WWE announced their Q3 2015 earnings Thursday morning of $0.14 per share, beating Capital IQ Consensus of $0.08 per share. During the period of July 2015 to September 2015, WWE brought in $166.2 million in revenue while third quarter operating income was $17.9 million and adjusted OIBDA was $23.4 million.
Compared to the financial turbulence of 2014, this was a successful quarter with the highest adjusted OIBDA on record since Q2 of 2012. However, this good news wasn’t reflected in the WWE share price which hdropped more than 10% since the market opened Thursday morning.
The key drivers for WWE growth have been the recognition of the escalating television rights which WWE negotiated in 2014 and the evolution of the WWE Network subscription model.
Television Rights
WWE has secured large growth from a bundle of key TV contracts (United States, United Kingdom, India, Thailand, Canada, Mexico and United Arab Emirates). Combined, these agreements were worth almost three-quarters of WWE’s total 2014 television rights revenue ($176M). In the latest earnings release, WWE finally provided an outline of the annual escalation expected for these contracts for 2015 & 2016.
Already, WWE has earned $175.5M year-to-date on television rights fees in 2015 compared to a nine-month number of $126.3M in 2014. While 39% annual growth is impressive, it’s worth noting that the plunge in WWE stock value last year was tied to WWE underdelivering against investor expectations for renegotiating their major US deal with NBC Universal. In fact, some investors felt so misled that lawsuits were filed.
Nevertheless, television rights remain the economic engine for WWE’s year-round growth. While some divisions have seasonal fluctuations (live events during the WrestleMania quarter, WWE Shop in December, licensing in Q1), WWE’s television rights contracts are structured so they continue to grow each quarter through the deal. Quarterly variations are largely driven by the scheduling of supplemental programming such as WWE’s reality shows Total Divas and Tough Enough, both which aired in Q3 of ’15. While these additional programs bring in additional money and possible new audience/demographics, it was noted during today’s conference call that the cost of production for reality shows was much higher than the “in-ring” entertainment.
One topic that was not addressed during today’s call is the ongoing dispute between WWE and their new television partner in Thailand, CTH, which owes several million to WWE.
Recently, live WWE ratings have been their lowest levels since 1997.
Yet, WWE’s television rights agreements are not tied to weekly ratings. Still, there are several reasons that ratings still remain a relevant component in evaluating the WWE business model.
First of all, NBC Universal does care about their television ratings. They’ve earmarked hundreds of millions of the dollars to pay WWE with a relationship largely built on the history that WWE can deliver large weekly audiences and in turn, a boosting of value for cable channels such as USA Network and SyFy Network. Indeed, NBCU is planning to move WWE’s SmackDown from SyFy to the USA during Q1 of ’16. If Raw stops being able to deliver the eyeballs, the WWE’s value to NBCU’s portfolio may greatly diminish.
Second, advertisers care about ratings. One of the interesting elements in today’s Q3 press release was a note that “37 new advertisers were secured for WWE programming following NBCUniversal’s upfront”. Largely, this advertising money would not be going directly to WWE, but rather NBCU. In some cases, WWE may directly benefit as advertisers may decide to integrate the advertising into the WWE programming (such as sponsorship of PPVs or in-program ads). Either way, the ability of WWE to combat the negative profile and low advertising revenue that professional wrestling has historically garnered is one of WWE’s key initiatives. WWE’s decision to pursue “PG” programming and go after blue-chip sponsors such as General Mills and Kraft is built around improving their image among advertisers.
Lastly, in order to gain and retain subscribers for the WWE Network, WWE needs to create new fans, create new superstars, and monetize their audience. Declining ratings demonstrate diminishing interest in the WWE.
Live Monday night Raw viewership was under 4,000,000 hourly viewers throughout July-September 2015. This was a significant drop in July (-11%) and September (-14%). WWE’s own numbers don’t fully reflect this, likely because WWE is including delayed +3/+7 day viewing and DVR consumption. When questioned about the drooping ratings during the conference call, Chief Strategy & Financial Officer George Barrios brushed off the concern, stating that the company looks at the totality instead of just one metric, reaffirming that WWE feels they are bigger and engaging with their audience globally more than ever before.
For the time being, WWE is locked in lucrative television rights deals which will continue to pay out generously for several more years. The true test will be come when it’s time for WWE to negotiate their centamillion dollar contracts. Has the “live events” rights bubble burst? Is cord cutting taking its toll? What will the media ecosystem (to borrow one of Barrios’ new favorite terms) look like in 2018-19 when WWE is looking for television partners? Obviously, no one really knows.
WWE Network
As of September 30, 2015, the WWE Network had 1,233,000 paid subscribers. This number was up 6.6% from last quarter’s ending total of 1,156,100 paid subscribers. This actually exceeded the guidance WWE provided during last quarter’s press release of 1.2 million paid subscribers as of 9/30, growing 3-5% above 6/30 levels.
Over Q3 ’15, WWE averaged 1,173,000 paid subscribers, down 3.4% from Q2’15 average of 1,215,170 paid subscribers.
Overall, the WWE Network revenue for the third quarter of 2015 was about the same as the second quarter of 2015 at $36M. About one-third of the growth in subscribers came from international subscribers (+26,200, +12%). There were 50,700 additional domestic subscribers though the rate of growth in the United States which was only about 5%.
Since the launch of the WWE Network, there is a general subscription trend emerging. The peak for interest and acquiring new subscribers is during the first quarter in the Royal Rumble to WrestleMania season. Then, the remainder of the year is a gentle curve with slight variations which, thus far, have depended mostly on the external factors such as bringing online new external marketplaces.
In the past week, WWE has announced three new launches for the WWE Network: India (November 2015), Japan (January 2016), and Germany (January 2016).
WWE Network will go live in the Indian subcontinent (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, Maldives, and Afghanistan) on November 2. The service will cost $9.99 USD and pay-per-view events will be blacked-out for 24 hours before being available on the WWE Network. While Barrios is clearly excited about the prospect (he spoke of “long tailwind” in India), it’s questionable how many new subscribers the service will attract considering the PPV-restrictions, the relevant high cost and broadband reliance (as opposed to specific mobile solutions that other streaming companies have adopted in that marketplace).
The announcement of the WWE Network launches in Germany and Japan for January 2016 fill in noticeable gaps in WWE Network coverage across developed nations. However, even Barrios admitted during the conference call that the consumption and ARPU (average revenue per user) of pay-TV in Germany was much lower than other countries such as the United States and United Kingdom. Likewise, Japan has historically been a weak pay-per-view marketplace. Even the native New Japan World over-the-top streaming service has only a small foothold in the country.
International markets certainly represent an important piece to growing the WWE Network. Still, about 80% of subscribers are have registered domestic accounts and it’s clear that the key marketplace for the WWE Network is still North America.
In the conference call, WWE did affirm that they are refocusing their efforts in China. Barrios noted that WWE has been investing in growing their business in China since 2007 through distributing content on local TV stations to build audiences. He also mentioned that WWE is reshaping their strategy in China to recognize the rapid changes in the “media ecosystem” in that country, and the emphasis in China’s new five-year plan towards investing in sport & entertainment. They’re planning to expand their Shanghai office. As always, WWE teased that they’re exploring launching the WWE Network in China somewhere down the line without getting into any specifics.
Quarterly, WWE Network churn remains large. In Q3 ’15, the WWE Network lost 376,000 subscribers (2nd highest quarter yet) and gained 453,000 subscribers (3rd highest quarter). Regarding churn, Barrios said that the plan was making great original content and improving the user experience and user interface. It will also be interesting to see what impact new programs such as selling pre-paid three-month gift cards at Walmart has on WWE Network subscription numbers and churn.
Other
The WWE Home Entertainment division continues to profitably limp onwards with $3.0M in quarterly sales and $1.3M in quarterly OIBDA for Q3 ’15. While Home Entertainment sales have been sliding downwards for the past several years, WWE did flood the marketplace in recent months in the bargain bins with discount $3/$5 discs such as 2012’s “Rock vs. Cena Once in a Lifetime” which is the second-highest selling title of 2015 thus far behind WrestleMania 31.
Live event attendance remains flat for North America (5,100/event, same as Q3’14) while Q3 ’15 had stronger international results (8,900 for 6 international events). However, “adverse changes in foreign exchange” offset most of the expected revenue increase.
Licensing continues to be a strong performer in 2015. A large contributor has been video game revenue, especially from WWE SuperCard downloadable content and the WWE Immortals mobile video game.
An interesting note that WWE’s Night of Champions, with Sting challenging Seth Rollins for the WWE title, was up almost 60% in total PPV buys versus last September’s event that featured John Cena vs Brock Lesnar.
