The biggest UFC show thus far in the year 2016 comes our way on Saturday night with UFC 196 taking place in Las Vegas, Nevada. Headlining the event is the biggest star in the sport, UFC Featherweight Champion Conor McGregor, as he moves up two weight classes to take on Nate Diaz in a short-notice situation. Also on the card is UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion Holly Holm defending her championship for the first time against Miesha Tate. Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when making your daily fantasy line-ups for Saturday night’s event.
STUDS
Conor McGregor ($11,000)
Conor McGregor is the biggest star in the sport of MMA right now and he is the top play this weekend in fantasy MMA. He has won 15 straight fights, and all but one of his seven wins inside the Octagon have come by finish. He won’t have the distraction of a big weight cut this week, and he is fighting a short-notice replacement. Nate Diaz is good, but he hasn’t had a camp. McGregor has shown amazing skills, and due to his mouth and how he presents himself, there are a lot of cases where fans just don’t wanna give him the credit he deserves. This fight is a style fight that is great for him as Diaz is a slow volume striker. McGregor is light on his feet, has great footwork, is an excellent counterpuncher, and is a power striker. He says he is finishing Diaz inside the first round, and it is hard to argue against him with his track record. He is the top play this week. Use him in your line-ups.
Brandon Thatch ($10,900)
Brandon Thatch has struggled recently, dropping his last two fights. However, those losses came to Benson Henderson and Gunnar Nelson, who are top fighters. Before that, Thatch had won eleven of his twelve professional fights, and was a rising prospect. Now, he fights with his potential UFC future on the line. He gets a step back in fighting Siyar Bahadurzada, who is 1-2 inside the Octagon and hasn’t fought since December 2013. Bahadurzada is a tough opponent, but he hasn’t shown much that can convince me he will be a tough challenge for Thatch, and that is without factoring in the long layoff. Thatch has scored all of his wins by stoppage, and all in the first round. He is a big favorite and has a high salary, but he is an excellent play on Saturday night.
VALUE PLAYS
Gian Villante ($9,200)
Gian Villante is looking to score his second straight win after a brutal knockout win over Anthony Perosh in November. He definitely goes all out in his fights and the knockout is always prevelant in his bouts, whether he is on the winning or losing end. Villante has struggled to get a solid run going since coming over to the UFC, but he has a favorable bout in his hands on Saturday night. He is taking on Ilir Latifi, who is a knockout artist himself. However, Latifi struggles with heavy hitters, which is what Villante is. Latifi also fought just six weeks ago, so this is a quick turnaround even though he won in just 28 seconds. Villante is worth a look at his salary and a knockout win is always in the cards when he steps inside the Octagon.
Tom Lawlor ($8,800)
Tom Lawlor fights for the second time since making the move back up to 205 pounds when he takes on Corey Anderson, and it is a real mystery why he is such a big underdog, which makes his salary an interesting one for this card. Lawlor has won three of his last four fights, with the three wins coming by stoppage, and the loss to Francis Carmont was a fight that should have gone in his favor. Anderson has scored some good wins in the UFC, but hasn’t had a finish in his last three wins, and Lawlor is the best fighter he has fought so far in the UFC. Lawlor has a strong wrestling game, good submissions and showed off his underrated knockout power in his finish of Gian Villante in his last fight. Best of all, he is cheap, and he is the best bet for an underdog win on Saturday. He has extremely solid value.
FIGHTERS TO AVOID
Valentina Shevchenko ($9,500)
Valentina Shevchenko had an impressive UFC debut, defeating Sarah Kaufman by split decision on very short notice. She is 12-1 in her MMA career and had a 56-2 record in her kickboxing career. However, she gets a huge step up in competition when she takes on Amanda Nunes on Saturday night. It may be too early in her UFC career for Shevchenko to be taking on a top-five opponent, and Nunes has shown to be a finisher. All of her wins have come by finish, but she has been finished in three of her four losses. Shevchenko is a live underdog, but it is going to be a tough match-up for her. I don’t think she wins, which makes her a fighter to avoid on Saturday night.
Darren Elkins ($9,300)
Darren Elkins has been rotating wins-and-losses in his last six UFC bouts, a far cry from when he was on the brink of title contention having a five-fight win streak. History says he is set for a loss on Saturday night when he takes on Chas Skelly. Skelly himself is a quality fighter, with a 15-1 record in his career. Elkins is also known as a grinding fighter, preferring to take opponents down and smother them. He will have trouble doing that with Skelly, who is a strong wrestler himself. Elkins has also scored just one true stoppage in the UFC, and that was three years ago. His history makes him an easy fighter to avoid and he will have all sorts of trouble getting the win on Saturday.
OUR LINE-UPS
RYAN FREDERICK- Conor McGregor ($11,000), Brandon Thatch ($10,900), Amanda Nunes ($9,900), Gian Villante ($9,200), Tom Lawlor ($8,800)
Everyone I have on my team has been mentioned in some form above. It is hard to bet against proven track records with finishers, and I feel all five of these fighters are going to score big finishes on Saturday. Conor McGregor has been nothing short of amazing in his UFC career, and the fight against Nate Diaz is favorable for him. Brandon Thatch has won all of his professional fights by finish in the first round, and his opponent hasn’t fought in over two years. Amanda Nunes has also won all of her fights by stoppage, and she is on quite a tear inside the Octagon. Gian Villante and Tom Lawlor are big punches with exciting fights, and they fight opponents who have been finished in the past. I see all of them scoring stoppage wins on Saturday night in what should be a fun event.
PAUL FONTAINE- Julian Erosa ($10,500), Erick Silva ($10,300), Ilir Latifi ($10,200), Jim Miller ($10,000), Tom Lawlor ($8,800)
Erick Silva fights are usually quick and violent so the question is whether Silva will be the one to go down or the one to put someone out. I’m betting on the latter. Ilir Latifi is one of the strongest guys in his division outside of Rumble Johnson and I like him to put away Gian Villante early. Julian Erosa looked impressive on the most recent season of the The Ultimate Fighter and even better in his official UFC debut in December. He should continue that here. My lineup wouldn’t be complete without our very own Tom Lawlor who I think is a steal at $8,800. My final pick is Jim Miller. His opponent Diego Sanchez, is tough to put away but will take a lot of shot from the tenacious Miller, earning me a lot of points.
PEACH MACHINE- Conor McGregor ($11,000), Brandon Thatch ($10,900), Gian Villante ($9,200), Tom Lawlor ($8,800), Miesha Tate ($8,600)
McGregor will murder Diaz. We will see the first Octagon death… I don’t understand why everyone is favoring Holm wildly. I expect a long match with a lot of ground work where Tate comes out on top… Villante looked great before getting unexpectedly KO’d by Filthy Tom. I don’t think ol stubby arms Latifi can snatch a win, or a purse (lol), from the hands of big Gian… I like Lawlor. I haven’t been impressed by Anderson. He wins, but Lawlor fights FILTHY!… Thatch is going to rebound from his loss to Gunnar Nelson. He’s on a two fight skid, but I’m predicting his turn around here.
Simply put, Anderson Silva vs. Michael Bisping is the biggest fight the UFC has promoted in Britain since 2008.
In terms of fan anticipation, it may be even bigger than title fights involving BJ Penn or Quinton Jackson as it sees the sport’s greatest ever champion test its greatest British fighter’s record of never having been defeated in his home country. While there may be no gold on the line, the stakes are high. Either man will proceed to further lucrative headlining appearances if they win, while a loss may bring their career to an end.
I consider myself second to nobody in my admiration for Bisping, but it’s hard to argue against the idea that at his best, Silva would have been too good for Britain’s finest. The former middleweight champion is such a nightmare matchup for “The Count” that predicting his route to victory in such a hypothetical fight becomes next to impossible due to the surplus of options.
A prime Silva would have dominated the stand-up game due to having greater knockout power, superior striking technique, and more durability. But it’s not just the stand-game where we the Brazilian would have the edge over the Brit. As seen in his fights against Rashad Evans and Chael Sonnen, Bisping has the defensive wrestling to stop a takedown but he’s poor at evading or escaping the clinch. And while it’s frustrating to be held upright by a former collegiate wrestler that becomes a lethal weakness against a Muay Thai master. It’s very easy seeing a fight between Silva and Bisping end in a similar fashion to the Brazilian’s second fight against Rich Franklin. And should the fight go to the ground, Silva has the superior grappling skills, and would be favoured to secure the submission.
Of course, Silva’s prime was a long time ago and it’s been almost three years since he was dethroned as middleweight champion. That fact has made some people overconfident about Bisping’s chances. The reality is that both men are approaching the end of their careers. Both men are not just older than either Luke Rockhold or Chris Weidman, but have significantly more fights than either man. (Bisping alone has more total fights than Rockhold and Weidman combined.) And both men have had to come back from significant health problems, whether it be Silva’s broken leg or Bisping’s detached retina.
The question is whether Silva can regain something of the spark that was clearly absent in his fight against Nick Diaz. While the Brazilian won a convincing (and of course tainted) victory, it was a lifeless performance from a man who seemed to be going through the motions. That he couldn’t knock out or even significantly hurt an opponent who was giving up so much size raises questions about the remaining potency of his striking.
