Category: UFC News

Dana White on Twitter’s Periscope talked about the following Thursday:

– He predicted 1 million buys for the 7/11 PPV headlined by Jose Aldo vs. Conor McGregor.

– He said that he, Nick “The Tooth” Gallo, and Matt Serra will be going to Atlanta to film a reality TV show next week.

– He said the first heavyweight title contender for Fabricio Werdum would be either Andrei Arlovski or Stipe Miocic. He said that decision hasn’t been made yet, and that Junior Dos Santos is still injured from his previous fight with Miocic or he would have gotten the shot.

– He said Joe Rogan would be underdoing shoulder surgery shortly.

Best match: Werdum vs Velasquez

Worst match: Torres vs Hill

Thumbs up. Torres vs Hill was about as exciting as watching Super Invader vs Todd Champion. Rodriguez vs Rosa was a good fight. Rodriguez looked sharp and is someone to watch. In no way was this a split decision, it was pretty clear Rodriguez won 29-28. Gastelum vs Marquardt was a good showing for Gastelum and a sad one for Marquardt. It’s time for Marquardt to hang it up. Melendez vs Alvarez was okay, but did not live up to expectations. Not even close. Velasquez vs Werdum was a lot of fun. It’s funny because to me it looked like both fighters were fighting in slow motion a lot of the fight, but the shots were still effective. I was thrillled to see Werdum win in decisive fashion

Shannon Steward

****

Thumbs in the middle. Maybe a little up from the top fights. Their spottiest card in awhile. Altitude got to everybody, even the locals.

Best fight: Werdum-Cain, HM to Alvarez-Melendez, Rodriguez-Rosa

Worst fight: Pendred-Montaño, Torres-Hill

Best performance: Werdum, HM to Alvarez, Rodriguez, Escudero, Williams, Benitez

Worst performance: Montaño

KO: none (!)

Sub: Werdum, HM to Williams, Escudero

Gabriel Benitez looking like a different fighter batters Clay Collard but cannot finish him. Altitude definitely had an effect and Collard trains in Utah. Could easily have been wider than 30-27 but of course isn’t. Cathal Pendred takes a 29-28 UD stinker over Augusto Montaño, who is warned for timidity after the 1st and seemed the more gassed of the two.

Johnny Case paintjobs Francisco Trevino in another stinker. Case seemed well on the way to an impressive win when he ate an eyepoke in the 1st but dominated even afterward. 30-27 only possible score. Patrick Williams blows Alejandro Perez away, immediately knocking him down and snatching Guillotine and putting him to sleep. 23s. Grudging applause. Almost the same fight as Erfrain Escudero footsweeps Drew Dober and snatches Guillotine and Dover resists but has to tap. 54s. Close fight between Henry Cejudo and Chico Camus. Camus stuffed every TD till the last few seconds and he just gave that one up as there were feet of daylight, and that may have been the margin but it’s a UD with one 29-28.

Tecia Torres mostly drubs Angela Hill in another stinker. Same scoring as last fight.

In by far best fight of the night so far Yair Rodriguez comes out at the bell doing matrix stuff and landing it and dominates the first two. Charles Rosa refuses to quit and dominates the 3rd. Gotta be 29-28 Rodriguez. One judge goes the other way. Great fight. Rodriguez pukes on his promo, fortunately off camera.

Kelvin Gastelum is fat but much too quick for quickly aging Nate Marquardt and does pretty much what he wants and it’s stopped by the corner after the 2nd. Maybe lucky for Gastelum because he looked to be gassing from hitting him. Gastelum really belongs at 170 but he’s just too lazy. Nate should retire. 

Eddie Alvarez looks tiny against Gil Melendez like he did against Cerrone. He should drop to 45. Gil busts Eddie up in the 1st. Eddie makes his own eye shut when he blows his nose after the round. But Eddie refuses to quit and takes the 2nd and 3rd. Eddie had the bigger gas tank. Both busted up at the end. 29-28 Eddie by me. One judge goes the other way. Right decision. This is the Alvarez we’re used to seeing. 

Cain Velasquez and Fabricio Werdum both come out bombing in the 1st. A lot of clinch work. Cain is cut. Cain gets 2 flash TDs, Fabricio 1. Cain wants no part of ground. Very close round. Cain MIGHT have edged it but Fabricio holding his own standing. The pace is going to kill somebody. In the 2nd Cain landing LKs but he looks the more gassed. Cain picks it up but Fabricio blasts back. Cain is rocked. Cain goes back to the LKs. Cain busier but Fabricio landing the harder shots. Fabricio nearly gets a standing cravat. Cain rocked again. Less and less on his strikes. Cain in trouble. He drops. Bounces up. Cain saved by the bell. Fabricio 10-8. Cain a mess in the corner. Fabricio barely breathing hard. The doctor is in. Gets Cain a little extra rest. They want Cain to take him down in the 3rd and he does. Kicks the legs a little and Fabricio up. Cain lands a HK. Fabricio snags a standing Guillotine. Lets go and lands knees. Misses a HK. Cain shoots right into a Guillotine and quickly taps. Cain clearly way off form from the long layoff and insufficient time training at altitude but full credit to Werdum who takes him to school and unifies the HW title.