However, the true lesson on WWE pay-per-views is that there is still 31,000 domestic households that are buying full price PPVs each month though the majority of buys are from international customers.
As always, WWE brags about their Digital Media footprint (VOD presence and Social Media Followers) on every call. As Barrios loves to say, “we’re going to get our unfair share of that viewership.” He believes that where the eyeballs go, the money will follow. Digital media for Q3 ’15 was $5.8M, buoyed by higher advertising revenues. It’s clear that the company views digital media as an integral part of their engagement strategy with primarily short-form video content being available on Facebook and YouTube. WWE is certain a superstar at making things trend on Twitter, but they’ve got a long way to go before they will be seriously monetizing this medium.
Looking Forward
The remaining quarter (Q4 ’15) will include about 90 hours of new original content (compared to 85 hours in Q3’15). New programs will include the recent premiere of Breaking Ground, NXT Takeover: London from Wembley Arena, new episodes of WWE 24 and new episodes of the popular Stone Cold Podcast. Some analysts questioned whether WWE should be spending so much money on creating new content, but WWE officers defended the strategy, stating that they believed this content had a long tail effect and generated a lot of interest.
WWE did provide an estimate for Q4 ’15 WWE Network paid subscriptions (approximately flat to Q3’15 at 1.2 million), and were surprisingly cagey about putting out predictions for WWE Network in 2016.
To quote the press release, “Regarding WWE Network, given the inherent uncertainty of this nascent and growing business, management will not provide guidance for 2016 subscriber levels. However, the Company has evaluated other successful subscription businesses and observed a wide range of subscriber growth rates in the early stages of their development.”
However, WWE then went on to point out that Netflix grew at an annual rate of 22% in their early days and that growing 20-25% for the WWE Network would be “very strong performance”. Surprisingly, many analysts on the conference call actually challenged WWE’s numbers as being too conservative since WWE Network is a worldwide service while Netflix was originally only a domestic service. While the Q1 peak for the WWE Network next year will likely be higher than Q1 ’15 (1.327M paid), it seems ambitious to assume that WWE would be able to average a full 1,500,000 paid subscribers throughout the entirety of 2016.
Even WWE confirmed internal expectations that 80% of the growth in the coming year would still be domestic and in light of flat live event numbers and sagging ratings, WWE Network’s crystal ball remains very opaque.
Overall, the state of the WWE is solid. They have escalating television rights, a profitable WWE Network service, and a growing digital media footprint. However, the fundamentals for interest (ratings, attendance) still seem stuck in a general malaise. The company has rebounded from a tough 2014 and transformed from pay-per-view to over-the-top. Next year, we’ll see the continued roll-out of the WWE Network, the re-launch of the joint venture TapouT brand, an enormous WrestleMania 32, and the continued rise of the NXT brand. It should be interesting.
Ring of Honor set its all-time record last night on Destination America, doing 227,000 viewers at 11 p.m. This blows away the previous time slot record for the promotion of 175,000 set on the 10/7 show.
TNA last night did 266,000 viewers for the 9 p.m. show, and another 98,000 viewers for the replay. The first showing was the third lowest for the show’s first-run, but the replay was up from usual levels, probably because the ROH show gave them a far stronger lead-in than usual.
The ratings for Destination America are even more important now because both groups deals are coming due, with ROH’s deal up in early December. With new people in charge of the network, the long-term status of wrestling on the station is currently under evaluation.
Former WWE Champion Brock Lesnar will be wrestling on a major house show on Dec. 19 at the Forum in Los Angeles, CA.
The match is part of his new contract where, besides a few PPV and television shows, he agreed to work scattered house shows. In the past, all of his house show appearances (July at Sumo Hall in Tokyo against Kofi Kingston and October in Madison Square Garden against Big Show) also became WWE Network live special events.
WWE has not run the Forum in recent memory as the L.A. Sports Arena, Honda Center and Staples Center have been the venues of choice in the Los Angeles and Orange County area over the last two decades.
There is advertising out listing both John Cena and Lesnar for the 12/19 date, indicatating Cena will be returning a week before his prior first advertised date of Dec. 26 as MSG, making this a pretty big house show.
First of all, an early Happy Birthday to your favorite NXT recapper and mine: me! But before I turn 31 tomorrow, let’s talk about NXT tonight.
Emma submitted Shazza
We kick things off with Diva’s action. It is the debut of Shazza, who is replacing Alexa Bliss as the cute little pixie-looking girl. Shazza has white-blonde hair and is not nearly as tan as the other girls, so it is shocking to the eyes when they show a closeup of her. Shazza is also from Melbourne and they pushed that she is the last person Emma wrestled before coming to NXT.
Shazza went down into the splits for a drop down spot, but when she didn’t get right up, Emma waited for her to look up and dropkicked her in the face. This match was all Emma and she won the Battle of Australia with a bridging chinlock.
– Last week James Storm cut a promo with Tom Phillips after his debut match. Storm was quite happy that the fans chanted he belonged here. If anyone doesn’t like him being in NXT, sorry about their damn luck.
– We got a Finn Balor video package, featuring interviews with a lot of the NXT fans. They also used footage from the Balor documentary they did back in June.
Jason Jordan & Chad Gable defeated Tommaso Ciampa & Johnny Gargano
Jordan and Gable got a standing ovation from the crowd, which was weird since they are heels. They do love them some Gable. Ciampa and Gable began. They did the spot where they did a Greco Roman Knuckle Lock and Ciampa forced Gable down, but Gable bridged up, but was unable to hold Ciampa up when he jumped on him.
The fans love Gargano, Ciampa and Jordan as well, but they like Gable the most. They chanted Johnny Wrestling and This is Wrestling, in addition to chanting both Gable and Jordan to the tune of Kurt Angle’s WWE theme.
This was an excellent tag team match. Despite technically being the heel team Gable was the one they beat on to get the heat. Jordan got the hot tag and ran wild on both men, including a t-bone suplex on Ciampa. Gargano had the match won with a slingshot DDT on Jordan, but Gable broke it up at the last second. Finally Jordan & Gable won with their toss into a Bridging Side Suplex on Ciampa.
That was the best match on a regular NXT tv show in months.
– Bayley was interviewed by the departing Devin Taylor about her feud with Alexa Bliss. Bayley is proud to be champion and be an inspiration to children and that it bothers her that that bothers Alexa.
– Eva Marie is still in Paris and she is threatening to come back soon.
Nia Jax destroyed Kaylee
They acknowledged Nia being the cousin of The Rock. Kaylee got frequent flier miles for the amount she flew when Nia threw her across the ring in this match. Nia traded in the jumping bear hug for the jumping Over The Shoulder Backbreaker, which still wasn’t her finish. The finish saw Kaylee springboard off the ropes, but get caught, dropped with a spinebuster and Nia won with a legdrop.
During the commercial, I assume they sent out a giant spatula to get Kaylee off the mat.
Enzo Amore & Colin Cassady vs Dash & Dawson never got started
If it feels like you’ve read me talk about this match before, it’s because they just wrestled last week. Enzo and Cass won, but got beaten down after. Enzo and Cass were walking to the ring when they were attacked by Dash & Dawson. They threw Enzo off the ramp and began working on Colin, including executing a double team maneuver to Colin’s leg.
After the match a parade of referees and trainers came out to check on Colin. No one checked on Enzo, who was in a heap on the floor.
– Alexa Bliss challenged Bayley to a 6-person tag team match and wished her luck at finding two losers to team with her.
– Next week: Finn Balor vs Apollo Crews for the NXT Championship. That announcement led to part 2 of the Who Is Apollo Crews feature. I know this goes without saying, but WWE puts together some amazing videos.
Samoa Joe submitted Tyler Breeze
Main event time. This match was set up two weeks ago when Samoa Joe eliminated Tyler Breeze during the battle royal and Breeze, frustrated, pulled Joe out as well. They did show footage of Breeze’s SmackDown debut. His best chance of success is if Vince recently watched Zoolander. In all seriousness, good luck to Tyler.
Breeze’s strategy early was to tease locking up with Joe and then quickly roll outside, which annoyed Joe to the point that Joe followed him out the third time. Of course Joe got stomped on when they rolled back in the ring. Joe used his Suicide Dive, which never fails to look impressive when the big man does it.
Breeze used his rolling backstabber on Joe, but only got a 1 count. Shouldn’t that move hurt Breeze when Joe rolls over and lands with 280 pounds on his scrunched up body? Anyway Joe made his comeback, hitting all his big moves. We saw the snap power slam and the corner uranage, but Breeze slipped out of the Muscle Buster and hit a Super Model Kick for a 2 count. The finish saw Breeze use a rollup for a 2 count and when Joe kicked out, Breeze landed in position for the Coquina Clutch.