And yet, I still believe that Anderson Silva will win Saturday given that Bisping has stylistic similarities with Diaz. While Bisping is a more traditional kickboxer, he shares with the American the ability to grind down his opponents through volume striking due to superior conditioning. The key difference is that whereas Diaz is always looking to come forward, Bisping often falls back against opponents with significant striking power. Remember that Bisping let a much diminished Wanderlei Silva escape with a victory due to refusing to engage in the pocket. Providing Silva can intimidate Bisping early on, the fight could quickly descend into a long-distance war of attrition that would play to the more precise and illusive Silva’s strengths.
It’s for that reason that Bisping’s best hope for a victory is that in his time away, Silva has further deteriorated from the diminished fighter we saw at UFC 183. It’s possible, but just as plausible, that Silva took the Diaz fight too soon after his leg surgery and that the past year has given his body and mind chance to fully heal from what he went through.
Should Silva show up in anything approaching good condition, he will likely end not just Bisping’s undefeated home record but his outstanding hopes of finally receiving a UFC title shot.
Will Cooling is a freelance writer who writes on combat sports for Fighting Spirit Magazine, pop culture for Geeky Monkey and politics at It Could Be Said! He’ll be covering UFC Fight Night London for Wrestling Observer live from cageside.
It’s another fight week for the UFC as the Octagon heads over to London, England on Saturday for UFC Fight Night 84, headlined by a five-round middleweight bout as former UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva takes on long-time contender Michael Bisping. It is another chance to earn some money playing fantasy MMA, and below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when making your daily fantasy line-up for Saturday’s event.
STUDS
Tom Breese ($11,400)
Tom Breese has the highest salary of all 26 fighters on the UFC Fight Night 84 card, making him the top play for this event, and for a real good reason. Breese is a perfect 9-0 in his career, with all nine wins coming by stoppage. He has six first-round finishes, and both of his UFC wins have come by TKO in the first round. He is a rising prospect in the welterweight division who comes from a top camp, the Tristar Gym in Montreal, and he has heavy hands and good submissions. He also has an opponent he is expected to run through in Keita Nakamura. Nakamura is riding a five-fight win streak and is coming off his first UFC win in September, but he is just 1-3 inside the Octagon. Nakamura was actually losing his last fight until pulling out a late submission. This is a fight to build up Breese even further, and I fully expect another first-round stoppage win for him. Play him as your top play.
Makwan Amirkhani ($10,200)
Makwan Amirkhani made a big splash in his first year in the UFC in 2015. He fought just twice, but won both fights in the first round, and has spent less than two minutes inside the Octagon over those two fights. His UFC debut was a seven-second knockout win, and he followed that up with a submission win in 1:41. The man dubbed “Mr.Finland” is a fighter to keep an eye on, and he has a solid track record. He is 12-2 in his career, so he has proven to be beatable, but ten of his 12 wins have come by stoppage. He has also moved to the SBG Ireland camp in preparation for this fight, training alongside the likes of Conor McGregor. He will have the best coaching he has experienced thus far, and he’s fighting an opponent he doesn’t seem to particularly like in Mike Wilkinson. That will add fuel to the fire. Wilkinson is 9-1 in his career, but hasn’t fought since October 2014. This one is made for Amirkhani to get another finish win.
VALUE PLAYS
Michael Bisping ($8,600)
I’m going to start off by saying, as you will see below, I have his opponent, Anderson Silva, on my roster, which says how I think the fight will go. However, at his salary, in a five-round fight, Bisping is a very interesting play. Silva hasn’t fought since January 2015, and is coming off a suspension following his horrific leg break in December 2013. He is getting older, and there are questions as to whether Silva has any left. Having Bisping on your team is banking on the fact you, as a fight fan, think Silva is a shot fighter. Many feel this way. Bisping may not finish Silva with one punch, but what he has is volume. He lands a lot, and this fight could drag on for five rounds, giving him more opportunities to add on to your point total. I’m not playing him on my roster, but his salary is excellent value, and would allow you to spend up on some higher-priced fighters.
Thales Leites ($8,400)
Thales Leites is an interesting play as I see his salary just too low. He is very undervalued in his fight against Gegard Mousasi, and I see Mousasi at $11,000 being too high. This is why Leites makes my value play list. Leites is 5-1 since returning to the UFC, and his lone loss came to Michael Bisping in a very close fight in July. He also has the fight style that has given Mousasi a lot of trouble in the past- a solid striker with an excellent submission game. He could give Mousasi fits, and Mousasi is coming off the first knockout loss of his career in his last fight. Leites has just too low of a salary to not consider him being on your roster. He will be on mine, and he is a solid value play.
FIGHTERS TO AVOID
Krzysztof Jotko ($10,100)
Krzysztof Jotko is an impressive 16-1 in his career, and 3-1 inside the Octagon. However, of those 16 wins, only six have come by stoppage, and he hasn’t finished an opponent since September 2012. He doesn’t rack up a lot of points either, outside of his dominant win over Tor Troeng, and he tends to have close fights. He has a solid opponent in Bradley Scott, who is tough to finish and has been a finisher himself in his career, as all of his wins have come by finish. Scott is actually a solid play for the event himself. Jotko just doesn’t strike me as a fighter looking to finish, just one who wants a win. There are a lot of finishers on this event, thus making Jotko an easy fighter to avoid.
Norman Parke ($8,700)
Norman Parke has been in way too many close fights to my liking, and is an easy fighter to pass up on this event. His salary is tempting since it gives you some space to spend up on your roster, and let’s face it, you have to have a lower salary fighter on your team. However, he has a tough match-up against Rustam Khabilov, a strong takedown artist, and this is the type of fight Parke comes up short in. Parke has just one finish win in the UFC, which came against an opponent who is 0-5 in the UFC in his career. He isn’t going to finish Khabilov, and I don’t even see him getting the win. He is an easy one to pass on, and don’t get tempted by his low salary. Avoid, avoid, avoid.
OUR LINEUPS:
RYAN FREDERICK- Tom Breese ($11,400), Anderson Silva ($10,800), Makwan Amirkhani ($10,200), Marlon Vera ($8,900), Thales Leites ($8,400)
Tom Breese is the big play of the event and I’m having him on my roster. He is an excellent prospect, and you can’t go against someone who has won by finish in every one of his fights. He has an excellent match-up to get another finish. Next I have Anderson Silva. It does feel like a risky play at his salary, but if he hasn’t lost a step, I think he finishes Michael Bisping. The big question is making sure he isn’t a shot fighter at his age and after the rough past few years. Makwan Amirkhani is also on my team, and his UFC track record with two wins in a less than two combined minutes is hard to overlook. He also has an opponent he is motivated to put away quickly, and he is an excellent prospect. I’m rounding out my team with Marlon Vera and Thales Leites. Vera got a finish in his last fight, and he’s fighting Davey Grant, who hasn’t fought since November 2013 and is coming off being stopped in his lone UFC fight. Vera has a solid shot at the upset. Thales Leites’ salary is just too low, and he has a style to defeat Gegard Mousasi. I’m picking Mousasi to win the fight, but Leites has the ability to get the upset.
PAUL FONTAINE- Gegard Mousasi ($11,000), Anderson Silva ($10,800), Makwan Amirkhani ($10,200), Brad Pickett ($9,000), Marlon Vera ($8,900)
If my picks in recent weeks are any indication, your best bet is probably to pick the exact opposite of my team! But I will try and make a case here for why I’m going with these five. Silva is a points fighter who does have deceptive power. I don’t see any way that Bisping knocks out Silva. So this fight is either going to go the full five rounds, meaning Silva gets a lot of points for striking, or Silva finishes him at some point. Either way, he should rack up some point. Mousasi is a front runner who always looks great in fights against guys ranked below him as is the case her. He should dominate Leites on the way to an early finish. I’m taking a bit of a chance with Brad Pickett, who’s on a 3 fight losing streak but his opponent Rivera has been finished in each of his last two losses and Pickett does have finishing ability at 135. I’m really surprised Marlon Viera is an underdog against Davey Grant, who hasn’t found in 2 1/2 years. Vera is coming off a 2nd round submission win and the group of fighters that he came in with from the first season of TUF Latin America has done very well in UFC. I like him to score another stoppage win here. My last pick is Mr Finland, who I think is a lock to score an early finish. He could be the future of the Featherweight division as the man is extremely popular, oozes charisma and has scary finishing ability…the Finnish Conor if you will.
PEACH MACHINE- Anderson Silva ($10,800), Davey Grant ($10,500), Francisco Rivera ($10,400), Bradley Scott ($9,300), Thales Leites ($8,400)
I like Anderson Silva. Bisping will be able to hang for a while and he’ll engage Silva and get knocked out late… I like Leites. Mousasi is coming off a bad KO, and hasn’t looked good… Rivera will KO Pickett but this should be a fun one round fight… I’m taking Scott more as a pick against Jotko who was not impressive last time I saw him… I’m taking Grant more as a pick against Vera, but I don’t know anything about either guy, I just hate Brandon Vera so much it extends to anyone with that last name. I went 4-1 last week but I’m not as confident this week.