Crimson Mask

*****

Thumbs Up. PPV portion only. The undercard was all good. Alvarez vs Melendez was great, as expected. And then the main event. In the biggest irony of all, a foreigner beat a mexican in Mexico because of the altitude. Being a long time football/soccer fan I know all about outsiders falling short when they get to Mexico City because they can’t keep up with the “thin” air while the local team overachieves. But this was at another level because it was the opposite result. Plus, Cain’s main atribute was the cardio. It’s pretty much incredible that no one on Cain’s team thought of that aspect.

Leonardo II Mendez

San Sebastian, PR

*****

Overall: Thumbs Down

Best Fight: Yair Rodriguez vs. Charles Rosa

Worst Fight: Tecia Torres vs. Angela Hill

If the UFC went back to Mexico City in 100 years it would be too soon. The altitude was SUCH a huge factor in the quality of fights. Way more than Denver ever has been. There’s got to be other arenas in Mexico that aren’t at such high altitude. 

Tecia Torres def Angela Hill

Just a lay-and-pray fest. Awful. I get the strategy considering how tiring it must have been to fight, but come on.

Yair Rodriguez def Charles Rosa

Great fight. It slowed down after awhile due to altitude. Yair fights like a star, and he speaks both Spanish and English which is a huge plus for the UFC. Yair was AWESOME in the first round and I’d love to see what this guy could do closer to sea level. 

Kelvin Gastelum def Nate Marquardt

Proud of Nate’s corner for ending it when they did. More corners should do that and save their fighter’s future health. In retrospect Nate should have never taken this fight in Mexico City. I hope he’s okay. 

Eddie Alvarez def Gilbert Melendez

There’s no doubt in my mind that Gilbert wins this fight if it was in California or Vegas. Instead he loses to a one eyed man after completely gassing out in the second. After this fight I decided I’m never watching another show that’s booked in Mexico City. 

Fabricio Werdum def Cain Velasquez

Mr. Cardio himself loses due to cardio. Another fight I think the other guy would have won if it was closer to sea level. Werdum showed a hell of chin as he took some heavy jabs, hooks, and uppercuts over and over from Cain and seemed unphased. Cain looked like he was about to pass out from exhaustion in the second round and had trouble even getting the water bottle to his mouth in between rounds. Yet still I think Cain would have won this had it not been in Mexico City. Cain was showing he was still the most skilled heavyweight in the world until he totally gassed out. I’m not taking the win away from Werdum though, it’s Cain’s fault for not making the sacrifice and training in Mexico like Werdum did. Werdum is already 37 but seems to suddenly be in his prime. We’ll see how long that lasts. I expect Cain to return to the championship soon, if he can ever stay healthy. 

-Matthew Burrill

@mattb425

Thumbs up
Best Match – Velasquez vs Werdum
Worst Match – Alvarez vs Melendez

Never thought I’d ever see Cain tap – WOW! Loved Yair Rodriguez’s performance. Melendez/Alvarez was such a let down. El Niño got beat by a guy who couldn’t see out of his eyes. It felt like three rounds of shadow boxing. What Joe Rogan said was right – when there is such a huge grudge – there is an intense fear of failure that makes everyone tentative.

Jason Singh
Vallejo, CA

UFC has announced its third event in Mexico to be November 21 at Arena Monterrey – the site of tomorrow’s Verano de Escandalo show. The show will be on Fox Sports 1, and will include the finals of the next season of TUF Latin America.

Welcome to WrestlingObserver.com’s live coverage of UFC 188: Velasquez vs. Werdum from Arena Ciudad de Mexico in Mexico City, Mexico. The event, headlined by a UFC Heavyweight Championship Unification bout between UFC Heavyweight Champion Cain Velasquez and Interim UFC Heavyweight Champion Fabricio Werdum, airs on pay-per-view at 10 PM eastern time. Preliminary card action kicks off at 7 PM eastern time on UFC Fight Pass before moving over to FX at 8 PM eastern time. We are looking for your thoughts on tonight’s show, so send a thumbs up, a thumbs down or a thumbs in the middle along with a best and worst fight to dave@wrestlingobserver.com.

PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC FIGHT PASS- 7 PM ET/4 PM PT)

FEATHERWEIGHTS: GABRIEL BENITEZ VS. CLAY COLLARD

First round: Collard out in a Lucha mask.  You knew at least one American would do that.  He’s also wearing a serape.   Benitez from Tijuana is from TUF Latin America season one.  Crowd super hot.  Benitez dropped him with a left right away and a body kick.  Crowd so loud for Benitez.  Body kick by Benitez.  Great low kick by Benitez.  Left by Benitez.  Hard body kick by Benitez.  Collard landed several punches.  Collard with a left to the groin for a time out.   Collard working for a takedown.  Benitez working for a guillotine, .  He’s squeezing but slipped off.  Collard is on top.  Collard is bleeding and has Benitez’s back.  Collard working for a choke.  Hard elbows by Benitez.  Collard up.  Collard with a German suplex.  Benitez up.  Another body kick by Benitez.  Good first round.  Benitez 10-9.