– The show ended with a Finn Balor promo regarding his title match next week. Balor put over Crews beating Joe, Breeze and Baron Corbin in the battle royal, but the one person he did not defeat was Finn. One day Crews will be NXT Champion, but Finn vowed it will not be next week.
So that does it for this week. Next week it is Finn Balor vs Apollo Crews for the NXT Title and with that in mind, until then remember to say your vitamins and take your prayers!
Even with a weak NFL Monday Night football game, no World Series competition, and coming the day after a strong Hell In A Cell show, the WWE Raw ratings for 10/26 showed no improvement over recent weeks.
Last night’s show did 3.34 million viewers, the same level as it has been doing since the NFL season started. The Arizona Cardinals vs. Baltimore Ravens game did 12.20 million viewers, below the season average, so the competition was the easiest WWE has had on Monday night in weeks.
RAW had its biggest first hour since football season started, a huge drop in the second hour, but the third hour featuring the WWE World title #1 contender’s match with Roman Reigns vs. Alberto Del Rio vs. Kevin Owens vs. Dolph Ziggler was the best in five weeks.
The three hours were:
8 p.m. 3.64 million viewers 9 p.m. 3.21 million viewers 10 p.m. 3.21 million viewers
Despite the low expectations going in, WWE Hell in a Cell turned out to be a surprisingly entertaining show. It also may prove to be one of the year’s more significant specials as it saw the rubber match between The Undertaker and Brock Lesnar, as well as the end of John Cena US Title Open Challenge. It also hopefully brought the curtain down on The New Day vs. Dudley Boys, Bray Wyatt vs. Roman Reigns and Seth Rollins vs. Kane rivalries that had dominated WWE television for many, many months.
That of course raises the question as to what matches the WWE should make for next month’s Survivor Series. So let’s play booker and give creative some unsolicited advice.
Undertaker, Kane, Randy Orton and Finn Balor vs. The Wyatt Clan
Hell in a Cell ended with The Undertaker being attacked by The Wyatt Clan. Most have assumed that this beatdown was the start of the build to a Team Undertaker vs. Team Wyatt elimination match. I’m not convinced that this is the case as The Wyatts dragging The Phenom to the back could easily be a set-up for a brainwashed Undertaker being used by the Wyatts to continue their feud with Roman Reigns. Given that such storylines have always failed when tried, and Reigns would be roundly booed against The Undertaker, this would be a mistake.
If we assume that we are getting elimination match we have to consider who will team with The Deadman. Presumably the first pick would be the newly non-corporate Kane, while Randy Orton has a clear storyline rationale for fighting the Wyatts. As for the fourth man it would be a nice nod to The Undertaker’s superstar debut back in 1990 if the match was used to highlight a new talent. The obvious person would be Finn Balor whose ‘demon’ character is thematically similar to the Brothers of Destruction and is too talent a performer to be kept in NXT when the main roster is so struggling in terms of talent depth.
WWE Champion Seth Rollins vs. Roman Reigns
With his victory over Kane, Seth Rollins has hopefully put behind him the on-off rivalry that has done so much to define him as a whiny mid-carder in the eyes of the fans. However it doesn’t change the fact that Rollins has been booked into oblivion. Indeed, it’s now more than two months since it became clear that he has been the biggest failure as WWE Champion (as opposed to the subordinate World Title that Great Khali, Rey Mysterio and Jack Swagger held) since at least Kevin Nash in 1995.
All fans know that Rollins has failed as a champion and we all believe that WWE will have Roman Reigns replace him eventually. Rather than keep Rollins as a lame-duck champion and Reigns as a directionless challenger it’s time to take the plunge. Given the lack of fresh babyfaces for Rollins to face and credible heels to keep Reigns occupied, there are very few good alternatives.
Indeed the only thing I could think of would be Seth Rollins vs. Triple-H, and Roman Reigns and Dean Ambrose challenging for the tag team titles. I personally wouldn’t do that as Triple-H should be saved to put over Roman Reigns, and The New Day are not a serious enough act to be credible against Reigns and Ambrose.
U.S. Champion Alberto Del Rio vs. Jack Swagger or Cesaro
The WWE managed to actually end the John Cena United States Open Challenge with a nice surprise, as Alberto Del Rio returned to dethrone the departing champion. Del Rio could be a real difference maker second time around, as if the promotion can effectively work the reasons behind his controversial departure into the storylines he has could finally be the Latino heavyweight babyface superstar they’ve long been searching for.
So of course they shackled him with Zeb Coulter as manager! Because in an era where the Hispanic backlash against anti-immigration politics fuelled a USA-Mexico soccer match to record ratings, it makes perfect sense to align your only high-profile Hispanic wrestler with someone whose character has long been defined by his opposition to immigration.
The best way out of this mess is for Del Rio to turn on Coulter tomorrow, bragging about tricking the old man into securing him the title shot. Whether they do that or not, Zeb’s involvement makes either Jack Swagger or Antonio Cesaro the logical opponent for Del Rio’s first defence.
Intercontinental Champion Kevin Owens vs. Sheamus / Tag Team Champions The New Day vs. Wade Barrett & Neville
Both Kevin Owens and The New Day scored decisive victories over their long-term rivals at Hell in a Cell. However given the state of the WWE’s mid-card it’s hard to see who could easily step up and feud with them over the next few weeks. So my advice would be to play the location game and program both champions against the promotion’s three leading British and Irish pro-wrestlers to help flesh out the undercards on the promotion’s upcoming overseas tour.
Barrett has been publicly pushing to team with Neville and the two men would have the ‘Big-Man, Little-Man’ dynamic that would mesh well against Big-E and Kofi Kingston. Meanwhile, Sheamus is the type of upper-mid-carder that should be putting over Kevin Owens to give the Intercontinental Champion credibility.
And finally…what about Brock Lesnar!?!
After Brock Lesnar vs. Undertaker ‘III’ proved to be a fight worthy of headlining Wrestlemania 32, the question of what blockbuster match justified bringing it forward is still a mystery. To be more precise we still do not know where Brock Lesnar goes from here -a multi-million dollar question if ever there was one.
Will Cooling is a freelance writer who covers combat sports for Fighting Spirit Magazine, pop culture for Geeky Monkey and politics at It Could Be Said! His work has also appeared on Comics Nexus, Inside Fights, Fox Sports and The New Statesman.
Witnessing a subtle moment transpire before your eyes in professional wrestling can give fans an incredibly powerful and satisfying feeling. Whether it be a spot in a match that’s a call back to a previous encounter, a sly nod or wink to the camera by a wrestler who knows we’re thinking what they’re thinking, or a line in a promo that indirectly references a moment from the past.
These small, easily missable minutiae are what keep longtime fans invested in the product. It’s like a reward for years of dedication and paying attention to detail. In comics it’s like discovering an easter egg: an in-joke/visual gag hidden in the book by the creator for the reader to find. They can easily go unnoticed, which makes finding one all that more rewarding.
NJPW and its cast of grapplers are good at incorporating these moments into matches and storylines, but at King of Pro Wrestling 2015, they decided to go a more straightforward route.
EVIL
Dragon Gate’s Punch Tominaga and Kzy had a love child, and it turned out to be EVIL. Well, no shock there really. What is a shock is that EVIL was revealed as Tetsuya Naito’s “pareja” during his match with Hiroshi Tanahashi at NJPW King of Pro Wrestling 2015. Formerly Takaaki Watanabe, the Young Lion on excursion in the US, most notably performing in ROH where he was just recently gaining some steam and an inkling of a following, EVIL was the last person expected to be revealed as Naito’s Ingobernable partner in crime.
As the moment of revelation drew nearer, puro detectives online were quick to eliminate potential names, such as fellow Ingobernable members Rush, La Sombra, and La Máscara. Kamaitachi was another name being thrown around but he too succumbed to the process of elimination. Ultimately, the man under the silver Guy Fawkes’esque mask turned out to be Takaaki Watanabe. If he was your pick, someone call Batman and tell him there’s a new detective in town. Also ask him what the deal is with the new “bunny ears” Batman suit while you’re at it.
Watanabe’s name did cross my mind as I was contemplating who the mystery man could be, but I quickly dismissed him, expecting rather a bigger name like one of the aforementioned Ingobernable members. Watanabe’s slow reveal was handled excellently, and added an extra layer of intrigue to the already high stakes match. As Naito made his entrance, he was followed by an identically garbed and masked man, then known only as his “pareja.” The “pareja” didn’t just copy Naito’s look, but also his walk and mannerisms. Even the hair protruding from the back of the mask looked the same.