Brie and Nikki are in a historic hotel in Buffalo. Nikki says she is going to stay in Phoenix but Brie says she can’t stay with her because Nikki is too needy. John Cena, in a flashback, calls her a “needy monster.” Nikki has to stay alone in her mom’s giant house.
Backstage, everyone is touching Rosa. She is distressed that Bobby, the father of her unborn child, is an atheist. She hasn’t told her Christian mom yet. They’ve been dating for six months. Paige burps and apologizes to Rosa. Rosa says its ok, it smells good. Paige is worried because something bad happened on social media. Fox is upset, too.
Carrano is going to be pissed. Everyone is watching John Cena’s match. Nikki is freaking out because Cena broke his nose. Cena is still wrestling. Fox is talking to Rosa about Carrano who has been doing damage control for the social media problem. After all the fuss, Fox thinks it’s time for a lifestyle change.
Nattie is worried about Cena so she comes over to his house to drink wine with Nikki. Nikki tells Nattie that even though she’s fearless in the ring she has a lot of fear outside the ring.
*****
In Tulsa, OK, Fox tells everyone they are going to start a lifestyle change this weekend. She forces Paige to swear that they are not going to get into trouble.
At a red carpet event for WWE 2k16, a British journalist asks Nikki about John Cena’s nose.
In a car, Rosa is with Bobby the atheist. She tells him she is going to make pasta primavera, and he says that’s too much. She reminds him that he asked for a crazy girl. He’s excited to be a father. They’ve named the baby Jordan. Bobby says not to buy kale. His father doesn’t like kale. Rosa asks Bobby to pretend not to be an atheist. He won’t pretend. Bobby doesn’t want Jordan to get baptized and Rosa does.
I’m starting to worry that the Divas aren’t going to any nice restaurants this episode.
In a car, Fox and Paige are going to a furniture store. Paige asks to get food. Finally, they make it to a nice restaurant. Paige orders some drinks and Fox is upset because she wants to have a lifestyle change this weekend. Paige orders more drinks and tells the waiter she likes to go to karaoke and she wants to play bingo. The waiter tells her about dirty bingo. Fox is pissed but doesn’t say anything because she enjoys being self-righteously angry.
Meanwhile in Rosa’s life, she asks Bobby to baby proof the house. He reminds her that the baby isn’t coming for another 5 months. She wants to baby proof the house to impress Bobby the atheist’s dad. She hired a caterer to make dinner so she can pretend she did it.
Paige arrives at dirty bingo, but it’s just regular bingo. All the old guys are hitting on Paige and Fox. Paige is having fun flirting with all the old guys. Fox is not. At all. She’s frustrated because the furniture store is closing.
Brie and Nikki are checking into a nice hotel. Nikki wants to stay in the same room, but Brie needs some personal space. Nikki does not react well to the boundaries that Brie is attempting to set.
Bobby and his dad arrive at Rosa’s house and everything is going great with the parents. They make small talk, but then Rosa’s mom asks Bobby to pray. He tells her that he doesn’t pray. Everyone looks around the room nervously.
*****
Rosa says a prayer, while everyone but Bobby touches hands.
In a Florida bar, Fox complains that they didn’t go to the furniture store. She’s fed up and leaves the bar.
Back in Rosa’s apartment, Rosa asks Bobby’s dad if he likes fajitas. He doesn’t. Please also remember that Bobby’s dad also doesn’t like kale. Hopefully you will be able to use this information at some point in your life. Rosa’s mom wants the baby to be baptized. Bobby tries to explain that he doesn’t. He leaves the room. Rosa calms Bobby down and they come back in the house Rosa’s mom leaves. Bobby’s dad tells Rosa everything is going to be ok.
Nikki barges into Brie’s hotel room. Brie is pissed. She kicks the cameras out. She kicks Nikki out. Nikki doesn’t understand boundaries and tells Brie she hates her.
Back in Orlando, Paige returns home. Fox is mad. She tells Paige she’s mad because she is taking this lifestyle change seriously, and she needs support. Paige is sorry, she’s not ready to settle down, but she should have gone to the furniture store and not bingo.
In the hotel, Nikki asks Nattie if she can sleep with her. Nattie is lying in bed in full make-up. Nikki talks about how she is so frightened at night and has nightmares. Nikki admits she is terrified of death. Nattie thinks it’s because she didn’t have a father figure after her grandfather died. All this Cena injury stuff is triggering her old fears.
*****
To make up for yesterday, Paige decides to take Fox to a taxidermy stuff. Fox loves taxidermy stuff. They buy a horned animal skull and Fox is so stoked.
Backstage, Nattie tells Brie she got a psychic reading. Mr. Belding from “Saved By The Bell” comes up and gives Nattie a hug. Nattie tells Brie about all the dark stuff Nikki was saying last night She’s worried. Brie tells her it’s nothing. Nattie doesn’t think it’s nothing. Now Brie is worried.
In Phoenix, Brie invites Nikki over. She ask, “Why are you so anxious?” Nikki tells her she’s worried about death because of her grandfather dying. Brie had no idea Nikki was hurting so much. Brie feels bad, Nikki says she should feel bad. Brie realizes she’s been unfair to her sister. They talk about the Disney Channel.
And that’s all! I’ll leave it to greater philosophers than I to break down the very rich symbolic depictions of life and death as represented in this episode by Nikki’s fear of death, the taxidermy skull bought by Paige and Fox, and the coming birth of Rosa’s child, the baby Jordan. The brightest minds of this generation received an intellectual gift tonight, one whose magnificence will not be fully understood for several lifetimes.
The biggest news of the last few weeks seems to not really revolve around WWE Fast Lane, taking place this Sunday. Titus O’Neil being suspended, Daniel Bryan retiring and a whole bunch of other news seems to have put this show in the back burner. On paper, this looks like a fun card. But in terms of presentation and execution, it feels a bit lackluster. There’s big stipulations on the line, but it seems clear who will be taking on Triple H at WrestleMania. The February PPV is always aimed to kick off the buildup towards WrestleMania. Will this card do that, or will we simply see a bunch of matches that will eventually lead us towards that build in the last few weeks before WrestleMania?
Staff roundtable for this month (along with their current Pickem stats!):
United States Championship: Kallisto vs. Alberto del Rio (2 out of 3 Falls Match)
Bryan Rose: This feels like a nothing feud. I think Alberto del Rio has won the last two weeks in generic tags, including pinning Kallisto. For Kallisto, it’s one of these pushes where they had something, but then because he’s small, “has to fight for every win”, which is WWE code for he loses a lot. When Kallisto initially won the title it was a really cool moment because it was something WWE almost never does, and gave Kallisto instant credibility as a new guy they can move towards. A month later, Kallisto is back to feeling like just another guy on the roster. And now that Sin Cara is back teaming with him, most likely this is the match where Alberto regains the championship.
Winner: Alberto del Rio
Alan O’Brien: This is the toughest match on the card to call, for me. With the feud already 50/50ed at two apiece, the only booking hint one can point to is the string of losses The Lucha Dragons have sustained at the hands of Del Rio’s League of Nations in recent weeks. Beating Kalisto with this regularity might ordinarily indicate that he’s keeping the strap, given they way they think; but he’s only taken the fall himself on a single occasion. As such, I’m taking a shot in the dark here really; Del Rio to win by nefarious means, potentially leading into the Wrestlemania rematch nobody wanted. Let’s face it, he’s got nothing going on at the minute, while Kalisto has the fallback of his newly returned tag team partner.
Winner: Alberto Del Rio
PeachMachine: I’m taking Kalisto. I just don’t think Al of the River will have what it takes to keep the young spry luchador at bay. Plus my guess is that they are disbanding the League of Nations, and hopefully changing it to the League of Extraordinary Gentlemen. They’ve already got the Beast (Rusev), the Scientist (technically chemist if you look at Del Rio’s bod), and the Invisible Man (Sheamus).
Winner: The man under Kalisto’s mask
James Cox: Who knows what they are planning to do with any of these League of Nations guys. It’s been enough of a ‘push’ to make Wade Barrett give notice. Does that mean they change things up? Probably not. I think they need to blow this feud off and keep the title on Kalisto for a while. 2 out of 3 falls matches tend to be a bit pointless and this one feels the same: it means they can keep Del Rio strong by having Kalisto steal a win – the ideal way to book a champion, right?
Winner: Kalisto
Kyle S. Johnson: I had, honest to god, completely forgotten these two were having a match until I started writing my predictions. Kalisto has already started teaming with Sin Cara again, and he’s done almost nothing of note since getting the U.S. Championship back at the Rumble, so he’s already cooled off quite a bit from the buzz he built for himself at TLC. The fact that there is at least a fallback direction for Kalisto while Del Rio suddenly feels completely without purpose leads me to believe that Alberto is just going to win the belt back here and take it into Wrestlemania. Neither guy seems to be angled to do anything different moving forward, so I wouldn’t be shocked if they just wind up wrestling again in Dallas, perhaps in a in a luchas de apuestas.