Second round: Nice low kick.  Collard bruised up everywhere.  Low kicks by Benitez.  Benitez with a left to the head and body.  Collard got the takedown.  Knee to the body and Benitez back up.  Benitez bleeding from the side of the head.  Benitez with a kick to the body and Collard took him down  Another takedown by Collard.  Collard punching the body.  Collard bleeding from tje nose and right eye.  Body shot by Benitez.  Knee to the body by Benitez.  Low kick by Benitez.  Benitez with another body shot.  Collard’s hurting.  Benitez 20-18.

Third round: Benitez with low kicks.  Left by Collard.  Collard is hurting and exhausted.  Benitez on top.  Benitez let him up.  Left to the jaw and kick to the face by Benitez.  Collard with a takedown.  Another takedown by Collard.  Collard landing punches and has his back.  Collard throwing punches.  Benitez’s round 30-27, although this was close enough with the takedowns you could go 29-28.

Scores: All three have it 30-27 for Benitez.

WELTERWEIGHTS: AUGUSTO MONTANO VS. CATHAL PENDRED

First round: Montano is from Mexico City so the crowd going crazy for him.  Side kick by Montano.  Kick to the face by Montano.  Slow first round.  Crowd booing.  Montano slipped but Pendred took no advantage of it.  Pendred getting mad and Montano still dancing away.  Knee by Montano.  Montano 10-9.  Crowd booing the round heavy.

Second round: Herb Dean threatened Montano that he’d take points for timidity if he doesn’t do more.  Montano hurt him with a right.  Pendred pushed him into the fence.  Takedown by Pendred.  Montano up.  Pendred working for another taekdown.  He got him down a second time.  Third takedown by Pendred.  Pendred punching the side of the head.  Pendred’s round so 19-19 going into the third round.  Crowd booed another round heavy.

Third round: Pendred pushed him against the fence.  Knee by Montano.  Crowd booing heavy.  Low kick by Pendred.  Nothing happening this round.  Montano doing nothing.  Crowd booed the hell out of this round.  Pendred’s round 29-28.

Scores: Crowd booing even before the scores are.  All three have it 29-28 Pendred.

PRELIMINARY CARD (FX- 8 PM ET/5 PM PT)

LIGHTWEIGHTS: FRANCISCO TREVINO VS. JOHNNY CASE

First round: Case in with with a punch/kick combo.  Case firing.  Case with a body kick and body punch.  Case landed a right.  Side kick by Trevino.  Trevino poked him in the eye and Case started screaming.  The eye was scratched when a finger was put in.  The doctor is checking.  His left eye is closing.  Case said he could see.  They are letting it go.  Case with a takedown.  Trevino reversed to the top.   Case 10-9.

Second round: Takedown by Case.  Case moved to side control.  Case has a guillotine and Trevino escaped and on top.  Trevino with a knee to the body and Case back up.  Both tired right now.  Takedown by Case.  Close round Case 20-18.

Third round: Case landed a series of shots.  Case with an uppercut.  Takedown by Case.  Case moving forward.  Crowd booed the round a lot when it was over.  30-27 Case

Scores: All three have it 30-27 for Case.   Crowd cheered even though Trevino is of Mexican heritage.

BANTAMWEIGHTS: ALEJANDRO PEREZ VS. PATRICK WILLIAMS

First round: Williams out fast with punches, Williams dropped him with two rights and grabbed a guillotine.  He choked him out cold.  That was the fastest submission in bantamweight history. Not a good night for Mexico so far.  :23

Williams tried a backflip after the win, lost balance and fell on his ass.

LIGHTWEIGHTS: EFRAIN ESCUDERO VS. DREW DOBER

First round: Dober slipped on a kick and Escudero grabbed a guillotine.  Dober survived for a while in it before tapping.

FLYWEIGHTS: HENRY CEJUDO VS. CHICO CAMUS

First round: Camus is defending the takedowns well.  Front kick by Cejudo.  Camus with a left hook.  Cejudo again pushed him into the fence.  Camus landed a right.  Camus pie faced him on a break and Mario Yamasaki told him not to do it again.  Both missing and Camus defending another takedown.  Cejudo with a single leg and a left.  Cejudo got a takedown but Camus back up.  10-9 Cejudo.

Second round: Cejudo landed a right.  Cejudo landed more punches.  Fans chanting for Cejudo loudly.  Both trading punches.  Camus landed two rights.  Body kick by Cejudo.  Camus blocked another takedown.  Both landing punches and Camus landing more.  Foot stomps and knee by Cejudo as he has Camus pinned against the fence.  Camus landed some punches.  Cejudo with a left.  Cejudo with a body kick.  20-18 Cejudo.

