC debut on short notice against a tough challenge in Sarah Kaufman, but she has the skills to score a big upset. Shevchenko is better on the feet than Kaufman and has a ton of kickboxing experience, with a 60-2 record to go with her 9-1 MMA record. The biggest key for her is to keep the fight upright, but she has good takedown defense. She has the biggest shot to score an upset, and at her salary, that makes her a good play to where you can spend up on your line-up.
Nate Diaz ($8,300)
Nate Diaz has the lowest salary of all of the fighters on the card, and with someone of his popularity and skills, that almost seems like an insult. He does have a tough opponent in Michael Johnson, but Johnson’s struggles in his MMA career have been against fighters like Diaz. Diaz is a volume striker with dangerous submissions, and he can suck opponents into his game. He does look in excellent condition and has something to prove. At his salary, he definitely can upset Johnson, and is worth a look for your line-up.
AVOID
Nik Lentz ($9,700)
Nik Lentz is moving back up to lightweight on Saturday for a bout with Danny Castillo, but he is still small for the division. He is a good wrestler, but he isn’t overly impressive with all of his aspects. He does enough to score wins, but that may not be enough against Castillo, who definitely has his back against the wall. Lentz just isn’t enough of a difference maker to make me wanna use him, so I suggest avoiding him.
Nate Marquardt ($8,600)
His opponent, C.B. Dollaway, is listed above as a stud, and Marquardt is the one fighter I would avoid on the card whether I was making just one line-up or a hundred. I don’t like his chances against Dollaway, and I think he gets finished. Even if the fight goes the distance, Marquardt just hasn’t shown enough in recent years to make you think he has what it takes to score a lot of fantasy points. It just doesn’t seem like it will be his night.
OUR LINE-UPS
RYAN FREDERICK: Junior Dos Santos ($10,900), C.B. Dollaway ($10,800), Josh Samman ($10,300), Donald Cerrone ($8,900), Nate Diaz ($8,300)
I like Junior Dos Santos to score a knockout win over Alistair Overeem. Dos Santos has taken some beatings but perhaps the time off has freshened him up. He looks good right now and Overeem seems to have lost something coming in for various reasons. Dos Santos still has big power. I like Dollaway to finish Nate Marquardt. I like Josh Samman at his salary. He has three UFC wins, all by finish, and is very good. He has a tough fight against Tamdan McCrory, but is a finishable fight. I like Nate Diaz to score an upset over Michael Johnson, and to win by submission. Finally, I’m going with Donald Cerrone. I think he wins, and he wins by decision. With the thinking it will go five rounds, that is two extra rounds to score more points, and a decision win scores the same whether it goes three or five rounds. The two extra rounds benefits you in scoring more points, and I always try to take a fighter in a five-round fight.
PAUL FONATINE: Junior Dos Santos ($10,900), Josh Samman ($10,300), Kamaru Usman ($10,200), Cole Miller ($9,600), Donald Cerrone ($8,900)
Dos Santos is at least a level above Overeem, maybe 2. After a five round war with the very tough Stipe Miocic, this will be like a walk in the park for the former champ. One good shot and Overeem should go down, likely very early in the first. Samman has been a steamroller since losing on TUF to Kelvin Gastelum. McCrory is a nice story but he’s not going to be enough to stop Samman. Usman won the final match in the TUF 21 show to win the competition for his team. That was his fifth straight stoppage win and he should make it 6 over the overmatched Edwards. It seems like destiny that Donald Cerrone will win the lightweight title and then go on to face Conor McGregor in his first title defense. I see this going a lot like the Aldo/McGregor fight actually as the PED crackdown has had a noticeable effect on the physique of the current champion. I’m going with the veteran Cole Miller for my last pick. He’s usually good for a stoppage win and his opponent Alers was lucky not to have lost both of his UFC fights to date, taking a split decision in the opener before losing his second fight earlier this year.
PEACH MACHINE: Junior Dos Santos ($10,900), Myles Jury ($10,000), Danny Castillo ($9,700), Karolina Kowalkiewicz ($9,000), Donald Cerrone ($8,900)
I love Cerrone and I think RDA got lucky against Pettis. Cerrone is gonna knock him out eventually. It may take four and a half rounds but that head kick is coming. JDS is still a monster and Overeem is done. This is an easy pick for a KO. Myles Jury hasn’t fought in a year and finds himself against a formidable opponent, but Jury has only lost once and that was to Cerrone. More importantly, Oliveira is coming off a freak injury loss. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him come out a little gun shy. I’m taking Castillo because Nik Lentz sucks and I hate how he spells his name. Plus, Castillo has lost three in a row and will be motivated to win. Kowalkiewicz is undefeated an I don’t think Markos is much of a fighter. As always, you’d probably be better just picking the opposite of me. In a side note, I hope Dolloway and Marquardt both get cut. I can’t believe we’re still watching these two clowns.
As you can see, we are all big fans of Junior Dos Santos and Donald Cerrone scoring wins on Saturday. Good luck to all of those playing!
Welcome to WrestlingObserver.com’s live coverage of the UFC On FOX 17: Dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 2 weigh-ins from the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. The fighters will hit the scale at 4 PM eastern time. The card airs on Saturday with the main card on FOX at 8 PM eastern time. Preliminary card action kicks off at 3:30 PM eastern time on UFC Fight Pass before heading over to FOX Sports 1 at 5 PM eastern time with additional preliminary bouts. This is the second time the Octagon has appeared in Orlando and it marks the 41st and final UFC event of 2015.
The event is headlined by UFC Lightweight Champion Rafael Dos Anjos making his first title defense against challenger Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone, who enters his first UFC title fight riding an eight-fight win streak. They have met once before, at UFC Fight Night 27 in August 2013, a bout won by Dos Anjos. The co-main event will be a heavyweight battle years in the making as former UFC Heavyweight Champion Junior Dos Santos takes on Alistair Overeem. The card also features the return of Nate Diaz after a year out of action as he takes on Michael Johnson.
MAIN CARD (FOX- 8 PM ET/5 PM PT):
Rafael Dos Anjos (154.5) vs. Donald Cerrone (154.5) – UFC Lightweight Championship
Junior Dos Santos (239) vs. Alistair Overeem (243)
Michael Johnson (155.5) vs. Nate Diaz (156)
Randa Markos (116) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (114.5)
PRELIMINARY CARD (FOX SPORTS 1- 5 PM ET/2 PM PT):
Charles Oliveira (150.5) vs. Myles Jury (146)
C.B. Dollaway (185.5) vs. Nate Marquardt (186)
Sarah Kaufman (136) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (134)
Josh Samman (186) vs. Tamdan McCrory (185)
Nik Lentz (156) vs. Danny Castillo (156)
Cole Miller (146) vs. Jim Alers (145)
PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC FIGHT PASS- 3:30 PM ET/12:30 PM PT):
Kamaru Usman (171) vs. Leon Edwards (171)
Hayder Hassan (170) vs. Vicente Luque (171)
Francis Ngannou (254) vs. Luiz Henrique (248)
*Danny Castillo missed the lightweight limit by two pounds. He later came back and made weight at 156 pounds.
*C.B. Dollaway missed on his initial attempt but made weight after the towel was brought in.
*Charles Oliveira missed weight badly, once again. He weighed in 4.5 pounds over the featherweight limit.
*Many fighters looked confused at the scale.