Winner: Alberto Del Rio
Steve Khan: I thought Del Rio would retain at the Rumble since it seemed like the long-term plan was to have the belt on him. Kalisto’s win was likely just to stretch this out until Sin Cara got back. I’m not sure why Kalisto can’t be U.S. Champion and in a good tag-team at the same time, but apparently he can’t.
Winner: Alberto Del Rio
Diva’s Championship: Charlotte (c) vs. Brie Bella
Bryan Rose: I’ve actually kind of liked the build towards this. I mean yeah, alright, it’s basically piggybacking off the Daniel Bryan stuff from a week ago. But the interview segment they had on Raw was one of the better angles they’ve done in this division as of late, and it does give Brie Bella some babyface credibility at a time when she’s probably needed it the most since her character as a whole is largely inconsistent. I don’t see Bella winning since she has intentions on leaving, though they could do the swerve win to honor Daniel Bryan. I think they have plans for what’s going down at WrestleMania, however, and I don’t think Brie fits into them.
Winner: Charlotte
Alan O’Brien: While it’s possible they may give Brie her pre-retirement “moment”, I think it’s far more likely that they will opt to stretch Charlotte’s reign ahead of her inevitable ‘Mania triple threat match against Sasha and Becky. Giving the strap to Brie for a cup of coffee doesn’t really do anyone any favours.
Winner: Charlotte
PeachMachine: I think Brie Bella will win. WWE wants to capitalize on the D. Bryan momentum. Even though Charlotte’s abs look similar to Lesnar’s, I like B. Danielson to take home the Labia title.
Winner: Sweet D.
James Cox: It makes sense to put the title on Brie here. They can take it off her before she leaves but her and Daniel Bryan to celebrate in the ring together seems like a good way to go. She has won it before, but they can still make it look like a big deal – especially with Nikki out injured and Bryan having just retired. If they wanted, I guess they could even build this up to a retirement match/angle at WrestleMania or this summer.
Winner: Brie Bella
Kyle S. Johnson: This has been an unusual month or so for the women of the WWE. All signs seemed to be pointing to building Sasha vs. Charlotte at Wrestlemania while possibly keeping Becky Lynch in the picture at the same time, and then the next thing you know, Becky and Sasha are buddying up and Charlotte is wrestling Brie on a one-week build. Giving a suddenly-face Brie a championship match out of nowhere after being beaten constantly for three months would be a mind-boggling (if not completely unsurprising) development were it not for the retirement of Daniel Bryan, but having Charlotte beat Brie and then move on to a three-way with Becky and Sasha at Mania seems like the logical end-game here.
Winner: Charlotte
Steve Khan: This worked out nicely as a quick program for Charlotte, who can successfully defend her belt while they set up Banks and/or Lynch for a Mania title match. There’s no reason for Brie to win. The match itself should be ok, and all the Yes chants should help.
Winner: Charlotte
AJ Styles vs. Chris Jericho
Bryan Rose: This is going to be pretty good. Presentation wise I’ve kind of hated this feud as they keep calling him the “Rookie Redneck” and “the Pitbull” because he’s a) short and has to fight for everything he has (sound familiar?), b) from Georgia and c) has wrestled everywhere but WWE. Aside from all that, AJ has been good, not great in his WWE run so far. Maybe with more time and a PPV atmosphere, AJ and Styles can go out there and have a fantastic match. I don’t think Jericho needs the win in this series, so I’m giving it to Styles.
Winner: AJ Styles
Alan O’Brien: Possible show-stealer here, given how much of an upgrade the second match was on the disappointing first. The result is in no doubt, however; Styles victory all the way, with the added potential of a post-match Jericho heel turn.
Winner: AJ Styles
PeachMachine: Jericho. AJ is getting over too fast. WWE hates success and money.
Winner: The fans (sniiiiiiffffffffffff)
James Cox: I don’t really mind what they do, this and the main event make this show worth watching. I assume that they are going to spin this feud out to WrestleMania – and so they should. 50/50 booking ‘logic’ says that Jericho gets a win here. Styles should win at WrestleMania to keep the fans happy.
Winner: Chris Jericho
Kyle S. Johnson: This should be great. Say what you will about the build, with the ridiculous sub-branding of AJ Styles as a “pitbull” and a “redneck rookie” and the involvement of The Miz, but this could very well be the match of the show by a wide margin if given the right amount of time and the right approach. Beating AJ doesn’t make any sense here unless the plan is to have these two wrestle again at Wrestlemania, and while I would have no complaints if that would be the ultimate direction, it would still make more sense to have Styles win and Jericho make a full heel turn after the fact to lead into their next match. I expect these two to go in with the goal of having the best match on the show, and if that’s what they have in mind, there’s no reason to suspect they won’t deliver.
Winner: AJ Styles
Steve Khan: Whatever the plan is with Jericho, Styles has to win this match.
Winner: AJ Styles
Ryback, Kane and Big Show vs. The Wyatt Family (Erik Rowan, Luke Harper and Braun Strowman)
Bryan Rose: I fell asleep during the main event from Raw. And from what I’ve heard, I didn’t miss much. This is just not very compelling in the least bit. It’s all designed for Vince McMahon’s latest pet project, Braun Strowman. He’s tall. That’s all you need to know about why Vince likes the guy. I’m sure he’ll develop into something good, as it does seem like he has a ton of potential and has a good look, but I just think out of everyone you signed, you pushed this guy because…he’s tall. Well, whatever. I don’t have any other thoughts on this match other than I hope it’s short because as a match, it looks like it has zero potential to be anything but plodding. Wyatts win.
Winners: Wyatts
Alan O’Brien: The only winner here is Vince, with these six hosses bound to “set a methodical pace”, as Good Ol’ JR used to say. I cannot possibly fathom anything other than a victory for Strowman et al. Only the Edge/Christian/New Day segment could possibly be more “bowling shoe ugly” than this one is sure to be.
Winner: The Wyatt Family
PeachMachine: Uh, BIG SHOW! He’s got the Knock Out Punch! It’s literally the best finisher ever. He’s super big and strong and hits you super hard and knocks people out. He should be all the champions.
Winner: The Impressive Spectacle, Kane, and Growth Hormone or whatever his name is
James Cox: So Big Show said on the Stone Cold Podcast that he reckoned he had another two years left. What about Kane? I figure he’s only back due to all the injuries on the roster. I could see him bowing out at WrestleMania, but I don’t know who against. Wyatts don’t need to win here because they’re going to interfere in the main event, but I’ll say that they do because otherwise there are too many babyface wins on this card.
Winner: Wyatts
Kyle S. Johnson: Big Show was pretty great on Austin’s podcast on Monday. This feud, on the other hand, has not been great. At all. There has been absolutely nothing done in the past four weeks to make me care about anyone involved in this match, apart perhaps from Ryback’s ridiculous sunset flip thing on Luke Harper last Monday. Kane, Show, and The Big Guy have no direction whatsoever leading into Wrestlemania, so having them go over here makes no sense. I presume that the Wyatts will come out looking strong so that Bray can ultimately lose to somebody (probably Brock) at Wrestlemania.
Winner: The Wyatt Family
Steve Khan: This show seems awfully predictable, and with Bray not in this match, I could see this as an opening for the good guys to win and surprise everyone. That would be pretty dumb though, and this is the time of year the company does fewer dumb things than usual.
Winner: The Wyatt Family
Intercontinental Championship: Kevin Owens (c) vs. Dolph Ziggler
Bryan Rose: On paper, this sounds great. Owens is a really special performer. Ziggler is great. But here is the problem: I’ve seen this. They’ve had two very long, pretty great matches on Raw in the last two weeks. Ziggler won both of those cleanly. Now, I understand all of that was build towards this match. But it doesn’t forego the fact that I’ve seen this. A lot of times. I’m sure it’ll be great, but the build towards this has been lackluster, and they haven’t given me much reason why I should care about a third outing when Ziggler’s beaten him twice. I say Owens retains, but who knows.
Winner: Kevin Owens
Alan O’Brien: Ziggler has beaten Owens twice; that alone, in 50/50 land, is evidence enough that Owens will be getting one of his wins back on Sunday. Add to that the fact that he will have held the strap for less than a week and you’ve got yourself a lock.
Winner: Kevin Owens
PeachMachine: I like Ziggler here. I feel like they put the belt on KO just because they want him to drop it to Zigs and do the double turn and the rematch at mania.
Winner: The Z-man jr.
James Cox: Kevin Owens to retain. Longer term, it would be good to see Owens and Styles go at it. Ziggler doesn’t need a title, but if they do give it to him, they ought to turn him heel. Owens at Ziggler at Mania would be fine but there are more exciting options. I hope they are creative with the finish; Owens’ PPV matches have always seemed to offer something fresh since he started with the company.
Winner: Kevin Owens
Kyle S. Johnson: These two are probably going to have a really fun match, but having seen this so many times already in the span of a month kills a lot of the intrigue, even if those matches were also a lot of fun. This match certainly would have a bigger air about it if Ziggler was booked better, but he hasn’t been, so it doesn’t. Owens just won the belt on Monday, and he’s not going to lose it here. Here’s hoping that this feud ends with the quickness and the next weeks lead to Owens vs. Zayn at ‘Mania.