Third round: Camus landed a right.  Camus got poked in the eye.  Left by Camus.  Cejudo again couldn’t take him down.  Camus with a right.  Left by Cejudo.  Cejudo pushed him into the fence again.  Right and left by Cejudo on a break.  Left and body kick by Cejudo.  Body kick and a right by Cejudo.  Camus is going for a takedown with no success.  Camus with a right and a left.  Camus with a body kick.  Cejudo got a takedown late in the round.  Camus back up.  Close round but I have 30-27 Cejudo.

Scores: 29-28, 30-27 and 30-27 Cejudo

MAIN CARD *****

WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHTS: TECIA TORRES VS. ANGELA HILL

First round: Torres pushed her into the fence but couldn’t get her down.  Torres then got the takedown.  Torres landing a lot of punches late to win the round.  10-9 Torres.

Second round: Torres with punches and got the takedown.  Torres landed in side control but Hill got guard.  Torres into side control.  McCarthy ordered a stand up.  20-18 Torres.

Third round: Trading low kicks.  Nice exchange.  Torres landed punches.  Torres with a left hook.  Hill landing a left.  Both trading.  Crowd booing as Torres was working for a takedown and didn’t get it.  Ref John McCarthy called a break with 1:08 left.  Both very tired in this round.  Torres pushed her against the fence again working for a takedown and not getting it.  Crowd booing.  Torres 30-27.  Crowd booed this a lot.

Scores: 30-27, 30-27 for 29-28 Torres

FEATHERWEIGHTS: YAIR RODRIGUEZ VS. CHARLES ROSA

First round: Spin kick by Rodriguez.  Awesome enzuigiri by Rodriguez.  Front kick by Rodriguez.  Flying knee but Rosa took him down.  Rodriguez working for a triangle.  Place going crazy.  Rosa landing punches from the top.  Rosa has his back.  Rodriguez getting up.  Crowd loving this.  Nice takedown by Rosa.  Up kicks by Rodriguez and both throwing punches but Rosa was landing from the top.  Rosa landing elbows to the body.  Rosa went for a kneebar after Rodriguez went for an armbar.  Super round.  Rodriguez 10-9.

Second round: Crowd super loud.  Side kick by Rodriguez.  Rodriguez with a body kick.  Rosa trying for a takedown and getting nowhere close.  Spin kick by Rodriguez.  Body kick by Rodriguez.  Rosa landed a good left.  Left by Rodriguez.  Rodriguez with a judo takedown into mount.  Rodriguez stands back up.  Rosa bleeding badly from the left eye.  Rosa trying for a takedown and not getting it.  They are going to check the cut.  They let the fight continue.  Nice low kick by Rodriguez.  Rosa tried a takedown but Rodriguez stepped away.  Rodriguez missed a high kick.  Rosa going for a leglock but Rodriguez punching him and stood up.  Big right by Rosa. Rosa got a takedown.  Rodriguez reversed and stood up.  Rodriguez 20-18.

Third round: Rosa landed a right.  Low kick by Rosa.  Low kick by Rodriguez.  Rosa working for a takedown and got him down.  Crowd booing Rodriguez being on the ground.  Rosa split him open with an elbow.  Rosa landing punches on the ground.  Rodriguez working for the triangle.  Rodriguez is landing elbows while holding the triangle.  Rosa escaped the triangle.  Rodriguez out of trouble and back to his feet.  Body kick by Rodriguez.  Takedown by Rosa.  Rosa into side control.  Rosa landkng punches late .  Rosa’s round 29-28 Rodrigeuz.  Super fight.

Scores:  29-28 Rosa 29-28 Rodriguez 29-28 Rodriguez. Rodriguez threw up on himself during the post-fight interview.

MIDDLEWEIGHTS: KELVIN GASTELUM VS. NATE MARQUARDT

First round: Body kick by Marquardt.  Gastelum landing lefts.  Knee by Gastelum.  Big right by Marquardt.  Gastelum with more punches.  Left and right by Gastelum.  Marquardt back with punches.  Gastelum with a left.  Gastelum with an elbow  Marquardt landed a right.  Right by Gaselum.  Loud Mexico chant.  Right to the body by Marquardt.  Marquardt with a takedown. Gastelum back up and landed.  Gastelum got a takedown.  Gastelum has his back.  Body kick by Gastleum hard lefts by Gastelum.  Gastelum has him hurt late in the round.  10-9 Gastelum

Second round: Gastelum with a right.  Gastelum with a head kick.  Gastelum with punches and two hard knees.  He’s punching him on the ground.  Gastelum on top with punches.  Marquardt tripped him down and Gastelum went for a guillotine.  Marquardt dropped.  Gastelum has his back and is throwing punches.  Marquardt tried a reverse but Gastelum blocked it and stayed on top.  Gastelum with elbows from the top.  Hard body shots by Gastelum.  Gastelum 10-8 round 20-17 Gastelum.