As the match commenced, the “pareja” stood almost completely still, eyes locked intently on the ring. He didn’t even move when Tanahashi performed his High Fly Flow crossbody to Naito on the floor, forcing Tanahashi to leap over him onto Naito. When the ref took a bump, the “pareja” finally made his move, entering the ring and taking Tanahashi down with a lariat. He removed his mask to reveal his face to the crowd, who sat in silence, not recognising the former Young Lion whom they hadn’t seen for quite some time.
Those who follow ROH recognised Watanabe instantly, only recently seeing him on ROH TV. After the moment of shock wore off, the announcers realised the man in the ring with the darkened eyes and long, blonde and black streaked hair was the man they used to know as Watanabe. Naito and Watanabe beat down Tanahashi until Captain New Japan, who was cornering Tanahashi, and Meiyu Tag came out to make the save (well mostly just Meiyu Tag. The Captain was as always not so effective). The match continued and with the odds evened, Tanahashi came out on top. After the match, Meiyu Tag continued to brawl with Naito and Watanabe. Goto went after Watanabe, but was foiled by a very impressive STO.
In a post match interview, Naito revealed Watanabe’s new name, and here’s where we say goodbye to subtlety in New Japan. Watanabe’s new name is “King of Darkness (Style?)” EVIL. Yes, EVIL in all capital letters, because of course. It was also announced that Hirooki Goto would be facing EVIL at the upcoming Power Struggle event. That’s right, it’s Goto vs. EVIL.
That just feels so weird to say, and instantly makes me think of the hilarious film Tucker & Dale vs. Evil. Maybe in a promotion like DDT or BJW, or even Dragon Gate, where over the top characters and creative, if not absurd, matches and gimmicks are the norm, EVIL wouldn’t feel so out of place. But in New Japan, where for the most part pro wrestling is still treated as a legitimate sport, a wrestler with heavy eye makeup and a strong “forces of darkness’ vibe is glaringly outrageous. That probably explains why I love it so much. There’s a clear sense that New Japan has grown stale with its non-evolving top stars (barring Naito whose gradual transformation from Stardust Genius to Ingobernable has been one of the high points of the year.
A stark contrast to Watanabe’s sudden transformation) and lack of developing new top talent. EVIL brings something new to the table, something different to what we’re used to seeing in New Japan. At this point, different is very welcome.
But is it too different, too on the nose? I can’t think of a wrestler being given a name that has lacked this much subtlety. “Evil” Takaaki Watanabe? Sure! Nicknames are one thing, but to be flat out called EVIL is next level stuff. Then there’s the character itself. As I mentioned, if a character like EVIL debuted in Dragon Gate, say as a member of the former Mad Blankey, current VERSERK group, I probably wouldn’t bat an eye. I mean I’d probably think it was great because I have awful taste, but I wouldn’t be surprised by such an overtly cartoonish character. In New Japan, cartoonish characters are not the norm, though there is Kenny “The Cleaner” whom I’ll talk about shortly. I’m interested to see how traditional New Japan fans will respond to EVIL.
Kenny “The Scenery Chewer” Omega
EVIL isn’t the only one giving subtlety the big boot in New Japan. Kenny “The Cleaner” Omega seems to take his character to new a new level of scenery chewing excessiveness each match he has. At King of Pro Wrestling, Omega defended his IWGP Jr. title against Matt Sydal. I loved the match, with Sydal putting on, in my eyes, one of his most solid performances to date: Spectacular moves, great selling, and a good connection with the audience. Omega’s performance was also memorable, but for a different reason.
Omega’s villainous character is something straight out of a manga, mixed with a bit of 80’s action movie bad guy, and dash of Looney Tunes chaos, which can at times stretch the limit of the viewers suspension of disbelief. Personally, I think it’s the greatest. Ridiculousness is my thing if you haven’t noticed, hence my affection for DDT Pro. But is an IWGP title match the right place for such a performance? Traditionalists would likely say no. Others have mentioned that it’s not so much the over the top character they don’t like, it’s Omega’s delivery and believability. I doubt the Golden Globes are going to come calling anytime soon, but I’ve seen worse acting in pro wrestling. And Omega is capable of delivering a more understated performance. Omega was a key part in one of the most compelling moments of the year during the Kota Ibushi vs. A.J. Styles match at Invasion Attack 2015, and it was without saying a single word.
As Ibushi was setting up for the Phoenix Splash, Omega got on the apron and the two simply exchanged a look. A simple distraction that ended up costing Ibushi the match. Afterwards, as his Bullet Club colleagues celebrated, Omega’s expressions told us everything we needed to know (Sadly, all of this led to absolutely nothing, but there’s still hope). No actions, no words. That was a nuanced performance. Not sure when we’ll see one of those again.
HERO HEEL REVENGE
Rounding out the night’s theme is the video package that played before Naito and Tanahashi’s King of Pro Wrestling match. It was a very good video package, as they usually are in New Japan. If you were coming into the match unfamiliar with the two’s rivalry and G-1 history, the video painted a very clear picture. Perhaps a little too clear though, as they literally spelled out the theme of the match with giant, John Cena inspired fruity pebble coloured key words in all caps plastered on the screen: REVENGE, HERO, HEEL. Making the story of the match crystal clear to viewers is in no way a bad thing, and the big blocked words did make for a pretty neat visual
Having said that, I couldn’t help but chuckle a little at the imagery. Also, the use of the word “heel” was a little jarring. I don’t know if I’ve heard that kind of insider term used so blatantly in New Japan before.
I hope subtlety in professional wrestling is not a dying art, and that nuances and niceties are not being moved aside for large, brightly coloured key words and self-explanatory character names. Was King of Pro Wrestling simply a night of plainspoken character portrayals and storytelling, or a taste of what New Japan has in store for the future?
UFC: Fight Night 76 – AKA: The All Fight Pass Prelims Show
This show has zero star power, but a lot of potential for fun fights, and since the main card is virtually the same as the undercard in terms of name value, I’m going to score all the fights.
Changes to today’s event…
No longer will I be providing my Classic Ten score. I’ll only be reporting the official scores and results and my True Ten score and results. It’s too hard for me to try and score a fight in my head using two systems. It’s not that it’s physically difficult, but it can be tricky to objectively distinguish between the two. Remember, my system is simply the current system but using potential round scores of 10-10 all the way down to 10-5.
Questioning the Decision…
On our last event, we had one whacky decision. Well, more like a whacky circumstance. It occurred in the Tom Marcellino vs. Nick Newell fight. As you may remember, Newell is the one-armed fighter, and he won the fight This is how it was scored:
Official Results: Unanimous decision for Nick Newell (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Further Analysis: At the end of the second round, instead of the 10-second blocks being clacked, the timekeeper clanged the bell. This occurred just as Marcellino knocked down Newell and could have possibly finished. He didn’t because the ref stopped the round. During the confusion, the ref just decided that it was an error, and we’re moving on to round three. Upon the reading of the decision, Marcellino was pissed, and rightfully so. I think he could have a case if he protested, but he probably won’t. This was one of those fights that any score was possible as the first and the third were clear, but the second was a coin toss. Why not score it a draw?
Analysis: Easy pick here, but another example of a round that should have been a 10-8. The third round was dominated by Elkins, which included securing a rear naked choke with 5 seconds left but Whiteford just did not tap.
185: Krzysztof Jotko vs. Scott Askham
Official Result: Jotko by Split Decision
Judges: 29-28 Jotko, 29-28 Askham, 29-28 Jotko
True Ten: Rd1) 10-10 Rd2) 10-10, Rd3) 10-9 Jotko
Result: 30-29 Jotko
Analysis: Don’t be fooled by blood. Jotko maybe won the first round but barely because he was really close to being finished by that arm bar, which is why I gave it a 10-10. I don’t think Askham won a round, but I guess I’m wrong.
115: Aisling Daly vs. Ericka Almeida
Official Result: Aisling Daly by Unanimous Decision
Analysis: I loved this fight! Baby face fire by Daly was great in the third. Only one judge gave it a 10-8 third, which I thought it pretty clearly was as well. Two judges also gave Almeida the second, so Daly’s corner was right telling her she had to win the third. By the way, you should always tell your fighter that they need to win the third.
Analysis: Well, this was great a call. I figured it was going to be a unanimous decision for Till and I’d write my usual rant about not giving 10-8s, but two of these judges showed some guts because clearly the last round was a 10-8 for Dalby. It could have been stopped at least one time. Till got very lucky here.
155: Norman Parke vs. Reza Madadi
Official Result: Norman Parke by Unanimous Decision
This ended up being a good show, with a pretty dang good main event. The judging seems to be getting better with each passing show, and by better I mean judges are using more 10-8s. That’s a step in the right direction. Is it this column that is leaving an impression? My theory is yes.