Winner: Kevin Owens
Steve Khan: Owens should win and he probably will.
Winner: Kevin Owens
Becky Lynch & Sasha Banks vs. Naomi & Tamina
Bryan Rose: I don’t really have much to say about this. Just seems like filler in between whatever the real Diva’s title match is going to be at WrestleMania. Sasha and Becky as the team that doesn’t always get along is so tired, especially after they’ve broken up all the teams they set up in the summer over the last few months. They get the win, maybe leading to a three way with Charlotte for the Diva’s title at WrestleMania. That’d be a nice story, to see the NXT women from last year headline their division at WrestleMania a year later.
Winners: Lynch and Banks
Alan O’Brien: This match surely only exists to build Sasha and Becky for their slated triple threat match at ‘Mania with champion, Charlotte. Anything other than a victory for the babyfaces would be a bafflingly strange outcome.
Winner: Becky Lynch and Sasha Banks
PeachMachine: Banks. I hate Lynch. She’s disgusting and terrible. Sasha’s entrance music is the greatest thing since declaring that you rule in 6th grade. “I’m on top of the playground! I rule!” Yes you do, Billy. You rule.
Winner: Sasha Banks only
James Cox: I think that Naomi and Tamina should win this to finally break up this on-again, off-again nonsense between Banks and Lynch. Banks ought to be involved at WrestleMania, in front of that kind of crowd she’ll be beloved.
Winners: Naomi & Tamina
Kyle S. Johnson: What can you say about this cobbled together placeholder match? Banks and Lynch should be primed for a three-way Divas Championship match at Wrestlemania, so I expect them to tease dissention as a team but ultimately get a convincing win to put them into position.
Winners: Sasha Banks and Becky Lynch
Steve Khan: A threeway at Mania seems likely, but even if it isn’t, Lynch and Banks should both go over strong. I can see a double submission spot as the finish (Lynch with the Disarmer, Sasha with the Bank Statement).
Winner: Lynch & Banks
Winner Goes to Headline WrestleMania: Dean Ambrose vs. Roman Reigns vs. Brock Lesnar
Bryan Rose: This is supposed to be a match that causes a lot of intrigue, but for me it’s more along the lines of…well, this is predictable. Not that predictable is bad, because when WWE is unpredictable things could be worse. But I think I mostly know how this’ll go. Wyatt will come out and allow Reigns to get the win, probably over Ambrose. What they do with Ambrose after this will be the most interesting thing coming out of this match, as they’ve been teasing a turn between him and Reigns forever. It’ll be interesting to see if it actually happens. Even though the intrigue of the match isn’t completely there, I think if they go all out this could actually steal the show. If that actually happens or not, we’ll have to wait and see! Roman wins, though, as HHH/Reigns is the only match I see headlining WrestleMania at this point.
Winner: Roman Reigns
Alan O’Brien: Gotta go with the predictable outcome here, I’m afraid. Dean is in the match to take the fall. Lesnar may also be further protected by finding himself taken out of the equation by the Wyatts. Roman’s pinfall victory over his “brother” will both propel him to ‘Mania and fuel Ambrose’s future heel turn. Finally, HHH’s receipt of the Legacy of Excellence Award on Monday night will serve to restart he and Roman’s oh-so-thrilling program. Yay. Looking forward to six weeks of the insecure nerd telling Reigns he should have a bone through his nose, before hitting him with the Pedigree and pinning him after lying around for five minutes. Or not, whatever.
Winner: Roman Reigns
PeachMachine: Trips comes to the ring, tosses Lesnar the belt, he drills Romanowski with it for the KO and the win, and Lesnar joins the Authority and is expected to lay down for the game at Mania. And he does with no qualms. HHH is champion forever. Winner: No one.
James Cox: WWE generally do what is obvious every year en route to WrestleMania. No difference here. Wyatts take out Lesnar and Reigns beats Ambrose. I think the tease an Ambrose/Reigns turn but save it for later. Before the interruptions and post-match shenanigans, I think this will be a great match. All I’ll say, is thank god for Brock Lesnar.
Winner: Roman Reigns
Kyle S. Johnson: I have to give credit where it’s due in that WWE would be doing a great job of convincing the audience that Brock or Dean might win this match…were it not for the fact that Roman winning is the only possible outcome. Granted, that’s not a bad thing: the story demands Roman against Triple H at Wrestlemania, and so that’s what we’re going to get. What will be interesting is to see how this match is constructed, and how much it teases Ambrose potentially turning heel. Roman’s win will likely be set up by The Wyatts laying out Lesnar as he is primed to win (even if that completely disregards the endless months of Bray’s “anyone but you” mantra), and it makes sense for Dean to take the pin and use the loss as fuel for a vendetta against his former partner after he takes the title back at Wrestlemania.
Winner: Roman Reigns
Steve Khan: So this should be interesting. They’ve done a good job of focusing on the two guys not named Roman Reigns, leading us to think maybe he won’t win. But he probably will. They’ve changed plans before, but at this point they might as well go with Reigns and Triple H. If the Wyatts cost Lesnar the match, that will cheapen Reigns’ win, so they have to be careful. The Wyatts could abduct Lesnar near the end of the match, leaving it down to Reigns and Ambrose. Reigns can pin Ambrose again, leading to Ambrose’s turn down the line.
With the second-ever WWE Fastlane Sunday night, what better time to look at the state of WWE one year ago than by watching last year’s show? This is a read-a-long to be enjoyed while watching said WWE PPV on the WWE Network…or the DVD if you’re still buying those.
It’s interesting to look and see the positioning of guys on the card one year ago. As you may recall, the main event was a match between Daniel Bryan and Roman Reigns. It’s sad to think that the recently retired Bryan was at the top of his game just a year ago — positioned as the guy to get Reigns over for his main event at Wrestlemania 31.
Let’s go back to February 22nd at the FedEx Forum in Memphis, TN, and look at the main talking points from each match.
The Authority (Seth Rollins/Kane/Big Show) w/Jamie Noble and Joey Mercury vs. Dolph Ziggler, Erick Rowan, and Ryback
What a team of babyfaces. The reaction to Rowan was non-existent.
This was a fine match, but nothing special because nobody cares about anyone in this mix. Dolph got the mild tag from Ryback, and went wild until Big Show KO’d Ziggler and Kane pinned him.
Show’s punch was replayed in slow motion which showed how obviously Ziggler jumped into it. Hilarious.
Seth hit the curb stomp on Zig post match to get their heat back, until Randy Orton ran in and cleaned house. RKOs out of everywhere!
Stardust vs. Goldust
Finally the match between the Rhodes brothers nobody asked for!
Dusty was shown giving Goldust a pep talk before the match which was pretty cool.
Remember Cody’s new body from five years ago? He wrestled this match shirtless. My guess is that it was shortly after this match where big brother grabbed little brother’s ear and revealed to him the secret of longevity in wrestling: the full body suit. “It’s great, Cody. You never have to work out or tan or eat good. Sure you have to scrape paint flakes out of your eyes every morning, but look at me! I got Terri Runnels with this physique!”
This had a weird ending. Gold rolled up Star and the referee counted one, two, and then didn’t hit the mat for the three, but Star’s shoulders were definitely down for three and so the ref hopped up and said it was a three count and the match was over. I think the storyline was that the ref got paid off by Dusty to end the match early so that his sons would not get hurt. That, or they blew the finish.
Cody beat down Dustin after the match in front of the Dream.
WWE Tag Team Champions The Usos (Jey and James) w/ Naomi vs. Tyson Kidd and Cesaro w/ Natalya
Facts. Cats. Those are the words on Kidd’s kick pads, because he likes cats AND drops facts. What a gimmick.
Cesaro and Kidd were so great. What awful luck for both of these guys lately. Get well soon!
Cesaro did a one-legged swing with an Uso. That is freaky impressive.
Kidd hooked in the Sharpshooter and got superkicked. Jimmy got the visual fall on Kidd as the action spilled outside. This match is getting good.
Then, just like that, it’s over. Kidd hits an Uso with a spinning fisherman buster and gets the pin, and the belts. Your new champions Tyson Kidd and Cesaro!
Kidd’s tan was Olympic level.
HHH and Sting Face-to-Face
Remember this? Me neither. Boy, Sting dropped off the radar fast.
HHH cut a mighty promo, especially blowhardy today.
Sting came out and got face-to-face with The Game
HHH went for the cheap shot and it broke down into a brawl, leading to a sledgehammer vs. baseball bat standoff. The baseball bat won, for now.
WWE Divas Champion Nikki Bella w/ Brie vs. Paige
Paige’s outfit is completely black here. Reebok probably designed it. I like the addition of the blue these days though.
Is the Divas Revolution done? Is everyone good and revolted? I haven’t heard that used in a while. Good thing too. WWE nomenclature is infuriating.
The crowd was absolutely dead for this match, and remember, this is mid Nikki’s record-breaking title reign.
Nikki won with a roll up and a handful of tights.