Third round: Marquardt’s corner stopped the fight.  Marquardt said I’ve got nothing left and they stopped it.

LIGHTWEIGHTS: GILBERT MELENDEZ VS. EDDIE ALVAREZ

First round: Alvarez in with punches.  Melendez with jabs.  Hard right elbow by Melendez hurt him.  Left by Melendez.  Another left by Meldnez.  Right by Melendez.  Both fighting far more cautious than expected.  Melendez with a punch and Alvarez with a low kick.  Alvarez landed a punch.  Melendez with a jab.  Alvarez staying on the outside.  Melendez 10-9.

Seoind rund: Alvarez left eye looks real bad.  Alvarez with a nice right.  Alvarez’s left eye looks terriible.  Left by Alvarez.  Left by Alvarez.  Alvarez working for a takedown.  Low kick by Alvarez.  Melendez faked a takedown and hit a knee.  Crowd wants more action and now booing. Right by Melendez.  Alvarez working for a takedown.  Alvarez got the takedown.  Spinnig elbow by Alvarez.  Alvarez’s round so 19-19.

Third round: Alvarez working for a takedown.  Melendez throwing short punches and Alvarez working for a takedown.  Alvarez got him down.  Alvarez went for a takedown and Melendez threw a knee.  Alvarez landed an overhand right.  Melendez is really tired.  His mouth is wide open and breathing heavy.  Low kick b Alvaerz.  Takedown by Alvarez.  Melendez back up.  Alvarez with another takedown.  Melendez breathing super heavy.  Both trading.  Spinning elbow by Alvarez cut him badly.   Both swinging.  Crowd booed hem.  Alvarez’s round 29-28.

Scores: 29-28 Alvarez 29-28 Melendez 29-28 Alvarez

UFC HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP: CAIN VELASQUEZ VS. FABRICIO WERDUM

First round: Both swinging. Werdum dropped. Both trading punches. Werdum grabbed a clinch. Both swinging more. Velasquez with a knee and punches. Crowd is going crazy. Velasquez with a knee and punches.  Velasquez punched him and is bleeding from the eye. Velasquez took him down into side control. Velasquez got back up and pushed him into the fence. Werdum tried a trip but didn’t get it. Both trading.  Velasquez landing several punches. Werdum got a takedown. Werdum with a knee. Both trading again. Both are getting tired from the pace. Werdum with jabs and landing punches now. Velasquez landing punches and Werdum back. Takedown by Velasquez. Velasquez let him up and is all bloody. Right by Werdum but Velasquez back with punches.  Velasquez 10-9.

Second round: Velasquez with a punch and low kick. Both trading.  More low kicks by Velasquez. Werdum with a good punch but Velasquez with several more punches. Front kick by Werdum. Velasquez is tiring. Body kick by Velasquez. Werdum back. Knee by Werdum. Werdum hurt him with punches Velasquez back with punches. Werdum hurt him with a right. Velasquez landing a lot of punches.  Werdum with two punches. Werdum hurt him with an uppercut and a knee. The altitude is killing Velasquez. Velasquez doesn’t have any power left. Right by Velasquez but Werdum back with a right. Hard right by Werdum. Werdum with a left and right. Werdum hurt Velasquez with a knee.  Werdum with a right and a knee. Werdum’s round 19-19.

Third round: Werdum landing jabs. Takedown by Velasquez. Velasquez kicking the leg. Werdum back up. Left by Werdum. Head kick by Velasquez. Werdum has a guillotine, but Velasquez escaped. Werdum landing a punch and a knee. Velasquez back with a right. Both exchanging. Velasquez with a takedown, but got caught in a Werdum guillotine. Velasquez tapped out at 2:13.

We have a new undisputed heavyweight champion of the world.

By the Secret Psychic Spy (secretpsychicspy@yahoo.com)

Starting Bankroll: $1,500

Current Bankroll: $621.67

Last week: 3/5 Overall 54/95 (57%)

Starting to turn things around with a small profit last week. Should hopefully keep the momentum going this week with the 5 picks I’ve found worth value from UFC 188 this weekend. It’s a return to Mexico and the return of the one who beat the one who beat the streak…or something like that. Cain Velasquez returns after a 20 month absence. Speaking of which…

Pick 1 – Fabricio Werdum (19-5-1) +400 over Cain Velasquez (13-1) I’m betting $100 to win $500

Taking a long shot here but I really like these odds. Werdum has steamrolled his way to this title shot and is facing a guy who will no doubt have some Octagon rust. I’ve even heard rumours that Cain might not be at 100% and if that’s the case, these odds are way out of whack. If this were an even money bet, I might lean toward Cain but no way should he be a 5 to 1 favorite.

Pick 2 – Charles Rosa (10-1) -225 over Yair Rodriguez (4-1) I’m betting $100 to win $44.44

Rodriguez has this main card slot on a PPV because he won TUF Latin America but he struggled to win a decision against a similarly inexperienced opponent at UFC 180. Rosa is “Boston Strong” and walked into enemy territory on short notice last year in his UFC debut and almost beat tough veteran Dennis Siver. He followed that up with a brilliant performance earlier this year and should keep the momentum going on Saturday.