WWE Hell in a Cell comes to you this Sunday night at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, California. Unlike a lot of the B-shows this year, the theme for this show seems to be wrapping up big feuds that have dominated WWE programing over the summer. Brock Lesnar and Undertaker will wrap up their trilogy, and Roman Reigns and Bray Wyatt will also finish what they started, with both matches being held inside the confines of Hell in a Cell. Meanwhile, John Cena continues his popular United States championship open challenge as he’s due to face an unnamed opponent. Will he overcome the odds, or will his challenger do a number on him, freeing him for the next couple of months? Our F4W/Wrestling Observer.com staff have weighed in, giving their thoughts on the full card. Check them out below.
Bryan Rose: It’s too early to take off Owens. Ryback is in this weird flux where WWE obviously likes the guy, but not too much, plus he’s not really that great of a wrestler so he’s constantly in these kind of matches but isn’t ever that effective in them. I think with Owens in the match this won’t be too bad, but I think it’ll be a notch below of what we usually see with him. He retains, and hopefully moves on to a more promising program.
Prediction – Kevin Owens
Jeremy Peeples: Owens’s previously-stalled push has regained some momentum with the IC Title so far. His win on Raw was one of the most impressive and memorable things on the show even if it wasn’t positioned as important. He should win this and continue his reign, but Ryback’s loss on Raw could be a slight indicator of a win for the Big Guy.
Prediction – Kevin Owens
Kyle S. Johnson: It would seem somehow anticlimactic for Owens to turn around and drop the Intercontinental Championship so soon after winning it. Still, using WWE logic, Owens beating Mark Henry cleanly (and in impressive fashion) on the same Raw where Ryback lost clean to Seth Rollins suggests the Big Guy will regain his championship on Sunday. The story of the feud has been Owens winning by less-than-scrupulous means, and I look for him to get another underhanded victory to retain his title. I would expect that this leads to either another rematch or a traditional Survivor Series match next month, the latter of which would hopefully result in Owens pairing off with someone else in a new feud.
Prediction – Kevin Owens
Zach Dominello: I want to say Owens over Ryback is a sure thing because dropping the belt this early in his run as IC champ would be incredibly deflating for everyone (except Ryback), but the the rule of opposite momentum has me worried. Owens looks strong coming into the match with a win over Mark Henry in one of the most enjoyable matches on Monday’s go-home show, while Ryback lost cleanly to Seth Rollins. l I say nuts to opposite momentum, and the rest of physics. I expect Ryback’s “injured ribs” will come into play and allow Owens to get the win. Plus with Owens getting some positive mainstream media attention in Quebec, it makes sense to keep the title on him.
Prediction – Kevin Owens
James Cox: After a smash and grab last month at Night of Champions, Kevin Owens should retain here, but I fear that this feud must continue. If you haven’t already, check out Ryback on Table for 3 with Daniel Bryan and Dolph Ziggler on the Network, it might change your views on him. Might. But there’s a ceiling on how good a match between these two can be in reality.
Prediction: Kevin Owens
Steve Khan: It feels like they’re going to drag out as many feuds as they can, but this shouldn’t be one of those feuds. Unlike Seth Rollins, Owens has a lot of potential challengers and will probably win here.
Prediction – Kevin Owens
Adam Stephen Kelly: Their match at Night of Champions was fine, if unremarkable. I enjoyed the psychology of Kevin Owens focusing on Ryback’s arm throughout. In fact, working over particular body parts seemed to be a theme of that show. I don’t mind Ryback at all, I think he’s decent for the role he plays on the roster, but this feud really doesn’t have anything going for it. Now is definitely not the time for Owens to drop the title, so hopefully he’ll retain in a more physical and hard-hitting match than their last, and the champ can move on to a more fitting opponent for his style.
Prediction – Kevin Owens
Paul Fontaine: These two are a really good pairing in my opinion and I think this program has a bit more life so I’m going to go against the grain here. Ryback is going to be more valuable going forward with Cena and Orton both out and I look for Owens to score the upset win and keep this program going through Survivor Series.
Bryan Rose: I’m guessing this is where the Dudleyz will finally win the tag titles. They really should have at the MSG show a few weeks ago, and it seemed like a lock, so in typical WWE fashion it didn’t happen and ended up being a lame DQ. They’ve been teasing on Smackdown that Xavier is gone, but I don’t see that happening long so I expect that to play a part in the match. I’m guessing Dudleyz win the titles, and the other two members of the New Day are put through tables as well.
Prediction – Dudley Boyz
Jeremy Peeples: The Dudleys probably should have won the titles in MSG if they were going to win this for this run. They’ve got far less momentum now, while the New Day is one of the company’s most over acts – and thus shouldn’t lose here. The New Day should win, but the Dudleys probably will to get the babyface pop and maybe start the show off hot.
Prediction – Dudley Boys
Adam Stephen Kelly: Let’s face it, the honeymoon period is over for the Dudleyz. It’s been terrific to see them back in WWE after nearly a decade “in obscurity”, but now the fanfare is over and they’re just another duo in an incredibly weak tag division. There was a glimmer of hope for tag team wrestling a couple of years ago with something of a renaissance in the division, but sadly it was short-lived, so it’s no surprise that one of the most successful tandems in history were immediately put into a feud with today’s hottest trio in the New Day. But where do you go from there? Where are the other credible teams? I think it’s safe to say that this rivalry has been dragged out long enough, and with the Dudleyz being screwed out of victories left, right and centre in the last couple of months, it’s time for them to win the titles. What I don’t understand is why this isn’t a Tables match. Surely with the sheer abundance of plunder we’ve seen since in this feud – and the fact that we’ve already seen this match on numerous occasions – it makes perfect sense, but I guess that will be the stipulation in the eventual rematch with the role reversal of the New Day hunting the gold.
Prediction – The Dudley Boyz
Kyle S. Johnson: That this is another championship match without a stipulation involving tables boggles my mind. Perhaps as mind-boggling: the decision to keep the belts on The New Day at the MSG special. The nostalgia buzz behind the Dudleys has been diminished through two months of chasing and consecutive DQ victories in title matches, and WWE not taking the opportunity of a match in front of a hot New York crowd to make the switch happen seems like a mistake. The New Day remains the most entertaining aspect of WWE programming on a weekly basis, enough so that they will survive just fine without the belts for a bit if need be. Since The Dudleys really have to win this match to stay relevant, they probably will, even if it’s about a month too late.
Prediction – The Dudley Boyz
Zach Dominello: As much as it saddens me, and despite the timing being off, I’m expecting the Dudleys to go over here. Of course, it would’ve made more sense for New Day to drop the titles to the Dudleys at MSG when the Dudleys still hot from their return, but making sense is not one of WWE’s top priorities. Fortunately, the New Day are talented and entertaining enough that dropping the titles won’t hurt them. Besides, if I’m thinking what WWE’s thinking, they won’t be completely titleless by the end of the night.
Prediction – The Dudley Boyz
James Cox: As great as The New Day are, it’s time for a title change here. The tug of war for the title can go on into Survivor Series but a tenth tag team title for The Dudley Boyz is the way to go here. If you don’t put the title on them here, you have to wonder where you go with them. Xavier Woods has been so great – if you’re at all interested, check out his color commentary work on Superstars, he’s clearly enjoying himself so much right now.
Prediction: The Dudley Boyz
Steve Khan: There are two ways to look at this. New Day can retain to keep them looking strong, or you can put the titles on the Dudleys to save their comeback run. Protecting a hot act is important, but New Day aren’t exactly the Shield and can afford to lose to keep this feud going. I can see the Dudleys having a short run leading up to a gimmick match, potentially at TLC in December, where New Day can defeat the tables/TLC experts and regain the titles. Also, they can be involved in a big 10-man match at Survivor Series to save us from seeing this match on a third straight PPV.
Prediction – The Dudley Boyz
Paul Fontaine – I picked the Dudley Boyz last month and obviously the prevailing opinion is that they win the titles here. I don’t know about that. The act has lost a ton of steam due to the popularity of the champs. If the Dudleys don’t win, it pretty much kills them but there aren’t really heel teams for the Dudleys to face. For that reason, I’m calling for the New Day to retain.
Bryan Rose: The divas title situation has been deflated big time in the last month. They get plenty of ring time, but they’re still being presented in the same way where they can’t possibly get over. This title program has been overshadowed by Paige turning heel and doing the crazy shtick that, in fact, did not get her over at all last year, so only makes sense to go back at it. This whole situation with Paige, plus the complete lack of build feels like it just doesn’t matter and to be it doesn’t matter who wins. Taking the title off Charlotte feels premature though, so I’m guessing she retains.