WWE I-C Champion Bad News Barrett vs. Dean Ambrose
Barrett’s music is pretty cool. The League of Nations’ music suuuuuuuuuucks.
Dean Ambrose has the best gimmick. He gets to just show up and simply take off his shirt and he’s ready to wrestle. You know he wears those jeans everywhere, and he’s definitely a guy who really wears wife beater t-shirts. I’m wearing one now. It’s quite comfy. It’s pink too. #PinkLivesMatter #TeamViggity
Barrett is a good wrestler. He’s another guy who is really good but has had just terrible luck with injuries right when he was about to get pushed, along with Cesaro, Tyson Kidd, Sin Cara, etc.
Ambrose got DQ’d for using the belt. He laid Barrett out, got caught, got DQ’d, then walked off with the belt anyway. Ha!
Unannounced, the Druids enter the arena. Then the gong hits. I think Glacier is making his debut! No. It’s a casket. Maybe Glacier is in the casket. Nope. It’s Bray Wyatt. Boooooooh.
WWE US Champion Rusev w/ Lana vs. John Cena
Rusev just whipped up on old Johnny boy for a while.
Rusev should have shoes on, specifically the Iron Shiek’s shoes. That would be awesome. (I know they are different countries but who cares?)
People didn’t make a big enough deal about Cena getting away from jorts. That topic needed its own Observer issue. Why did he do it? I predict that within the next five years, jean shorts will come back in style.
They did the yay/boo spot. Rusev needs to start doing the ten punches in the corner spot and count in Russian. It would be amazing if he could get the fans to actually learn to count to ten in Russian.
Rusev and Cena exchange some submissions. Good action.
This was when Rusev was undefeated with like six losses on his record.
Rusev won by technical submission as Cena was passed out in the Accolade so lil Naitch rang the bell.
Cena did this hokey selling post match that got booed. Ha!
Roman Reigns vs. Daniel Bryan to determine the number one contender to the WWE World Heavyweight Championship
They had a dang good match.
I’m still not sure why Reigns is allowed to wear body armor. That seems like cheating.
I love JBL: “Don’t forget, I know stuff about old boxing.”
It’s a shame Bryan never did the “I’ve got til FIVE!” spot in WWE. I’ll bet Vince nixed that.
Huge belly to back off the top by Bryan into the Yes lock!
Both guys took idiotic bumps outside the ring for a long double down.
I can’t help but believe the crowd is going to be unhappy with this finish.
Bryan with the running knee!
I missed some of the match researching gambling odds on the Oscars.
Does anyone get a redder face than Mike Chioda?
Bryan did the Brie Mode kicks (wink).
Reigns hit a monster spear for the clean pin.
Bryan does the rude put over, getting in Reigns’ face and telling him he’d better kick his (Brock’s) buns.
Summary:
I really don’t like the Fastlane name. It was much better when Elimination Chamber was the February show. I know the argument against doing a gimmick show for the sake of the gimmick, but the Elimination Chamber was always a draw, and Fastlane sounds like some group think garbage that’s been polished over to make it appealing to everyone. That’s a mistake. The more polished something feels, the less real it feels, and thus we find it phony. I hope WWE takes notice of the Daniel Bryan retirement speech and realizes that fans connect to realness, but they probably won’t.
The Octagon returns this weekend with an event on Sunday night, as UFC Fight Night 83 culminates from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The card is headlined by a welterweight bout as Donald Cerrone takes on Alex Oliveira. Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when setting your fantasy line-ups for this weekend’s event.
STUDS
Derek Brunson ($11,100)
Derek Brunson has the highest salary of the 26 fighters on the card and for good reason. He is a rising contender in the middleweight division, has won three straight fights and five of six in the UFC, with his lone loss coming to Yoel Romero. He has won his last two fights by first-round knockout, and he just keeps getting better each time he steps inside the Octagon. When he steps inside that Octagon on Sunday night in the co-main event, it will be opposite of Roan Carneiro, who hasn’t fought in nearly a year. Carneiro has won six straight fights and is in the midst of a career resurgence, but he sported a 12-8 record at one point before his recent 9-1 run. Brunson is a tough opponent for someone returning from a year-long layoff, and Carneiro has been finished in six of his nine losses. Brunson is the top play of the weekend.
Donald Cerrone ($10,600)
Donald Cerrone headlines this event against the other fighter known as “Cowboy” in Alex Oliveira, and he is making his debut at 170 pounds to top it off. Gone are the big weight cuts that Cerrone makes, though he never has really shown any ill-effects from them. Oliveira is a replacement for the pulled Tim Means, taking the fight on short notice. Oliveira has taken most of his UFC bouts on short notice, and he has looked good during his UFC tenure. Cerrone is the best fighter he has ever fought, though, and Cerrone eats opponents like Oliveira up. He seems to falter against the best, and Oliveira is yet to be anywhere near that class. Cerrone is a violent finisher, and he has an excellent chance of finishing a short-notice opponent. Cerrone will be an excellent play this weekend.
VALUE PLAYS
Leonardo Augusto ($9,200)
Leonardo Augusto Guimaraes is making his UFC debut on Sunday, having scored 11 wins in 13 professional fights. He has nine wins by stoppage, and he gets a short-notice replacement in Anthony Smith, who took the fight just this week after Trevor Smith pulled out due to a hand injury. Smith has won seven straight fights outside of the UFC, but last fought less than a month ago and is taking the fight the week of the event. He likely kept himself in shape but fighting on just a few days’ notice can be a tough challenge. That makes Augusto a solid play at his salary if you are looking to spend up for your roster.
Tatsuya Kawajiri ($8,600)
Tatsuya Kawajiri is an interesting play at his salary. Only three fighters have a lower salary than him, and it’s interesting that he’s a big underdog to Dennis Bermudez, who has lost two straight fights by finish. Bermudez was on the cusp of a title shot but now has his back against the wall, while Kawajiri is rising as he gets more adjusted to fighting inside the Octagon. He is 3-1 in the UFC, and he is primed for an upset win. He might not be able to finish Bermudez, but is a good candidate to score a decision win. Having him on your roster also allows for more spending on higher-end fighters. Kawajiri is an excellent value play at his salary.
FIGHTERS TO AVOID
Daniel Sarafian ($10,400)
Daniel Sarafian has been a big disappointment during his UFC tenure. He is just 2-3 inside the Octagon, and both wins have come to opponents who are no longer on the UFC roster. He hasn’t fought since a win in December 2014, which came due to a finger injury to his opponent. He has bounced between weight classes and gyms, and it will be interesting to see how all of this, and being out of action for 14 months, affects him. He has a tough match-up against Oluwale Bamgbose, who is a knockout artist getting a full training camp. I recommend avoiding Sarafian on this card as his salary doesn’t justify his performances, and Bamgbose is a solid bet to score an upset victory.
Joe Riggs ($8,900)
Joe Riggs has been around a long time and has a lot of mileage under him. Sunday will mark his 59th career fight. He is coming off a win in his last bout, which was his first UFC win since August 2006. However, the win came due to disqualification from an illegal upkick by Ron Stallings in a fight Riggs was losing. He hasn’t looked too good during this UFC run, one that could come to an end on Sunday night. He takes on Chris Camozzi, who is in his own third stint with the UFC. Camozzi is coming off a solid win and should be in line to get another win over Riggs. I don’t see Riggs being able to top Camozzi, so I would be avoiding him on Sunday.
OUR LINE-UPS
RYAN FREDERICK- Derek Brunson ($11,100), Donald Cerrone ($10,600), Marion Reneau ($10,300), Oluwale Bamgbose ($9,000), Tatsuya Kawajiri ($8,600)
I have Derek Brunson and Donald Cerrone as my top two plays, thus I will be having them on my roster. Brunson has been super impressive in recent bouts, with two straight first-round knockout wins. He has a favorable fight against Roan Carneiro and I expect another quick finish. Donald Cerrone has a short-notice opponent in Alex Oliveira and he finishes fights where he’s the big favorite. I like him finishing Oliveira. Marion Reneau is looking to rebound from a loss to Holly Holm, and she has a good match-up with Ashlee Evans-Smith, who was choked unconscious in her last fight. I see that happening again. Oluwale Bamgbose is an underdog with a solid chance at winning by finish with his knockout power, and Daniel Sarafian has been disappointing. My last fighter on my roster is Tatsuya Kawajiri. He has good value and is a good pick for an upset win over Dennis Bermudez. I like his chances.
PAUL FONTAINE- Derek Brunson ($11,100), Jonavin Webb ($10,700), James Krause ($10,100), Leonardo Augusto ($9,200), Alex Oliveira ($8,800)
Both Cowboys are moving up a weight class for their main event 5 round fight and I think the difference could be that Alex Oliveira has fought most of his career at 170 and should be much more comfortable with the extra weight. He’s looked great since losing his UFC debut and even looked good in that fight before succumbing to a late submission. Cerrone also had a brutal KO loss in his last fight and that can be hard to come back from. Derek Brunson is a powerhouse at 185 and I look for him to finish Carneiro quickly and get me those first round stoppage bonus points. James Krause has the experience edge over his opponent Campbell and he looked awesome in his first round finish of Daron Cruickshank last time out. He hasn’t had a win that went to the judges in UFC and Sunday will be no different, in my opinion. Augusto is a bit of an unknown but his opponent is taking the fight on less than a week’s notice and just fought 3 weeks ago against a tough veteran in Josh Neer. I like him to continue his impressive non-UFC run with an early finish. Last for me is Jonavin Webb, who was robbed of a win in his UFC debut against Kyle Noke. That’s the only loss of his career and I look for him to rebound in a big way against journeyman Nathan Coy.