Pick 3 – Tecia Torres (5-0) over Angela Hill (2-0) I’m betting $100 to win $34.48

You may recall that Torres was one of the favorites going into the TUF 20 tournament to crown a new Strawweight champion. She went to a majority decision with eventual champion Carla Esparza but is unbeaten in official pro bouts. Hill is very inexperienced and while improving each time out, she should be no match for “The Tiny Tornado”.

Pick 4 – Clay Collard (14-5) -255 over Gabriel Benitez (17-4) I’m betting $100 to win $39.22

Though the records look similar, Collard has faced a far greater level of competition, including handing unbeaten prospect Alex White his first career defeat late last year. Benitez is another TUF Latin America prospect who earned a late submission win at UFC 180 but it was against a .500 fighter who likely wasn’t even UFC caliber. This is the only pick here that isn’t a main card fight as this one will air on UFC Fight Pass.

Pick 5 – Gilbert Melendez (22-4) -170 over Eddie Alvarez (25-4) I’m betting $100 to win $58.82

Personally I’m looking forward to this fight most of all. Hardcore fans have wanted this fight since both were champions in other organizations and it’ll finally happen before a raucous crowd in Mexico. Melendez only has one win in 3 UFC fights but the two losses were to former UFC Champions Benson Henderson and Anthony Pettis. Melendez is likely the toughest fighter that Alvarez has ever faced and I think Alvarez caves in under the pressure.

All told, I’m betting $500 with a chance to win $576.97

On with the betting game.

2015 Betting Game: Secret Psychic Spy vs Ryan Frederick

Current Standings:

Ryan Frederick: $426.92 (Picked Ortega, Noons, Browne, Magny, Matthews)

Secret Psychic Spy: $152.63 (Picked Henderson, Breese, Pyle, Wee, Andrews)

We were both winners last week as Brian Ortega snatched victory from the jaws of defeat for young Ryan and Hendo made middle-aged men, including Bryan Alvarez, around the world happy by dropping the Hendo bomb on Tim Boetsch and putting me in my rightful place at the top  of this game, where I’ll be staying.

I’ll be taking Werdum for the reasons mentioned above. Mostly cause I look at is as a free picks since Freddy’s here is almost certain to lose.

Freddy’s pick and analysis:

Eddie Alvarez +155 over Gilbert Melendez

I’m going with an underdog pick and picking Eddie Alvarez to defeat Gilbert Melendez. I expect an exciting fight and a lot of back-and-forth action. I think Alvarez has those UFC jitters out of the way, and I seem him as a slightly better fighter at this stage than Melendez is. Both are great and fun to watch, and I feel like I’m going out on a little bit of a limb here as it seems most expect Melendez to win. So, going with the upset here.

Good luck, enjoy the fights and above all else remember, Freddy’s going down!

Welcome to WrestlingObserver.com’s live coverage of the UFC 188: Velasquez vs. Werdum weigh-ins from Arena Ciudad de Mexico in Mexico City, Mexico kicking off at 7 PM eastern time. The event airs on Saturday on pay-per-view at 10 PM eastern time. Preliminary card action kicks off on UFC Fight Pass at 7 PM eastern time before moving over to FX at 8 PM eastern time. This marks the Octagon’s second trip to Mexico City following UFC 180 in November.

The event will be headlined by a UFC Heavyweight Championship Unification bout as UFC Heavyweight Champion Cain Velasquez returns from a long injury layoff to face Interim UFC Heavyweight Champion Fabricio Werdum. The semi-main event is a long-awaited lightweight bout between former Strikeforce champion Gilbert Melendez and former Bellator champion Eddie Alvarez. Also on the main card is a middleweight bout between former TUF winner Kelvin Gastelum and former UFC title challenger and former Strikeforce champion Nate Marquardt.

A previously scheduled bout between Albert Tumenov and Andrew Todhunter was cancelled late Thursday night after Todhunter, who was coming into the fight on very short notice, was deemed medically unable to compete.

MAIN CARD (PPV- 10 PM ET/7 PM PT):

Cain Velasquez (242) vs. Fabricio Werdum (236)
Gilbert Melendez (156) vs. Eddie Alvarez (156)
Kelvin Gastelum (185) vs. Nate Marquardt (184)
Yair Rodriguez (145) vs. Charles Rosa (145)
Tecia Torres (114) vs. Angela Hill (115)

PRELIMINARY CARD (FX- 8 PM ET/5 PM PT):

Henry Cejudo (125) vs. Chico Camus (126)
Efrain Escudero (156) vs. Drew Dober (155)
Alejandro Perez (136) vs. Patrick Williams (136)
Francisco Trevino (154) vs. Johnny Case (155)

PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC FIGHT PASS- 7 PM ET/4 PM PT):

Augusto Montano (170) vs. Cathal Pendred (170)
Gabriel Benitez (145) vs. Clay Collard (146)

Andrew Todhunter, a late replacement fighter who was set to face Albert Tumenov tomorrow night in Mexco City, reportedly passed out in trying to lose weight for today’s weigh-ins.