Prediction – Charlotte
Jeremy Peeples: They’ve done very little to build this up, so the result really doesn’t seem important. Charlotte has no reason to lose the title so soon, so I’ll go with her to win.
Prediction – Charlotte
Kyle S. Johnson: Incredibly, the Divas division is in complete disarray. The Nikki Bella vs. Charlotte feud seems to be an afterthought against the backdrop of the feud between Team Bella and Team BAD and Paige’s deal with Charlotte/Becky/Natty. With any luck, Charlotte will just win this match clean and convincingly, the team dynamic will continue to dissolve in the weeks thereafter, and the direction will eventually shift to Charlotte/Sasha/Becky feuding with one another for the title.
Prediction – Charlotte
Zach Dominello: Similarly to Kevin Owens, Charlotte dropping the title now would simply be the worst thing. So, that’ll probably happen. Preferably, Charlotte will retain and Team Bella will move away from the title picture allowing Charlotte to start a fresh program.
Prediction – Charlotte
James Cox: I see this as a grueling win for Charlotte, the blow off to segue into the next couple of contenders. Paige and Sasha Banks are lining up for their shot. I assume we see Paige come out at the end to show her intent. Let’s hope it’s half decent.
Prediction: Charlotte
Steve Khan: Nikki has been built up as a strong challenger, and even though the reasoning may be questionable, it’ll work out in the end if Charlotte wins. Charlotte feels cold as champion as the focus has been split too many different ways. They haven’t paid off the Natalya story yet, so Paige screwing Charlotte here doesn’t make sense and Nikki shouldn’t be champion. Charlotte should win and go over strong, and she probably will.
Prediction – Charlotte
Paul Fontaine – I’ll go with the gang here. It’s amazing that on an NXT show, I care most about the Women’s title but I couldn’t care less about this title at the moment. That’s what the main roster booking has done to both the title and Charlotte in particular. If Charlotte does retain, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to have her lose it on RAW in the next couple of weeks. The title will probably eventually end up on Sasha as a face but right now it sure seems like the champ retains.
Bryan Rose: This’ll be interesting for two reasons. One, the mystery guy aspect. Whoever it is, they’d need to take John Cena out long enough that it’d make sense storyline wise why he’d be out until late December. Two, I wonder if John Cena will even lose the United States championship. It makes all the sense in the world for Cena to drop it here if he’s taking a couple of months off, but then again titles mean so little nowadays it doesn’t really matter. I say whoever Cena faces will win, take the title, and put Cena on the shelf for the next couple of months. If you really want me to be bold when it comes to a guess, I’ll say Braun Strowman. Hey, he fits the bill!
Winner – Mystery dude
Jeremy Peeples: They’ve hinted at nothing for this, but haven’t had Kofi challenge and he’s in kind of a mini-program with New Day. I can see Kofi accepting this challenge after a tag title loss and then winning if Cena’s leaving for a bit.
Prediction – Challenger
Kyle S. Johnson: Will Cena’s opponent be a new face on the main roster? Will it be Dean Ambrose, the man who first accepted Cena’s U.S. Championship Open Challenge on the night after WrestleMania? Will it be Kofi Kingston, the lone member of The New Day not the challenge Cena in recent weeks? Whoever WWE has in mind, they’ll likely wind up taking the belt off of Cena to set him on his way for his sabbatical. This should be a cathartic moment in the half-year program of Cena’s Open Challenge, but a complete lack of build heading into this match could certainly hurt the effect.
Prediction – ???
Zach Dominello: I love a good mystery! The possibilities of who Cena’s challenger might be are endless. On top of that, Cena is reportedly taking some time off after Hell in a Cell which means the chances of him dropping the title are very good. It would great to see a returning star like Daniel Bryan accept the challenge, or perhaps Sami Zayn, who has had one of the best Open Challenge matches with Cena. We could see an Evolve name like Johnny Gargano, or a new face from NXT. Maybe Chris Jericho could make his 1000th surprise return. As I alluded to earlier, what I’m actually hoping for is one of the New Day takes on Cena. Big. E feels like the best fit against Cena, and the rest of the New Day could interfere so Cena doesn’t have to drop the title completely cleanly. The New Day incorporating Freebird Rules with the US title could make for some very entertaining programming.
Prediction – ??? (??? = New Day)
James Cox: Short of this being a ‘surprise’, whether that be an NXT graduate or a return, I would have to assume that this match is against Dean Ambrose after his match was ruined by Randy Orton’s shoulder injury. With Cena taking time off, the title ought to be vacated and they’re short of babyfaces. Ambrose with a title might be a good move. Mind you, has anyone seen Daniel Bryan of later…?
Prediction: Dean Ambrose
Steve Khan: They’ve known for weeks that Cena would be leaving at Hell in a Cell but didn’t bother building up an opponent. Dolph Ziggler seemed like a decent idea, but that’s out the window. It says something that there’s a pre-show match with six guys and five of them have taken this challenge and lost. They could debut somebody new to beat Cena and make an impact, but that seems unlikely.
Prediction – John Cena
Adam Stephen Kelly: The US Title Open Challenge has been a highlight of RAW during John Cena’s two recent tenures as champion. He’s been putting on great matches on a consistent basis at a level we haven’t seen from him in forever. I think WWE has succeeded in its objective to elevate the title in terms of its prestige, at least to a certain degree. While some say the obvious opponent is Kofi Kingston given Cena’s recent bouts with both Big E and Xavier Woods, I don’t think we’ll be seeing any repeat performances on Sunday night, and I’m sure that Woods’ place during the Tag Team Championship match will be ringside, trombone and all. Thinking out of the box, I’m torn between two picks: Daniel Bryan and Sami Zayn. While both have been on the injured list for quite some time, Zayn noted back in August that he’d be back on the road in a couple of months, and as far as Bryan goes, it’s always possible he could’ve been cleared by the doctor WWE wanted him to visit for the final word. It’d be poetic for either wrestler to make their return and emerge victorious.
Prediction – Daniel Bryan or Sami Zayn (new champion)
Paul Fontaine: So I think we have two predictions here. Who is the mystery challenger and who wins the match? In my opinion, the answer is the same. Tyler Breeze. How I see this going down is that they have the typical Cena 3.5 to 4 star match, with Cena doing everything he can to make Breeze into something. At some point, we get outside interference from whomever is going to be Cena’s next program when he comes back…maybe Sheamus. Breeze takes advantage of that and goes on to feud with Dolph Ziggler for the US belt.
Prediction – Tyler Breeze
Hell in a Cell: Roman Reigns vs. Bray Wyatt
Bryan Rose: I’m just kind of glad we’re finally seeing an end to this boring, meaningless feud that I’m pretty sure will rack up some votes as the worst of the year. Five months of back and forth feuding and trading wins and losses is just too much in this day and age, and I don’t think it’s helped Roman Reigns at all in becoming what WWE wants him to be. The verbiage between these two have been really bad at some points. The match…I don’t know. It’ll be either pretty decent, or completely uninteresting. If WWE has even a modicum of an inkling of how to get people over (and I question this) then Reigns should win.
Prediction – Roman Reigns
Jeremy Peeples: Roman’s clearly the guy they want to be the man, while Bray has spent the better part of his time since WrestleMania 30 mired in mid-card Hell. Roman should win this, and a Bray win wouldn’t really accomplish much unless they decide to redo the Kane debut with Braun and give Bray a tainted win that way.
Prediction – Roman Reigns
Kyle S. Johnson: The feud that never ends rolls into yet another pay-per-view. These two and their various seconds and thirds have traded wins for the last four months, and the stipulation of this match makes it feel as if this will be the blow-off. However, we’re still several months away from WrestleMania, and Reigns is still presumably being groomed for the main event. Keeping him in the feud with Wyatt lets him quietly build some momentum without thrusting him into the main event, and it keeps Wyatt and his crew occupied for the foreseeable future. I’d expect Reigns to get a conclusive win over Wyatt that will stand as a sort of watershed moment in his road to WrestleMania, but don’t be surprised if the feud continues for a month or two longer, possibly with a traditional Survivor Series match.
Prediction – Roman Reigns
Zach Dominello: What’s most important here is that this match is the end of the Bray Wyatt/Roman Reigns program regardless of who wins or loses. Please just let the be the end. If my dream comes true and that is the case, I expect Reigns to defeat Wyatt. If this program is destined to continue, which is all too possible, Wyatt wins.
Prediction – Roman Reigns.