PEACH MACHINE- Donald Cerrone ($10,600), James Krause ($10,100), Sean Strickland ($9,900), Oluwale Bamgbose ($9,000), Augusto Mendes ($8,400)
I LOVE Mendes, aka Tanquinho, in this fight. He will submit Garbrandt… Bamgbose is scary and is going to be a player someday and I expect him to easily handle Sarafian… Cerrone needs to rebound and look good here. He will… Krause is a savage. He’s 29 and has already had 29 fights (22-7)… I like Strickland. He’s lanky and tough and 13-1, and 4-1 in UFC. I don’t think Garcia will be able to stop him… My picks have been pretty solid so far this year, and I like my picks this card. If I didn’t live in America’s urethra, aka Tennessee, I’d probably play this line-up, but you know, I can’t because jesus hates gambling, I guess. Not the lottery though, he’s cool with that.
Fox, Rosa, and Paige are at a restaurant. Its lunch time. Rosa, pregnant, asks if the baby can still breathe if she holds her breath.
Nattie greets a fan outside of RAW. Inside, Nattie grabs Mandy’s breast. We’re 30 seconds in and this show already has a lot going on. Mandy starts groping Nattie. Eva Marie goes to get something to eat, and Mandy asks Nattie to train her. What is the make-up budget for this show? Nikki tells us that she’s about to become the longest reigning Diva’s Champion in history. It means a lot to her.
Paige and Rosa are out to lunch again with Mandy, Fox, and Eva Marie. Paige and Rosa talk about how they are wearing the same underwear.
Nikki is stretching in Brie’s house. Their mom comes in and starts yelling at Nikki for not stretching more. She tells her that she has to go to a doctor and stop doing the Rack Attack. Brie tells her that Nikki should instead shove her opponent’s face into her boobs as her finishing move.
Fox, Rosa, and Paige pull up to a party store in a huge-ass 4×4 truck. Rosa is shopping for her baby shower. Paige and Fox decide they are going to make it a goth/Halloween theme. Mandy talks about how she wants to work super hard and train and focus on being the best WWE Diva she can be and, like, stuff. Eva Marie is talking about how she just got her own “social media” guy who is going to follow her around and take her picture. Mandy wants her own “social media” guy.
Nikki and John are going out to a fancy restaurant, and Nikki thinks John looks cute. John admits that he just bought 55 suits when he was in New York… Wait, he bought 55 suits? Nikki thinks it’s a little weird that he bought 55 suits on one trip to New York, too. But she thinks he looks incredible. Nikki looks distressed, but not about the suits. Her neck really hurts and John gives her a massage. Cena is worried so he gets her into the Ferrari and they leave dinner. John Cena bought 55 suits in one trip to New York. 55 suits.
Back in Florida, Eva Marie is teaching Mandy how to use social media. Eva Marie pushes Mandy in the pool. In the gym, Sheamus tells Nikki he is selling his house and he’ll probably never have a family. Nikki is having hard times lifting weights. Backstage at Smackdown, Nattie is talking about how cute cats are. The pyro in the arena scares Rosa. Brie yells at Fox for planning a gothic themed baby shower for Rosa.
In a car, Brie is yelling at Nikki for not yawning after she yawned. Nikki is stoked that she’s going to be in the history books as the longest reigning Divas Champion of all time. Nikki is going to the doctor to get OZONE shots in her back. Everyone is telling Nikki to take care of herself and take some time off.
*****
Back in Florida, Nattie is working out at the performance center waiting for Mandy, who shows up really late in Converse. Nattie is pissed. She has one day off a week and Mandy asked her to drive two hours from Tampa to Orlando in order to help her train. Mandy wants to take a selfie before they start. Nattie finally has had enough and leaves. Mandy does not even understand why Nattie is pissed. Mandy apologizes and Nattie agrees to stay and help.
In Memphis, Rosa, Fox and Paige are in a car and Paige finds out she’s going to be on Conan. But it’s on the day of the baby shower. She tells them she actually wants the baby shower in California, not Florida. Nobody listened to her. Fox tells her she’s being selfish.
In another car, Nattie tells Nikki that all the NXT girls text TJ. Nattie tells Nikki she has to power through the pain. Again, Nattie with the worst advice (like when she offered her father alcohol, even though he’s sober). Backstage, Rosa starts to unload to Mandy about how mad she is about the baby shower. Mandy stares at her blankly. Nattie and Brie are talking about Nikki’s back, and now that she’s in front of Brie, Nattie tells Nikki to take it easy. The girls are eating in catering and Rosa comes in and confronts Fox. This baby shower is getting nasty.
*****
Backstage at RAW, Fox apologizes to Rosa but she’s actually not sorry.
Nikki is about to fight Charlotte, if she wins she’s the longest reigning Diva’s Champion in history. Her back is ruined though. This is crazy. It’s amazing to think what these athletes do to entertain. I know this show is fake but my respect for Nikki is real. Nikki becomes the longest reigning Diva’s Champion of all time.
Brie says that Nikki will never have kids to share this moment with. To celebrate the Divas go out to dinner with Dolph Ziggler. Dolph talks about having sex with the belt on. Brie gives a speech about how great Nikki is. Fox stands up and gives her own speech where she apologizes to Rosa. Rosa forgives her but she refuses to apologize back. She shouldn’t. Paige says it’s time to haze Mandy and asks her who the hottest Superstar is, and she says Dolph Ziggler, who has a big smile. Ziggler asks her if she’d rather have a reality show or be champion. She lies and says she would rather be the champion. Nattie thinks she’s genuine. Mandy says she would be in a long term relationship with Nattie. Paige says they respect Mandy. Everyone learned a lot of lessons this week.
They went to a lot of nice looking restaurants, but the big takeaway… John Cena bought 55 suits on one trip to New York.
If I’ve learned one thing in the world of UFC in 2016, it’s that UFC thinks that the value of a Fabricio Werdum fight is about $60. I say this because tonight’s card was originally scheduled for PPV and when the Werdum heavyweight title defence was pulled from the card, it became a free television show. As a PPV, this show would’ve been a tough sell but as a free card, it’s pretty damned good.
Former welterweight champion Johny Hendricks returns to the Octagon on his road back to the title, a rising heavyweight takes on a fan favorite but fading contender in Roy Nelson, two former Strikeforce fighters square off with title contention or irrelevancy on line, and two top 10 flyweights will meet in what is perhaps the most relevant fight on the show in terms of an immediate title contender. In the last of our panel picks, two former welterweights move down a weight class in an effort to jumpstart their careers. All of this AND Mickey Gall facing the King of Pop to get a chance to face former WWE Champion CM Punk in the summer!
Here’s our panel with the 2016 records in parenthesis. We’ve also added a running tally of the records of the favorites going into the fights and the panel consensus picks:
John Pollock (11-4; .733) – Fight Network analyst, Live Audio Wrestling co-host, MMA Report co-host
Mike Sawyer (10-5; .667) – Tough Talk MMA
Josh Nason (10-5; .667) – Host of Josh Nason’s Punch Out; writer/editor WrestlingObserver.com , WON Twitter guy
Steve Juon (9-6; .600) – MMA Mania/Wrestling Observer writer. Angry Marks founder
Mike Sempervive (9-6; .600) – Wrestling Observer Live and Big Audio Nightmare co-host
Ryan Frederick (9-6; .600) – WrestlingObserver.com UFC reporter, WON Twitter guy
Consensus picks (8-6; .571)
Favorites (8-7; .533)
Dave Meltzer (8-7; .533)– Wrestling Observer founder
Front Row Brian (7-8; .467) – MMA newsbreaker, beloved internet personality, Podcast host
Paul Fontaine (7-8; .467) – MMADraws.com founder, WrestlingObserver.com writer
David Bixenspan (7-8; .467) – Figure Four Weekly writer, podcast host
Johny Hendricks (17-3) vs Steven Thompson (11-1) Welterweights
Remember Johny Hendricks? The guy who’s struggled the last couple of years with his weight? The guy who took GSP to the limit in his final fight, with many believing he actually won the fight? The guy who had a 2 fight, 10 round series with Robbie Lawler that was as even as it could possibly be, coming out of the end of it without his title? Ya, that guy. He’s back and taking on a Karate fighter with a lot of hype and an impressive record and he’s out to prove that he should get the next shot at the 170 lb title. Thompson can knock out anyone with his kicks out of nowhere and this should be a great main event. It’s the first time Hendricks has fought on free TV in almost four years in an interesting note. Our panel does not think there’s much of a doubt in this one.