UFC.com’s Thomas Gerbasi reported that Todhunter, set to make his UFC debut, was cutting weight when he passed out. Doctors hooked him up to an IV to replenish the lost water weight and it was ruled that due to passing out, he would not be allowed to fight. Todhunter’s previous fight was a boxing match on 5/15, where he weighed in at 200 pounds. This was a fight where he needed to get to 171 pounds. Tumenov will receive his show money for tomorrow. 

Because of the timeframe, there will be no replacement and the show will now begin at 7 PM EST on Fight Pass instead of 6:30 PM EST.

by Jason Abrams

Cardio
Nobody has cardio like Cain Velasquez. The man is like a self-winding watch – as long as he’s moving he keeps ticking. He went five grueling rounds twice with one of the most punishing knockout artists on the planet in Junior dos Santos. The only time he didn’t either finish an opponent or win a decision was in his first match with dos Santos when he was caught in the first round by a devastating overhand right. That had nothing to do with cardio and everything to do with getting knocked the f****d out!

Werdum’s cardio is not in question but it is not a hallmark of his MMA career as it is Velasquez’s. The very nature of Werdum’s style is a ground attack which is a different speed and tempo than stand-up where we have never witnessed Velasquez wilt when launching bombs and catching rockets in return.
EDGE: Velasquez

Striking
You can talk all day long about how far Werdum’s striking has come but it will never be on par with the most prolific KO artist in all of MMA.  Cain Velasquez not only wields bone-crushing power but has the piston-like jab of a boxer. He will reel off endless combinations because his world-class cardio permits it. You will typically see Velasquez parry with a jab and then reach for every tool in the shed whether it be hard rights, uppercuts, hooks or elbows. Velasquez has the unique ability as a heavyweight to bring a Gatling gun attack with the power of a rocket launcher.
EDGE: Velazquez

Grappling
The immediate knee-jerk reaction would put this skill in Werdum’s column but not so fast. Velasquez is a former D-1 wrestler and holds a black belt in BJJ under Leandro Viera but his ground game is often overlooked due to his fierce striking ability. Oftentimes he ragdolls his opponents to the canvas after a withering standup attack softens them up for the kill. Velasquez can maintain a dominant top position while continuing his relentless ground-and-pound which often spells doom for his opponents.

Fabricio Werdum is not a wrestler per se but he is the gold standard when it comes to BJJ. Werdum is a BJJ World Champion while holding black belts in Judo and Muay Thai. He has won numerous international events in submission grappling and is lethal when the fight hits the mat.  That being said if we are judging this strictly on the numbers we can see that Velasquez averages 5.28 takedowns per fight while Werdum averages a mere 1.83. The champion’s takedowns defended is 88.89 percent versus only 36.67 percent for Werdum.
EDGE: Velasquez

Submissions
We won’t even try to make a case for Cain Velasquez in this category. Even the most proficient mat tactician would pale compared to Werdum. UFC odds makers know that the champion has no submissions on his record while Werdum has won nine of his 19 fights in this manner. Whether Werdum is in the guard or on top, his submission skills are sublime and he can end the fight from any angle, anytime and anywhere. Velasquez would be wise to avoid the dragon’s lair and be seduced into proving he is the superior ground fighter. Werdum is a beast on the mat.
EDGE: Werdum

Gambling best odds for the fight:

Total Rounds
Over     2½    -130 (best line 5Dimes)
Under   2½    +115 (best line Bookmaker)

Fight is a Draw
Yes  +15000 (best line 5Dimes)
No    -45000 (best line 5Dimes)

Fight to end within the 1st min of 1st Round
Yes   +1400
No   -10000

Fight Goes 5 Round Distance
Yes  +160 (best line 5Dimes)
No   -195 (best line 5Dimes)

Velasquez wins Inside Distance
Yes-150
No   +120

Werdum wins Inside Distance
Yes   +505
No    -810

Fight won by Decision 
Yes  +188 (best line Ladbrokes)
No   -275 (best line Ladbrokes)

Velasquez wins by Decision 
Yes  +225 (best line 888sport)
No   -278 (best line 5Dimes)

Werdum wins by Decision 
Yes  +1000 (best line SportsInteraction)
No   -1705 (best line 5Dimes)

Fight won by Submission 
Yes  +500 (best line Ladbrokes)
No   

Velasquez wins by Submission 
Yes  +1400 (best line SportsInteraction)
No   -1851 (best line 5Dimes)

Werdum wins by Submission 
Yes  +925 (best line 5Dimes)
No   -1875 (best line 5Dimes)

Fight won by KO, TKO, DQ
Yes  -163 (best line Ladbrokes)
No   

Velasquez wins by KO, TKO, DQ
Yes  -110 (best line 5Dimes)
No   -130 (best line 5Dimes)