James Cox: The day that they get Bray Wyatt up against someone where it doesn’t just end up being a weird rivalry, will be a good day. Having said that, in a cell this could be a good match and a win for Reigns where he comes out looking strong could do his path towards WrestleMania some good. We hope for no interference, but the cell doesn’t even guarantee that anymore. I’m ready to see the back of this feud.
Prediction – Roman Reigns
Steve Khan: The big benefit these two have is that their Cell match will go on before the other one, so all the little Hell in a Cell tricks will work in their favour. These two can brawl, but the feud has really sucked, so the crowd should be interesting. Reigns needs a win badly. I can see the Wyatts taking out Ambrose early, leaving Reigns on his own and battling to get the win. Whatever happens, a multi-man match at Survivor Series seems likely.
Prediction – Roman Reigns
Adam Stephen Kelly: I’m looking forward to seeing the back of this feud, but at least we know that Hell in a Cell will be the blow-off. The stipulation makes for a fitting end to the madness, but I’d have preferred the match to be Last Man Standing or something so that the cell was exclusive to the Brock Lesnar vs. The Undertaker main event. There’s no way that Roman Reigns isn’t coming out on top. He’ll look very strong in the finish, while Bray Wyatt will move on to another opponent he can specifically target and then lose to.
Prediction – Roman Reigns
Paul Fontaine: I think this might actually be a good match but I suspect they’ll be playing to crickets. Tons of interference, despite the Cell, is almost a lock. Reigns almost has to win since he’s going to inevitably be challenging for the big belt at Mania unless Vince comes to his senses. Thankfully this feud will be over. There’s an outside chance that Ambrose turns on Reigns and costs him the match but that scenario would make more sense if the top 2 faces weren’t on hiatus for the next 2 months.
Jeremy Peeples: Unless they decide to have Sheamus cash in on Kane and then find a way to keep Kane as Corporate Kane without having him leave as champion, Seth is going to win this. They seem to be giving the WWE Champion some wins, so they know he needs to be protected and a loss to Kane isn’t the way to do it.
Prediction – Seth Rollins
Bryan Rose: I kind of want to see Kane win here. Seth Rollins, while not at a Rey Mysterio or Magnus level when it comes to worst world champions of all time, is pretty high on the list. He’s lost so many matches between August and now it’s baffling. Yes, Flair lost all the time, but that was in the eighties. This is today, and that can’t fly here. Kane is WWE’s constant band aid when it comes to looking for a main event title program and this one’s no different. Rollins is such a great main event level worker that the match itself I feel will be pretty decent. I’m just expecting a really screwy finish here that gives Rollins the victory for two reasons. One, it’s WWE in the year 2015 so no one can look too strong. Two, they need a way to continue this into next month. I really feel this is a feud that’ll last through at least TLC so they’ll need to find reasons to feud. I mean, I hope I’m wrong, but would you be surprised if that were actually the case?
Prediction – Seth Rollins via wacky finish
Adam Stephen Kelly: I’m surprised that Seth Rollins has lasted as long as he has as WWE World Heavyweight Champion. Given his size and style, many had predicted long before The Shield broke up that Rollins would be the one most likely to be misused by the company and end up lost in the midcard. Of course, that theory was put to rest at the climax of WrestleMania, and we’re now six months into his title reign. He’s very much an interesting champion for interesting times, and was booked incredibly well in the beginning. But now? Hmm, not so much. Could the shock value of Kane winning the title be WWE’s answer to RAW’s ratings slump? Nothing would surprise me at this stage, only I hope that isn’t the reality come Sunday night.
Prediction – Seth Rollins
Kyle S. Johnson: WWE cannot be so ridiculous as to go with Kane as their World Heavyweight Champion in the middle of a historic ratings slump, can they? Almost certainly not. Seth Rollins, oddly enough, has built up a head of steam for himself with two(!!) consecutive wins on television. This shouldn’t be an incredible feat, but it somehow is. Kane was nowhere to be seen on television this week, so this match feels incredibly flat heading into Sunday. I expect Seth to win by hook or crook, and then let the chips fall where they may in terms of the Corporate/Demon Kane job dynamic.
Prediction – Seth Rollins
Zach Dominello: I’ll miss you most of all, Happy Go Lucky Director of Operations Corporate Kane. You were too good for this world.
Prediction – Seth Rollins
James Cox: This would provide the suitable out for Kane to leave The Authority. That story has well and truly run its course. Seth doesn’t need to drop the title yet and Kane certainly isn’t the man to take it. I just wonder if they can make this a good match – Kane is rarely very good in matches, let alone semi-main event spots. Seth is a remarkable performer but is losing and has been facing old guys who can just about still go in the last two months on ppv. We need to see him up against quality opposition and, no, that’s not Sheamus. How they solve that little issue is anyone’s guess.
Prediction – Seth Rollins
Steve Khan: Rollins should win and move on from this dreadful storyline immediately. We know this. But, again, I can see them wanting this keep this going as Rollins has nothing else lined up. Kane could win via DQ, which would protect him, keep the feud going, and keep him as director of operations. It’s the lamest possible finish, so that’s my prediction.
Prediction: Kane via DQ
Paul Fontaine: In the whacky world of WWE booking, the guy that wins on TV loses on PPV. Rollins has been on a mini streak since losing every match for over a month. Demon Kane lost on Monday night. That logic says all signs point to a Kane win. So that’s what’s going to happen and then Sheamus cashes in. This will mean his post-Christmas program with Cena means even more.
Prediction: Kane, but Sheamus leaves as champ
Hell in a Cell: Brock Lesnar vs. The Undertaker
Bryan Rose: This is another one of these trilogies that WWE love to book, but I find myself having little interest. I will admit their last match was really good, but the finish was so bad I can’t get myself excited for the third. Them being in a cell I think will hurt things more than anything. But I’m pretty sure it’ll at least be better than their Wrestlemania match, which was solid at best and I’m being kind of generous there. I think Lesnar needs to win, given the amount of money they pay him, plus he’s such a fascinating commodity, something WWE has little of right now, and having the 50+ year old Undertaker win this series really does no one any favors.
Prediction – Brock Lesnar
Adam Stephen Kelly: In theory, this is one of the most epic rivalries of the last decade. The fact that Brock Lesnar broke The Undertaker’s WrestleMania streak back in 2014 is still shocking to this day. With hindsight, there’s no denying that such an unforgettable moment was the perfect excuse to carry on the feud. It may have taken over a year to continue, but the SummerSlam rematch did not disappoint, blowing their WrestleMania encounter out of the water. Not only did the match deliver but the build-up was fantastic. It felt like must-see television and deserved its place as the main event. Hell in a Cell is a fitting stage for the conclusion of this story, and yet their final battle feels insignificant; fuelled by two months of extremely underwhelming hype. In the wake of Night of Champions, WWE seemed more concerned with promoting Lesnar’s match against The Big Show at the Live from Madison Square Garden special than his upcoming pay-per-view bout. The teased brawl in the opening segment of this week’s RAW felt like the kind of angle you would see two or three weeks prior to a pay-per-view, not on the go-home show, and with diminishing ratings, it made no sense to utilise both Lesnar and The Undertaker in the first segment when you already had Steve Austin kicking off the show. Why they didn’t advertise them for the second or third hour when RAW was up against an especially hot edition of Monday Night Football featuring the new Star Wars trailer premiere is beyond me. Lesnar should emerge from the cell victorious since he’s the most bankable star going forward. With this feud in the rearview mirror, it’ll certainly be interesting to see what WWE has in store for both wrestlers come WrestleMania 32.
Prediction – Brock Lesnar
Jeremy Peeples: The hype for Summerslam’s match was fantastic, while this one has largely been built on the fumes of that. Taker redeemed himself this year with WM 30 and Summerslam, so it should be pretty good as a match. Brock should win this thing since he has more time left in the ring than the Undertaker probably does.
Kyle S. Johnson: What happened here? WWE managed to make the Summerslam rematch feel like the hottest thing in the company with one single brawl; for the Hell in a Cell rematch, there was an announcement out of nowhere during Night of Champions, and then almost nothing up until the go-home show. The build to this match seems incredibly paltry compared to Summerslam, and it pales even in comparison to some of the weaker builds of the past year. Still, despite an inexplicable lack of promotion, this should make for an enjoyable little bit of ultra-violence to send the audience home happy. Lesnar should win this one to help build toward his likely return to the title picture, and one has to wonder what the result will do in terms of setting up both men for their respective WrestleMania matchups.