Roy Nelson (20-12) vs Jared Rosholt (14-2) Heavyweights
For the 2nd straight week, we have Heavyweights squaring off in the co-main event. Nelson was the TUF 10 champion, which seems like eons ago. In more recent times, he’s lost 6 of his last 7 fights but he’s also fought guys ranked ahead of him for the most part. Rosholt has the exact opposite UFC record, going 6-1 against mostly guys at or below his level although he did score a win over big Stefan Struve in his last fight. But he’s done so in non-typical Heavyweight fashion, grinding out decision wins in all but one of those fights. With a win over Nelson, he’ll likely move into the top 10 and start facing guys at the top of the division.
Nelson (moderate favorite): Sempervive, Sawyer, Pollock, Frederick, Meltzer Rosholt: Nason, Front Row Brian, Juon, Fontaine, Bix
Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante (12-6) vs Ovince St Preux (18-7) Light Heavyweights
Feijao has struggled since coming over from Strikeforce when UFC absorbed the company in 2013. He’s got just one win in 4 UFC fights and this won’t get any easier for him tonight. OSP has fought twice as many times in the same time frame and has a 6-2 record, which propelled him into the top 10. His last 5 wins have all been by finish, with 4 of them coming in the first round. It’s unlikely that either of these guys will ever contend for a title but there should be some great action here. Once again, there’s no doubt amongst our panel that OSP will emerge victorious.
Joseph Benavidez (23-4) vs Zach Makovsky (19-6) Flyweights
If flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson didn’t exist, Benavidez would be unbeaten in the UFC and in fact going back to a split decision loss to current Bantamweight Champion Dominick Cruz in WEC in 2010. Sandwiched around his 11 wins in that time are two losses to Johnson. It’s tough to justify giving him a third shot at the belt but Benavidez is doing what he can to make that happen. His opponent, Makosvsky, should be someone he can handle as he comes in with losses in 2 of his last 3 fights. Benavidez really has almost nothing to gain here with a win but everything to lose.
Josh Burkman (27-12) vs KJ Noons (13-8) Lightweights
Burkman has had some fun fights since returning to UFC but unfortunately for him, he’s failed to score a victory and has been finished his last two times out. This has led him to make the drop to 155 lbs for the first time in his career as he hopes to get back on the winning track. In fact, his last UFC win was in 2007 and since that time, he’s lost 6 times in the Octagon (with one later being changed to a no-contest). Noons has fought 2 of his last 3 fights at Welterweight but returns to his more familiar weight class here. The former Elite XC Lightweight Champion is one of only two fighters to have KO’d Nick Diaz and has the power to stop anyone in the division.
Another week, another UFC fight card, this time coming from Las Vegas, Nevada. UFC Fight Night 82 is headlined by a welterweight bout between Johny Hendricks and Stephen Thompson, and below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when making your DraftKings line-up for the event.
STUDS
Mickey Gall ($10,900)
It seems odd that putting a fighter with a 1-0 record making his UFC debut as a top play for fantasy, but Mickey Gall is a top play on this card. He’s fighting Mike Jackson, who is making his professional debut and hasn’t had an amateur MMA fight in some time (he has done boxing and kickboxing bouts though). Gall has a date set against C.M. Punk should he get past Jackson, and he should. Gall doesn’t have the technical skills that make him ready for UFC competition, which is why he gets a debut opponent. This fight is set up for Gall to get a win and move onto Punk, and he probably score a finish as well. Gall is a solid play on the day.
Ovince Saint Preux ($10,700)
Ovince Saint Preux is looking to rebound from a disappointing loss to Glover Teixeira in August, and he has a perfect match-up against Rafael Cavalcante on Saturday night. Cavalcante has seemed to regress over the years due to drug suspensions and injuries, and he either knocks his opponent out or gets knocked out. Saint Preux hasn’t suffered a knockout loss in over six years, and he’s much more talented now. Saint Preux is a finisher, winning his last five fights by finish, and he’s got the reach, height and overall advantage over Cavalcante. He likely finishes him inside of two rounds, so he is a very good play on the night.
VALUE PLAYS
Stephen Thompson ($9,000)
Stephen Thompson is rising in the welterweight division, winning five straight fights and looking very impressive in them. He gets the biggest test of his career against Johny Hendricks in the main event, and he has some good value at his salary. That has to do with the bout going five rounds, and I see it going the full 25 minutes. Whether he can win is the big question as Hendricks will likely do enough on the feet and get takedowns to win. Thompson can win the fight if he can keep it on the feet, but that’s a question. I see him as a risk, but he has excellent value in a fight that can go 25 minutes.
Justin Scoggins ($8,900)
Justin Scoggins has a tough fight against Ray Borg, but both are solid prospects in the flyweight division who have exciting fights. Scoggins has been a finisher in his career, scoring seven of his ten wins by finish. He only has one UFC win by finish, and Borg is a tough fighter to finish. The difference in salaries between the two seems a little long, but Borg has been on a solid streak lately while Scoggins is just 1-2 in his last three. His salary makes him a good value pick as he has a good chance at scoring an upset over Borg and it will allow you to spend bigger for your roster.
FIGHTERS TO AVOID
Artem Lobov ($9,800)
Artem Lobov scored a whopping one point in his UFC debut against Ryan Hall. Over the course of 15 minutes, he landed two significant strikes. That is it. He is not a UFC caliber fighter, but he gets a second chance against Alex White. It is less than two months after the bout against Hall and in a lower weight class. White is just 1-2 in the UFC, but won his first ten career fights and nine came by stoppage. Lobov is durable and likely won’t be finished, but I don’t see much upside in him or him even getting the win. I recommend avoiding him at all costs.
Mike Pyle ($9,400)
Mike Pyle is a veteran fighter, but as he has just turned 40-years-old, it is likely that his career has seen better days. He has lost three of his last four fights, and he was finished quickly in two of those losses. He faces Sean Spencer on Saturday night, and Spencer is a grinder type fighter who can be a sneaky finisher. He hasn’t finished anyone inside the Octagon yet, though, but Pyle’s chin may not be what is used to be. At worst, it will be a grinding affair and Spencer will have the advantage if it goes to the scorecards. Pyle will be a fighter we will be avoiding in our line-ups.
OUR LINE-UPS
RYAN FREDERICK- Mickey Gall ($10,900), Ovince Saint Preux ($10,700), Johny Hendricks ($10,400), K.J. Noons ($9,300), Zach Makovsky ($8,600)
I’m going with Mickey Gall to finish Mike Jackson. There isn’t a lot of research you can do one a guy with one professional bout and two amateur bouts, but the fight is what it is, and I think he gets the finish of Jackson. Ovince Saint Preux has huge upside in his fight against Rafael Cavalcante. Saint Preux is a finisher and he should get one against a fading opponent. Johny Hendricks was a tough choice, but I think the main event goes the distance and he gets the decision on a lot of takedowns, and those score points. K.J. Noons hits hard and with a lot of volume, and Josh Burkman has been a huge disappointment in his UFC return. Noons has a very good chance of getting a finish of Burkman, who has been finished in his last two fights. With my remaining salary, I’m going with Zach Makovsky. Honestly, I don’t think he will beat Joseph Benavidez, but I don’t see him getting finished, which says a lot about the rest of the fighters left with the remaining salary I had. Just going 15 minutes, however the fight goes, should get me more than the rest of the bunch.
PAUL FONTAINE- Ray Borg ($10,500), Johny Hendricks ($10,400), Damian Grabowski ($9,700), Artem Lobov ($9,800), KJ Noons ($9,300)
If last week is any indication, your best bet is probably to pick the opponents of everyone on my team. That said, it’s a new week so let’s try this again. Hendricks has lost two fights in the last 5 years and both of those were questionable. He’s a lock in my book to either score an early KO or win a grinding decision in which he lands a lot of strikes. Grabowski is making his UFC debut but is very experienced and a submission expert. I like him to score a quick stoppage win over Derrick Lewis. Ray Borg has finishing ability at 125, rare for the division. At just 22, he’s a future title challenger and this could be his coming out party. Lobov has a lot of power for the featherweight division and his opponent, Alex White, is susceptible to the KO. After his embarrassing performance at the TUF finale, I like Lobov to rebound here. Noons is a KO specialist and I think the weight cut is going to affect his opponent Josh Burkman more. Burkman hasn’t won since returning to UFC and I don’t think that will change here.
PEACH MACHINE- Ovince Saint Preux ($10,700), Johny Hendricks ($10,400), Artem Lobov ($9,800), Derrick Lewis ($9,700), Jared Rosholt ($9,200)
Another 4-1 week last week. I like my picks again, but this time I went with a couple of heavyweights from which I usually shy away. Derrick Lewis is a monster and I’m banking on an early KO… Same thing with Rosholt. Nelson has lost three in a row and while his heart will still be there, his chin won’t… OSP should be able to take Cavalcante down and beat him that way. That’s the template to win. Should OSP decide to make this a stand up battle, that’s trouble for him… Hendricks better be on his game or he’s done at 170. I’m thinking he’ll get inside and touch Thompson’s chin and get the finish at some point in five rounds… The template to beat Lobov is Ryan Hall. Alex White is not Ryan Hall. Lobov by KO.