Werdum wins by KO, TKO, DQ 
Yes  +1100 (best line Ladbrokes)
No   -2075 (best line 5Dimes)

Double Chance
KO / TKO or Decision    -900
KO / TKO or Submission  -275
Decision or Submission  +120

Velasquez wins by Unanimous Decision
Yes  +305 (best line 5Dimes)
No   -425 (best line 5Dimes)

Werdum wins by Unanimous Decision
Yes  +1305 (best line 5Dimes)
No   -3045 (best line 5Dimes)

Total Rounds
Over 1½     -278
Under 1½  +200
Over 2½     -150
Under 2½ ​ +110
Over 3½    +100
Under 3½  ​-134
Over 4½    +140
Under 4½ ​  -190

Velasquez wins by Split / Majority Decision
Yes   +838 (best line 5Dimes)
No    -1738 (best line 5Dimes)

Werdum wins by Split / Majority Decision
Yes   +1875 (best line 5Dimes)
No    -5625 (best line 5Dimes)

Total Rounds
Fight starts round 5        +1100 (best line Ladbrokes)
Fight won’t start round 5  +750 (best line Ladbrokes)
Fight starts round 4           -109 (best line 5Dimes)
Fight won’t start round 4  +500 (best line Ladbrokes)
Fight starts round 3           -161 (best line 5Dimes)
Fight won’t start round 3  +333 (best line Ladbrokes)
Fight starts round 2           -375 (best line 5Dimes)
Fight won’t start round 2  +285 (best line 5Dimes)

Round – Betting
Velasquez in round 1 +350 (Best line SportsInteraction)
Velasquez in round 2 +500 (best line SportsInteraction)
Velasquez in round 3 +800 (best line 888sport)
Velasquez in round 4 +1200 (best line SportsInteraction)
Velasquez in round 5 +1600 (best line 888sport)

Round – Betting
Werdum in round 1  +1400 (best line 888sport)
Werdum in round 2  +2000 (best line 888sport)
Werdum in round 3  +2500 (best line 888sport)
Werdum in round 4  +3300 (best line Ladbrokes)
Werdum in round 5  +4000 (best line Ladbrokes)

By Jason Abrams

Below is the breakdown for the two fighters for each of the categories from SportsbookReview.com. 

Cardio
Nobody has cardio like Cain Velasquez. The man is like a self-winding watch – as long as he’s moving he keeps ticking. He went five grueling rounds twice with one of the most punishing knockout artists on the planet in Junior dos Santos. The only time he didn’t either finish an opponent or win a decision was in his first match with dos Santos when he was caught in the first round by a devastating overhand right. That had nothing to do with cardio and everything to do with getting knocked the f****d out!

Werdum’s cardio is not in question but it is not a hallmark of his MMA career as it is Velasquez’s. The very nature of Werdum’s style is a ground attack which is a different speed and tempo than stand-up where we have never witnessed Velasquez wilt when launching bombs and catching rockets in return.
EDGE: Velasquez

Striking
You can talk all day long about how far Werdum’s striking has come but it will never be on par with the most prolific KO artist in all of MMA.  Cain Velasquez not only wields bone-crushing power but has the piston-like jab of a boxer. He will reel off endless combinations because his world-class cardio permits it. You will typically see Velasquez parry with a jab and then reach for every tool in the shed whether it be hard rights, uppercuts, hooks or elbows. Velasquez has the unique ability as a heavyweight to bring a Gatling gun attack with the power of a rocket launcher.
EDGE: Velazquez

Grappling
The immediate knee-jerk reaction would put this skill in Werdum’s column but not so fast. Velasquez is a former D-1 wrestler and holds a black belt in BJJ under Leandro Viera but his ground game is often overlooked due to his fierce striking ability. Oftentimes he ragdolls his opponents to the canvas after a withering standup attack softens them up for the kill. Velasquez can maintain a dominant top position while continuing his relentless ground-and-pound which often spells doom for his opponents.

Fabricio Werdum is not a wrestler per se but he is the gold standard when it comes to BJJ. Werdum is a BJJ World Champion while holding black belts in Judo and Muay Thai. He has won numerous international events in submission grappling and is lethal when the fight hits the mat.  That being said if we are judging this strictly on the numbers we can see that Velasquez averages 5.28 takedowns per fight while Werdum averages a mere 1.83. The champion’s takedowns defended is 88.89 percent versus only 36.67 percent for Werdum.
EDGE: Velasquez

Submissions
We won’t even try to make a case for Cain Velasquez in this category. Even the most proficient mat tactician would pale compared to Werdum. UFC odds makers know that the champion has no submissions on his record while Werdum has won nine of his 19 fights in this manner. Whether Werdum is in the guard or on top, his submission skills are sublime and he can end the fight from any angle, anytime and anywhere. Velasquez would be wise to avoid the dragon’s lair and be seduced into proving he is the superior ground fighter. Werdum is a beast on the mat.
EDGE: Werdum