Prediction – Brock Lesnar
Zach Dominello: Uninspired build-up aside, this is a huge match. With one win a piece, this has been booked as the blow off match, and there’s no apparent reason to doubt it won’t be the final match of the series. So who ends this epic rivalry on top? Both men are expected to be at WrestleMania next year in Dallas, so ideally you want them both looking strong coming out of this match. That leads me to believe that we won’t get a clean finish. Whoever wins will likely do so in less than honourable fashion, possibly with some outside help, wanted or otherwise. That may also plant the seeds for at least one these two’s WrestleMania match next year. If that is the case, it’s not really about who wins or loses, but what the match sets up for their respective futures. Now having said all that, Brock Lesnar is currently WWE’s biggest star attraction, so if we do get a straightforward winner, I’d go with him.
Prediction – Brock Lesnar
James Cox: So a clean finish here to end this feud is all we’re after. Well, that and a good match after such a meager and mediocre build this month. Lesnar’s the best things they’ve got and Undertaker can still ride off into the sunset at WrestleMania in Texas. It would be a courageous man to call this match any other way and I’m not that man, but I do think that this will a really good match. I hope we get some of the old Undertaker. In theory, this could be his penultimate WWE match, so I think he throws everything at it without being too wild or dangerous. The cell at least means that they can avoid to many suplexes, bumps and F-5s for Undertaker in his condition.
Prediction – Brock Lesnar
Steve Khan: There’s no argument to be made for Undertaker winning. Their match at SummerSlam was great and this should be good too. Lesnar will likely beat him clean and they can even shake hands to keep Lesnar as a babyface moving forward.
Prediction – Brock Lesnar
Paul Fontaine: Lesnar has to win. I still have no idea why this match was booked for right now but perhaps we’ll find out during or right after this match. There must be a long-term idea here that this match plays into. Right? They can’t possibly just be hot-shotting for network buys. Regardless, the Cell should add something to this match as Undertaker Cell matches are usually pretty great. Hopefully Taker comes out of this match ok. I don’t have the slightest idea where either guy goes from here at this point.
UFC Fight Night 76 comes your way on Saturday afternoon here in the United States as the Octagon makes its’ third appearance in Dublin, Ireland. The event has undergone some late changes, losing the original main event and co-main event. We still have some interesting bouts and some chances to make money if you are playing daily fantasy this weekend on DraftKings. Let’s take some look at some studs, some values, and some fighters to avoid this weekend when setting your roster for UFC Fight Night 76.
STUDS
Stevie Ray ($11,000)
Stevie Ray has the highest salary of all the fighters competing on the UFC Fight Night 76 card, and for good reason. He has been impressive in his two bouts in the UFC, scoring knockout wins early in those bouts. He has averaged 101.5 DFS points in those two fights, and he is the biggest betting favorite on the card in his bout against Mickael Lebout. Ray has a lot of power in his fists, and some solid submission skills too if the fight hits the mat. Lebout has some submission skills as well, having won six fights that way, and Ray has lost four fights that way. Lebout is more of a point fighter, though, and Ray likes to get that finish. With his 14 stoppage wins and the power he displays, he is the best bet to score a big finish on this card.
Scott Askham ($9,700)
I like Scott Askham in his fight against Krzysztof Jotko. Askham scored a big finish over Antonio Carlos Junior in his last bout, and he is a tall middleweight. The best thing is he knows how to use his length to his advantage. He is a knockout artist, having won eight of his 13 fights by knockout, and finishes are where you are going to maximize your points. Askham also has underrated submission skills. Jotko has only lost once in his career, but he is not much of a finisher. His only loss also came by stoppage. Both men share the same salary, and it is a toss-up on the betting lines. However, I like Askham’s chances of scoring a win by stoppage, and I like him to win the fight in general.
VALUES
Darren Till ($9,300)
Darren Till is a young, undefeated prospect making his second appearance in the Octagon. At just 22-years-old, he is 13-0 with eleven wins by stoppage. He fights another undefeated fighter in Nicolas Dalby, who comes in with a 14-0 record. Till has a lot of knockout power and some brutal ground-and-pound, and he is still evolving. Dalby has likely peaked in his career, and he has good skills, but is not much of a finisher. Till is a solid value play because of his ability, his progression, and his power. I see him getting a stoppage win.
Robert Whiteford ($9,200)
Robert Whiteford fights the most experienced UFC veteran on the card in Darren Elkins. Whiteford has won his last two fights, showing off his solid judo skills. Elkins is a strong wrestlers so Whiteford will be needing to use those judo skills. He scored a big knockout win in his last fight, but Elkins is a tough fighter to finish. Elkins has struggled putting his wrestling and kickboxing together and that is where Whiteford is going to have to take advantage of. It could be tough for Whiteford to score points, but he has some solid value with his knockout power in his hands.
AVOID
Norman Parke ($10,800)
Norman Parke has the second-highest salary of all of the UFC Fight Night 76 participants. He has scored just one finish in his UFC career, and it was against a lesser fighter. He is fighting Reza Madadi, who despite coming off a 30-month layoff, is still a stout opponent who will be hard to finish. Parke is more of a points fighter and this fight will likely go the distance. With his high salary, I would stay away from Parke as I don’t see him getting enough points to get you high in the cash. I do expect him to win, though, so the risk is there if you choose to go that way.
Cathal Pendred ($8,800)
I can’t tell you to avoid Cathal Pendred enough. He just hasn’t shown the skills to be a finisher on a consistent basis in the UFC. He has won four of his five UFC bouts, but only one has been a finish, and the rest have been boring decisions, and some were controversial decisions. He is awkward in his strikes and he telegraphs his takedowns. He has been given a tough opponent in Tom Breese, one that could send Pendred right out of the UFC. Breese may actually finish Pendred, so his $10,600 salary could be enticing if you have room on your roster. However, stay away from Pendred at all costs.
OUR LINEUPS
RYAN FREDERICK- Stevie Ray ($11,000), Tom Breese ($10,600), Scott Askham ($9,700), Darren Till ($9,300), Robert Whiteford ($9,200)
Every one of the fighters I’m using have been listed in some form above. I like all of my roster to actually score finish wins. Ray has the knockout power and is facing a fighter he can finish quickly. Breese, I see him finishing Cathal Pendred, but that may be tough. Askham and Till have such solid power and they’re in fights that should be showcase bouts for them. Whiteford is the toughest one to predict since he has such a tough opponent in Darren Elkins. I think Elkins has almost peaked as a fighter and Whiteford is developing quite nicely.
PAUL FONTAINE- Stevie Ray ($11,000), Aisling Daly ($9,900), Paddy Holohan ($9,600), Darren Till ($9,300), Cathal Pendred ($8,800)
The crowd has been such a factor in previous shows in Dublin so I’m going with all fighters from that area. I like Aisling Daly who I believe it better than she’s shown herself to be in previous UFC fights. She has a long history of fighting the best at both 115 and 125 and she should grind out a decision win or perhaps a late submission. Paddy Holohan will be fighting the biggest fight of his life and I’m predicting his main event bout with Louis Smolka to be a potential fight of the year candidate. The crowd will will Paddy to a win. Cathal Pendred had a 4 fight win streak snapped at UFC 189 but they’ve given him a winnable fight here Pendred will do what he always does and grind out a decision win. As the lower priced fighter, he’s a must for my team. Stevie Ray is a finisher and I think the Scottish fighter is going to blitz Mickael Lebout and score a dynamic KO win. My last pick is Darren Till. Unbeaten, fighting close to home and he’s an underdog. Great value pick in my opinion. Someone’s zero has got to go and I think it will Nicolas Dalby’s.
PEACH MACHINE- Norman Parke ($10,800), Nicolas Dalby ($10,100), Scott Askham ($9,700), Paddy Holohan ($9,600), Jon Delos Reyes ($9,400)
I was taking Dustin Poirier, but switched to Paddy Holohan when Poirier’s fight was cancelled. I’m also taking Jon Delos, my Guam homie. I trained with him in Guam and was always impressed by his grit. He’s tough as hell, and had a great fight last time out in Manila. It was a blood bath. I expect him to finish. Norman Parke I believe is underrated. He’s dang good but has lost his last two by split decisions. He’s got a ton of potential and a lot to prove here in his home country. I expect a good showing with Parke scoring a lot of points off of strikes. Scott Askham I chose more as a pick against Jotko. I don’t think Jotko will last any longer and I expect him to get KO’d and then cut. Finally, I went with Nicolas Dalby because his nickname is Sharpshooter and I’m a huge fan of Bret Hart and Tyson Kidd. That’s the sort of in depth analysis you get with the PeachMachine… I’m actually pretty interested in this show but there are a lot of guys that the average fan won’t recognize. This card does have potential to be fun, and it’s airing in the middle of the afternoon, so you know what that means… Day drinking!
NOTE: Due to an error with Draft Kings, UFC 192 events did not take place, therefore we have no scores from that event to compare how we did. We hope that doesn’t happen this time.
